With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in just over a month, green groups on Thursday greeted President Joe Biden's new climate goal with a blunt assessment of the likelihood of significantly slashing plant-heating fossil fuel emissions in the coming years.
Under Trump, said several advocates, meeting the goal set by Biden will take far-reaching action by state and local governments—as the incoming Republican president, who has dismissed the climate crisis as a "scam" and a "hoax," is expected to ramp up emissions with his plans to repeal key federal regulations.
Biden's announcement on Thursday pertained to the country's nationally determined contribution (NDC), which is required by the 2015 Paris climate agreement—a pact Trump has said the U.S. will exit after he takes office, as it did during his first term. The government's new climate target, Biden said, is a 61-66% emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2035.
The administration anticipates methane reductions of at least 35% from 2005 levels in 2035—a key component of achieving the NDC, as methane is more than 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.
The target is a significant step up from the one set in 2021, when Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030.
But Oil Change International said the goal set on Thursday underscores the Biden administration's overall approach to emissions reductions: a "failed strategy of counting on clean energy to displace fossil fuels without simultaneous efforts to stop fossil fuels," as U.S. campaign manager Collin Rees said.
In a video address, Biden said his efforts to invest billions of dollars into renewable energy technology and to regulate fossil fuel emissions from some power plants and other sources have amounted to "the boldest climate agenda in American history."
But by approving fossil fuel infrastructure like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, Biden has angered groups that have demanded the U.S. act on climate experts' warnings that continued oil and gas extraction has no place on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
"Under Biden, even as clean energy surged, America became the world's planet wrecker-in-chief, planning the largest oil and gas expansion of any country over the next decade," said Rees. "As history's largest polluter and second-biggest current emitter, the U.S. has a unique responsibility to lead on climate action. This NDC fails to deliver the bold commitments needed to halt America's booming oil and gas expansion and support vulnerable Global South nations bearing the brunt of a crisis they didn't cause."
Oil Change International applauded the president's acknowledgment that fossil fuels must be phased out—but emphasized that the NDC "doesn't commit to doing it."
The Rhodium Group estimated in a study this week that Biden's current climate policies could achieve a 38-56% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2035.
Last year, emissions were reduced about 17% from 2005 levels, but no significant reduction is expected this year because rising electricity demand has offset renewable energy progress, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But if Trump rolls back a majority of Biden's policies, like methane regulations unveiled earlier this year and subsidies and tax incentives for clean energy included in the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. may only be able to reduce its emissions by 24-40% by 2030.
"As history's largest polluter and second-biggest current emitter, the U.S. has a unique responsibility to lead on climate action."
The new percentage reduction goal in the new NDC was "good to see," said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity.
"But it'll be up to states and other national leaders to defy Trump and move us quickly away from planet-heating fossil fuels," said Su. "While Biden's pledge rightly reiterates the need to get off dirty energy, the real work lies in rooting out the corrupting political influence of oil, gas, and utilities. As climate deniers and corporate grifters sleaze into the White House, leaders at every level who actually care about the planet will have to fight twice as hard to hold polluters accountable for the economic and environmental havoc they're wreaking around the globe."
The U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of 24 governors whose states represent 57% of the U.S. economy and 54% of the population, pledged on Thursday to work together to achieve the NDC announced by Biden.
The alliance—whose governors represent states including California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota—said it has already "reduced its collective net greenhouse gas emissions by 19% between 2005 and 2022, while increasing collective GDP by 30%, and is on track to meet its near-term climate goal by reducing collective greenhouse gas emissions 26% below 2005 levels by 2025."
"The coalition's states and territories are collectively employing more workers in the clean energy sector, achieving lower levels of dangerous air pollutants, and preparing more effectively for climate impacts than the rest of the country," said the alliance.
U.S. Climate Alliance co-chair Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, said the NDC "will serve as our North Star, guiding us in the years to come and keeping America on track toward a cleaner, safer future."
Rachel Cleetus, policy director and lead economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said that though Biden's new NDC falls short "of what the science requires," it will also provide "an important benchmark to propel further climate action by cities, states, Tribal nations, and businesses in the years ahead."
"The strengthened U.S. NDC announced today by the Biden administration underscores that working together to collectively address climate change is in the best interest of the United States and the world," said Cleetus. "Cutting fossil fuel pollution sharply and building a thriving economy powered by clean energy is good for national prosperity and people's health and pocketbooks. It's encouraging to see the NDC also call for measures to address the full breadth and scope of heat-trapping emissions, including potent methane, across the economy."
But Cleetus emphasized that "much work remains to be done by world leaders and policymakers, especially if President-elect Trump—who seems hellbent on dismantling widely popular clean energy policies and boosting fossil fuel company profits—once again exits the Paris climate agreement."
"Today marks one of many important milestones on the path toward keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach for the betterment of current and future generations," she said.
Rees called on Biden to take other specific steps to cement his climate legacy and reduce U.S. emissions, including rejecting pending liquefied natural gas exports, shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline, and ending financing for international fossil fuel projects.
"With Trump looming, Biden is squandering his last chance to lock in ambitious commitments to stop the massive growth of oil and gas production—commitments that could guide future federal action and inspire immediate state and local initiatives," said Rees. "The clock is ticking—for the Biden administration and our planet."
