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U.S. officials familiar with the planning said options for "reclaiming" the vital waterway include close cooperation with Panama's military and, absent that, possible war.
This is a breaking news story... Please check back for possible updates.
President Donald Trump has directed the Pentagon to prepare plans for carrying out his threat to "take back" the Panama Canal, including by military force if needed, two U.S. officials familiar with the situation told NBC News Thursday.
According to the outlet, the officials said that U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) is drawing up potential plans that run the gamut from working more closely with Panama's military to a less likely scenario in which U.S. troops invade the country and take the canal by force. They also said that SOUTHCOM commander Adm. Alvin Holsey has presented draft strategies to be reviewed by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is scheduled to visit Panama next month.
The officials explained that the likelihood of a U.S invasion depended on the level of cooperation shown by the Panamanian military.
Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out use of military force to seize control of the vital U.S.-built waterway, as well as Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.
Last week during his joint address to Congress, Trump proclaimed that "to further enhance our national security, my administration will be reclaiming the Panama Canal," but his administration has not clarified precisely what "reclaiming" entails.
The Republican president says the U.S. needs to retake control of the Panama Canal to enhance "economic security," and has falsely claimed that the waterway is "operated by China."
Earlier this month, the New York-based investment firm BlackRock led a group of investors in a $23 billion deal to purchase ports at both ends of the Panama Canal from a Hong Kong-based conglomerate, an agreement Trump dubiously seized upon as proof that "we've already started" reclaiming the conduit.
Panamanian President José Raúl Molina countered that "the Panama Canal is not in the process of being reclaimed... The canal is Panamanian and will continue to be Panamanian!"
The U.S. controlled what was formerly called the Panama Canal Zone from the time of the waterway's construction in the early 20th century—largely done by Afro-Caribbean workers, thousands of whom died in what's widely known as the world's deadliest construction project—until then-President Jimmy Carter transferred sovereignty to Panama in the late 1970s. Under the Torrijos-Carter treaties, the U.S. reserves the right to use military force to defend the canal's neutrality.
The United States has repeatedly used deadly military force in Panama over the decades, including during a 1964 student-led uprising against American control in which 22 Panamanians and four U.S. soldiers were killed, and in a full-scale invasion in 1989 ordered by then-President George H.W. Bush to capture erstwhile ally and CIA asset turned narcotrafficking dictator Manuel Noriega. The U.S. invaders killed hundreds of Panamanians, including many civilians.
Writing for Americas Quarterly this week, Panamanian jurist Alonso E. Illueca argued that Panama's efforts to appease Trump aren't working. These include the BlackRock deal and other moves like quitting China's "Belt and Road" initiative, taking in third-country migrants deported by the U.S., backing a U.S. resolution on Ukraine at the United Nations Security Council, auditing the country's ports, and revisiting a railway project originally developed by the Chinese government.
"Panama should abandon its accommodating policy towards the U.S., which can only lead to escalating demands to banish Chinese influence, to the detriment of Panama's national sovereignty," Illueca asserted.
"An alternative policy for Panama is to align with the rules based international order," he continued. "This includes establishing synergies with like-minded states which have been also affected by U.S. actions such as Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and Denmark. The country should seek to transcend the U.S.-China binary and find alternatives for alliances, which should include partners like the European Union."
"In short," Illueca added, "the way forward for Panama lies in replacing strategic dissonance with strategic clarity."
"The trade war Trump is igniting will weaken our economy and cause chaos in our marketplace as Americans pay the cost in the form of higher prices on everyday items," said Rep. Don Beyer.
As U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs took effect on Tuesday, Congressman Don Beyer released a Joint Economic Committee report showing that the policies could cost the average working-class family in the United States at least $1,600 annually.
"The tariffs Trump just imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China will raise costs by up to $2,000 per year for an average American family," Beyer (D-Va.) said in a statement. "The trade war Trump is igniting will weaken our economy and cause chaos in our marketplace as Americans pay the cost in the form of higher prices on everyday items."
Dean Baker, co-founder and senior economist of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, warns that Trump's tariffs could cost families even more than the estimates from Beyer's report, which cites figures from the Budget Lab at Yale University.
"While our report does not touch on this, these tariffs will also lead to retaliation that badly harms American producers," Beyer said. "And they will fail to achieve any of the pretextual objectives Trump has stated for imposing them. Less than two months into his term, Trump is running the economy into the ground and raising a real and growing risk of a recession."
Ignoring experts' warnings about impacts on consumers and the economy, Trump on Tuesday doubled his previous tariff for Chinese imports to 20% and—after a monthlong delay—hit Canadian and Mexican imports with 25% tariffs. As The Associated Pressreported, the moves sparked "swift retaliation" from "America's three biggest trading partners."
Leaders from those countries had warned of their responses if Trump followed through on his threats. There was also evidence of what would happen from the tariffs that the president imposed on China during his first term. At the time, Beyer's report notes, "U.S. importers and consumers paid almost entirely for Trump's tariffs through higher prices."
Trump has recently claimed that his plan will force production in the United States, but the report points out that the new "tariffs also impact the price of domestically produced goods by causing U.S. producers to raise prices if their supply chain relies on imported raw materials subject to the tariffs."
Using figures released Monday by the Budget Lab, Beyer's report warns that this time:
"In addition to harming the national economy, Trump's tariff policies will significantly impact state and local economies," the report says. "In fact, small counties in the South and Midwest tend to have economies that are most reliant on international trade. Those states that are heavily dependent on trade for statewide business may also be particularly impacted."
Despite the anticipated impacts of the tariffs that Trump has already imposed, he is expected to go even further, targeting the European Union and beyond. The Tax Policy Center warned in October that "a 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, one of many import tax ideas floated by... Trump, would increase household taxes by an average of nearly $3,000 in 2025."
Beyer—who serves on the panel behind the report and the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade—noted Tuesday that "Republicans in Congress could stop this at any time by passing legislation I and others have offered to rein in Trump's abuses of tariff authorities, but they appear content to help Trump raise prices and risk economic disaster."
Separately, Beyer and every other Democrat on the subcommittee released a joint statement stressing that "Americans simply cannot afford to be caught in endless trade wars" and that they "are united in rejecting these irresponsible tariffs designed to increase revenue for more tax cuts for the ultrawealthy."
Republicans control not only the White House but also both chambers of Congress, and GOP House members last month advanced a budget resolution that would fund an extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts for the rich by slashing health and food assistance programs that help millions of working-class Americans.
Beyer and his subcommittee colleagues called on House Republicans "to work with us to reassert Congress' role in setting strategic, stable trade policies and to invest in the American economy, instead of abdicating their responsibilities to President Trump and Elon Musk," the billionaire leading the administration's effort to gut the federal government.
After a monthlong delay, Trump administration tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports went into effect Tuesday.
As the Trump administration's purge of federal workers continues and tariffs imposed on key U.S. trade partners Mexico and Canada take effect Tuesday, multiple economic indicators are warning of potential pain ahead.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released an estimate for GDP performance in the first quarter of 2025, which showed an economic contraction of 2.8%. The "GDPNow" estimate is a model-based projection that is not an official forecast from the Atlanta Fed, but it does paint a different economic picture from just a few weeks ago, when the same model-based projection estimated growth of almost 3% in early February.
"Basically unprecedented for a new administration to inherit a strong economy and immediately tank it as both businesses and consumers internalize its agenda," wrote Bharat Ramamurti, a former deputy director at the National Economic Council, in response to the prediction from the Atlanta Fed.
Stocks also tumbled Monday after Trump announced that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect the next day. Trump also reiterated that the U.S. would impose an additional 10% tariff on China, on top of 10% tariffs that were already in effect.
Meanwhile there are also signs that consumer confidence is declining. The research group the Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Index for February on Tuesday, which showed the largest monthly decline in consumer confidence since August 2021. "Respondents to the board's survey expressed concern over inflation with a significant increase in mentions of trade and tariffs, the board said," according to The Associated Press. The retail giant Target said Tuesday that consumer confidence is waning, according to CNN.
In a video discussing the Atlanta Fed's "GDPNow" estimate, journalist Krystal Ball reminded listeners that billionaire Elon Musk, the man Trump has deputized to help oversee cuts to the federal spending and bureaucracy, said that the work of his Department of Government Efficiency would cause pain. Musk in October 2024 said that then yet-to-be-created body's work would "necessarily involve some temporary hardship," according to Vox.
The Trump administration has so far already cut tens of thousands of workers, but even if Trump successfully carried out his proposed mass firings of probationary workers (which a judge recently said were likely illegal), possibly impacting 200,000 people, that "on its own, is not recessionary," according to economist Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale University Budget Lab, who was interviewed by CNBC.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' February employment situation report will be released on Friday, and economist Dean Baker, who works for the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote Tuesday that the numbers "are not not likely to pick up much of the effect of the DOGE cuts." That's partly because the data will not capture the time period when many of the cuts went into effect, according to Baker.
The impact of tariffs, however, is more certain. China, Mexico, and Canada account for over 40% of U.S. imports, and key goods imported from the three countries include crude petroleum, cars, computers, telephones, and car parts and accessories, according to the The New York Times.
Tariffs are essentially a tax on imported goods that economists say are largely passed on to consumers.
According to analysis released in early February, the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that the tariffs that were previously announced but went into effect on Tuesday constitute the "the largest tax increase in at least a generation."
Taking into account the 25% tariffs on goods from Canada (aside from the lower rate for Canadian energy) and Mexico, and the 10% increase in tariffs on imports from China, "the direct cost of these actions to the typical, or median, U.S. household would be a tax increase of more than $1,200 a year."
After the Trump administration announced the tariffs on Mexico and China, which the White House said were being implemented to pressure the three countries into halting the flow of fentanyl and immigrants, Trump agreed in February to delay their imposition on Canada and Mexico for a month after those countries announced concessions.
The left-leaning economist Paul Krugman called the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two countries with whom Trump once helped negotiate a free trade deal, "a profoundly self-destructive move."
"It will impose huge, possibly devastating costs on U.S. manufacturing, while significantly raising the cost of living—without any visible justification," he wrote.