Report Details Best Path Forward to End Political Crisis in Venezuela

A report released Tuesday by a U.S.-based think tank calls on the Biden administration to support a regional effort to reach a negotiated solution to Venezuela's dangerous political crisis as the country's president and right-wing opposition continue to declare themselves the rightful winners of last month's election.

The new analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) argues that Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia's attempt at mediation and dialogue—not additional economy-crushing sanctions by the U.S. and other Western nations—represents "the best opportunity for bringing about a peaceful resolution of the current crisis."

U.S. sanctions, the report notes, "have taken the lives of tens of thousands of Venezuelans and fueled the migration of millions more." Other "failed policies" include "military coup attempts, such as those that U.S. administrations supported in 2002 and 2019," the report adds.

"Recognizing a parallel government, or imposing more sanctions on Venezuela, will only make the crisis much more difficult to resolve; in fact, these policies helped create the current crisis," CEPR said.

The report comes less than two weeks after the U.S. State Department formally recognized Edmundo González, Venezuela's opposition candidate, as the winner of last month's presidential election over incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, who says he prevailed in the contest that has attracted close scrutiny and calls for transparency from the international community and independent watchdogs.

A four-member team of United Nations experts that was in Venezuela's capital for more than a month ahead of the presidential election—at the invitation of Venezuela's Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE)—issued an interim report Tuesday that criticizes the CNE's management of the July 28 contest, arguing that it "fell short of the basic transparency and integrity measures that are essential to holding credible elections."

While turnout was significantly higher than in 2018 and the election "took place in a largely peaceful environment and was logistically well-organized," the U.N. experts said, the CNE's "announcement of an election outcome without the publication of its details or the release of tabulated results to candidates has no precedent in contemporary democratic elections."

"This had a negative impact on confidence in the outcome announced by the CNE among a large part of the Venezuelan electorate," the experts added. The CNE said Maduro won the election with just under 52% of the vote.

"The new presidential term in Venezuela does not begin until January 2025, providing more than four months for all sides to reach a negotiated agreement."

CEPR's assessment of the contest and its aftermath resembled that of the U.N. experts. The watchdog group criticized the CNE's failure to "release a breakdown of the results at the voting table (mesa de votación) level" and urged it to make the information public "as promptly as possible."

"The government has rejected the authenticity of the tally sheets published by the opposition," CEPR's report notes. "But the case it has made so far has been unconvincing, presenting about three dozen purported tally sheets (out of about 25,000) where there are allegedly missing signatures and similar issues which are common in most electoral processes."

CEPR also criticized the opposition for backing "what amounts to a military coup," threatening a repeat of "the errors that many opposition politicians made in 2019 when they called on the armed forces to turn against the government and support the installation in the presidency of Juan Guaído, a member of the National Assembly who was never elected president."

"Extra-constitutional efforts of this sort should be vigorously opposed internationally," CEPR said. "Likewise, the government needs to ensure that security forces adhere to international human rights standards when responding to protests and disturbances; they should also refrain from carrying out arbitrary detentions."

Amid calls to release detailed election results, Maduro has taken his case to Venezuela's Supreme Court, which is conducting a review of the election.

While the Biden administration is reportedly considering fresh sanctions against Venezuela, Reutersnoted Tuesday that U.S. officials have "so far held off on new punitive measures."

"The presidents of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia are coordinating action while calling for full access to voting records, while a coalition including the U.S., Canada, Panama, and others are holding separate talks among each other and with Venezuela's opposition," Reuters added.

CEPR stressed in its report that "the new presidential term in Venezuela does not begin until January 2025, providing more than four months for all sides to reach a negotiated agreement and allow for diplomatic efforts to take shape."

"In that regard, it seems like the most promising efforts are led by the group formed by Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, who are 'holding conversations with both sides,'" CEPR added, citing Associated Pressreporting. "The likely alternative is not promising: If these governments were to be sidelined, the United States would likely play a bigger role together with right-wing regional governments who are allied with Washington. Given the history described above, it is highly unlikely that this would result in a positive outcome for Venezuela."