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UCS Climate and Energy Media Manager Ashley Siefert Nunes, asiefert@ucsusa.org
Between now and 2065, climate change is projected to quadruple U.S. outdoor workers' exposure to hazardous heat conditions, jeopardizing their health and placing up to $55.4 billion of their earnings at risk annually if no action is taken to reduce global warming emissions, according to a new report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). This research is currently being reviewed for journal publication and is available on a preprint server.
"Outdoor workers--including those in agriculture, construction, delivery services and emergency response--are essential to keeping the fabric of our society intact," said Dr. Rachel Licker, report author and a senior climate scientist at UCS. "The last seven years have been the hottest on record. Without additional protections, the risks to workers will only grow in the decades ahead as climate change worsens, leaving the roughly 32 million outdoor workers in our country to face a brutal choice: their health or their jobs."
The "Too Hot to Work" analysis found that nationally by midcentury, assuming no reduction in global warming emissions:
The "Too Hot to Work" report combines county-level projections of dangerously hot days in the contiguous United States from the 2019 peer-reviewed UCS analysis "Killer Heat in the United States" with U.S. Census data on workers in the seven occupational categories with the highest proportion of outdoor jobs and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations for keeping outdoor workers safe during extreme heat conditions. The number of workdays at risk is calculated by adding the partial days lost when the combined heat and humidity reach between 100 and 108 degrees Fahrenheit--a range in which the CDC recommends employers reduce work schedules--and entire days lost when such conditions exceed 108 degrees Fahrenheit, the threshold at which the CDC recommends employers stop work. The report does not project future changes in the number or distribution of outdoor workers. Midcentury results are determined by averaging the findings for the period between 2036 and 2065.
People of color have been and will continue to be hit especially hard by extreme heat for a number of reasons, including that they are disproportionately represented in many outdoor occupations. More than 40 percent of U.S. outdoor workers identify as African American, Black, Hispanic or Latino, despite these groups comprising about 32 percent of the general population. Outdoor workers who identify as African American, Black, Hispanic or Latino risk losing an estimated $23.5 billion in annual earnings by midcentury if no action is taken to reduce global heat-trapping emissions.
"When combined with existing inequities resulting from centuries of systemic racism--such as increased exposure to air pollution, lack of access to quality health care and adequate cooling, and underfunded social services--extreme heat will exacerbate the risks outdoor workers of color already face," said Dr. Kristina Dahl, report author and a senior climate scientist at UCS. "Migrant and undocumented workers may be further constrained in their ability to seek safety protections from dangerous heat due to the threat of employer retaliation, which could even result in deportation."
For farmworkers, who die of heat-related causes at roughly 20 times the rate of workers in all other civilian occupations according to CDC data, the danger of extreme heat is compounded by routine pesticide exposure.
"It's a deadly cycle. Heat stress makes farmworkers more susceptible to injury from toxic pesticides, while the heavy protective clothing they must wear increases the risk of heat-related illness," said Dr. Marcia DeLonge, a research director and senior climate scientist in the Food and Environment Program at UCS and an author of the 2018 "Farmworkers at Risk" report. "Moreover, climate change is amplifying the risks by causing an increase in insect pest populations and making weeds more abundant, which will likely drive more pesticide use, further endangering the people who put food on our tables."
The report offers state- and county-level data too. By midcentury, assuming no reductions in global heat-trapping emissions:
About 20 percent of the U.S. labor force works outdoors, with significant numbers of outdoor workers located in urban areas and outdoor workers comprising a larger share of the local economy in rural communities. These workers are largely unprotected as federal guidelines are only recommendations. In addition to the CDC guidelines, the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) merely suggests that employers implement safety precautions when the heat index, or "feels like" temperature, exceeds 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
"While there are suggested guidelines, the United States doesn't have enforceable national heat-safety standards to protect outdoor workers during extreme heat," said Dr. Dahl. "Furthermore, only two states--California and Washington--have any such permanent standards. The lack of safeguards during extremely hot days has historically left workers exceedingly vulnerable to heat-related illnesses and even death."
UCS experts found that workers could stay safe and continue to work most days if their schedules were adjusted to coincide with cooler hours and their workloads were reduced to light levels. Coupling these strategies would ensure most workers would lose fewer than seven days of work per year on average by midcentury. Report authors caution, though, that there are practical limits to how much workloads and schedules can be adapted, so reducing global warming emissions remains essential for limiting the number of extreme heat days workers will experience.
"To limit future extreme heat, the United States must urgently contribute to global efforts to effectively constrain heat-trapping emissions by investing in just and equitable solutions that get us to net-zero emissions no later than 2050," said Dr. Licker. "Our analysis also recommends that all levels of government take action now to better protect our nation's essential outdoor workers. We know this risk is worsening and has significant implications for workers, employers and the broader economy, so we need to be prepared."
The report urges Congress to adopt the "Asuncion Valdivia Heat Illness and Fatality Prevention Act of 2021," legislation named in remembrance of a California farmworker who died from preventable heat stroke after picking grapes for 10 hours straight in triple-digit temperatures. The bill would direct OSHA to set protective standards--such as mandating that employers provide adequate hydration, shade and rest breaks--for outdoor workers regularly exposed to heat.
Other worker safety recommendations include requiring employers to create science-informed heat safety plans that would be enforced by OSHA; implementing heat safety monitoring and reporting requirements; providing multilingual training to supervisors and workers so they can better recognize and respond to the dangers of extreme heat; and ensuring workers have access to fair wages, affordable health care, cool housing, and legal protections.
To view the report PDF, click here.
Spreadsheets with data are available by state and by county. National data results can be found here.
To use the interactive mapping tool, click here. The map, which becomes more detailed when you zoom in, allows you to learn more about outdoor workers' exposure to extreme heat and the corresponding economic implications by county.
For all other materials, including state-specific press releases, corresponding blogs, a related "Got Science" podcast episode, and Spanish-language materials, click here.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading science-based nonprofit working for a healthy environment and a safer world. UCS combines independent scientific research and citizen action to develop innovative, practical solutions and to secure responsible changes in government policy, corporate practices, and consumer choices.
"The U.S. government are conspirators to the war criminal Netanyahu's genocidal plan," said the Michigan Democrat.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib on Saturday had notably different responses to Israel's intense bombing campaign in Lebanon over the past 24 hours, which killed hundreds of people including key Hezbollah leaders.
"Our country is funding this bloodbath," Tlaib (D-Mich.) said on social media Saturday morning, sharing a post from Zeteo's Prem Thakker with videos of the Israeli assault on Lebanon that began Friday, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in New York City to address the United Nations General Assembly.
"Sending more of our troops and bombs to the region is not advancing peace," added Tlaib, the only Palestinian American in Congress and a leading critic of Israel's yearlong genocide in the Gaza Strip. "The U.S. government are conspirators to the war criminal Netanyahu's genocidal plan."
In the post shared by Tlaib, Thakker noted that "the U.S. was reportedly informed of this mass Israeli attack on Beirut in Lebanon shortly beforehand," which "comes just one day after [the] U.S. released $8.7 billion more in aid to Israel."
Tlaib also shared that her office is fielding "desperate calls" from U.S. citizens who are struggling to leave Lebanon. She declared that "the mission of the U.S. Department of State is to protect Americans, and they are failing AGAIN."
Biden, meanwhile, began his Saturday afternoon statement by noting that Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which the Iran-backed Lebanese political and paramilitary group confirmed earlier in the day—a development that elevated fears of a broader regional war.
"Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror," Biden said. "His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians."
The president continued:
The strike that killed Nasrallah took place in the broader context of the conflict that began with Hamas' massacre on October 7, 2023. Nasrallah, the next day, made the fateful decision to join hands with Hamas and open what he called a "northern front" against Israel.
The United States fully supports Israel's right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups. Just yesterday, I directed my secretary of defense to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. military forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression and reduce the risk of a broader regional war.
Ultimately, our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means. In Gaza, we have been pursuing a deal backed by the U.N. Security Council for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. In Lebanon, we have been negotiating a deal that would return people safely to their homes in Israel and southern Lebanon. It is time for these deals to close, for the threats to Israel to be removed, and for the broader Middle East region to gain greater stability.
While the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) thanked Biden "for standing with our democratic ally Israel," journalists from around the world and other critics highlighted that his statement "has not a word on civilian casualties."
Ali Abunimah, director of The Electronic Intifada, was among those who pointed out that Biden said the "assassination of Nasrallah, in an Israeli massacre that killed hundreds, 'is a measure of justice for his many victims.'"
"Utterly depraved, and by this twisted, criminal Biden logic, those who tried to assassinate Trump were also instruments of 'justice," Abunimah said, referring to former U.S. President Donald Trump, Republican nominee for the November election.
Middle East expert Assal Rad said: "Biden calls massive bombs in a densely-populated area that leveled six apartment buildings in Lebanon 'a measure of justice.' The torching of international law and the precedent that is being set should terrify us all."
Rad also slammed Biden's cease-fire call, saying: "This is nonsense. You can't provide the funding and weapons to continue the conflict *without* conditions, twist humanitarian law to give Israel total impunity, and reject every international institution that seeks accountability, and then say your 'aim is to de-escalate.'"
Others recalled Israel's 2004 assassination of Hamas leader Ahmed Yassin, which also killed seven other people. The administration of former Republican U.S. President George W. Bush—who launched the global War on Terror in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks—didn't issue a forceful condemnation like some European leaders, but a spokesperson for the State Department said at the time that "we are deeply troubled" by the attack.
As'ad Abukhalil, a Lebanese American professor at California State University, Stanislus, declared Saturday that "there has been no U.S. president EVER who has unconditionally allowed unrestrained Israeli savagery in the Middle East as Biden has done."
Abukhalil warned that "the U.S. will suffer for years to come from the policies of Biden in the Middle East," which he described as "more far-reaching [than] Bush's."
Biden, a Democrat, was initially seeking reelection in November, but after a disastrous summer debate performance against Trump, he passed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris. After putting out Biden's Saturday statement, the White House released a similar one from Harris—which was also lauded by AIPAC.
"Hassan Nasrallah was a terrorist with American blood on his hands. Across decades, his leadership of Hezbollah destabilized the Middle East and led to the killing of countless innocent people in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and around the world. Today, Hezbollah's victims have a measure of justice," Harris said. "I have an unwavering commitment to the security of Israel. I will always support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis."
"President Biden and I do not want to see conflict in the Middle East escalate into a broader regional war," she added. "We have been working on a diplomatic solution along the Israel-Lebanon border so that people can safely return home on both sides of that border. Diplomacy remains the best path forward to protect civilians and achieve lasting stability in the region."
In response, Margaret Zaknoen DeReus, executive director at the California-based Institute for Middle East Understanding, said: "Like Biden, not a word from the VP , from the candidate of joy & freedom, about the 1,000+ Lebanese men, women and children Israel obliterated. Not a word about hundreds of thousands of Lebanese displaced, entire city blocks destroyed. We don't exist as human beings to this [administration]."
Responding to both statements on social media, the anti-war group CodePink said that the Biden-Harris administration "believes flattening a residential area with... bombs is 'justice.'"
"Israel is committing crimes against humanity and waging regional war (while dragging international states to it) all in order to maintain its control of resources in the region," said one West Bank journalist.
Further elevating fears of a full-scale regional war in the Middle East, Hezbollah on Saturday confirmed the death of Hassan Nasrallah, who led the political and paramilitary group, after Israel's massive overnight assault on Lebanon.
Hezbollah
did not say how Nasrallah was killed but said in a statement that "the leadership of Hezbollah vows to the highest, most sacred, and dearest martyr in our journey filled with sacrifices and martyrs to continue its struggle against the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast, honorable people."
The confirmation from the Iran-backed group came after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed that it had killed Nasrallah—and multiple other members of Hezbollah leadership.
As of Saturday morning, at least 1,030 people in Lebanon are confirmed dead, and 6,352 people have been injured, though Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad highlighted that "there are still martyrs under the rubble, missing persons, and scattered remains."
Israel escalated its attacks on Lebanon this week after trading fire with Hezbollah for nearly a year over the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians and left many more displaced and starving. This week's death toll in Lebanon was over 700 even before the "
apocalyptic" bombing campaign that began Friday, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in New York City to address the United Nations General Assembly.
After
leveling several residential buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, targeting Hezbollah's headquarters in Dahiyeh, Israel continued "conducting strikes on strategic terrorist targets" around the Lebanese capital, the IDF said, including "weapons production facilities, buildings used to store advanced weapons, and key command centers."
In response to the IDF's description of the Friday attack as a "precise strike," Adil Haque, a professor at Rutgers Law School in New Jersey, said, "Reminder that the location of military objectives in civilian areas, even when illegal, does not relieve the opposing party of its obligations under international humanitarian law."
Fellow Rutgers professor and human rights attorney Noura Erakat
stressed that "Israel transforms residential areas into targets by saying 'terrorist' once [because] of work of racism and colonialism. These are attacks on civilians [without] regard to distinction [between] civilian and militants."
Mariam Barghouti, a Palestinian American journalist and policy analyst based in the occupied West Bank,
said on social media that "in a single night Israeli military carpet-bombed Lebanon, carpet-bombed Gaza, invaded Jenin and Tulkarem in the West Bank."
"Israel is committing crimes against humanity and waging regional war (while dragging international states to it) all in order to maintain its control of resources in the region, while annexing Palestinian lands unabated," Barghouti added. "Israel's violence is in order to defend its ethnoreligous supremacy."
According toReuters:
Residents have fled Dahiyeh, seeking shelter in downtown Beirut and other parts of the city.
"Yesterday's strikes were unbelievable. We had fled before and then went back to our homes, but then the bombing got more and more intense, so we came here, waiting for Netanyahu to stop the bombing," said Dalal Daher, speaking near Beirut's Martyrs Square, where some of the displaced were camping out.
The Associated Pressreported that "on Saturday morning, the Israeli military carried out more than 140 airstrikes in southern Beirut and eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley," while "Hezbollah launched dozens of projectiles across northern and central Israel and deep into the Israel-occupied West Bank, damaging some buildings in the northern town of Safed."
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
said in a series of social media posts on Saturday that "all the Resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah."
"The Resistance forces will determine the fate of this region with the honorable Hezbollah leading the way," he continued. "The Lebanese haven't forgotten there was a time when the soldiers of the occupying regime were advancing toward Beirut, and Hezbollah stopped them and made Lebanon proud. Today too, by the grace and power of God, Lebanon will make the transgressing, malicious enemy regret its actions."
"It is an obligation for all Muslims to stand with the people of Lebanon and the honorable Hezbollah, offering their resources and assistance as Hezbollah confronts the usurping, cruel, malicious Zionist regime," he added.
Greek economist and politician Yanis Varoufakispointed out that the intense bombing by Israel—which receives billions of dollars in military support from the United States—came shortly after U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron "tabled a joint U.S.-French comprehensive cease-fire initiative to end the carnage" in Gaza and Lebanon.
"Today Israel killed Nasrallah," he said. "Can there be a greater humiliation for Biden-Macron? Can't they see they are a laughingstock?"
Just hours before Israel toppled residential buildings in Lebanon on Friday, Human Rights Watch director of crisis advocacy Akshaya Kumar wrote that her group "is calling on Israel's key allies, including the United States, to suspend military assistance and arms sales to Israel, given the real risk that they will be used to commit grave abuses."
"Instead, the U.S. has done the opposite, and continues to approve weapons transfers and military aid without conditions," she noted. "World leaders gathered in New York held an emergency meeting on Lebanon, but words alone will not be enough to shift the Israeli government's plans. Leaders need to act."
Early Saturday afternoon, Biden released a statement on Israel killing Nasrallah. In it, Biden "praises not just his killing but how it was done—calling Israel's strike on an area full of civilians 'a measure of justice,'" saidHuffPost's Akbar Shahid Ahmed. "Striking."
Biden also said that "the United States fully supports Israel's right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups. Just yesterday, I directed my secretary of defense to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. military forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression and reduce the risk of a broader regional war."
"Ultimately, our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means," Biden claimed—though, as Ahmed emphasized, his call to reduce hostilities came "without changes to U.S. policy that's battered both."
"This is a deliberate targeting of a Black Muslim student at an institution where those two identities are increasingly unwelcome," said the Ph.D. candidate, Momodou Taal.
Two members of Congress on Friday joined the growing chorus of voices criticizing Cornell University for the administration's treatment of Ph.D. student Momodou Taal, a U.K. citizen who could be deported as a result of his pro-Palestinian activism on the Ithaca, New York campus.
"It is appalling that Cornell University appears ready to deport an international student without regard for due process, simply because of their presence at a protest. It is wrong, and I urge the university to reverse course immediately," U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a top congressional critic of Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip, said on social media early Friday.
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.)—another opponent of genocide in Gaza who is set to leave the House of Representatives at the end of this term after losing his primary to a pro-Israel candidate—spoke out in support of Taal Friday evening.
"Momodou Taal participated in a peaceful student protest against weapons contractors' presence in a career fair—Cornell set into motion his deportation."
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for the November election, "showed us how he felt about Black immigrants, and I urge Cornell to refrain from doing the same," Bowman said on social media.
"Momodou Taal participated in a peaceful student protest against weapons contractors' presence in a career fair—Cornell set into motion his deportation," he explained. "Cornell must reverse his suspension. Student protest and free expression are critical rights that universities need to uphold for students and faculty alike."
Joel M. Malina, Cornell's vice president for university relations, has told multiple media outlets this week that "universities can disallow enrollment and bar a student from campus, but do not have deportation powers."
In response, Taal's attorney, Eric Lee, has called that statement "a cynical sleight of hand," given that "the administration has made the decision to persecute Mr. Taal for free speech activity knowing full well that doing so will subject him to serious immigration consequences," which sets "a dangerous national precedent."
Taal, 30-year-old a Ph.D. candidate in Africana studies who was teaching a writing seminar at Cornell, is part of the Coalition for Mutual Liberation. He was among over 100 students who marched into the on-campus career fair last week due to participation from Boeing and L3Harris, defense contractors that students targeted for "supporting the ongoing war in Gaza."
In a video interview with Taal published on Friday, The Cornell Daily Sun's Gabriel Levin noted that the newspaper does not know of any other students suspended because of the career fair protest. Taal suggested that he is being targeted because of his identity as a Black Muslim man and he is seen as a leader of pro-Palestinian campus activism.
Early Monday, Taal received an email about a Cornell police complaint against him related to the career fair protest—which contains allegations that the graduate student denies—and his resulting suspension. He has been barred from campus.
Because Taal has attended the Ivy League school with an F-1 visa, the suspension means he could soon be deported. As The Nationreported on Wednesday:
The F-1 visa program allows foreign nationals to reside in the United States if they are enrolled in an academic educational program, a language-training program, or a vocational program. Those with F-1 visas can also work on campus and in limited off-campus training positions. According to the Department of Homeland Security, suspension from an academic program is a valid reason for the termination of a record, which changes the immigration status of someone holding a F-1 visa.
Cornell University did not respond to questions about its policies and procedures regarding the suspension of a student with an F-1 visa.
As of publication, the university still refers to disciplinary action against Taal as a "temporary suspension." But by suspending Taal, the university set in motion immigration procedures without having to provide the level of evidence that due process would require, if the charges against Taal were criminal, which they are not.
Taal said on social media Thursday that "the VP of student and campus life, Ryan Lombardi, rejected my appeal after one business day. This demonstrates once again that my ability to stay in this country is being hastily handled without due process in a continued attempt to silence me. I have until 5:00 pm tomorrow to appeal to the provost. If the provost rejects this appeal, then I believe my withdrawal will be processed and I will promptly have to leave the country."
"Once again, there has been no investigation, nor have I had a chance to even respond to the allegations against me," he continued. "I maintain that all my actions have been peaceful and in accordance with my First Amendment rights. This is a deliberate targeting of a Black Muslim student at an institution where those two identities are increasingly unwelcome. When it comes to Palestine the university will abandon all commitments to academic freedom and free speech to protect its corporate interests."
Taal's next appeal goes to Cornell's interim provost, John Siciliano—who, in a Monday email to students, "advocated for severe punishments against pro-Palestinian activists, including legal action," as the Sunnoted in a Thursday editorial.
Cornell is facing mounting pressure from students, professors, alumni, and campus groups as well as advocates and organizations in Ithaca and across the country to stop "unjustly" punishing Taal—who was also involved in pro-Palestinian advocacy at Cornell during the last academic year, as protests over Israel's assault on Gaza were held on campuses across the United States.
"What should make Taal's suspension troubling to every member of the Cornell community is not at all about whether one agrees with his beliefs—it's that the university hasn't shown Taal the due process that all students deserve," the Sun's editorial states. "Without an independent party weighing the evidence, this can't be called anything other than a kangaroo court in which the provost serves as judge, jury, and executioner."
"To make matters worse, Cornell may have violated labor law, too," the newspaper detailed. "Cornell breached an agreement it had signed just three months ago with Cornell Graduate Students United, which requires the university to bargain with the union when graduate students might be de-enrolled or suspended. Here, no bargaining took place. The university simply chose to impose its will unilaterally."
Although the consequences of Taal's on-campus activism may be severe, he made clear on social media Friday evening that he "will never regret going hard for Palestine."