A grand jury has officially indicted Donald Trump on four felony counts related to his attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
These are the most serious charges against Trump yet, but the reality is that these charges will only boost Trump in the Republican primary.
In March, several weeks before the first indictment, Trump had just 43% of the vote in Republican polling, according to a RealClearPolitics average. But a day after he was charged in a hush money scheme to an adult film actress, his numbers had jumped to 50%.
Tuesday’s indictment begins a reassertion of the rule of law in America.
Two months later, he was indicted for mishandling classified documents. His polling average jumped again. By July 18, when a federal judge clarified that Trump had “raped” writer E. Jean Carroll, Trump’s approval had risen to 54% in the RealClearPolitics national polling average—a 10-point climb during the spring and summer.
So today’s long-expected Justice Department indictment of Trump for trying to overturn the last presidential election is likely to boost his favorable rating into the polling stratosphere as far as the Republican nomination is concerned.
Each indictment and civil verdict against Trump provides even more ammunition for Trump in his campaign against the so-called “Deep State.” Each further entrenches his campaign in a singular narrative focusing on him—placing Trump at the center of a national conspiracy.
This dynamic makes it all but impossible for any of his rivals to criticize him. DeSantis and most of Trump’s opponents have embraced the Trump-stoked view that nearly any effort by a Democratic administration to pursue justice against Trump is de facto illegitimate. Siding with Jack Smith against Trump has become a litmus test that is little different from choosing the wrong side on abortion.
The Trump campaign’s current strategy is to attack rivals (mostly Ron DeSantis) for any hint they might be siding with prosecutors over Trump.
The dynamic also ties the Republican Party ever tighter to Trump’s self-referential conspiratorial narrative.
But each indictment and civil verdict has given the rest of America further confirmation of how dangerous and loathsome Donald Trump really is, and how far the Republican Party has gone in rejecting the rule of law.
There will not be enough time in the general election to alter this dynamic. It will likely contribute to Democratic sweeps of the presidency, Congress, and most state contests.
It could also put the current GOP into a death spiral—resulting in a purge of its Trump-dependent lawmakers and candidates. This may be the only way the Republican Party can begin to rebuild itself.
Tuesday’s indictment begins a reassertion of the rule of law in America. We are deeply indebted to Special Counsel Jack Smith and his staff for their care, integrity, and commitment to the Constitution.
