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What a Study of Oligarchs' Second Acts Heralds for Trump 2.0
They’re usually worse off during their subsequent terms in office. So are the rest of us.
Nov 13, 2024
On November 5, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th U.S. president. Trump is an oligarch—an economic or political actor who secures and reproduces power and wealth, then transforms one into the other. And now he is in the small minority of oligarchs across history who have had second acts—having lost power or wealth, they find a way back. What can we learn from those experiences that might inform our understanding of Trump’s second term?
To answer that question, we looked at the track records of three other business oligarchs like Trump who have served as heads of state or government since World War II. Business oligarchs begin their journey by accumulating wealth, then move to power.
In our book The Oligarch’s Grip: Fusing Wealth and Power, we wrote about Chilean president Sebastian Piñera. He served two non-consecutive terms in office (2010-14 and 2018-22). His second act was decidedly worse than his first. During his first term in office, per capita income in constant dollars grew by 14%, while life expectancy expanded by 0.9 years. Sure, there were controversies, such as the appointment of Pinochet-era figures as cabinet ministers and protests over the end of the school voucher system. But, in general, Chileans felt better off.
While we are hesitant to make any grand predictions for the Trump second term based on these cases, it does seem questionable that it will be any better than the first.
By contrast, Piñera’s second term was disastrous. Per capita income rose by only 2% and life expectancy contracted by 0.8 years. The Covid-19 pandemic played a role in these outcomes, but it wasn’t the only driver. Piñera’s poor handling of a second, larger set of student protests has also led to his relatively low ranking among modern Chilean heads of state. He died in a helicopter accident in 2024.
Trump has been compared to Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s three-time prime minister (1994-95, 2001-06, and 2008-11). We will focus on his second and third terms, which are longer. Per capita income expanded by 3.5% in that second term, and life expectancy grew by a remarkable 1.4 years. Ambitious goals aimed at constitutional and tax reform were thwarted, but, still, Italians felt better off, even if they narrowly backed a center-left coalition that removed Berlusconi from office.
His third term was dominated by the 2007-08 global financial crisis, the Great Recession of 2008-09, and the 2009-10 eurozone crisis. Italy’s economy was one of the most highly indebted in Europe, and higher interest rates led to a 6.8% GDP decline during 2008-09. Per capita income declined by 3.6% during this term, while life expectancy increased by 0.6 years. Having been ranked by Forbes as the 12th most powerful person in the world in 2009, Berlusconi resigned in 2011 as a deeply unpopular and polarizing figure.
A similar pattern of a poor second act emerges with Rafic Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister for two terms (1992-98 and 2000-04). Per capita income grew by a substantial 44% during his first term, while life expectancy expanded in the post-civil war period by 2.2 years. But when Hariri returned to office for a second term, results were much less compelling: income up by 16% and life expectancy by 0.6 years. Political tensions led to his assassination in 2005. His son Saad served two terms as well and also left office under a cloud. A third oligarch prime minister, Naguib Mikati, is in his third term and, given the recent Israeli invasion, is unlikely to have a successful ending.
Does history offer any relief from this picture of disappointing second acts? Not really. For example, Marcus Licinius Crassus—one of the Roman Republic’s richest and most powerful men, served as consul twice (70 and 55 BCE), both times with often rival and sometimes ally Pompey. The first consulship led to the Triumvirate Alliance of Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus. The second consulship led to Crassus being named governor of the endlessly wealthy province of Syria, where he was defeated by the Parthians and died in 53 BCE.
These examples suggest some preliminary findings and cautions. First, oligarchs’ second acts generally end badly. Sometimes, external circumstances drive this result. Other times, it seems that oligarchs don’t show much evidence of learning from their first terms.
Second, many oligarchs never serve in decision-making roles as heads of state or government like Piñera, Berlusconi, or Hariri. Some have agenda-setting power through political contributions or media ownership. Others have ideological power, shaping the way we think and act. Based on our dataset at the Center for the Study of Oligarchs, we are unaware of any oligarchs who had and lost those types of power who were able to regain it. We also don’t know of any significant cases of oligarchs losing their wealth and then recovering it.
While we are hesitant to make any grand predictions for the Trump second term based on these cases, it does seem questionable that it will be any better than the first. During that first term, per capita in the U.S. rose by 2.9% and life expectancy fell by a jaw-dropping 1.7 years. That record helped earn Trump a ranking as the worst president in U.S history, according to the American Political Science Association survey.
It is difficult to imagine how Trump will be able to successfully fight the dismal history of oligarchs’ second acts.
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Nations Urged to Bolster Biodiversity Plans by Enshrining Rights of Nature
"Just as the Human Rights Declaration paved the way for peace after WWII, we must now make nature's rights a global priority."
Oct 03, 2024
A report released Thursday, ahead of a summit in Colombia, argues that "recognition of the Rights of Nature and national implementation of Mother Earth-centric actions are critical for meeting the 2030 and 2050 goals of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework."
Finalized in late 2022, the framework aims to protect 30% of all land and water vital to species and ecosystems by 2030. The new publication urges governments to include ecocentric commitments in their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs), which are each country's proposal to meet the goals of the agreement.
"To halt and reverse the biodiversity crisis, nations must urgently transform their laws and societies to live in harmony with nature," said report co-author and Earth Law Center (ELC) executive director Grant Wilson in a statement.
"The Global Biodiversity Framework presents an unprecedented opportunity to advance the Rights of Nature and other transformative legal paradigms for the planet," Wilson continued. "For many countries, this could also mean receiving significant financial support, catalyzing a profound shift in how we relate to and protect the natural world."
"Acknowledging the Rights of Nature and Mother Earth should be at the top of the priority list of the biodiversity convention, not merely in the footnote."
As the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services explains, Rights of Nature "is a legal instrument that enables nature, wholly or partly, i.e. ecosystems or species, to have inherent rights and legally should have the same protection as people and corporations; that ecosystems and species have legal rights to exist, thrive and regenerate. It enables the defense of the environment in court—not only for the benefit of people, but for the sake of nature itself."
The new report emphasizes that Target 19 of the framework "seeks to mobilize at least $200 billion per year by 2030—from domestic, international, public, and private resources—to implement national biodiversity strategies and action plans," and "explicitly stipulates... funds will be available for enhancing 'Mother Earth-centric actions.'"
The paper was produced by ELC with support from End Ecocide Sweden, Keystone Species Alliance, Lawyers for Nature, and Rights of Mother Earth. It comes ahead of the next meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16), set to be held in Cali from October 21 to November 1.
"To achieve COP16's theme of 'Peace with Nature,' acknowledging the Rights of Nature and Mother Earth should be at the top of the priority list of the biodiversity convention, not merely in the footnote," said Rights of Mother Earth co-founder Doris Ragettli. "Just as the Human Rights Declaration paved the way for peace after WWII, we must now make nature's rights a global priority."
Noting that the paper shows "over 30 countries already recognize Rights of Nature through constitutional provisions, laws, or court decisions," Lawyers for Nature affiliate Jeremie Gilbert similarly said that "achieving 'Peace with Nature' requires incorporating these rights into biodiversity conservation efforts globally."
Just last week, communities in Chile launched a Declaration of Rights to protect the Biobío River "against mounting environmental threats." While the river is the first ecosystem in the South American country protected by such action, the declaration followed other recent progress on the continent, including a court decision in Peru that granted rights to the Marañón River and a ruling in Ecuador that found pollution violated the rights of the Machángara River.
The recognition of the waterway's rights in Chile is "a bridge that not only guarantees the inherent value of rivers and natural entities, but is also key to the full realization of the human rights of their communities," said Constanza Prieto Figelist, Latin America director for ELC.
"It is incredibly inspiring to see people from all over the world with diverse interests uniting to uphold the intrinsic value of nature."
ELC noted that Thursday's report "was primarily authored by law school and undergraduate interns working alongside sponsoring organizations. These youth advocates, increasingly vocal in their support of Rights of Nature and ecocentric law, will join the Earth Law Center delegation at COP16 to engage with governments on how to implement transformative Earth-centered policies."
Emily Zinkula, a Stanford Law School student who contributed to the paper as an ELC intern, said that "it is incredibly inspiring to see people from all over the world with diverse interests uniting to uphold the intrinsic value of nature."
"For many of us, nature's right to be protected feels intuitive," Zinkula added. "Seeing ELC and its partners tirelessly work to turn that intuition into a global truth is empowering. The recognition of nature's rights by global leaders gives much-needed hope, courage, and validation to a generation longing for it."
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Landmark Declaration of Rights Safeguards Biobío River in Chile
"A paradigm shift is necessary," said an advocacy group. "Let's recognize now that the Biobío River has value in itself."
Sep 25, 2024
Biodiversity and Rights of Nature defenders celebrated a "historic moment" on Wednesday as communities in Chile joined advocacy groups in launching the first Declaration of Rights protecting an ecosystem in the South American country, with the document aiming to safeguard "the rights of Chile's Biobío River against mounting environmental threats."
Communities located along the river—the second-longest in the country—joined environmental advocates, Indigenous tribes including the Pehuenche and Lafkenche people, and scientists in several months of "participatory dialogues" to determine how to protect the Biobío River from industrialization and other threats to the countless species it supports and to the river itself.
International Rivers, a group dedicated to protecting free-flowing rivers around the globe, said that the "cornerstone of the declaration lies in its profound acknowledgment of the intrinsic value held by the Biobío River" and its right to flow unimpeded by hydroelectic projects, disruptions to the riverbed, and other activities.
The Declaration of Rights affirms the river's right to:
- Adequate flow to sustain the health of surrounding ecosystems;
- Unhindered flow and connectivity from the mountains to the sea;
- Preservation of structural integrity, vital functions, and evolutionary processes;
- Safeguarding native biodiversity; and
- Ongoing regeneration and restoration efforts, fostered through enduring partnerships with riverside communities.
According to International Rivers, major concerns of riverside communities and Indigenous people who have deep cultural connections to the river include ongoing hydroelectric projects including the Rucalhue and Frontera Hydroelectric Plants, which would join three that have already been completed.
Another proposed plant is in the planning stages, and like the others would "jeopardize the river's flow and water quality, resulting in loss of native biodiversity and affecting fish migration and ultimately leading to irreversible damage," said International Rivers.
The riverbed structure and water quality have also suffered from both legal and illegal extraction of boulders, rubble, gravel, and sand that have been taken for use in construction, and ecosystem defenders have warned about the negative impact of proposed road infrastructure projects in the Biobío region.
Projects including the Concesión Vial Puente Industrial, a viaduct and road connection, and road projects such as Costa Mar and Costanera "would cause the total destruction of the wetlands of these localities," said the group.
"These developments underscore the inadequacy of the national legal framework in ensuring the protection of riparian ecosystems and citizen participation, lacking international standards that prioritize sustainable development in harmony with nature," said International Rivers.
Alejandro Gatica, a member of the community group Defensa Ribera Norte Chiguayante, said the Declaration of Rights "revalues and protects the water network," which is "in an environmental crisis due to extractivist actions on its banks, with uncontrolled logging, lack of protection of its wetlands, and the coastal project that threatens to intervene in its structure."
In a video about the Declaration of Rights, International Rivers said the Biobío "has been sadly silenced" by industrialization, despite the crucial support it provides to "multiple ecosystems and countless riverine and terrestrial species, many of them endemic," in addition to "water security and food sovereignty of its riparian communities for whom it is a crucial element in agriculture, fishing, and tourism."
"When we deny its right to flow we are silencing it. When we pollute, exploit, degrade, and urbanize it we are silencing it. When we block its access and connection to communities we are silencing it," said the group. "A paradigm shift is necessary. Let's recognize now that the Biobío River has value in itself."
The launch of the declaration "signifies a pivotal moment," said Monti Aguirre, Latin America program director of International Rivers.
"This initiative underscores our shared dedication to preserving this vital ecosystem amidst mounting destructive pressures," said Aguirre. "The well-being of the Biobío River, along with that of surrounding communities, is imperiled by the pressures imposed on its ecosystem, stemming from established dams such as Ralco, Pangue, and Angostura, as well as proposed hydro-projects and extractive activities."
The recognition of the waterway's rights is "a bridge that not only guarantees the inherent value of rivers and natural entities, but is also key to the full realization of the human rights of their communities," said Constanza Prieto Figelist, Latin America director for Earth Law Center.
The international Rights of Nature movement has celebrated several victories in South America in recent months, including a court decision in Peru that granted rights to the Marañón River and a ruling in Ecuador that found pollution violated the rights of the Machángara River.
"The Rights of Nature favor the incorporation of more powerful standards of environmental protection and citizen participation in environmental issues through, for example, the figure of representatives or guardians of nature," she said. "Likewise, comparative experience shows that they are a powerful instrument for combating activities that favor biodiversity loss or climate change."
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