May, 23 2024, 11:46am EDT
For Immediate Release
Contact:
Ashley Siefert Nunes
asiefert@ucsusa.org
Climate Change, La Niña Slated to Drive Record-Breaking 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Statement by Astrid Caldas, Senior Climate Scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane outlook today, which predicts an 85% chance of an above normal and possibly record-breaking season. The outlook forecasts 17 to 25 named storms of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes, with four to seven major hurricanes expected. Scientists also raised the alarm that record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic coupled with a 77% likelihood of La Niña conditions developing between August and October could lead to storms that rapidly intensify as they approach land and bring excessive rain upon landfall—an increasingly common phenomenon for which government officials, local emergency planners and residents must prepare.
In addition to storms, coastal communities may see a significant number of tidal flooding events, a trend that is expected to worsen if policymakers fail to rein in heat-trapping emissions and address the climate crisis. According to a peer-reviewed analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), in the decades ahead as many as 360 coastal communities could face chronic inundation due to sea level rise primarily driven by climate change. Likewise, as many as 311,000 coastal homes with a collective market value of about $117.5 billion as of 2018 could be at risk of chronic flooding by midcentury.
Below is a statement by Dr. Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist for community resilience at UCS.
“As a climate scientist that tracks hurricane activity, I recognize that the fun-filled summer season has increasingly become a time of dread for the dangers that await. The people and places that have found themselves in the path of a tropical storm can attest to its utter and enduring devastation, which often hits communities of color and low-income communities the hardest.
“U.S. coastal communities are tired of crossing their fingers and hoping these storms of epic, record-breaking proportions veer away from their homes, dissipate, or spin out over the Atlantic. It’s imperative that local, state, and federal policymakers and emergency planners help keep communities safe by prioritizing investments to get homes, businesses, and infrastructure in frontline communities climate-ready and be prepared to ensure a quick and just recovery should disaster strike. Reining in heat-trapping emissions driving the climate crisis is also essential.”
Dr. Caldas and other UCS experts are available to speak about the following topics related to the 2024 hurricane season:
- How climate change is impacting hurricane activity and rising sea levels.
- How hurricanes exacerbate existing racial and socioeconomic inequities, and compound public health disparities.
- The risks a specific storm event may pose to electric grid infrastructure and nuclear power plants in its path.
- The role fossil fuel companies have played in exacerbating climate change events.
- How investments to help communities prepare before disasters strike can help limit future economic damages and prevent loss of life.
- The role that the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency and Department of Housing and Urban Development play in disaster response and recovery.
- Ways the insurance market is being affected by climate change and the implications for at-risk communities.
Additional Resources and Analyses:
- A newly launched UCS online map, which tracks the places at risk of extreme heat, wildfires, storms, poor air quality and flooding during the 2024 Danger Season.
- UCS blogposts from this and previous Danger Seasons.
- A 2020 UCS report titled “A Toxic Relationship: Extreme Coastal Flooding and Superfund Sites,” which found hundreds of hazardous sites were at risk of flooding in the coming decades due to sea level rise and hurricanes.
- A 2015 UCS report titled “Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help,” which examined the risks storm surge and coastal flooding pose to power plants, substations, and other electricity infrastructure along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.
- Peer-reviewed research by UCS that shows how much global sea surface temperatures, sea level rise, and ocean acidification can be traced to emissions from the products of ExxonMobil and other major fossil fuel companies.
- A UCS fact sheet on the science connecting extreme weather events, like hurricanes, to climate change.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading science-based nonprofit working for a healthy environment and a safer world. UCS combines independent scientific research and citizen action to develop innovative, practical solutions and to secure responsible changes in government policy, corporate practices, and consumer choices.
LATEST NEWS
Global Fears for the Future as Fascist Donald Trump Wins Second Term
"The world is a more dangerous place this morning."
Nov 06, 2024
This is a developing news story... Check back for possible updates...
Donald Trump, a former president with openly authoritarian ambitions, defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris less than four years after sparking a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn his 2020 defeat.
Trump's 2024 victory over Harris, the U.S. vice president, was decisive: If current projections hold, Trump will sweep the seven battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. One outlet described the election results as "a stunning wipeout" for the Democratic Party.
In a speech in Florida, Trump said his win comes with an "unprecedented and powerful mandate"—a signal that he intends to try to follow through with his pledges to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, prosecute and deploy the military against his political opponents, gut rules constraining climate-polluting fossil fuel companies, and further slash taxes for the rich and large corporations.
"I will govern by a simple model," said Trump, whose campaign was bankrolled in part by the world's richest man. "Promises made, promises kept."
Trump's ability to implement a legislative program was bolstered by the Republican Party's capture of the U.S. Senate, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) losing to luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno and West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice easily picking up the seat left open by Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement.
Control of the U.S. House remains up for grabs as of this writing, according to The Associated Press, with more than 100 races yet to be called.
"Should Republicans take full control of Capitol Hill, there will be scant check on Trump's executive authority," notedFinancial Times columnist Edward Luce. "The U.S. Supreme Court already wrote Trump the equivalent of a judicial blank check when it ruled in July that he had sweeping immunity for his actions as president."
"America has turned a decisive corner," Luce added. "It would be foolhardy to suppose that Trump did not mean what he said when he vowed to come after his enemies. It would also be delusional to think that he will in any way feel constrained by his country's 50-50 split. Trump has a mandate to overhaul the U.S. in unimaginably disruptive ways. There will be no going back from the seismic outcome of America's 2024 election."
Fears about what a Trump victory could mean reached well beyond the confines of the United States, as Israel's far-right—including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—gleefully welcomed the imminent return to power of a billionaire whom leading historians have dubbed a fascist.
"Congratulations on history's greatest comeback!" wrote Netanyahu, who has spearheaded Israel's catastrophic assault on the Gaza Strip—a genocidal war that Trump backed during the 2024 campaign. "Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America."
The Peace & Justice Project, a United Kingdom-based advocacy organization, wrote Wednesday that "the world is a more dangerous place this morning."
"Trump's victory is a grave concern for the planet, marginalized communities, refugees, and Palestinians trying to survive Israel's genocide," the group continued. "We must organize globally and stand in solidarity with those targeted by the awful politics of fear and division—and build an alternative of hope and unity."
Sophie Bolt, general secretary of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, similarly warned that "the world will be far more dangerous with Trump's thumb on the nuclear button."
"The risks of nuclear flashpoints are already high—over Ukraine, across the Middle East, and in the Asia-Pacific," said Bolt. "This will only intensify under his presidency."
In a statement, Human Rights Watch said that a second Trump presidency "poses a grave threat to human rights in the United States and the world."
"Donald Trump has made no secret of his intent to violate the human rights of millions of people in the United States," said Tirana Hassan, HRW's executive director. "Independent institutions and civil society groups, including Human Rights Watch, will need to do all we can to hold him and his administration accountable for abuses."
Harris, who became the Democratic presidential nominee after Biden dropped out of the race in July, has yet to address the nation.
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37 Groups Demand Foreign Secretary Clarify UK Definition of 'Genocide'
David Lammy's recent comment to Parliament, the coalition said, "at best, has injected a deeply troubling ambiguity in respect of these pivotal issues in light of the mass atrocities perpetrated against civilians in Gaza."
Nov 05, 2024
Fallout over remarks that David Lammy, the U.K.'s secretary of state for foreign, commonwealth, and development affairs, recently made to the House of Commons about the Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip continued on Tuesday with a letter from 37 rights organizations.
"We call on the foreign secretary, as a matter of urgency, to make a statement clarifying the government's understanding of i) genocide in international law; ii) the scope of the U.K.'s international obligations pursuant to the Genocide Convention and Rome Statute; and iii) what steps must be taken to fulfill such obligations," the coalition wrote.
The groups pointed to an exchange between Lammy, of the Labour Party, and Conservative Member of Parliament Nick Timothy on October 28, when the foreign secretary said that the way words like genocide are being used now "undermines the seriousness of that term."
Israel faces a South Africa-led genocide case at the International Court of Justice over its 13-month assault on Gaza, which has killed at least 43,391 Palestinians and wounded another 102,347, according to officials in the Hamas-governed enclave. The ICJ initially ordered Israel to "take all measures within its power" to uphold its obligations under the Genocide Convention in January.
Lammy's response to Timothy last week, "at best, has injected a deeply troubling ambiguity in respect of these pivotal issues in light of the mass atrocities perpetrated against civilians in Gaza," the coalition argued Tuesday. He "chose to undermine international law and answer in opposition to the International Court of Justice."
"If Labour is indeed the party of international law, Foreign Secretary David Lammy must align with, rather than undermine, the courts."
Despite Lammy's suggestion, the Genocide Convention contains no numerical threshold and "is clear that the crime of genocide is not only perpetrated through mass killing," the groups noted, highlighting Israeli attacks on food production, water infrastructure, healthcare facilities, and civilian housing, shelters, and camps.
In northern Gaza, "Palestinian civilians are being killed through starvation and dehydration, disease, deprivation of lifesaving medical intervention, and constant bombardment and targeting by weaponized drones," they wrote. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres "has warned of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza by Israel while the U.N. Commission of Inquiry has concluded that the Israeli authorities have committed the crime against humanity of extermination of part of the civilian population in Gaza through direct and indirect means."
"These assessments raise the specter of genocide and support the findings of other experts who have long concluded that genocide is taking place," the coalition continued. "This makes it imperative for the foreign secretary to revisit his comments and to clarify the government's understanding of the crime of genocide."
Amichai Stein, a correspondent for state-owned Israeli broadcaster Kan, said on social media Tuesday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced "the division of the northern Gaza Strip into two parts has been completed, and we getting closer to the complete evacuation of the northern part from civilians and terrorists: 'This time there is no intention to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes and that humanitarian aid will regularly enter the southern Gaza Strip.'"
In other words, as Drop Site News' Ryan Grim put it, "Israeli media reporting that the IDF is declaring northern Gaza effectively ethnically cleansed, not even a hint of pretense now that it's Election Day" in the United States.
While the U.S. has repeatedly faced global condemnation for arming Israel over the past year, the rights coalition on Tuesday focused on the U.K. government, emphasizing that "to the extent that the ICJ has already ordered provisional measures, the U.K. is on notice that a plausible risk of genocide exists, triggering third-state responsibility."
Signatories to the letter include ActionAid U.K., Christain Aid, Council for Arab-British Understanding, Democracy for the Arab World Now, Gender Action for Peace and Security (GAPS), Global Justice Now, Jewish Network for Palestine, Medical Aid for Palestinians, Quakers in Britain, and War on Want.
GAPS director Eva Tabbasam toldMiddle East Eye that the language used to describe the war in Gaza "is essential to recognize the suffering of Palestinians and consider all possible actions the U.K. has to contribute to stopping what is a plausible risk of genocide."
"If Labour is indeed the party of international law, Foreign Secretary David Lammy must align with, rather than undermine, the courts," Tabbasam said. "He should have already done so months ago when the court first published this language, but the second best time is right now."
Separately, War on Want on Tuesday published an analysis detailing how "Israel is committing genocide of the Palestinian people" and arguing that "the U.K. government is failing to uphold international law, and is complicit in Israel's crimes, as it continues to export weapons and technology used by Israel against the Palestinian people."
"Palestinians have long struggled for their rights and for justice. During the 1947-8 ethnic cleansing of historic Palestine—the Nakba (Arabic for 'catastrophe')—around 750,000 Palestinians were forced from their homes and lands by armed groups, to live under Israel's system of apartheid," the group noted. "Israel has carried out its ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people, unlawful occupation, apartheid, and blockade of Gaza—the ongoing Nakba—with impunity and has now escalated its actions into genocide."
The London-based organization is also circulating a petition in response to the foreign secretary's remarks from last week, which says in part: "David Lammy is misleading parliament and the U.K. public. He must tell the truth—that this is genocide—and immediately take action to stop the genocide, and the U.K.'s complicity."
Other responses to Lammy's comments have included public criticism from What Is Genocide? author Martin Shaw and dozens of public figures in the Arab British community demanding an apology.
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Netanyahu Replaces Fired Israeli Defense Minister With 'Another Genocidal Lunatic'
"Israel just doubled down on prolonging its genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza," said one observer.
Nov 05, 2024
Palestine defenders on Tuesday accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of swapping one "genocidal lunatic" for another after the right-wing leader fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replaced him with Israel Katz, who was serving as foreign minister.
"Israel just doubled down on prolonging its genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza," journalist and genocide scholar Samira Mohyeddin said on social media following Netanyahu's moves.
Netanyahu cited what he called a "crisis of trust" that "gradually deepened" as his reason for the changes, which came as Israel is waging war on Gaza and Lebanon while bracing for Iranian retaliation for recent Israeli attacks on the Middle East nation.
"In the midst of a war, more than ever, full trust is required between the prime minister and the minister of defense," Netanyahu said Tuesday, according toThe Jerusalem Post. "This trust has cracked between myself and the defense minister."
Katz, a member of Netanyahu's Likud party, previously held several Cabinet posts, most recently as Israel's top diplomat. He was the minister of energy and infrastructure on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants launched a surprise attack on Israel that left more than 1,100 people dead—at least some killed by fratricidal fire—and over 240 others kidnapped and taken to Gaza.
Two days later, Katz issued an order to "immediately cut off the water supply from Israel to Gaza."
"Electricity and fuel were cut off yesterday," he said. "What was will not be. All the civilian population in Gaza is ordered to leave immediately. We will win. They will not receive a drop of water or a single battery until they leave."
Katz's directive followed Gallant's order for a "complete siege" of Gaza.
"There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed," Gallant said. "We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly."
These statements by Gallant and Katz are cited in the International Court of Justice's January 26 provisional order for Israel to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza. Israel—which is on trial for alleged genocide at the ICJ—has been accused of ignoring this and subsequent orders issued by the tribunal.
On Tuesday, Israeli state media reported that the Israel Defense Forces has completed its division of Gaza into two parts, and that "there is no intention to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes."
Katz has also come under fire for declaring United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres "persona non grata in Israel" for criticizing the country's war on Gaza, which has left more than 155,000 Palestinians in Gaza dead, wounded, or missing and millions more starving and sick.
While serving as Israel's foreign minister, Katz was also condemned for threatening "severe consequences" for nations that officially recognize Palestinian statehood. Nearly 150 of the 193 United Nations member states recognize Palestine.
Katz also raised eyebrows in 2022 after he made a thinly veiled threat to ethnically cleanse Arab citizens of Israel. Responding to Israeli Arab students who displayed the Palestinian flag on college campuses, Katz said "remember '48," a reference to 1948, when Israel declared its independence amid an ethnic cleansing campaign in which more than 750,000 Arabs were expelled from Palestine to make way for Jewish settlement.
Palestinians call this mass dispossession and expulsion the Nakba, which means "catastrophe" in Arabic.
"Remember our independence war and your Nakba," Katz said. "Don't stretch the rope too much... If you don't calm down, we'll teach you a lesson that won't be forgotten."
"Ask your elders—your grandfathers, and grandmothers—and they will explain to you that in the end, the Jews awaken, they know to defend themselves and the idea of the Jewish state," he added.
In one of his final acts as foreign minister, Katz on Monday initiated the process of annulling a 1967 agreement between Israel and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, which Israel accuses of being "infiltrated" by Hamas. The U.N. strongly refutes Israel's accusation.
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