Analysis Finds Trump Tariffs Will Cost Average US Family $1,600 or More Per Year

As U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs took effect on Tuesday, Congressman Don Beyer released a Joint Economic Committee report showing that the policies could cost the average working-class family in the United States at least $1,600 annually.

"The tariffs Trump just imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China will raise costs by up to $2,000 per year for an average American family," Beyer (D-Va.) said in a statement. "The trade war Trump is igniting will weaken our economy and cause chaos in our marketplace as Americans pay the cost in the form of higher prices on everyday items."

Dean Baker, co-founder and senior economist of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, warns that Trump's tariffs could cost families even more than the estimates from Beyer's report, which cites figures from the Budget Lab at Yale University.

"While our report does not touch on this, these tariffs will also lead to retaliation that badly harms American producers," Beyer said. "And they will fail to achieve any of the pretextual objectives Trump has stated for imposing them. Less than two months into his term, Trump is running the economy into the ground and raising a real and growing risk of a recession."

Ignoring experts' warnings about impacts on consumers and the economy, Trump on Tuesday doubled his previous tariff for Chinese imports to 20% and—after a monthlong delay—hit Canadian and Mexican imports with 25% tariffs. As The Associated Pressreported, the moves sparked "swift retaliation" from "America's three biggest trading partners."

Leaders from those countries had warned of their responses if Trump followed through on his threats. There was also evidence of what would happen from the tariffs that the president imposed on China during his first term. At the time, Beyer's report notes, "U.S. importers and consumers paid almost entirely for Trump's tariffs through higher prices."

Trump has recently claimed that his plan will force production in the United States, but the report points out that the new "tariffs also impact the price of domestically produced goods by causing U.S. producers to raise prices if their supply chain relies on imported raw materials subject to the tariffs."

Using figures released Monday by the Budget Lab, Beyer's report warns that this time:

• Electronics, like computers, phones, and televisions, will see overall prices rise by nearly 11%;
• Clothing prices are expected to also rise by 7.5%;
• The price of cars, car parts, and other motor vehicles are expected to increase by over 6%;
• Oil will also rise by 1.7% and petroleum and coal products will rise by 1.6%, making it more expensive for families to fill up their gas tanks and heat their homes;
• And at a time when a trip to the grocery store is already squeezing household budgets, grocery prices will jump under these tariffs, with fresh produce prices rising by nearly 3%, rice prices increasing by 4.4%, and food prices overall rising by nearly 2%.

"In addition to harming the national economy, Trump's tariff policies will significantly impact state and local economies," the report says. "In fact, small counties in the South and Midwest tend to have economies that are most reliant on international trade. Those states that are heavily dependent on trade for statewide business may also be particularly impacted."

Despite the anticipated impacts of the tariffs that Trump has already imposed, he is expected to go even further, targeting the European Union and beyond. The Tax Policy Center warned in October that "a 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, one of many import tax ideas floated by... Trump, would increase household taxes by an average of nearly $3,000 in 2025."

Beyer—who serves on the panel behind the report and the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade—noted Tuesday that "Republicans in Congress could stop this at any time by passing legislation I and others have offered to rein in Trump's abuses of tariff authorities, but they appear content to help Trump raise prices and risk economic disaster."

Separately, Beyer and every other Democrat on the subcommittee released a joint statement stressing that "Americans simply cannot afford to be caught in endless trade wars" and that they "are united in rejecting these irresponsible tariffs designed to increase revenue for more tax cuts for the ultrawealthy."

Republicans control not only the White House but also both chambers of Congress, and GOP House members last month advanced a budget resolution that would fund an extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts for the rich by slashing health and food assistance programs that help millions of working-class Americans.

Beyer and his subcommittee colleagues called on House Republicans "to work with us to reassert Congress' role in setting strategic, stable trade policies and to invest in the American economy, instead of abdicating their responsibilities to President Trump and Elon Musk," the billionaire leading the administration's effort to gut the federal government.