Right-Wing Think Tank Finds Trump Plans Would Wreck Social Security

Republican nominee Donald Trump's claim that he wants to "fight for and protect Social Security" was called into further question Monday after a conservative think tank released an analysis projecting that the former president's economic proposals and mass deportation plan would significantly damage the New Deal program's finances.

The new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) specifically focuses on Trump's proposals to end taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime pay; implement sweeping tariffs on imports; and launch what he's described as the "largest domestic deportation operation in American history."

The think tank projected that, if enacted, Trump's agenda would "increase Social Security's 10-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillionthrough FY 2035" and "lead to a 33% across-the-board benefit cut in 2035, up from the 23% [the Congressional Budget Office] projects under current law."

Trump's plans would also "increase Social Security's annual shortfall by roughly 50% in FY 2035" and "advance insolvency by three years, from FY 2034 to FY 2031."

"Trump has said he would close Social Security's long-term shortfall by increasing drilling for oil and natural gas and by growing the economy," the analysis notes. "However, we've shown that increased energy exploration is unlikely to have a meaningful effect on Social Security—even if the gains were deposited into the trust fund. We've also shown that it would require unrealistically fast economic growth to close Social Security's existing long-term funding gap."

Social Security Works (SSW), a progressive advocacy group that supports expanding the New Deal program, highlighted CRFB's analysis in a social media post on Monday, writing, "Donald Trump plans to slash $2.3 TRILLION from Social Security while giving massive tax handouts to Wall Street billionaires." (The Social Security Works Political Action Committee has endorsed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris for the presidency.)

Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare—which endorsed Harris in July—said it is "not surprising that Donald Trump's ill-conceived plans would devastate the financial health of Social Security and lead to huge benefit cuts."

"Trump's plans are of a piece with his overall recklessness with Social Security. He suspended the payroll tax that funds the program during Covid—and hoped it would be eliminated," said Richtman. "His White House budgets would have slashed Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) by billions of dollars. He said earlier this year that he was 'open' to 'cutting entitlements,' then tried to walk it back. He once called Social Security a 'Ponzi Scheme.' Time and again, Trump has chosen political expediency without considering—or caring about—the consequences. Despite his posturing, Donald Trump is no friend to Social Security or American seniors."

In a footnote of its analysis, CRFB states that Harris' proposals thus far "would not have large effects on Social Security trust fund solvency."

The Harris campaign quickly seized on CRFB's findings. Joseph Costello, a spokesperson for the Harris campaign, said in a statement Monday that "Donald Trump's agenda poses an imminent threat to Social Security, and seniors could have their benefits cut by a third."

"This is yet another reason that Americans simply cannot afford the risk of another Trump term, where he would pursue unchecked power to use his Project 2025 agenda to hurt the American people," said Costello. "Vice President Harris is committed to protecting Social Security benefits and is the only candidate who will actually fight for seniors, not just pay them lip service on the campaign trail."

According to the latest report from Social Security's Board of Trustees, the program is currently positioned to fully pay all benefits and administrative costs until 2035. Thereafter, even if Congress does nothing to shore up the program, it would be able to pay 83% of scheduled benefits.

To bring in more revenue and ensure Social Security's solvency through the end of the century, progressives in Congress have called for raising or scrapping the payroll tax cap, which allows the rich to stop contributing to the program just weeks into each year while ordinary Americans pay in year-round.

The Harris campaign has broadly signaled support for that approach, saying in its economic policy platform that the Democratic nominee would "shore up Social Security and Medicare so that these essential programs will stay solvent in the long run by making corporations and the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share in taxes."

This story has been updated to include comment from the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.