At 89 Seconds to Midnight, Doomsday Clock Now 'Closest It Has Ever Been to Catastrophe'

Highlighting the threat posed by nuclear weapons, the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency, the potential misuse of biological science, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on Tuesday moved the Doomsday Clock "from 90 seconds to 89 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to catastrophe."

The Bulletin was founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists involved with the Manhattan Project. The clock was launched two years later, as a symbol of how close the world is to apocalypse due to nuclear arms. The Science and Security Board now considers various threats with its annual updates.

"The purpose of the Doomsday Clock is to start a global conversation about the very real existential threats that keep the world's top scientists awake at night," explained Daniel Holz, a University of Chicago professor who chairs the board. "National leaders must commence discussions about these global risks before it's too late. Reflecting on these life-and-death issues and starting a dialogue are the first steps to turning back the clock and moving away from midnight."

The clock announcement came just over a week after the return of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump, whose country has a sizable nuclear arsenal.

"Blindly continuing on the current path is a form of madness."

"Long-standing concerns about nuclear weapons—involving the modernization and expansion of arsenals in all nuclear weapons
countries, the build-up of new capabilities, the risks of inadvertent or deliberate nuclear use, the loss of arms control agreements, and the possibility of nuclear proliferation to new countries—continued or were amplified in 2024," notesThe Bulletin's statement on the clock. "The outgoing Biden administration showed little willingness or capacity to pursue new efforts in these areas, and it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will seize the initiative."

The other eight nations with nuclear weapons are China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the United Kingdom. The statement points out that "against the backdrop of Russia's continuing war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended compliance with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Russia's Duma voted to withdraw Moscow's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty."

While the United States and Russia have the most nukes, "China's nuclear arsenal has grown to about 600 warheads, and China may also now be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime," the statement says. Additionally, "Iran continues to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium" and "Kim Jong Un recently declared his goal was to 'exponentially expand' North Korea's nuclear arsenal in coming years."

Along with detailing "extremely dangerous trends" on the nuclear front, the statement spotlights "devastating impacts and insufficient progress" in terms of climate. As board member and Princeton University professor emeritus Robert Socolow summarized Tuesday: "2024 was the hottest year on record. Extreme weather and other climate events—floods, tropical cyclones, extreme heat, drought, and wildfires—devastated societies, rich and poor, as well as ecosystems around the world."

"Yet the global greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change continued to rise. And investments to adapt to climate change and cut fossil fuel emissions were way below what is needed to avoid the worst impacts," he added. "There were formidable policy headwinds globally: Particularly worrisome, electoral campaigns showed climate change to be a low priority in the United States and many other countries."

The board's statement also lays out "daunting biological threats," including emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, proliferation of high-containment laboratories, artificial intelligence involvement in research and development, and weapons programs.

Artificial intelligence also features prominently in the statement's section on "disruptive technologies," which warns that "increasing chaos, disorder, and dysfunction in the world's information ecosystem threaten society's capacity to address difficult challenges, and it is clear that AI has great potential to accelerate these processes of information corruption."

The tech section also states that "the growing presence of hypersonic weapons in contested regional theaters substantially increases the risk of escalation," and "there is a growing belligerence among the United States, Russia, and China in space."

Those three countries, the statement stresses, "have the collective power to destroy civilization," so they also "have the prime responsibility to pull the world back from the brink, and they can do so if their leaders seriously commence good-faith discussions about the global threats outlined here."

"Blindly continuing on the current path is a form of madness," the document declares. "It is 89 seconds to midnight."

In anticipation of the clock update, Dr. Robert Dodge from Physicians for Social Responsibility and nuclear activist Talia Wilcox pointed to some recent progress in a Tuesday opinion piece for Common Dreams, writing that "there is great hope arising from the international community as the fourth anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons."

"The timing of this Doomsday Clock unveiling could not be more critical," the pair wrote, acknowledging Trump's expressions of "concern about the existential consequences of nuclear war throughout his public life" and urging him to seize "one last chance to make the ultimate deal for the future of humanity."

Meanwhile, in a Monday piece for Common Dreams, Danaka Katovich, CodePink's national co-director, argued that "doom isn't good enough to get us to where we need to go."

"At CodePink, we've created a Peace Clock to give us ways not to just move away from doom, but to bring us closer to the kind of world we want to see," she explained. "It's something that's been within our sight a thousand times. We have to sprint toward it."