Dems Are Afraid Gaza Will Cost Them the Election. They're Not Afraid Enough.

It should be self-evident that genocide is bad because it’s genocide, but apparently it isn’t—at least, not to everyone. There is, however, another reason to demand an immediate ceasefire: Unless they change course, the Democrats are much likelier to lose in November than most people seem to realize. That thought should terrify anyone who dreads the prospect of another Trump presidency—potentially with control of both houses of Congress.

A recent poll from the Arab American Institute (AAI) 1received some much-deserved attention (if not enough) because it showed a massive decline in support for Democrats among Arab American voters because of White House support for Israel’s attack on Gaza. That decline could cost the Democrats several swing states.

The AAI poll has, it seems, gotten some Democrats’ attention. The Washington Postreports that this voter shift is a “huge concern” for a Harris campaign that, in the Post’s words, “sees the images of dead civilians as complicating her path to victory in key swing states ...”

Democrats could conceivably recover many of these votes, but it would require concrete action.

That’s a rather cold-blooded way for the Post to phrase it, but it’s certainly accurate. As an unnamed advisor to the campaign told the Post, “It comes down to people saying, ‘I can’t support anyone who supports a genocide.’”

The problem is even bigger than they think. The U.S.-backed violence in Gaza will also cost the Democrats votes in other groups—I estimate more than 60,000 total lost votes in Michigan alone—losses that could demolish Democrats’ chances in November.

Arab-American Voters in Swing States

The AAI poll showed Trump leading Harris by 46 percent to 42 percent among Arab American voters, a dramatic shift from Biden’s lead of 59 percent to Trump’s 35 percent at the same point in 2020. (This polling was conducted before Israel attacked Lebanon, where ongoing events may make these numbers even worse for Democrats.)

To explore the impact of this shift on swing states, I put the AAI’s new polling numbers into a spreadsheet, cross-tabulated them with the total number of eligible Arab American voters in swing states, and used past Arab American voter participation rates to estimate the shift in votes,

(Note: The AAI was kind enough to provide one data point for this effort, but the consultant in me demands that I point out a) that these are approximations based on available data, and that b) that any errors are mine alone.)

That said: There are more than 750,000 Arab Americans of voting age in swing states. Based on AAI’s polling shift, Democrats could lose between 115,000 and 130,000 Arab-American votes in these states.

If the losses were proportional to the voting-age population by state, Democrats could lose:

• 50,000 votes in Michigan
• 10,000 votes in Pennsylvania
• 50,000 more in other swing states

That’s 100,000 swing-state votes lost because of the ongoing U.S. support for carnage in Gaza.

But Arab Americans aren’t the only voters Gaza will lose for Democrats.

A surprising number of people, including some news staffers, tend to conflate Arab Americans and Muslim Americans. That’s a major mistake. Most Arab Americans are Christian, while only about one in four is Muslim.

Conversely, while Muslim-American census information is hard to come by, an analysis of immigration data suggests that most Muslim Americans are not of Arab descent. Among immigrants, who comprised roughly 60 percent of Muslims in that study, South Asians were the largest group, making up roughly one-third of the Muslim-American population, while approximately one in four came from Arab countries. That leaves many lost votes uncounted.

How many Muslim-American votes could Democrats lose over Gaza?

Many Muslim Americans strongly identify with the plight of the Palestinian people. How would that affect the vote?

In 2018m Pew Research reported there were 3.45 million Muslims in the U.S., a figure that was growing rapidly. To estimate Muslim votes at the state level, I extrapolated from a 2020 survey of religious institutions conducted by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies (ASARB).

(I made sure not to double-count Arab-American Muslims and I subtracted people too young to vote. I can go through my methodology online if people are interested.)

Assuming Muslim Americans vote at the same rate as most Americans rather than at the unusually high participation rate seen among Arab Americans, that comes to approximately 40,000-50,000 additional lost votes in swing states.

And it matters where those votes could be lost. ASARB’s data includes state (and county) level totals. So, by my calculations, that means an additional 11,000 votes lost in Michigan, between 6,000 and 7,000 in Pennsylvania, 6,000 in North Carolina, and 5,000 in Arizona.

Other Vote Losses

There are other votes to be lost, too, most of them among Democrats’ core demographics.

Young voters? A University of Chicago survey found that “college students remain significantly more likely to support Palestinians than Israel, and significantly more likely to take action on behalf of Palestinians in the form of discourse or protest.”

Black voters? Another survey found over two-thirds of Black Americans (68 percent) “want an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, with a plurality (46 percent) strongly supporting the idea.” It also found that 59 percent believed conditions should be placed on U.S. military aid to Israel.

What about Jewish voters? There’s no sign they’re shifting to Trump on this issue. Seventy-one percent of swing-state Jewish voters say they plan to vote for Harris. Could a ceasefire cost her a chunk of these votes? There’s no evidence for that. Israel only ranks fourth in importance among these voters—behind “the future of democracy,” abortion, and “inflation and the economy.”

And some of these voters oppose Israel’s actions.

Besides, as the lead pollster noted (and which I repeat with a kind of familial pride), most Jewish Americans despise Trump. In his words, “Trump is as hated in the battleground states as he is hated in the general population among Jewish voters.”

Is It Too Late for the Democrats?

Here’s what won’t win these votes back: more empty words and rhetorical feints. Take, for example, a “stern” letter to Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant that became public after what looks like a calculated “leak” from the State Department. The letter, signed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, asserts that the White House may invoke U.S. law against providing arms to Israel unless it eases its stranglehold on Gaza aid within thirty days.

Would the Democratic Party rather lose this election than end the U.S.-backed killing in Gaza? If not, there may still be time to stem its losses.

This move seems unlikely to win many hearts and minds, given that:

• As recently as August, “The top U.S. official working on the humanitarian situation in Gaza told aid groups in August that the U.S. would not consider withholding weapons from Israel for blocking food and medicine from entering the enclave”;
• the White House had issued empty ultimatums like this before; and,
• the deadline falls after the election, which understandably heightens skepticism.

Democrats could conceivably recover many of these votes, but it would require concrete action. The steps they could take include, for starters:

1. an immediate halt in arms shipments;
2. the delivery of food, medicine, and other humanitarian supplies within 48 hours—hand-delivered by the U.S. military, if necessary;
3. a demand to end the IDF-backed settler violence against the people of the West Bank.

Would the Democratic Party rather lose this election than end the U.S.-backed killing in Gaza? If not, there may still be time to stem its losses. But the hour is late—and it grows too late every day for more of the innocent victims of Gaza.