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For Immediate Release
May, 18 2021, 12:00am EDT
Contact:
Email: info [at] priceofoil.org
IEA's First 1.5degC-Aligned Scenario Bolsters Call for No New Fossil Fuel Extraction
IEA must now make it central to its flagship WEO and fix remaining model flaws.
WASHINGTON
Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a special report, "Net Zero in 2050: A roadmap for the global energy system," that represents the agency's first ever effort to model a comprehensive energy pathway towards limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (degC). While concerns remain over some of the IEA's modelling choices, campaigners are welcoming the report as a milestone towards IEA reform.
Through the #FixTheWEO campaign, climate advocates, investors, businesses, and diplomats have been urging the IEA for years to align its influential annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) with the full ambition of the Paris Agreement goals. In a key win, IEA director Dr. Fatih Birol committed for the first time last week that the new 1.5degC-aligned scenario will be "integral" to WEO 2021 and made a permanent fixture of future WEOs.
Critically, the 1.5degC-aligned scenario finds "no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply." This represents a break from past IEA reports that boosted new oil and gas development by focusing on scenarios that steered the world towards catastrophic levels of warming.
As next steps towards reform, energy analysts are calling on the IEA to transform the WEO to focus on 1.5degC-aligned policies and investments and fix persistent modelling flaws. The new scenario continues to underestimate wind and solar while overselling riskier, more polluting alternatives.
In response to today's special report, Oil Change International experts released the following statements:
Kelly Trout, Interim Energy Transitions and Futures Program Director, said:
"It's huge to have the world's most influential energy modellers bolstering the global call to stop licensing and financing new fossil fuel extraction. Governments, banks, and Big Oil and Gas companies can no longer use the IEA as a shield to claim that their support for fossil fuel expansion is consistent with the Paris Agreement. The IEA's own modelling now shows new oil and gas fields are not compatible with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.
"However, the IEA still has a ways to go to cast off its fossil fuel roots and prove itself a credible global advisor on climate. If the IEA is serious about steering the world towards a 1.5@C-aligned future, it must put 1.5@C at the heart of all its analysis and communications moving forward.
"Today's report should herald the end of any excuses for continued fossil fuel expansion. We should never see another IEA report that claims investment in new oil and gas supply is 'needed.'"
David Tong, Senior Campaigner, said:
"Today's report is a tremendous win for climate advocates who have been demanding that the IEA align its analysis and communications with the critical 1.5@C limit. While we applaud the IEA for taking this step, they can rest assured that advocates will continue pushing for the institution to complete the job.
"The IEA needs to fix the flaws in this report by prioritising truly clean technologies, and thrust that fixed scenario into the center of the 2021 World Energy Outlook. By continuing to underestimate wind and solar potential, the IEA is still encouraging dangerous levels of reliance on carbon capture and storage, fossil gas, and bioenergy, technologies favored by polluting industries but harmful for people.
"Gambling the climate on a 4,000 percent increase in carbon capture and storage by 2030 is extraordinarily risky and, the IEA's own analysis shows, not necessary. Instead of banking on a consistently underperforming and still polluting technology, the IEA should be accelerating the phase-out of fossil gas and coal by relying on proven wind and solar solutions.
"We need the IEA to be a beacon pointing the way to a truly clean, Paris-aligned future. With today's report, that light is starting to appear, but it is not yet shining as bright as it must."
Oil Change International is a research, communications, and advocacy organization focused on exposing the true costs of fossil fuels and facilitating the ongoing transition to clean energy.
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Israeli Use of AI Weapons in Gaza Denounced as Blatant Violation of Treaty Obligations
"As the Israeli military weaponizes AI for oppression, the world must confront this hypocrisy and hold it accountable to save lives," said Jewish Voice for Peace.
Nov 20, 2024
Amid reporting that the Israel Defense Forces is using an artificial intelligence weapons system touted as improving "operator lethality," Jewish Voice for Peace said Israel's use of technological warfare is "nothing new"—but pointed out that the new reports follow the country's signing of "the first global 'safety' AI treaty."
The Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence, spearheaded by the Council of Europe, was signed by Israel in September, and "claims to be a legal framework governing AI systems to mitigate risks to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law—but the Israeli military is using AI to do precisely the opposite," said JVP.
The Jewish-led advocacy group spoke out after Middle East Eye (MEE)reported that the IDF has been using a weapons system in Gaza that came out of a collaboration between Israeli Weapons Industries and the Indian company Adani Defence & Aerospace.
The AI system, Arbel, was first unveiled at a defense expo in Gandhinagar, Gujarat in October 2022. MEE reported it is capable of turning "machine guns and assault rifles into computerized killing machines," using algorithms to increase Israeli soldiers' chances of hitting targets with accuracy and "efficiency."
The huge death toll in Gaza—which is conservatively estimated to be about 44,000 but which nearly 100 medical professionals estimated to be more than 118,000 last month, based on their experiences in hospitals there—has previously been linked to Israel's use of AI.
As Common Dreams reported in April, an AI machine called Lavender has been used by the IDF to devise "kill lists," with the military deeming 100 civilian deaths for every Hamas official an acceptable error rate. In December, the Israeli outlets +972 Magazine and Local Callreported that another AI machine called Gospel has been used to target dozens of buildings per day.
Defense analysts told MEE that Arbel has likely been used to "carry out the carnage of Palestinians in a more efficient manner in Gaza."
Antony Loewenstein, an independent journalist who tracks the use of technological warfare in Gaza and the West Bank, told MEE that as Israel has used numerous AI systems over the past 13 months, "targeting civilians was the point. It was never about just going after Hamas."
"I have spoken to people in Gaza, I have seen the direct human impact of this kind of killing," he told the outlet. "It is horrific."
Research analyst Noah Sylvia of the Royal United Services Institute in London told MEE that the IDF "has demonstrated a disregard for civilian life in Gaza to the point of routinely targeting children with small arms, meaning that Arbel could easily be used to make the killing of civilians, of children, more efficient."
The impact of the AI system depends "on the military's operating procedures and commitment to international humanitarian law," said Sylvia.
Humanitarian groups and human rights experts have said Israel is blatantly disregarding international law with its near-total blockade of aid into Gaza and its attacks—some with U.S. weapons—on civilians infrastructure.
JVP said the IDF's use of Arbel indicates Israel is also violating the Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence, and noted reports that the military has also used "facial recognition technology and advanced weapons to monitor, silence dissent, cut internet access, and obscure its war crimes."
Marwa Fatafta, Middle East policy and advocacy director for Access Now, warned that Israel's partnering with India—where AI companies reportedly have the sixth-highest AI investments in the world at $7.73 billion—may provide "a new and terrifying blueprint for tech-enabled warfare... this time through Indian-Israel military tech."
"Rarely does a technology stay dormant in one location," Fatafta said. "The lawlessness and impunity in which Israel commits egregious crimes with the use of AI should terrify everyone."
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House Democrats Back Sanders Senate Effort to Halt Arms Sales to Israel
"The U.S. must use its leverage to safeguard civilian lives, secure a lasting cease-fire, and advance a pathway toward peace."
Nov 20, 2024
A group of progressives in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders' joint resolutions of disapproval that would block sales of American weapons to Israel as its troops continue to lay waste to the Gaza Strip.
Sanders (I-Vt.) introduced the six resolutions in September and plans to force a vote on Wednesday. In a statement led by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the House members said that "if given the opportunity to do so, we would vote in favor of S.J. Res. 111, S.J. Res. 113, and S.J. Res. 115."
Jayapal was joined by Democratic Reps. Becca Balint (Vt.), Joaquin Castro (Texas), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Sara Jacobs (Calif.), Barbara Lee (Calif.), Jim McGovern (Mass.), Mark Pocan (Wis.), and Jan Schakowsky (Ill.).
While condemning the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack and backing "defensive systems that are designed to meet Israel's security needs," the nine House members also argued that "the United States must use all available leverage, including the suspension of offensive weapons transfers, to de-escalate the violence and protect the lives of hostages, including Americans, Palestinian civilians, and all those impacted by the ongoing conflict."
"We are and have been deeply alarmed by the Israeli military's conduct in Gaza, where independent human rights monitors have documented the use of U.S.-provided weaponry in violations of international law," they continued. "According to the Biden administration's own report, 'it is reasonable to assess' that Israeli security forces have used U.S. weapons to violate international humanitarian law. The humanitarian aid entering Gaza has also reached historic lows. In October, an average of 28 trucks per day crossed into Gaza, compared to a pre-war daily average of 500."
The coalition also pointed to the Biden administration's mid-October letter, which threatened to cut off U.S. weapons unless the Israeli government took "urgent and sustained actions" to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza within 30 days.
"On November 4, 2024, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated Israel had so far 'failed' to implement the recommendations in the letter, and that assessment was substantiated by several humanitarian organizations," the lawmakers noted. "Despite this clear lack of progress, no meaningful action has been taken by the Biden administration to promote Israeli compliance with stated U.S. policy goals."
Sanders announced plans to bring his resolutions to a vote after a U.S. State Department spokesperson last week responded to a question about the Biden administration's deadline by declaring that Israel is not violating federal and international law.
Warning that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House in January "will only embolden" Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right ministers, the House members asserted that a vote for the resolutions "is a vote to politically restrain the Netanyahu government from any forthcoming efforts to formally annex the West Bank and settle parts of Gaza."
"We urge senators to support these joint resolutions of disapproval to block specific offensive arms sales to Israel, upholding U.S. law that prohibits arms transfers to countries that engage in a consistent pattern of gross violations of internationally recognized human rights or restrict the delivery of U.S. humanitarian assistance," the coalition concluded. "The U.S. must use its leverage to safeguard civilian lives, secure a lasting cease-fire, and advance a pathway toward peace."
Some House progressives have separately endorsed Sanders' resolutions. Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.)—who lost her August primary to a Democrat backed by pro-Israel lobbyists—said that since President Joe Biden "won't stop sending bombs, it's up to Congress to uphold the law" and urged "every senator who cares about humanity and the rule of law" to vote yes.
Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), the only Palestinian American in Congress, said on social media Wednesday, "Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act is very clear: The U.S. cannot provide weapons to any country that 'prohibits or otherwise restricts, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance.'"
Biden "has refused to enforce U.S. law and stop sending weapons to the Israeli government as they commit genocide in Gaza and use starvation as a weapon of war," Tlaib added. "Today, every senator will have to decide if they will vote to uphold our own laws and block arms sales to Israel."
So far, only a small number of senators have signaled support for the resolutions—Democratic Sens. Tim Kaine (Va.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Brian Schatz (Hawaii), Chris Van Hollen (Md.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), and Peter Welch (Vt.). The measures would also have to get through the Republican-controlled House to hit Biden's desk, and overriding an anticipated veto would require two-thirds support in both chambers.
Although the resolutions are not expected to pass even in the Senate, "the Biden administration is aggressively pushing senators to bless continued U.S. weapons shipments for Israel ahead of a first-of-its-kind vote in Congress on the policy," HuffPostrevealed Wednesday after obtaining a copy of talking points the White House is circulating on Capitol Hill.
"Administration officials are suggesting lawmakers who vote against the arms are empowering American and Israeli foes from Iran to the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, which the U.S. treats as terror organizations," HuffPost reported. "Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is also privately pressing senators to endorse the ongoing flow of military equipment to Israel, according to one of the aides."
Responding to the report on social media, Sanders ally and Arab American Institute president James Zogby—who is considering a run for Democratic National Committee chair—said that "this White House effort is disgraceful."
"Senators trying to block offensive weapons to Israel aren't aiding Hamas, they're trying to stop genocide, starvation, and massive violations of U.S. laws," Zogby added. "They're saving Palestinian lives and the last shred of U.S. honor."
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Dr. Oz Nomination Seen as Potential Boon for Medicare Privatization
"Dr. Oz wants to fully privatize Medicare," warned one advocacy group. "That’s why Donald Trump put him in charge of Medicare."
Nov 20, 2024
Dr. Mehmet Oz, whose unsuccessful 2022 Pennsylvania Senate bid included pitching voters on a plan to expand the privatized Medicare Advantage program, is now in a position to potentially actualize that plan.
President-elect Donald Trump announced Tuesday that Oz, also known by his TV personality name Dr. Oz, is his pick to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
"Dr. Oz—a massive investor in Pharma—told the voters of Pennsylvania his plans to privatize Medicare… and they rejected him. Now Trump is giving him the authority to see his industry-approved plan carried through," wrote the progressive-leaning outlet The Lever, which covered Oz's support for Medicare Advantage back in 2022.
Through Medicare Advantage, which has been promoted by Trump and other congressional Republicans, seniors can opt out of traditional government-run Medicare health plans and instead choose plans administered by private insurers, such as UnitedHealthcare and Cigna.
According to The Lever's 2022 reporting, Oz pushed Medicare Advantage plans on his show The Dr. Oz Show and co-wrote a 2020 column for Forbes with a former healthcare executive in which they argued that a "Medicare Advantage For All" plan can "save" our healthcare system. In the column, Oz and his co-author articulated a plan to expand Medicare Advantage by imposing a 20% payroll tax.
Oz "is not a good pick for a very powerful position in charge of a trillion dollars of healthcare spending," wrote Matt Stoller of the American Economic Liberties Project on X, in reference to The Lever's investigation.
The Lever also reported that Oz's plan to expand private plans under Medicare Advantage could "boost companies in which he invests." For example, Oz and his wife owned up to $550,000 worth of stock in UnitedHealth Group, at the time of reporting. UnitedHealthcare and Humana account for nearly half, or 47%, of Medicare Advantage enrollees nationwide, according to the health policy organization KFF.
Additionally, a 2022 investigation by The New York Timesfound that major health insurers have exploited Medicare Advantage to boost their profits by billions of dollars.
Project 2025, a list of right-wing policy proposals led by the Heritage Foundation that Trump has tried to distance himself from, calls for making Medicare Advantage the default option for Medicare beneficiaries, which, if enacted, "would be a multibillion-dollar annual giveaway to corporations at the expense of Medicare enrollees and taxpayers," according to the liberal research and advocacy organization the Center for American Progress.
Robert Weissman, co-president of Public Citizen, offered a related critique of Oz: Americans "need someone who will crack down on insurers who want to deny care to the sick, providers who skimp on quality healthcare, corporations that want to privatize Medicare, and Big Pharma profiteers and ideologues who want to slash Medicaid and refuse care to low-income people. What they do not need is a healthcare huckster, which unfortunately Dr. Mehmet Oz appears to have become, having spent much of his recent career hawking products of dubious medical value."
In addition to the potential boon for private insurers, some researchers, news outlets, and members of Congress have also raised concerns about the quality of care administered under Medicare Advantage.
A 2022 government report found that "[Medicare Advantage Organizations] sometimes delayed or denied Medicare Advantage beneficiaries' access to services, even though the requests met Medicare coverage rules" and also "denied payments to providers for some services that met both Medicare coverage rules and [Medicare Advantage Organization] billing rules."
In October, a group of three Democratic lawmakers wrote to the current CMS administrator about increasingly widespread abuses and care denials by for-profit Medicare Advantage insurers.
"We are concerned that in many instances MA plans are failing to deliver, compromising timely access to care, and undermining the ability of seniors and Americans with disabilities to purchase the coverage that’s right for them," Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.), and Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) wrote in a letter.
"We continue to hear alarming reports from seniors and their families, beneficiary advocates, and healthcare providers that MA plans are falling short, and finding a good plan is too difficult," they wrote.
In particular, they pointed to Medicare Advantage plans' growing reliance on prior authorization, a complex, barrier-ridden process whereby doctors must demonstrate a proposed treatment is medically necessary before the insurer will cover it.
"Overuse of prior authorization is not only harmful to patients, it hinders healthcare providers' ability to offer best-in-class service," they added.
Social Security Works, a progressive advocacy group, warned in a social media post Tuesday that "Dr. Oz wants to fully privatize Medicare."
"That's why Donald Trump put him in charge of Medicare," the group added. "We will fight to stop this charlatan from getting anywhere near our Medicare system."
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