The Kamala Conundrum

While we await President Biden’s conversation with the Lord Almighty, the Democratic Party lords are planning the coronation of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Is she the best Democratic Party nominee?

Many party leaders are eager to shut down that discussion. For them, it’s game over. They say that Harris should be the nominee and anyone who opposes her will greatly offend key Democratic constituencies, starting with the Black women who have been the backbone of the party in key states.

How would it look, for example, if a white woman like Governor Gretchen Whitmore, were chosen instead? After all, Harris is literally “next in line.” Picking anyone else, therefore, would be like cutting ahead of the line. Not fair and an insult to people of color.

But that argument is a stretch. It’s not automatic that vice presidents get a free ride to the nomination. Sometimes they have to fight for it, as Humbert Humphrey did in 1968. And Biden himself, of course, was pushed aside for Hillary Clinton in 2016, even after serving two terms as Obama’s VP.

Yes, popular democracy is messy. There is no guarantee that the most electable candidate will emerge. But Democrats must act as democrats...

Party elites also point to the fact that Harris is well known and therefore has a big edge over newer candidates who have not yet been vetted through the national political grinder. But that also cuts the other way.

While Harris is well known, that’s not necessarily a plus. As of July 5, 51.2 percent disapprove of the job the Veep is doing, with only 37.1 percent approving, according to ABC News’ 538 poll averages. And currently, she is trailing Trump in the latest poll, 47 to 42 percent. Her supporters will correctly point out, however, that the other, lesser-known Democratic hopefuls are polling even more poorly against Trump.

Harris also has a stellar electoral record to be considered in California, where she served as Attorney General and then U.S. Senator. And, of course, she won the vice presidency in 2020, but that vote was largely about Biden and Trump.

As a national candidate for president in 2020, however, she did not do well. After one good debate in June 2020, her campaign faltered, as her poll numbers crashed from 15 percent to 3 percent in December. She then withdrew even before the primaries began.

Some will write that off as old news that doesn’t tell us much about the current situation, but really, why exactly doesn’t that history matter? What concrete evidence do we have that she would do better now as a presidential candidate?

What counts most today is who the Democratic rank-and-file really want as their presidential candidate when Biden steps down. The party’s candidate this year needs to inspire and draw the broadest possible turnout to defeat Donald Trump in the battleground states.

The Democrat mantra this fall is that “democracy is on the line.” That same concern should guide their new candidate selection process. Are they willing to open it up, so the base of the party has a say in who is nominated? If so, then the Democrats should seriously consider a reasonable process outlined by Jonathan Alter in the New York Times:

• Only those with a certain threshold of support in polls may take part in Democratic debates scheduled before the convention.
• Each qualifying candidate will be granted a half-hour address on the opening night of the convention, with the winner expanding on it in his or her acceptance speech.
• Delegates should take into consideration—though not be bound by—state and national polls showing the relative strengths of the candidates.
• The candidates should identify possible running mates.

Representative James Clyburn (D-S.C.), a Biden campaign co-chair no less, is suggesting a mini-primary before the August nominating convention.

It could very well be that Kamala Harris would come out of this process as the strongest contender, igniting and mobilizing many of the key Democratic Party constituencies. But it would be a grave error to use that assumption to eliminate rank-and-file Democrats from having a real say in the process.

We need and deserve to see Harris share the debate stage with Governors Newsom (CA), Whitmer (MI), and Shapiro (PA), and other possible candidates. After two debates it should become clear who most inspires the Democratic base and therefore who has the greatest chance to defeat Trump.

An open convention and complete transparency would help sell the eventual candidate to a broad swath of Democrats and a healthy number of independents. It is a major feature of our modern populist era that people want to be heard, not ignored. They don’t want elites making key decisions for them.

We’re in this mess because Biden and party elites refused to listen to the vast majority of Democrats who believe he is too old for a second term. Party leaders would make a similar mistake if they ignore the party’s base yet again.

Yes, popular democracy is messy. There is no guarantee that the most electable candidate will emerge. But Democrats must act as democrats, both to avoid hypocrisy and to improve their chances to protect democracy this fall.