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"Fossil fuel pollution is sending climate chaos off the charts," U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said.
Last year broke records for several key climate indicators, including surface temperatures, ocean heat, sea-level rise, and the loss of Antarctic sea ice, the World Meteorological Organization found in its State of the Global Climate 2023 report, released Tuesday.
The agency confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record and said it gave an "ominous" new meaning to the phrase "off the charts."
"Earth is issuing a distress call," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement. "The latest State of the Global Climate report shows a planet on the brink. Fossil fuel pollution is sending climate chaos off the charts. Sirens are blaring across all major indicators."
"The climate crisis is THE defining challenge that humanity faces and is closely intertwined with the inequality crisis."
2023 saw an average global near-surface temperature of 1.45°C, the report found, making 2023 the hottest on record and the cap on the warmest 10-year period on record.
"Never have we been so close—albeit on a temporary basis at the moment—to the 1.5°C lower limit of the Paris agreement on climate change," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. "The WMO community is sounding the red alert to the world."
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had found separately that January 2024 capped a 12-month period that exceeded the 1.5°C target for the first time.
2023 was also a particularly alarming year for ocean heat, with nearly a third of the ocean in the midst of a marine heatwave at any time during the year. Global sea-surface temperatures reached record heights for April and every month after, with July, August, and September especially hot. Ocean heat content also broke records, and more than 90% of the ocean experienced a heatwave for at least a portion of the year.
The world's glaciers and sea ice did not fare any better. Glaciers lost the most ice in any year since record-keeping began in 1950, and Antarctica's sea-ice extent at the end of winter smashed the previous record by 1 million square kilometers.
"Because of burning fossil fuels, which leads to CO2-induced global heating, we have impacted the polar regions to such a degree that 2023 saw by far the greatest loss of sea ice in the Antarctic and of land ice in Greenland," University of Exeter polar expert Martin Siegert told Common Dreams. "The world will feel the detrimental effects now and into the future because the changes observed will lead to 'feedback' processes encouraging further change."
"Our only response must be to stop burning fossil fuels so that the damage can be limited," Siegert added. "That is our best and only option."
2023 also saw record sea-level rise and ocean acidification.
"Climate change is about much more than temperatures," Saulo said. "What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat, and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern."
Records were broken too for the main cause of all this warming and melting—the levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all reached record levels in 2022, and data indicates that the atmospheric concentrations of all three continued to rise in 2023, with carbon dioxide levels 50% higher than before the industrial revolution.
The report also considered the impacts of global heating on extreme weather events: 2023 saw several especially devastating climate-fueled disasters, including lethal flooding from Cyclone Daniel in Libya; Tropical Cyclone Mocha, which displaced 1.7 million people in the region around the Bay of Bengal; an extreme heatwave in southern Europe and North Africa; a record wildfire season in Canada that smothered several North American cities in heavy smoke; and the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than 100 years in Hawaii.
In addition to claiming lives and forcing people from their homes, these disasters have several other impacts on peoples' well-being. For example, the report noted that the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity had shot up to 333 million in 2023, more than two times the 149 million before the pandemic. While the root causes of this are war and conflict, economic downturns, and high food prices, extreme weather events can make the situation worse. When Cyclone Freddy, one of the longest-lasting cyclones ever, struck Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi in February, it flooded vast swaths of agricultural fields and damaged crops in other ways.
"The climate crisis is THE defining challenge that humanity faces and is closely intertwined with the inequality crisis—as witnessed by growing food insecurity and population displacement, and biodiversity loss," Saulo said.
Guterres, meanwhile, said the impact of extreme weather on sustainable development was "devastating."
"Every fraction of a degree of global heating impacts the future of life on Earth," he said.
There was some positive news in the report, mainly that renewable energy increased new capacity by nearly 50% in 2023 compared with 2022, the highest rate of increase in 20 years. Global climate finance nearly doubled from 2019-2020 to almost $1.3 trillion, but this was still only 1% of global gross domestic product.
To have a shot at limiting warming to 1.5°C, finance needs to increase by nearly $9 trillion by 2030 and another $10 trillion by 2050, but this is much lower than the estimated cost of doing nothing, which would be $1,266 trillion from 2025-2100, though the WMO said this was likely a "dramatic underestimate."
Guterres said it was still possible to limit long-term global temperature rise to 1.5°C, but it required swift action; leadership from the G20 nations toward a just energy transition; countries proposing 1.5°C-compliant climate plans by 2025; increased climate finance flows toward the developing world, including for adaptation and Loss and Damage; universal coverage by early warning systems by 2027; and "accelerating the inevitable end of the fossil fuel age."
"There's still time to throw out a lifeline to people and planet," Guterres said, "but leaders must step up and act now."
"Governments at the COP28 climate talks must take real action for a full, fair, funded, and fast phaseout of fossil fuels," one advocate said in response to the news.
It is "virtually certain" that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, the World Meteorological Organization concluded in its provisional State of the Global Climate report for the year.
That was only one of the broken records detailed in the report, which was released Thursday to coincide with the start of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates. The WMO documented a year of "extreme weather and climate events" that "had major impacts on all inhabited continents."
"Record heat. Deadly floods. Toxic air. It has never been clearer that the world must stop burning fossil fuels if we want a safe, livable planet," Oil Change International global policy manager Romain Ioualelen said in response to the findings. "And yet, the fossil fuel industry is pumping more and more gas and oil, expanding its business, lying to us, and raking in deadly profits, as millions of people are displaced, harmed, and killed. Governments at the COP28 climate talks must take real action for a full, fair, funded, and fast phaseout of fossil fuels."
As of October, 2023 was set to be the warmest year in 174 years of record-keeping, WMO confirmed. The body's findings come as scientists have previously said it will likely be the hottest year in 125,000 years as well. Mean near-surface temperatures during the first 10 months of the year were around 1.4°C above the average from 1850 to 1900, WMO found. Because 2016 and 2020, the two previous hottest years on record, came in at 1.29°C and 1.27°C above that average, it is unlikely that the last two months of 2023 would be cold enough to offset its lead.
Hottest year wasn't the only record broken in 2023. The year also saw the hottest monthly ocean temperatures on record from April through September, and the hottest land temperatures from July to October. Because July is typically the hottest month of the year, this July was the hottest month ever recorded.
Sea level rise reached a record height, and the rate of increase from 2013 to 2022 was more than double the rate from 1993 to 2002. Antarctic sea-ice extent also shrank to its lowest level on record in February and struggled to recover, measuring its lowest maximum extent on record in September.
"We urge governments to be ready now at the U.N. climate talks to take action commensurate with what the science is telling us."
Some markers for which 2023 data is not yet available broke records in 2022. This included atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—and ocean heat content.
"It's a deafening cacophony of broken records," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. "These are more than just statistics. We risk losing the race to save our glaciers and to rein in sea level rise."
The report also detailed how a warming climate is having a direct and devastating impact on human communities. Climate-fueled weather disasters this year included Storm Daniel, which brought severe flooding to much of the Mediterranean, with especially deadly consequences for Libya; a record wildfire season in Canada that shrouded major North American cities in toxic smoke; heat waves, which reached especially severe heights Southern Europe and North Africa; and flooding in the Horn of Africa following five years of drought that made the soil less able to absorb the rainfall. Many of these events forced people to flee their homes and made it harder for them to secure food.
"This year we have seen communities around the world pounded by fires, floods, and searing temperatures. Record global heat should send shivers down the spines of world leaders," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in response to the report.
Guterres and other climate advocates used the report to push world leaders to deliver ambitious climate action at COP28, which is mired in controversy following revelations that its president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is also the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, used the talks to push oil and gas deals.
"We have the roadmap to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C and avoid the worst of climate chaos. But we need leaders to fire the starting gun at COP28 on a race to keep the 1.5 degree limit alive," Guterres said.
He called for a commitment to phase out fossil fuels, triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency, set clear guidelines for the next round of pledges, and provide countries with the financial support they need to make them happen.
Ioualelen said that the delegates should pay attention to experts instead of fossil fuel companies.
"Rather than prioritizing lobbyists and corporations, we need leaders to make real change that tackles the root cause of the climate crisis, fossil fuels, and makes a better world for all of us—today and for generations to come," Ioualelen said. "We urge governments to be ready now at the U.N. climate talks to take action commensurate with what the science is telling us."
Taalas also called for action to avoid worsening extremes.
"We cannot return to the climate of the 20th century, but we must act now to limit the risks of an increasingly inhospitable climate in this and the coming centuries," he said.
The new study's lead author said that "it is extremely concerning to see such significant warming in Antarctica, beyond natural variability."
Antarctica is warming at about double the rate of the rest of the planet and far more quickly than widely cited models projected, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change that swiftly alarmed scientists around the world.
"This is absolutely devastating news," declared climate scientist and University College London professor emeritus Bill McGuire.
"First, one has to wonder if perhaps we have already passed the West Antarctic collapse tipping point," the expert added on social media. "Second, it begs the question, are other climate model projections underestimating the speed of climate breakdown?"
Polar amplification, a phenomenon that causes higher temperatures near the poles, is well established in the Arctic, with a study published last yearshowing that the northern region is warming nearly four times faster than the global average. However, it has been less clearly identified across Antarctica, where scientists must contend with limited available temperature records and natural climate variability.
Due to the lack of Antarctic weather stations covering more than the past six decades, the four researchers behind the new study—who come from various European institutions—analyzed 78 ice cores to determine temperature variability over 1,000 years across seven regions.
The team found "direct evidence of Antarctic polar amplification at regional and continental scales," which major climate models don't show. The study states that "failing to consider the feedback loops causing polar amplification could lead to an underestimation of the magnitude of anthropogenic warming and its consequences in Antarctica."
Lead author Mathieu Casado, of the Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement in France, toldThe Guardian that "it is extremely concerning to see such significant warming in Antarctica, beyond natural variability."
Kyle Clem, a scientist at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand who was not involved with the new research but has studied record high temperatures at one South Pole weather station, told the newspaper that "the implications of this study are of particular importance for considering future changes in Antarctic sea ice, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and potentially even sea-level rise."
"As far as sea-level rise, ocean warming is already melting protective ice shelves in West Antarctica and causing the West Antarctic ice sheet to retreat," Clem said. He also highlighted the potential impact on coastal ice shelves that protect glaciers, explaining that "this has already been seen on the Antarctic peninsula in recent decades, and it could become a more widespread occurrence around Antarctica sooner than anticipated in a more strongly warming Antarctic climate."
The research from Casado's team was published the same day as a study about the West Antarctic ice sheet published in The Cryosphere.
"With more and more ice being lost in Antarctica over the last years, concerns have been raised whether a tipping point has already been crossed and an irreversible, long-term collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet has already been initiated," noted lead author Ronja Reese of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and England's Northumbria University.
"The results of our studies deliver two messages: First, while a number of glaciers in Antarctica are retreating at the moment, we find no indication of irreversible, self-reinforcing retreat yet, which is reassuring," Reese said. "However, our calculations also clearly indicate that an onset of an irreversible retreat of the ice sheet in West Antarctica is possible if the current state of the climate is sustained."
The new studies follow findings throughout this year that have elevated fears about the impact of human-caused global heating on Antarctica—from researchers revealing in February that Antarctic sea ice coverage hit its lowest January level ever recorded, to a May study that showed a 30% slowdown in vital deep water currents around the continent.
Research from last month warned it is "virtually certain that future Antarctic extreme events will be more pronounced than those observed to date" as humanity continues to burn fossil fuels, the key driver of the climate emergency. Another August study found that when Antarctic sea ice melted last year, it likely killed over 9,000 emperor penguin chicks.
Both Reese and Casado's studies also cap off a week of alarming global data about the climate emergency. International researchers confirmed that greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea level, and ocean heat content broke records last year. Scientists also announced that this summer of deadly heat is the hottest on record.