Citing New Polling, Sunrise Movement Sends Election Warning to Democratic Party Establishment

And Biden's campaign and win in the general election proved that climate was not solely a winning message in deep blue districts and states, but also for a nationwide general election. His team recognized this, and in the final months of the campaign, they made climate a centerpiece of their platform, and state parties, including in swing states like Michigan, advocated for Biden by citing the Green New Deal (see above). His website still reads, "Biden believes the Green New Deal is a crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face." This strong climate messaging was used by his campaign to successfully drive young voters to the polls.

The youth vote made the difference in the election. 50% of young people (18-29 years old) voted in the 2020 presidential election, up 11% from 2016. But vitally, running strong on a bold climate platform also drove young people to organize and mobilize in key swing states, knocking doors and making calls in the midst of a deadly pandemic. By running on climate, Biden fostered enthusiasm among young people, which caused them to not only vote but help turn out their communities.

DEMOCRATIC FRUSTRATION
Frustration within the Democratic voter base is rampant. With razor thin margins in both the House and Senate, and President Biden's plummeting approval ratings, the midterm elections will be a tough uphill battle for Democrats. Though many factors have impacted Biden's numbers, the president's failure to follow through on key campaign promises--especially on climate and Build Back Better--has undoubtedly hurt his popularity.

Notably, at the beginning of 2021, of all age groups, Biden had the highest net-approval rating among young people. But at the end of year, young people gave Biden a lower net-approval rating than every other age group. And many of the respondents cited the administration's shortcomings in combating the climate crisis.

SUNRISE x DFP NEW POLL: YOUNGER VOTERS WANT TO GO BIG ON CLIMATE

A December Data for Progress and Sunrise Movement poll of 855 likely voters ages 18-35, further demonstrated that climate change is a driving force for young voters, and young voters want to see bold federal action. This provides further evidence that running strong on climate, and specifically embracing a platform of the Green New Deal, just might be how Democrats can bring young people back into the fold.

The recent poll shows that young voters overwhelmingly support ambitious federal climate actions such as an executive order to declare a National Climate Emergency and the Green New Deal.

Heeding the guidance from this polling, it is even more important that candidates run on a bold climate agenda, like the Green New Deal, given the current reality of Democrats continuing to disillusion young people by failing to pass Build Back Better and other legislation to address the crises they face.

CASE STUDY: 2022 TEXAS PRIMARIES
Despite the uphill battle Democrats are facing this midterm season, Democratic primary elections in Texas proved that running boldly on climate is a winning strategy. Greg Casar (TX-35) and Jessica Cisneros (TX-28), who ran on the Green New Deal and were endorsed by Sunrise Movement, inspired an army of young people to mobilize and vote for them. With Greg Casar's strong win he's all but ensuring his victory in November. And Jessica Cisneros, who was up against "Big Oil's Favorite Democrat," is now facing a historic runoff that was unimaginable a few years ago.

Greg Casar and Jessica Cisneros' strong showing in the polls earlier this month wasn't an accident. Young people are ready and willing to mobilize and turnout for candidates that support the Green New Deal. Sunrise led a massive youth turnout operation in TX-28, recruiting volunteers and making thousands of dials for the campaign since December, surpassing its original goal of 300,000 dials, and ultimately exceeded 700,000 voter contact attempts. Let's be clear: mobilization of young people like this doesn't happen for candidates and causes that appeal to a broken status quo and toeing a moderate party line.

CONCLUSION
There is overwhelming frustration among Democrats and Americans overall. That, coupled with historical midterm trends for the party in power, could spell trouble for Democrats in 2022. If Democrats do not re-engage young people--both to get them to the polls and to get them on the phones and knocking on doors--there is no path to the House and Senate. And the best way to do that is running on an unapologetically bold climate platform. By centering climate this cycle (and delivering while they remain in power), the Democratic Party can reinvigorate young peoples' faith in the party--which would help position Democrats for success not just in 2022 but also in future elections.

Just as Democrats did with health care in '18, Democrats have the opportunity to turn a strong climate platform into a political asset and a unifying force in 2022. But only if they have the political will to do so.