Fears of 'Disastrous' War Grow as Iran Weighs Retaliation for Israel Consulate Attack

A reportedly imminent Iranian response to Israel's deadly bombing of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital earlier this month is heightening fears of a devastating regional conflict in which the United States—Israel's top ally and arms supplier—could become directly involved.

The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning on Thursday and restricted its employees' travel ahead of a possible Iranian response as soon as Friday. U.S. officials, according toPolitico, have assessed that "Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond."

U.S. President Joe Biden and top administration officials have in recent days stressed their "ironclad" commitment to defending Israel in the case of an Iranian reprisal, despite widespread condemnation of Israel's consulate attack as a significant escalation and flagrant violation of international law.

The attack killed more than a dozen people, including diplomats and a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander.

"When the Israeli regime completely violates the immunity of individuals and diplomatic places in violation of international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense is a necessity," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a statement Thursday.

Two unnamed U.S. officials toldCBS News that Iran's response could "include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country." Biden administration officials have asked China and other nations to urge Iran not to respond to the consulate attack.

The Israeli government, which is currently waging a catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip, signaled it would respond forcefully to any Iranian retaliation, raising the possibility of direct U.S. involvement. Axiosreported that the senior U.S. military commander in charge of the Middle East visited Israel Thursday to "coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies."

"Whoever harms us, we will harm them," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech Thursday against a backdrop of U.S.-made F-15 fighter jets.

"The Israeli government appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the U.S. into joining the fight."

While war hawks in the U.S. have used the surge in tensions to agitate for a direct American-Israeli attack on Iran, advocacy groups and anti-war commentators have warned against any additional escalation, fearing the eruption of all-out military conflict in the Middle East.

"A regional war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran would be disastrous for U.S. interests, the people of Iran, and the security of the region as a whole," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said earlier this week. "President Biden must do far more to avert this crisis before off-ramps close."

Responsible Statecraft columnist Daniel Larison wrote Friday that with its unwavering support for the Netanyahu government, the Biden administration is "moving in the wrong direction."

"The U.S. ought to be distancing itself from Israel's illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions," Larison wrote. "Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed."

"The Israeli government appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the U.S. into joining the fight," Larison added. "The president has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap."