Aug 07, 2020
A temporary fall in planet-warming emissions and pollutants triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will have a "negligible" effect on reining in the climate crisis, according to a study published Friday that underscores the need for a "green stimulus recovery" to fundamentally transform carbon-based economies.
For the study, published in Nature Climate Change, researchers looked at emissions--CO2 and nine others including methane and nitrous oxides--in 123 countries from February to June 2020. The international team estimated emissions fell roughly between 10%-30% globally, with peak emission reductions probably occurring mid-April.
But the blip will do little to address runaway warming and its impacts. The "direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible," the researchers wrote.
Study lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at Britain's University of Leeds, explained at The Conversation Friday:
even if some lockdown measures stay in place for the best part of two years, global temperatures will still only be 0.01degC lower than if we followed an emission pathway where the pandemic never happened.
So rather than helping to tackle climate change, lockdown has left us potentially picking up where we left off. It shows that, even if we lived in a world where the social and economic impacts of lockdown were acceptable, we still need far more serious measures to make a difference--we need structural change.
There's a clear opportunity to change course and right the path towards meeting a key limit of the Paris climate agreement, the researchers said.
While a fossil fuel-based recovery puts the world on a trajectory "to exceed 1.5 degC above pre-industrial limit by 2050," Forster and fellow researchers found that "choosing a pathway with strong green stimulus assumptions, including climate policy measures, has a good chance of keeping global temperature change above pre-industrial within the 1.5deg C limit, saving around 0.3deg C of future warming by 2050."
Study co-author Corinne Le Quere from the University of East Anglia pointed to "government responses [that] could be a turning point if they focus on a green recovery, helping to avoid severe impacts from climate change."
Policymakers are thus looking at a fork in the road--and one of the paths is on fire.
"The choices made now could give us a strong chance of avoiding 0.3@C of additional warming by mid-century, halving the expected warming under current policies. This could mean the difference between success and failure when it comes to avoiding dangerous climate change," Forster said in a statement.
"The study also highlights the opportunities in lowering traffic pollution by encouraging low emissions vehicles, public transport, and cycle lanes," Forster added. "The better air quality will immediately have important health effects--and it will immediately start cooling the climate."
The planning that's happening right now as world leaders hammer out stimulus agreements and progressive activists issue calls to "build back better," said study co-author Joeri Rogelj from the Grantham Institute--Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, will have reverberations for years to come.
"Both sobering and hopeful, the flash crash in global emissions due to lockdown measures will have no measurable impact on global temperatures by 2030, but the decisions we make this year about how to recover from this crisis can put us on a solid track to meet the Paris Agreement," said Rogelj.
"Out of this tragedy comes an opportunity," he said, "but unless it is seized a more polluting next decade is not excluded."
No one is coming to save us. Join with us.
The world is a pretty dark place right now. Economic inequality off the charts. The climate emergency. Supreme Court corruption in the U.S. and corporate capture worldwide. Democracy in many nations coming apart at the seams. Fascism threatens. It’s enough to make you wish for some powerful being to come along and save us. But the truth is this: no heroes are coming to save us. The only path to real and progressive change is when well-informed, well-intentioned people—fed up with being kicked around by the rich, the powerful, and the wicked—get organized and fight for the better world we all deserve. That’s why we created Common Dreams. We cover the issues that corporate media never will and lift up voices others would rather keep silent. But this people-powered media model can only survive with the support of readers like you. Can you join with us and donate right now to Common Dreams? |
Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.
A temporary fall in planet-warming emissions and pollutants triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will have a "negligible" effect on reining in the climate crisis, according to a study published Friday that underscores the need for a "green stimulus recovery" to fundamentally transform carbon-based economies.
For the study, published in Nature Climate Change, researchers looked at emissions--CO2 and nine others including methane and nitrous oxides--in 123 countries from February to June 2020. The international team estimated emissions fell roughly between 10%-30% globally, with peak emission reductions probably occurring mid-April.
But the blip will do little to address runaway warming and its impacts. The "direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible," the researchers wrote.
Study lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at Britain's University of Leeds, explained at The Conversation Friday:
even if some lockdown measures stay in place for the best part of two years, global temperatures will still only be 0.01degC lower than if we followed an emission pathway where the pandemic never happened.
So rather than helping to tackle climate change, lockdown has left us potentially picking up where we left off. It shows that, even if we lived in a world where the social and economic impacts of lockdown were acceptable, we still need far more serious measures to make a difference--we need structural change.
There's a clear opportunity to change course and right the path towards meeting a key limit of the Paris climate agreement, the researchers said.
While a fossil fuel-based recovery puts the world on a trajectory "to exceed 1.5 degC above pre-industrial limit by 2050," Forster and fellow researchers found that "choosing a pathway with strong green stimulus assumptions, including climate policy measures, has a good chance of keeping global temperature change above pre-industrial within the 1.5deg C limit, saving around 0.3deg C of future warming by 2050."
Study co-author Corinne Le Quere from the University of East Anglia pointed to "government responses [that] could be a turning point if they focus on a green recovery, helping to avoid severe impacts from climate change."
Policymakers are thus looking at a fork in the road--and one of the paths is on fire.
"The choices made now could give us a strong chance of avoiding 0.3@C of additional warming by mid-century, halving the expected warming under current policies. This could mean the difference between success and failure when it comes to avoiding dangerous climate change," Forster said in a statement.
"The study also highlights the opportunities in lowering traffic pollution by encouraging low emissions vehicles, public transport, and cycle lanes," Forster added. "The better air quality will immediately have important health effects--and it will immediately start cooling the climate."
The planning that's happening right now as world leaders hammer out stimulus agreements and progressive activists issue calls to "build back better," said study co-author Joeri Rogelj from the Grantham Institute--Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, will have reverberations for years to come.
"Both sobering and hopeful, the flash crash in global emissions due to lockdown measures will have no measurable impact on global temperatures by 2030, but the decisions we make this year about how to recover from this crisis can put us on a solid track to meet the Paris Agreement," said Rogelj.
"Out of this tragedy comes an opportunity," he said, "but unless it is seized a more polluting next decade is not excluded."
A temporary fall in planet-warming emissions and pollutants triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will have a "negligible" effect on reining in the climate crisis, according to a study published Friday that underscores the need for a "green stimulus recovery" to fundamentally transform carbon-based economies.
For the study, published in Nature Climate Change, researchers looked at emissions--CO2 and nine others including methane and nitrous oxides--in 123 countries from February to June 2020. The international team estimated emissions fell roughly between 10%-30% globally, with peak emission reductions probably occurring mid-April.
But the blip will do little to address runaway warming and its impacts. The "direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible," the researchers wrote.
Study lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at Britain's University of Leeds, explained at The Conversation Friday:
even if some lockdown measures stay in place for the best part of two years, global temperatures will still only be 0.01degC lower than if we followed an emission pathway where the pandemic never happened.
So rather than helping to tackle climate change, lockdown has left us potentially picking up where we left off. It shows that, even if we lived in a world where the social and economic impacts of lockdown were acceptable, we still need far more serious measures to make a difference--we need structural change.
There's a clear opportunity to change course and right the path towards meeting a key limit of the Paris climate agreement, the researchers said.
While a fossil fuel-based recovery puts the world on a trajectory "to exceed 1.5 degC above pre-industrial limit by 2050," Forster and fellow researchers found that "choosing a pathway with strong green stimulus assumptions, including climate policy measures, has a good chance of keeping global temperature change above pre-industrial within the 1.5deg C limit, saving around 0.3deg C of future warming by 2050."
Study co-author Corinne Le Quere from the University of East Anglia pointed to "government responses [that] could be a turning point if they focus on a green recovery, helping to avoid severe impacts from climate change."
Policymakers are thus looking at a fork in the road--and one of the paths is on fire.
"The choices made now could give us a strong chance of avoiding 0.3@C of additional warming by mid-century, halving the expected warming under current policies. This could mean the difference between success and failure when it comes to avoiding dangerous climate change," Forster said in a statement.
"The study also highlights the opportunities in lowering traffic pollution by encouraging low emissions vehicles, public transport, and cycle lanes," Forster added. "The better air quality will immediately have important health effects--and it will immediately start cooling the climate."
The planning that's happening right now as world leaders hammer out stimulus agreements and progressive activists issue calls to "build back better," said study co-author Joeri Rogelj from the Grantham Institute--Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, will have reverberations for years to come.
"Both sobering and hopeful, the flash crash in global emissions due to lockdown measures will have no measurable impact on global temperatures by 2030, but the decisions we make this year about how to recover from this crisis can put us on a solid track to meet the Paris Agreement," said Rogelj.
"Out of this tragedy comes an opportunity," he said, "but unless it is seized a more polluting next decade is not excluded."
We've had enough. The 1% own and operate the corporate media. They are doing everything they can to defend the status quo, squash dissent and protect the wealthy and the powerful. The Common Dreams media model is different. We cover the news that matters to the 99%. Our mission? To inform. To inspire. To ignite change for the common good. How? Nonprofit. Independent. Reader-supported. Free to read. Free to republish. Free to share. With no advertising. No paywalls. No selling of your data. Thousands of small donations fund our newsroom and allow us to continue publishing. Can you chip in? We can't do it without you. Thank you.