US Leads Global Surge in Oil and Gas Expansion, Analysis Finds

Five wealthy countries including the United States have led a global surge in oil and gas development in 2024, threatening international climate goals, according to an analysis published by The Guardian on Wednesday.

The U.S., United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Norway together are projected by the end of 2024 to have issued licenses for fossil fuel projects that will emit 11.9 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over their lifetimes—far more than in any of the previous five years, and roughly equal to a full year of emissions from China, the world's highest emitter—according to industry data analyzed by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and shared with the newspaper.

The five states are responsible for more than two-thirds of all oil and gas licenses issued globally since 2020, with the U.S. alone accounting for half of the world total. President Joe Biden's administration increased oil and gas licensing by 20% over Trump-era levels, and issued a record 758 new extraction licenses in 2023, according to the analysis.

"The U.S. has become a petrostate and is still, even under President Biden, permitting new drilling," John Sterman, a climate policy expert and professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology's business school, told The Guardian. "The developed countries don't show any significant efforts to limit drilling."

Sterman pointed to a "fundamental contradiction" between rich countries' international commitments and their ongoing fossil fuel expansion. "We can't keep going on like this," he said.

The industry's grip on U.S. politicians has made significant policy change in Washington difficult. In the past decade, fossil fuel companies have spent $1.25 billion on federal lobbying and more than $650 million on campaign contributions, according to OpenSecrets data.

The Conservative-led U.K. government issued a surge of North Sea licenses in the first half of this year, but lost power to the Labour Party following a general election earlier this month. It's not yet clear if Labour will be able or willing to rescind licenses already issued. Currently the U.K. is set to finish 2024 with 72 licenses for projects that would create 101 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over their lifetimes—a 50-year high, according to the IISD analysis. Norway and Australia are also seeing major upticks this year.

Capital expenditure at the world's largest oil companies is up 60% since 2020, with $302 billion projected to be spent on well development this year, The Guardian reported. The fossil fuel expansion continues even though the reserves in rich countries are generally hard to reach, as more accessible reserves have already been tapped.

The expansion also comes in spite of disturbing climate news—2023 was hottest year on record, June was the 13th consecutive hottest month, and Monday was the hottest day, having broken a record set the previous day—and dire warnings from leading international institutions. No new fossil fuel projects can proceed if the world is to meet the 1.5° Paris agreement target, the International Energy Agency declared in 2021.

In December, at the United Nations COP28 climate summit, the world's nations agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, though the agreement was viewed by climate campaigners as weakly worded and ridden with loopholes.

Delegates from wealthy Western nations often present themselves as change-seekers in international climate negotiations, but the IISD analysis adds to evidence that such nations are in fact a big part of the problem.

"Fossil fuel corporations, and the governments that support them, will never stop unless forced to," Bill McGuire, a climate scientist at University College London, said on social media in response to the analysis. "Neither has any interest in the future of the climate, our world, or their own kids."