Is the Heart and Soul of Trump’s MAGA Base Really the White Working Class?

When we hear the words “MAGA base” we think “white working class.” Right?

“I love the poorly educated.” —Donald J. Trump, February 24, 2016

“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic—you name it. And unfortunately, there are people like that. And he has lifted them up.” —Hillary Clinton, September 10, 2016

Eight years after Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump made this connection part of our conventional wisdom, the idea is still presented as gospel in the New York Times.

On January 15, 2024, its front page article (“How College-Educated Republicans Learned to Love Trump Again,”) starts with this sentence: “Working-class voters delivered the Republican Party to Donald J. Trump.” (A day earlier its online edition started with “White working-class voters are Donald Trump’s base.”)

No evidence at all is provided because none is needed, we’re all supposed to know it is true.

Based On What?

Not on academic research. Political scientists Noam Lupu (Vanderbilt) and Nicholas Carnes (Duke) definitively disproved the notion that most of the people who voted for Trump in 2016 were white working class. They showed that only 30 percent of the Trump voters could be considered a part of that group.

It’s time to jettison the idea that social grievances are the prime motivation. Workers are frustrated with a political establishment that has failed to halt mass layoffs, which according to our estimates have impacted more than half of all working people and their families.

The 2018 Primaries Project, at the Brookings Institute, reported that those voting in congressional Republican primaries in 2018 were better educated and richer than the public at large. Again, the white working class formed no more than one-third of the Republican primary base.

What about the January 6th insurrection? Wasn’t that a white working-class riot? Not according to the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, which analyzed the demographics of the 716 individuals who had been charged with various January 6th crimes, as of January 1, 2022. Fifty percent were either business owners or white-collar workers, and only 25 percent were blue-collar workers (defined as no college degree).

The research for my book, Wall Street’s War on Workers, provides new data that confirms the white working class does not in any way pour into Hillary Clinton’s “basket full of deplorables.” In fact, most white working-class voters have become decidedly more liberal on divisive social issues over the last several decades, including LGBTQ+ rights, immigration, and racial discrimination.

Nevertheless, the New York Times’ acceptance of the MAGA working-class canard is like a version of the old Groucho Marx line: “Who do you believe: Me (the data) or your lying eyes?”

Why Blame the White Working Class?

The attacks on working-class populism have been around for more than 140 years. Corporate owners and their newspapers viciously denounced the populist movement of the late 19th century, which aggressively challenged financial and corporate power. To counter that increasingly successful movement, newspapers, as well as pro-corporate politicians, depicted the populists as ignorant bomb-throwing radicals and worse.

The modern-day attacks on the white working class began during the 1950s as political scientists sought to account for the rise of Senator Joseph McCarthy, who cruelly attacked anyone he suspected of radical sympathies. Thousands lost their livelihoods and reputations because of his reckless disregard for the truth and for individual rights. Why was he so popular?

McCarthy, a dictatorial personality, considered by many academics to be in the mold of Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin, was elected in Wisconsin, which was still considered in the 1950s to be a populist-oriented state. Therefore, it was assumed that McCarthy gained his power from the state’s white working class, small-farmer base. The common political wisdom believed that these working people were liberal on economic issues but fundamentally anti-democratic when it came to minority rights and civil liberties. These were the kind of people, supposedly, who were more likely to embrace authoritarians.

This was accepted as gospel until Michael P. Rogin (The Intellectuals and McCarthy) looked more closely at where McCarthy actually garnered his votes. It turned out that the populist election districts voted against him. McCarthy’s real base of support came from small town professionals – the lawyers, business owners, and real estate people who formed the traditional base of the Republic Party. And the most influential drivers of McCarthy’s assault on democratic norms turned out to be conservatives, who showed far more support for authoritarianism than worker and agrarian progressives.

Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Once again today, the media and all too many politicians are blaming working people for the rise of Trump and MAGA. Yet, if we open our (lying) eyes a bit more, we can’t miss the massive horde of lawyers and businesspeople who serve as Trump’s enthusiastic enablers, from Rudy Giuliani on down. Members of the white working class are often included in photo ops but play no prominent roles in the MAGA hierarchy.

And where are the MAGA unionized working-class people? Surely, there must be a lot of them in Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. But Trump is having trouble finding them. For example, after Joe Biden marched in a United Autoworkers (UAW) picket line, Trump countered with a working class visit of his own to an auto-parts factory, where, according to credible reports, no more than a handful of UAW members were to be found.

The New York Times also didn’t find the MAGA working class when it profiled 11 Republican voters before the Iowa caucus. (“Nation’s First Voters Weigh Trump’s Gravitational Pull”). Nine of those interviewed were white-collar workers, professionals, or business owners. Only two might be considered working class -- one a Trump supporter who was a customer service representative, and the other a retired factory worker who was for DeSantis.

Where is that rabid white working class that supposedly forms the rock-solid MAGA base?

Where it always is these days. Trying to make ends meet. Hoping to avoid the next mass layoff. Wondering when a politician will really try to do something positive for economically devastated areas of the country instead of kissing up to Wall Street.

There is no question that Trump has working-class support, including more Back and Hispanic voters. While some may be attracted by his deplorable messages, others hope against hope that he will bully corporations into keeping their jobs from fleeing the country.

It’s time to jettison the idea that social grievances are the prime motivation. Workers are frustrated with a political establishment that has failed to halt mass layoffs, which according to our estimates have impacted more than half of all working people and their families.

They have been waiting, waiting, and waiting some more for politicians who dare to challenge corporate greed and to protect the livelihoods of everyday working people. As the two major parties fail to protect them from Wall Street’s war on workers, the legitimacy of democracy is imperiled.