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Falling revenues are the direct result of tax cuts that undermine the ability of state governments to support crucial services that help families and communities thrive. Some states are about to be hit hard, but others show us there is a different path to take.
As the 2024 legislative season starts, state policymakers again face a critical choice when it comes to tax policy: whether to pursue policies that ensure wealthy households and corporations pay their fair share and that vital public services are funded adequately, or to continue the recent trend of costly, regressive tax cuts that undermine their ability to meet people’s needs or invest in the future. With state revenues weakening and other risk factors on the horizon, states should reject calls for additional tax cuts and instead protect and raise revenues to support public services that help families and communities thrive.
Over the past three years, a wide swath of states have taken a counterproductive tax-cutting path: using the cover of temporary budget surpluses stemming from federal COVID-19 relief and the subsequent economic recovery to enact costly, regressive, and permanent cuts to their state income tax systems. But the federal relief has expired, and states have mostly spent the fiscal aid.
Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs.
The fallout in lost revenue could be substantial. As our recent report detailed, 26 states cut personal and corporate income tax rates over the past three years. Those states stand to collect an estimated $111 billion less over the next five years than they otherwise would have, with the price tag in lost revenues hitting nearly $30 billion a year by 2028 (see graphic). The damage is already starting to show up on some state balance sheets.
Tax cuts on that scale could translate into serious harm, especially at a time when state budgets are under increasing strain from a host of factors, including expiring federal relief funds and a modestly cooled economy. Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs. They will also constrain states’ future potential by limiting policymakers’ ability to make new investments to tackle unmet or emerging needs and issues, such as child poverty, the health of pregnant or postpartum people, or housing affordability.
Consider some examples:
In three states — Arizona, North Carolina, and West Virginia — income tax cuts passed in the past three years are comparable in scope to the disastrous “Brownback tax cuts” adopted in Kansas in the 2010s, which decimated that state’s public services, failed to deliver a promised economic boost, and were eventually overturned by a bipartisan supermajority. Several other states are close behind in terms of the scale of future costs.
State policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
Fortunately, a few other states have recently shined a light on a different, brighter path of protecting and raising revenues to support current services and new investments.
These three aren’t alone: states including Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont, and the District of Columbia have also raised new revenues to fund initiatives like universal free school meals, expanded child care and paid leave, and more affordable housing options.
More states should follow suit in 2024 and beyond. While slashing income taxes tilts the balance of economic and political power further toward wealthy people and special interests and weakens states’ ability to thrive, boosting tax revenue in sound, targeted ways and reinvesting the money in people and communities are among the best ways for states to enhance their long-term promise. It enables states to reduce poverty and expand economic opportunity as well as enhance their residents’ overall quality of life and potential for long-term, broad-based prosperity. Progressive tax systems and durable support for public services are also vital for advancing racial justice and helping to protect the pillars of a healthy democratic process.
With a range of targeted policies at their disposal, state policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
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As the 2024 legislative season starts, state policymakers again face a critical choice when it comes to tax policy: whether to pursue policies that ensure wealthy households and corporations pay their fair share and that vital public services are funded adequately, or to continue the recent trend of costly, regressive tax cuts that undermine their ability to meet people’s needs or invest in the future. With state revenues weakening and other risk factors on the horizon, states should reject calls for additional tax cuts and instead protect and raise revenues to support public services that help families and communities thrive.
Over the past three years, a wide swath of states have taken a counterproductive tax-cutting path: using the cover of temporary budget surpluses stemming from federal COVID-19 relief and the subsequent economic recovery to enact costly, regressive, and permanent cuts to their state income tax systems. But the federal relief has expired, and states have mostly spent the fiscal aid.
Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs.
The fallout in lost revenue could be substantial. As our recent report detailed, 26 states cut personal and corporate income tax rates over the past three years. Those states stand to collect an estimated $111 billion less over the next five years than they otherwise would have, with the price tag in lost revenues hitting nearly $30 billion a year by 2028 (see graphic). The damage is already starting to show up on some state balance sheets.
Tax cuts on that scale could translate into serious harm, especially at a time when state budgets are under increasing strain from a host of factors, including expiring federal relief funds and a modestly cooled economy. Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs. They will also constrain states’ future potential by limiting policymakers’ ability to make new investments to tackle unmet or emerging needs and issues, such as child poverty, the health of pregnant or postpartum people, or housing affordability.
Consider some examples:
In three states — Arizona, North Carolina, and West Virginia — income tax cuts passed in the past three years are comparable in scope to the disastrous “Brownback tax cuts” adopted in Kansas in the 2010s, which decimated that state’s public services, failed to deliver a promised economic boost, and were eventually overturned by a bipartisan supermajority. Several other states are close behind in terms of the scale of future costs.
State policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
Fortunately, a few other states have recently shined a light on a different, brighter path of protecting and raising revenues to support current services and new investments.
These three aren’t alone: states including Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont, and the District of Columbia have also raised new revenues to fund initiatives like universal free school meals, expanded child care and paid leave, and more affordable housing options.
More states should follow suit in 2024 and beyond. While slashing income taxes tilts the balance of economic and political power further toward wealthy people and special interests and weakens states’ ability to thrive, boosting tax revenue in sound, targeted ways and reinvesting the money in people and communities are among the best ways for states to enhance their long-term promise. It enables states to reduce poverty and expand economic opportunity as well as enhance their residents’ overall quality of life and potential for long-term, broad-based prosperity. Progressive tax systems and durable support for public services are also vital for advancing racial justice and helping to protect the pillars of a healthy democratic process.
With a range of targeted policies at their disposal, state policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
As the 2024 legislative season starts, state policymakers again face a critical choice when it comes to tax policy: whether to pursue policies that ensure wealthy households and corporations pay their fair share and that vital public services are funded adequately, or to continue the recent trend of costly, regressive tax cuts that undermine their ability to meet people’s needs or invest in the future. With state revenues weakening and other risk factors on the horizon, states should reject calls for additional tax cuts and instead protect and raise revenues to support public services that help families and communities thrive.
Over the past three years, a wide swath of states have taken a counterproductive tax-cutting path: using the cover of temporary budget surpluses stemming from federal COVID-19 relief and the subsequent economic recovery to enact costly, regressive, and permanent cuts to their state income tax systems. But the federal relief has expired, and states have mostly spent the fiscal aid.
Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs.
The fallout in lost revenue could be substantial. As our recent report detailed, 26 states cut personal and corporate income tax rates over the past three years. Those states stand to collect an estimated $111 billion less over the next five years than they otherwise would have, with the price tag in lost revenues hitting nearly $30 billion a year by 2028 (see graphic). The damage is already starting to show up on some state balance sheets.
Tax cuts on that scale could translate into serious harm, especially at a time when state budgets are under increasing strain from a host of factors, including expiring federal relief funds and a modestly cooled economy. Shrinking revenues will jeopardize current levels of state support for vital public services like schools, health services, and income support programs. They will also constrain states’ future potential by limiting policymakers’ ability to make new investments to tackle unmet or emerging needs and issues, such as child poverty, the health of pregnant or postpartum people, or housing affordability.
Consider some examples:
In three states — Arizona, North Carolina, and West Virginia — income tax cuts passed in the past three years are comparable in scope to the disastrous “Brownback tax cuts” adopted in Kansas in the 2010s, which decimated that state’s public services, failed to deliver a promised economic boost, and were eventually overturned by a bipartisan supermajority. Several other states are close behind in terms of the scale of future costs.
State policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.
Fortunately, a few other states have recently shined a light on a different, brighter path of protecting and raising revenues to support current services and new investments.
These three aren’t alone: states including Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont, and the District of Columbia have also raised new revenues to fund initiatives like universal free school meals, expanded child care and paid leave, and more affordable housing options.
More states should follow suit in 2024 and beyond. While slashing income taxes tilts the balance of economic and political power further toward wealthy people and special interests and weakens states’ ability to thrive, boosting tax revenue in sound, targeted ways and reinvesting the money in people and communities are among the best ways for states to enhance their long-term promise. It enables states to reduce poverty and expand economic opportunity as well as enhance their residents’ overall quality of life and potential for long-term, broad-based prosperity. Progressive tax systems and durable support for public services are also vital for advancing racial justice and helping to protect the pillars of a healthy democratic process.
With a range of targeted policies at their disposal, state policymakers are well-positioned to take this brighter path: they should seize the opportunity to break the tax-cut fever and pivot in a more equitable, prosperous, responsible, and forward-looking direction.