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Overthrowing a dictator is very difficult, but it is no guarantee of liberty.
The Syrian Revolution of 2024 has succeeded in deposing the al-Assad dynasty, in power since 1970, throwing off the rule of the once mighty Syrian Socialist Baath Party, a feared and murderous one-party state. Rebel forces streamed into the capital, Damascus, Sunday morning, facing no significant resistance from government troops, amid rumors that dictator Bashar al-Assad had departed the country for parts unknown a day or two ago.
The tip of the spear of the revolution was the fighters of the Levant Liberation Council (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS), a hard-line fundamentalist organization that had run the province of Idlib in an authoritarian manner in recent years. It is not ISIL (ISIS, Daesh), though that is one path the victors could take if they were so inclined. So far, their behavior in Aleppo has presented a mixed picture, with some killing of Kurds but less turmoil, including for Christians, than some had feared.
The revolution has, however, now become a mass movement, and despite the Fundamentalist Vigilante (“Salafi Jihadi”) shape of the more effective militias, all sorts of people have joined in. Many of the expatriate supporters of the revolution are businessmen and liberals, who had hoped to come to power in 2011 before al-Assad deliberately provoked a civil war and drove the opposition into the arms of Turkey and the Gulf.
Syria is not well placed for a democratic transition, though stranger things have happened. It would be a shame if the people had to trade one form of authoritarianism for another, as happened in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, and Sudan. Overthrowing a dictator is very difficult, but it is no guarantee of liberty.
Al-Assad is the seventh long-ruling Arab dictator to fall since January 2011. The strongmen of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen fell in 2011-2012. The Bahrain monarchy, however, managed to stay in power, as did Al-Assad in Syria, though the cost to the Syrian people was a years-long civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead and half the country homeless.
I wrote a book about these “Arab Spring” youth revolts, based on field work, The New Arabs, which is still good background reading — if I do say so myself.
"Syrians are better off with the possibility of social evolution than with being locked in a political iron cage, even if the ride may turn very bumpy."
Another shoe dropped when a coalition of leftist labor unions, Sufi orders, and reformist officers overthrew Omar al-Bashir in Sudan on 11 April 2019.
Of the revolts, in Egypt the youth provoked a military coup and then pressured the army to go back to the barracks. In 2013, the army made a counter-coup and Egypt has been run in an even more authoritarian fashion ever since.
In Tunisia, there was a successful democratic transition with regular elections in which the losers went home, until 25 July 2021, when elected President Qais Saied made a self-coup and abolished democracy. Tunisia is now as authoritarian or more as under Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the general overthrown in mid-January, 2011.
Libya fell into civil war and a kind of partition. Nationalist forces led by Khalifa Hafter control the eastern part of the country, and Muslim fundamentalist forces control the West, along with the capital of Tripoli. They say they have made a government of national unity, but its success is murky. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, the CIA, and Russia support Hafter. Turkey supports Tripoli.
Yemen fell into civil war, with 80% of the population now ruled by the Houthi Shiite Zaydi militia, which has attracted some Iranian support. A southern separatist militia and Muslim Brotherhood militias have positions in southern and eastern provinces, backed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, respectively.
Sudan saw wrangling between civilians and the officer corps, which dragged its feet on going to the barracks. On October 25, 2021, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan staged a coup and arrested many civilian officials. Then the officer corps split, with the conventional forces backing al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) special operations forces mutinying, with the support of the United Arab Emirates (they get around). The country has plunged into civil war and the humanitarian disaster rivals Gaza in its intensity.
One reason these attempts at a democratic transition failed is that all these countries are desperately poor, except for Libya and Bahrain, which only have oil money, which functions anti-democratically to strengthen the state. Adam Przeworski at NYU, now emeritus, found that middle-income countries like Spain and Taiwan had a better chance of pulling off a transition from an authoritarian to a democratic system. Why is not clear. My guess is that in societies where the government is wealthier than the society, central state actors can overwhelm the public. Where a society has a lot of middle-class people and business interests that value democracy, as in South Korea, they just tell attempted coup-makers “no!”
It also matters what bargains elites make with each other and with the public. One problem everyone ran into in the aftermath of the Arab Spring was that a strong rural-urban divide emerged, which made it difficult to reach a satisfactory compromise. It was paralleled by a nationalist – Muslim fundamentalist divide.
In 2012-13, rural Egypt wanted the Muslim Brotherhood. Urban Egypt mostly hated the Muslim Brotherhood. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi took advantage of the split to make a coup that might satisfy both demographics.
The officer corps has collapsed in Syria, so it doesn’t look like Egypt. If it can move to elections and establish a representative government, Syrians could have a shot at a better life. But if it takes the path of Yemen or Libya, with fundamentalist militias fighting for power, then it will become (even more of) a basket case.
The fate of the 2.4 million Kurds in the northeast, and of 3.5 million Alawites in the northwest, and of possibly a million Christians — plus millions of secular-minded, nationalist Sunnis in Damascus and Aleppo, is very much up in the air. The danger of reprisals against the Alawites for having been the backbone of the Baath Party for 55 years is real.
Those considerations are for another day. Today, let the Syrians bask in the overthrow of a horrid dictatorship that tortured 10,000 prisoners to death, kept thousands of prisoners of conscience locked up, and killed hundreds of thousands of people with indiscriminate fire and barrel bombs, and sometimes chemical weapons. Syrians are better off with the possibility of social evolution than with being locked in a political iron cage, even if the ride may turn very bumpy.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg on Tuesday joined the growing chorus of calls demanding that United Nations Climate Change Conference host Egypt release hunger-striking political prisoner Alaa Abd El Fattah.
"Human rights and climate movements are stronger when we stand in solidarity together."
El Fattah, who is Egyptian-British, has been jailed almost continuously for the past decade for his activism, especially his prominent role in the Arab Spring pro-democracy uprisings that swept the Middle East in the early 2010s. He is currently serving a five-year sentence after being convicted of spreading "false news undermining national security," a common charge against activists in Egypt.
El Fattah's health has dangerously deteriorated as a result of the hunger strike he's been on since April 2 to protest the torture--including brutal beatings and solitary confinement--and other abuses he says he's endured at the hands of authoritarian President Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's forces.
"It is depressing to see that human life is at risk," Scholz told reporters in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt on Tuesday. "A decision needs to be taken, a release has to be made possible so that it doesn't come to it that the hunger striker dies."
\u201cAs Egypt hosts #COP27 let\u2019s not forget the estimated 60,000 political prisoners held there. \n\nWe join the calls to release Alaa Abd El Fattah who is on hunger strike right now. #FreeAlaa \n\nWe also want to shine a light on some of those in prison here in the UK in this thread:\ud83e\uddf5\u201d— Extinction Rebellion UK \ud83c\udf0d (@Extinction Rebellion UK \ud83c\udf0d) 1667770412
Referring to the U.N. climate conference, Thunberg wrote on Twitter that "during COP27, we urge the Egyptian authorities to immediately and unconditionally release all those held simply for peacefully exercising their human rights, implementing criteria set by local NGOs for these releases: fairness, transparency, inclusiveness, and urgency. One of these prisoners is Alaa Abd El Fattah."
"A system that doesn't address the needs for climate justice and securing human rights is a system that has failed everyone--we need to keep both in mind," the 19-year-old Fridays for Future founder added. "Human rights and climate movements are stronger when we stand in solidarity together. There is no climate justice without social justice and human rights."
On Tuesday, Amr Darwish, an Egyptian lawmaker with close ties to el-Sisi, confronted El Fattah's sister, Sanaa Seif, as she spoke at a press briefing, accusing her of "inciting foreign countries to put pressure on Egypt" before being escorted away by security.
Human rights groups have sounded the alarm in recent months over the Egyptian government's persecution of climate activists, as well as voicing concerns that the official app being used at COP27 could be exploited to spy on environmentalists and other dissidents.
With a month to go until Egypt hosts the United Nations Climate Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Canadian author, social activist, and filmmaker Naomi Klein on Friday drew attention to the human rights crimes and greenwashing committed by the country's dictatorship.
"This summit is going well beyond greenwashing a polluting state; it's greenwashing a police state."
In a deep-dive article published by The Intercept, Klein centers the story of Alaa Abd El Fattah, an Egyptian-Briton who is "arguably Egypt's highest-profile political prisoner" and has been jailed "almost continuously for the past decade" for his activism, especially his prominent role in the Arab Spring pro-democracy uprisings that swept the Middle East in the early 2010s.
El Fattah is currently serving a five-year sentence after being convicted of spreading "false news undermining national security," a common charge against activists. His health has dangerously deteriorated as a result of the hunger strike he's been on since April 2 to protest the torture--including brutal beatings and solitary confinement--and other abuses perpetrated by his jailers.
Klein asks, "If international solidarity is too weak to save Alaa--an iconic symbol of a generation's liberatory dreams--what hope do we have of saving a habitable home?"
\u201cA must read and vital resource for understanding #COP27 in Egypt.\u201d— Mohammed Rafi Arefin (@Mohammed Rafi Arefin) 1665153247
The author zooms out to "the estimated 60,000 other political prisoners behind bars in Egypt where barbaric forms of torture reportedly take place on an 'assembly line'" and the "Egyptian human rights and environmental activists, as well as critical journalists and academics, who have been harassed, spied on, and barred from travel as part of what Human Rights Watch calls Egypt's 'general atmosphere of fear' and 'relentless crackdown on civil society.'"
Klein asserts that "it's hard [to] not think of the courageous youth leaders of the Arab Spring, many of them now prematurely aged by over a decade of state violence and harassment, systems that are lavishly bankrolled by military aid from Western powers, particularly the U.S."
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"Led by Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who seized power in a military coup in 2013 (and has held on to it through sham elections ever since), the regime is, according to human rights organizations, one of the most brutal and repressive in the world," Klein writes.
As such, she says the conference, COP27, will "have no authentic local partners" or "counter-summits where locals get to school international delegates about the truth behind their government's PR facade," because "organizing events like this would land Egyptians in prison for spreading 'false news' or for violating the protest ban--that is, if they aren't already there."
"International delegates can't even read up much on current pollution and environmental despoliation in Egypt ahead of the summit in academic or NGO reports because of a draconian 2019 law that requires researchers to get government permission before releasing information considered 'political,'" she adds.
"This summit is going well beyond greenwashing a polluting state; it's greenwashing a police state," Klein says. "And with fascism on the march from Italy to Brazil, that is no small matter."
\u201cThis new wave in the lead up to #COP27 follows years of persistent and sustained crackdowns on human rights defenders using security as a pretext to undermine the legitimate rights of civil society to participate in public affairs in #Egypt.\u201d— Mary Lawlor UN Special Rapporteur HRDs (@Mary Lawlor UN Special Rapporteur HRDs) 1665154005
"So far, hosting the summit has proved nothing short of a bonanza for Sisi, a man [former U.S. President] Donald Trump reportedly referred to as 'my favorite dictator,'" Klein writes, citing a rise in tourism and investment, including by an entity backed by the U.K. government--despite El Fattah's British citizenship.
"There may still be time... for the summit to become a searchlight that illuminates the many connections between surging authoritarianism and climate chaos."
"The clear implication has been that the summit is too serious and too important to be sidetracked by the supposedly small matter of the host country's shocking human rights record," Klein concludes. "The terrorized lives, brutalized bodies, and silenced truths have been treated, for the most part, as embarrassing collateral damage, an unfortunate price that needs paying in order to make climate progress."
Klein ends on a hopeful note: "There may still be time to change that sinister script, for the summit to become a searchlight that illuminates the many connections between surging authoritarianism and climate chaos around the world... There is still time to use the extreme conditions under which the summit will take place to make the case that climate justice--whether inside countries or between them--is impossible without political freedoms."
"There is still power and leverage to be organized and exercised," she insists. "The hour is late, but there is still just enough time to get this right. Human Rights Watch argues that the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat, which sets the rules for these summits, should 'develop human rights criteria that countries hosting future COPs must commit to meeting as part of the host agreement.'"
"That's too late for this summit," Klein adds, "but it's not too late for all of those who are concerned about climate justice to show solidarity with the revolutionaries who inspired millions around the world a decade ago when they toppled a tyrant."