November, 06 2024, 09:13am EDT
UCS Comments on Repercussions of Trump Election on Global Climate Action in Lead Up to COP29
Statement by Rachel Cleetus, Union of Concerned Scientists
Donald Trump has officially been declared the winner of the U.S. presidential elections—an outcome with monumental repercussions on the international stage, especially given his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement during his previous term. It also comes just days before the annual U.N. climate talks (also referred to as COP29), kick off in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) will be attending and joining officials from more than 190 nations—as well as representatives of subnational governments, businesses and other nongovernmental organizations—working to ensure all countries are on track to increase their climate ambition to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement in reach, with a heightened focus this year on the importance of international climate financing to help meet those goals.
Below is a statement by Dr. Rachel Cleetus, the policy director and lead economist for the Climate and Energy Program at UCS.She has been attending the U.N.’s international climate talks and has partnered with the international community on climate and energy policies for about 20 years.
“President-elect Trump ran a brutish campaign that disregarded or misrepresented scientific facts, while promising to boost fossil fuel companies’ fortunes. The nation and world can expect the incoming Trump administration to take a wrecking ball to global climate diplomacy. That will likely include the shameful act of taking the United States out of the Paris Agreement again. Many domestic climate policies aren’t safe either, though the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy provisions could prove durable as they’re delivering significant economic benefits to all states and have the support of workers, businesses and policymakers across the political spectrum.
“The fact remains that existing policies aren’t enough to help the United States meet its 2030 goal to cut emissions in half below 2005 levels, let alone deliver additional reductions by 2035. And with U.S. federal climate action expected to be derailed for the next four years, other nations, U.S. subnational governments and businesses will need to fill the void as much as possible. The science on climate change is unforgiving, with every year of delay locking in more costs and more irreversible changes, and everyday people paying the steepest price.”
These talks come during a year of record-breaking heat, and on the heels of a particularly deadly and dangerous spate of extreme weather and climate disasters fueled by climate change. Additionally, a flurry of scientific reports—including the International Energy Agency’s 2024 World Energy Outlook and the United Nations Environment Programme’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report—paint a picture of how far off track the world is currently from meeting global climate goals, how much higher global average temperatures could rise if nations fail to take urgent corrective actions to address the climate crisis, and what actions must be taken to make steep, rapid cuts in heat-trapping emissions and to transition to clean energy.
While the United States—the world's largest historical emitter of global warming emissions—has pledged to reduce its emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade, even with passage of the Inflation Reduction Act current policies remain insufficient to achieve this goal with the country on track to cut heat-trapping emissions 32-43%. Collectively, nations are on a path to meet or exceed between 2.6 and 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming globally, if pledges remain stagnant. To catch up, the United States and other major emitting countries need to put additional policies in place to rapidly increase clean energy deployment and phase out fossil fuels, and wealthy nations need to ramp up climate finance for lower income countries to also cut their emissions.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading science-based nonprofit working for a healthy environment and a safer world. UCS combines independent scientific research and citizen action to develop innovative, practical solutions and to secure responsible changes in government policy, corporate practices, and consumer choices.
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Tesla's stock price jumped by as much as 15% following the former president's victory in the 2024 election.
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Trump name-checked Musk, the world's richest man, during his victory speech Wednesday morning, calling him a "super genius." Campaign finance records show that Musk—who's expected to receive a position in the president-elect's administration, despite massive conflicts of interest—pumped more than $100 million into the 2024 race in support of Trump's bid for a second term.
According to Forbes' real-time tracker, Musk's net worth—the bulk of which is tied up in Tesla stock—rose by over $16 billion on Wednesday.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday morning that while he believes a Trump presidency "would be an overall negative" for the electric vehicle industry given the Republican's pledge to assail the Inflation Reduction Act—a law that includes EV tax credits—"for Tesla we see this as a huge positive," estimating Trump's victory could help push Tesla's market share above $1 trillion.
Tesla was far from the only company whose stock price surged in the wake of Trump's win.
S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each soared to new all-time highs Wednesday as the former president appeared on track to defeat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in every swing state, securing a decisive Electoral College victory.
Wall Street behemoths Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase saw their shares jump by nearly 12% and 9% respectively, while the stock prices of oil companies such as Exxon Mobil also climbed, anticipating an aggressively pro-fossil fuel Trump administration.
Harold Hamm, billionaire founder of the oil and gas company Continental Resources, hailed Trump's victory over Harris as a "monumental win" for the fossil fuel sector—the primary driver of the global climate emergency.
The Financial Timesreported Wednesday morning that JPMorgan analysts expect shares of the biggest U.S. corporations "to rally over the coming weeks" in the aftermath of Trump's win.
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This is a developing news story... Check back for possible updates...
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Trump's 2024 victory over Harris, the U.S. vice president, was decisive: If current projections hold, Trump will sweep the seven battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. One outlet described the election results as "a stunning wipeout" for the Democratic Party.
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Fallout over remarks that David Lammy, the U.K.'s secretary of state for foreign, commonwealth, and development affairs, recently made to the House of Commons about the Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip continued on Tuesday with a letter from 37 rights organizations.
"We call on the foreign secretary, as a matter of urgency, to make a statement clarifying the government's understanding of i) genocide in international law; ii) the scope of the U.K.'s international obligations pursuant to the Genocide Convention and Rome Statute; and iii) what steps must be taken to fulfill such obligations," the coalition wrote.
The groups pointed to an exchange between Lammy, of the Labour Party, and Conservative Member of Parliament Nick Timothy on October 28, when the foreign secretary said that the way words like genocide are being used now "undermines the seriousness of that term."
Israel faces a South Africa-led genocide case at the International Court of Justice over its 13-month assault on Gaza, which has killed at least 43,391 Palestinians and wounded another 102,347, according to officials in the Hamas-governed enclave. The ICJ initially ordered Israel to "take all measures within its power" to uphold its obligations under the Genocide Convention in January.
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Despite Lammy's suggestion, the Genocide Convention contains no numerical threshold and "is clear that the crime of genocide is not only perpetrated through mass killing," the groups noted, highlighting Israeli attacks on food production, water infrastructure, healthcare facilities, and civilian housing, shelters, and camps.
In northern Gaza, "Palestinian civilians are being killed through starvation and dehydration, disease, deprivation of lifesaving medical intervention, and constant bombardment and targeting by weaponized drones," they wrote. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres "has warned of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza by Israel while the U.N. Commission of Inquiry has concluded that the Israeli authorities have committed the crime against humanity of extermination of part of the civilian population in Gaza through direct and indirect means."
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Amichai Stein, a correspondent for state-owned Israeli broadcaster Kan, said on social media Tuesday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced "the division of the northern Gaza Strip into two parts has been completed, and we getting closer to the complete evacuation of the northern part from civilians and terrorists: 'This time there is no intention to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return to their homes and that humanitarian aid will regularly enter the southern Gaza Strip.'"
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GAPS director Eva Tabbasam toldMiddle East Eye that the language used to describe the war in Gaza "is essential to recognize the suffering of Palestinians and consider all possible actions the U.K. has to contribute to stopping what is a plausible risk of genocide."
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The London-based organization is also circulating a petition in response to the foreign secretary's remarks from last week, which says in part: "David Lammy is misleading parliament and the U.K. public. He must tell the truth—that this is genocide—and immediately take action to stop the genocide, and the U.K.'s complicity."
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