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"In Brazil and elsewhere, legal actions against Israelis suspected of crimes in Gaza are necessary and overdue," wrote the United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories.
A former Israeli solider vacationing in Brazil fled the country with the help of the Israeli government after the Hind Rajab Foundation, which is named for a 5-year-old girl believed to have been killed by Israeli tank fire Gaza, filed a complaint against the man alleging he had participated in war crimes, prompting a police investigation.
A Brazilian judge ordered police to investigate the soldier last week, according to Brazilian media, based on the complaint brought by the Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF), which accused "the suspect of participating in massive demolitions of civilian homes in Gaza during a systematic campaign of destruction," per a Friday statement from the foundation.
The group, which is "dedicated to the quest for justice in response to the crimes against humanity, war crimes, and human rights violations perpetrated by the Israeli state against Palestinians," also added in their statement that the evidence in the complaint includes "includes video footage, geolocation data, and photographs showing the suspect personally planting explosives and participating in the destruction of entire neighborhoods."
According to CNN, the Israeli foreign ministry said Sunday that "following an attempt last weekend by anti-Israeli elements to investigate a discharged Israeli soldier who visited Brazil, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar immediately activated the Foreign Ministry to ensure that the Israeli citizen was not in danger."
The foreign ministry also Sunday warned Israelis "that anti-Israeli elements may exploit" social media posts "regarding their military service."
The outlet Informed Consent noted that there is a similar case unfolding in Chile.
In November, after months of deliberation, the International Criminal Court formally issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri.
Neither the U.S. nor Israel recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, and the U.S. has rejected the ICC warrant; however, other countries have indicated they would honor it.
The International Court of Justice is separately probing allegations that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.
Francesca Albanese—the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories—wrote on X Sunday that "in Brazil and elsewhere, legal actions against Israelis suspected of crimes in Gaza are necessary and overdue."
Democracies can survive and overcome the rise of authoritarian threats when they employ comprehensive and bold actions that balance justice with pathways for societal reintegration.
In 1937 after establishing the Estado Novo, or New State, socialist President Getúlio Vargas, faced with 500,000 fascists, the Integralists, on his doorstep, took radical action to prevent a fascist takeover, eventually leading to a democratic transition in 1945. Less than three decades later, socialist President João Goulart faced a resurgence of fascist sentiment, and after failing to take action, was promptly toppled, with American help.
Today, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Brazilian democracy face the same threats as Vargas and Goulart. Once again, radical action is the only thing standing between progress, and fascism.
Recent events in Brazil underscore the existential threat facing an increasingly fragile democracy. The indictment of former President Jair Bolsonaro and 36 military leaders, including former ministers, by the Polícia Federal, for an alleged coup and assassination plot, reveals a coordinated and escalating strategy by the fascist right. Bolsonaro and his movement venerate the military dictatorship, and the core tenets of fascist ideology, including militarism, destroying leftist opposition and “decadence,” hyper-masculinity, and authoritarianism. This is a dangerous insurgency against democracy, freedom, and progress.
Lula must take inspiration from Vargas’ bold action and learn from Goulart’s demise, leveraging the full weight of the state to dismantle the fascist infrastructure that threatens the country.
The insurgency’s leaders have shown themselves willing to use their supporters for violent anti-democratic action. Just last month, a failed terrorist attack in Brasília underscored the lengths to which these extremists are willing to go. The incident echoes the January 8 insurrection, where thousands of rioters, incited by Bolsonaro and his government, stormed the headquarters of all three branches of government, laying siege to Brazil’s democratic institutions. In Rio de Janeiro, militias backed by the Bolsonaro family have killed leftist politicians, and fascist supporters have attacked and intimidated Workers’ Party voters. These are not isolated incidents of political violence, but a clear signal that the threat is boiling over.
To navigate this moment, Lula must consider the lessons of Brazil’s history.
Brazil’s history provides two starkly contrasting examples of how leaders have faced fascist threats: Getúlio Vargas’ campaign against the Integralists and João Goulart’s failure to confront a brewing coup. These lessons are not merely academic—they offer a blueprint for President Lula as he navigates the current crisis.
In the 1930s, Vargas faced a powerful and organized threat from the Brazilian Integralist Action (AIB) front, a fascist movement inspired by European models like Benito Mussolini’s Italy and Adolf Hitler’s Germany. The Integralists were highly organized, funded, armed, and bolstered by significant public support, even gaining some seats in government and support in the armed forces.
Yet Vargas, after attempting to bring them into a big-tent state—similar to Lula welcoming anti-coup conservatives after his 2022 victory—recognized the threat Brazil faced. When the Integralists went to the Guanabara Palace and attempted to kill Vargas and take over the government in 1938, Vargas responded decisively, crushing their rebellion and ensuring that Brazil’s institutions would not be undermined by fascism. Despite first attempting to integrate the Integralists into a big-tent democracy, Vargas understood that in the face of an existential threat, bold action was necessary to safeguard the nation. Vargas’ actions were informed by his own socialist ideological roots—which manifested in his popular armed struggle which he led against the preceding military dictatorship and oligarchy.
Contrast Vargas’ actions with those of President João Goulart, also a socialist, who, in the early 1960s, faced a growing movement of reactionary military and political elites intent on removing him from power. Goulart hesitated, seeking compromise and reconciliation with forces that had no interest in negotiating in good faith. His inaction and failure to consolidate power allowed the right-wing military coup of 1964, with American support, to unfold, plunging Brazil into two decades of military dictatorship. Goulart’s downfall is a cautionary tale for Lula.
Lula must take inspiration from Vargas’ bold action and learn from Goulart’s demise, leveraging the full weight of the state to dismantle the fascist infrastructure that threatens the country. This is not a time for half-measures or concessions but for strategic and decisive leadership. The stakes could not be higher, and history is watching.
To neutralize the fascist threat, President Lula must first employ a two-pronged approach: holding the architects of the Brazilian fascist movement accountable while offering a path to redemption for those willing to abandon extremism. The message is simple: Support democracy, or get crushed.
The January 8 insurrection revealed the spectrum of actors involved in the coup attempt. Figures like Anderson Torres, Bolsonaro’s former justice and public security minister, were arrested for their roles in facilitating the attack. Torres’ failure to act on intelligence of impending violence—and the shocking discovery of a draft decree in his home to overturn the 2022 election results—made him a clear target for prosecution.
Meanwhile, many of the rioters, such as those who voluntarily turned themselves in and cooperated with authorities, were given opportunities to negotiate reduced penalties. This demonstrated that the government could balance accountability with reconciliation, dividing hardline extremists from those susceptible to redemption.
A similar carrot-and-stick approach is now needed on a larger scale. The masterminds behind the current wave of anti-democratic activities—military leaders plotting coups, politicians like Bolsonaro who fan the flames of extremism, and financiers who enable violence—must face swift and uncompromising justice. Their actions represent a clear and present danger to Brazil’s democracy and cannot go unpunished.
However, for the millions of Bolsonaro supporters and lower-level participants who may have been misled or coerced into action, unless they resort to violence, no action should be taken against them. The goal is to go after those spinning the wheels of fascism for their own gain, rather than the millions of victims, ordinary people, who fall prey to manipulative propaganda, mostly a byproduct of their own socio-economic and material conditions.
This would not be the first time a democracy has taken radical action to protect itself from existential threats. History is replete with examples of governments in advanced democracies acting decisively against internal dangers. Post-war Germany dismantled Nazi influence through denazification while offering paths to reintegration for lesser participants and followers, creating the Federal Republic of Germany. Spain transitioned to democracy after Francisco Franco’s death by implementing reforms, appointing a democratic head of government, and negotiating peace to stabilize the nation. France, similarly, purged Vichy collaborators before facilitating national republican unity. In post-dictatorship South Korea, democratic accountability was reinforced by prosecuting former fascist leaders while balancing this with pardons to promote reconciliation.
Similarly, in late 2022 in Peru, President Pedro Castillo’s attempt to dissolve Congress and establish autocratic rule was quashed Although Castillo’s power grab was less coordinated and less dangerous than the ongoing fascist threat in Brazil, Peruvian democratic authorities acted decisively, removing him from office and arresting him within hours.
These cases demonstrate that democracies can survive and overcome the rise of authoritarian threats when they employ comprehensive and bold actions that balance justice with pathways for societal reintegration.
After an appropriate targeting of coup plotters and insurrectionists is conducted, Lula can then use his democratic powers to engender key reforms to prevent a fascist coup from ever happening again.
While holding Jair Bolsonaro and his allies accountable is essential, the true force potential behind a coup lies with Brazil’s military leaders. Bolsonaro’s rhetoric and actions have long exploited military sympathies, and the January 8 insurrection demonstrated how quickly fascist elements can pivot to using violence against the state. Without addressing the military’s role in enabling these threats, any attempt to neutralize the fascist movement will fall short.
A critical step in this process is reforming Brazil’s Constitution, particularly Article 142. Bolsonaro and his supporters have misused this article, which ambiguously outlines the military’s role in ensuring “the defense of the country, for the guarantee of the constitutional powers, and, on the initiative of any of these, of law and order,” to justify anti-democratic actions. Bolsonaro himself has discussed the invocation of Article 142 to justify a military coup, including with his own cabinet and supporters. Reforming Article 142 is essential to removing this tool of democratic sabotage. The 1988 Constitution allows for these changes to be introduced by the president, and passed through Congress—though a public referendum could help circumvent this process.
Brazil must bring the military fully under civilian control to eliminate the persistent threat of coups. Currently, over 6,000 military officers hold office in the Brazilian state, and hold significant sway over the country’s democratic affairs, going against the very foundation of the Brazilian republic.
Democracies with politically influential militaries—such as Thailand and Pakistan—offer stark warnings. In both countries, military interference has led to repeated political instability, undermining democratic governance and creating cycles of authoritarianism. Both countries have faced repeated military coups, despite operating as democracies.
Thailand’s 2017 Constitution was almost entirely written by the military, reserving seats for officers in the Senate and including military support as a necessary sign-on for any legislation. Kemalist Turkey, Egypt and Myanmar are also powerful reminders that weak democracies can be brought back into dictatorship easily when military forces hold significant democratic power, performing coups whenever the military does not like democratic outcomes. Diminishing the military’s political power and promoting civilian oversight is essential to prevent these outcomes.
Implementing these principles does not weaken democracy; it merely strengthens it.
As the possibility of jail time looms for Jair Bolsonaro and other far-right leaders, their followers may become even more desperate, deciding to enact their violent plan for fascism. The arrest of Bolsonaro’s minister of defense, Walter Braga Neto, only solidifies this urgency. Time is not on Lula’s side. The longer he delays, the greater the likelihood that these actors will strike, pushing Brazil further into instability.
To preserve democracy and protect the progress Brazil has achieved, Lula must learn from his countrymen’s past failures and act swiftly to neutralize this fascist threat before it metastasizes into a full-blown fascist entity.
Trump’s alliance with these extremist authoritarian populists should worry supporters of democracy, the rule of law, and human rights everywhere.
Last week, a far-right politician, Francisco Wanderley, from now-banned former President Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, detonated bombs at Brazil’s Supreme Court. The terrorist attack manifested growing tendencies for violence among Brazil’s far-right against the country’s democratic institutions, which they allege are “infiltrated by communists,” requiring them to “save Brazil.”
The attack comes nearly two years after the storming of the three branches of government in the Brazilian capital by Bolsonaro supporters attempting to overturn a fair and free democratic election, a tenet of fascism. These incidents will get increasingly more common, more dangerous, and are being egged on by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, in the U.S. and Brazil.
With Trump’s second term two months away, the far-right in Brazil has been coordinating to become increasingly authoritarian, aiming to destroy democracy for its own gain.
Brazilian far-right leaders’ rhetoric and policies contribute to a climate of intolerance and authoritarianism, undermining Brazil’s democratic foundations and threatening the rights of marginalized communities.
Bolsonaro, a staunch admirer of Trump, was the first world leader to celebrate his victory with effusive praise, calling Trump “a true warrior” against “globalists and the deep state.” He hailed Trump’s victory as a win for “true democracy” that will “empower the rise of the right and conservative movements,” ironic given how neither of them stands for true democracy or conservative values.
Bolsonaro also urged Brazilians to take inspiration from Trump’s resurgence, invoking divine intervention to complete Brazil’s “mission of freedom” and “reclaim its destiny of greatness,” echoing fascist language. The former president’s rhetoric is part of a broader trend within Brazilian far-right politics, which mirrors the U.S. far-right in its populist nationalism, disdain for “leftist elites,” and use of divine interventionist language to mobilize support.
This alignment was on full display when one of Bolsonaro’s sons, Eduardo, also a federal deputy with a large following, attended Trump’s election watch party at Mar-a-Lago, later wearing a MAGA hat. In social media posts, Eduardo, Flávio, and Carlos Bolsonaro claimed they would “defeat the left” and “liberate the country.” It is reported that Eduardo and Donald Trump Jr. are close friends. The Bolsonaros’ social media pages post daily Portuguese translations of Donald Trump’s speeches.
In recent municipal elections this fall, far-right parties such as the Evangelical Republicanos party and the nationalists with União Brasil achieved sweeping victories across large cities and rural areas, including in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, with the Federal District still dominated by the far-right. This marked a significant setback for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party (PT) and other leftist factions.
Despite Bolsonaro being banned from running for office until 2030, the former president has played a central role in shaping rhetoric and policy on the right, including pushing for tough-on-crime policies, removing secular government, removing Lula from office, and corruption. Still, beyond the Bolsonaro family, prominent right-wing governors, including in São Paulo (Tarcísio de Freitas), Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Paraná (Ratinho Júnior), Santa Catarina (Jorginho Mello), and Goiás (Ronaldo Caiado) will likely be frontrunners in 2026. They all have higher approval ratings than Lula.
Brazil’s far-right movement has increasingly embraced militarism and anti-democratic actions, escalating polarization and undermining public safety. Besides the 2023 insurrection in Brasília, Bolsonaro himself has called the military dictatorship “a very good period,” justified the state’s killing and torturing of counter-militants including former President Dilma Rousseff (whom he helped impeach), and has said he would stage a military takeover if necessary. Polling by Datafolha reveals that 51% of Brazilians believe Bolsonaro could stage a successful coup, while Pew Research finds that 41% of Brazilians would favor military rule. Bolsonaro and other politicians on the far-right have also allegedly been involved in a plot to kill Lula and top cabinet officials, according to Brazilian intelligence.
Brazilian far-right leaders’ rhetoric and policies contribute to a climate of intolerance and authoritarianism, undermining Brazil’s democratic foundations and threatening the rights of marginalized communities. Their agendas include systematically dismantling all environmental regulations, opposing LGBTQ+ rights, marginalizing minority communities through broad police violence (including support for militias and death squads), supporting economic policies that exacerbate extreme wealth inequality, defunding all public education and social programs, increasing the role of religion in the state, weaponizing the judiciary against political opponents, and weakening democratic checks and balances, often under the guise of protecting “freedom” and “security.”
The Bolsonaros have even proposed banning subversive ideologies like communism. Trump’s alliance with these extremist authoritarian populists should worry supporters of democracy, the rule of law, and human rights everywhere.
Misinformation through social media has also played a large role in amplifying the far-right’s appeal, with politicians including the Bolsonaros being extremely active and amassing millions of followers. The Reuters Institute finds that 66% of Brazilians get their news mainly through social media. Platforms like Elon Musk’s Twitter/X have become hubs for misinformation. Musk himself has stoked tensions with Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, tweeting in Portuguese, “One day, @Alexandre, this photo of you in prison will be real. Mark my words.”
Justice Moraes, who leads efforts to curb digital misinformation, has been accused by the far-right of censorship. However, Brazilian studies show that the vast majority of disinformation originates from far-right networks. Now, the Brazilian far-right, with direct support from MAGA and Musk, has framed any attempt to fight the disinformation as an attack on freedom of expression. Ironically, the Bolsonarist movement insists that they are “warriors for truth, freedom, and democracy.”
Just like with American MAGA, the Evangelical Church in Brazil has been another pillar of far-right support in the country. Edir Macedo, the founder of the Universal Church for the Kingdom of God, openly endorsed Bolsonaro in 2022, stating, “We evangelicals don’t have any doubts. We vote for Jair Bolsonaro.” The Universal Church and similar evangelical institutions wield significant influence, particularly in rural and impoverished areas, where they have propagated narratives linking progressive politicians to moral decay and criminality.
Macedo, this October, gifted an annotated Bible to Donald Trump. Political-Evangelical churches’ political endorsements and media presence have reached millions of voters and shaped public opinion to bolster the far-right’s agenda.
Brazil has also become a fertile ground for MAGA-backed organizations like CPAC Brasil, which serves as a conduit for the far-right to spread its messaging, funded principally by U.S. donors. Prominent members of the Bolsonaro family, including Jair, have attended multiple times. In 2023, the former president attended CPAC in the United States. Shortly before, Steve Bannon reportedly helped the Bolsonaros plan the Brasília insurrection. With Trump’s return to power, these financial and ideological pipelines are likely to expand, further entrenching the far-right in Brazil’s political landscape.
These factors all help construct a fast-moving machine for the Brazilian far-right, with support from the American MAGA world. As one political analyst told me, “Brazil is now the Americas’ largest democracy;” however, it might not be for very long.
We must remember that Brazil has only been a democracy for four decades, and Brazil’s own MAGA movement may lead it back into dictatorship. As the 2026 election draws near, the Brazilian people will have to decide whether to follow the trend of fascism, or return to being one of the most diverse democracies in the world. Whether indictments of key figures in the Brazilian fascist movements, including Jair Bolsonaro and top military aides to the insurrection, end up leading anywhere, also remains in the balance. For democracy’s sake, they need to be punished to the fullest extent.
Just like the U.S. helped plunge Brazil into a military dictatorship on March 31, 1964, a fascist U.S. administration may do the same again.