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climate finance
At COP30, Progress on Public Finance Is Critical for a Fair Fossil Fuel Phaseout
As ministers arrive in Belém for the final COP30 sprint, the world must move from words to action: That means ending fossil fuel expansion and unlocking the public finance needed to build a fair, fast, and funded energy transition.
Nov 18, 2025
At COP28 in Dubai, countries finally agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. That pledge signaled the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. But words alone won’t cool the planet, and in the years since, fossil fuel production has only continued to rise, driven primarily by rich countries.
As ministers arrive in Belém for the final COP30 sprint, the world must move from words to action. That means ending fossil fuel expansion and unlocking the public finance needed to build a fair, fast, and funded energy transition.
Oil Change International's recent analysis shows that just four countries—the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway—increased their oil and gas production by nearly 40% since the Paris Agreement, while production in the rest of the world dropped by 2%. These countries, despite their wealth and historic responsibility for the climate crisis, are dragging the world backwards. The impacts are clear: worsening climate disasters, rising energy costs, and growing injustice.
Meanwhile, the finance to support the transition is nowhere near what’s required. A fossil-fuel phaseout isn’t just about avoiding runaway climate change, it’s about making energy cheaper, safer, and more reliable in an increasingly unstable world. Cutting dependence on oil and gas shields countries from price swings, lowers bills, creates jobs, and supports climate-resilient development. But to ensure everyone shares in the benefits, international cooperation, and government planning and funding is key. This is illustrated by today’s fast but unequal renewable energy deployment, the energy access gap, and NDCs lacking concrete plans to phase out oil and gas.
A just transition is the only way to deliver real climate action. And it won’t come from voluntary pledges or corporate-led initiatives.
During the first week of COP two topics were at the center of discussions: Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva’s push for a road map to transition away from fossil fuels, and developing countries’ insistence on centering wealthy countries’ legal obligation to deliver public climate finance under Article 9.1. A road map cannot be successful without the latter. Massive investments are needed in grids and storage, energy access and just transition plans, particularly in developing countries, and private finance is poorly suited to meet these needs. It also adds to already unsustainable debt levels, while many Global South countries already spend more on debt repayments than on education, healthcare, or climate action. Rising debt is choking climate action.
And yet, the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, among others, are overselling the role of private finance in covering the energy transition bill. This not only disregards their legal obligation to provide public climate finance at a scale that meets needs, affirmed recently by the world’s highest international court. It also sets the world up for energy transition failure.
It does not have to be this way. The public money needed for a fair fossil fuel phaseout, a just transition, and adaptation exists. As rich countries cut overseas aid, while they increase their military spending, it is important to remember that governments have a choice. They can unlock $6.6 trillion every year through fair taxes, ending fossil fuel subsidies, cancelling unjust debts, and supporting reforms to the unfair global financial system.
COP30 offers a chance to course correct. Governments must stop issuing new licenses for fossil fuel extraction and launch a formal process to implement the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels. That means equitable national phaseout plans, support for just transitions, and an end to fossil fuel finance. It also means wealthy countries fulfilling their Article 9.1 obligations, and providing the public money needed for a transformation rooted in justice.
A just transition is the only way to deliver real climate action. And it won’t come from voluntary pledges or corporate-led initiatives. It must be driven by governments and shaped by people on the frontlines of the crisis: workers, Indigenous Peoples, and communities across the Global South.
Movements are rising to demand a fossil-free future that is equitable and achievable. At COP30, world leaders must choose whose side they are on. The choice is clear: Plan a fossil fuel phaseout, pay your fair share, and deliver a just transition for workers and communities, or fuel the fire while the planet burns.
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Climate Adaptation Failure Is the Next Debt Crisis for the Global South
This is the new face of global inequality: Countries that contributed least to the crisis are being made to pay twice—first through climate impacts, and then through debt.
Nov 11, 2025
As deadly storms ripped through the Caribbean, a new United Nations report delivered a sobering warning: The world is failing to prepare for the climate it has already created.
The UN Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report 2025, aptly titled Running on Empty, finds that developing nations will need between US$310 and $365 billion annually by 2035 to cope with intensifying climate impacts. Yet, international public finance for adaptation fell to just US$26 billion in 2023, down from US$28 billion the previous year. The result: Only one-twelfth of what’s needed is being delivered.
This gap is not an abstract number. It’s visible in the wreckage of homes, farms, and economies across our region. Last month, Hurricane Melissa, the strongest-ever storm to hit Jamaica, tore through the Caribbean, leaving destruction equivalent to nearly 30% of the island’s GDP. With at least 75 lives lost and damages exceeding US$50 billion, Melissa is not just another storm; it is a case study in the cost of global inaction.
A rapid attribution study found that climate change made Melissa four times more likely and increased its wind speeds by 7%, raising damages by around 12%. For Haiti, Jamaica, and other small island developing states (SIDS), such storms bring unbearable losses eroding livelihoods, tourism revenues, and vital infrastructure. These countries contribute the least to global emissions yet bear the highest costs.
Adaptation finance should not create more debt.
The pattern repeats globally. This year’s monsoon floods in Pakistan displaced 7 million people and destroyed thousands of homes. Whether in South Asia or the Caribbean, the message is clear: The failure to invest in adaptation is costing lives.
Adaptation is not a distant goal; it is an urgent necessity. It means building stronger flood defenses, adopting climate-smart agriculture, and developing social protection systems that safeguard the most vulnerable. Research by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) shows that every US$1 invested early in resilience saves more than US$5 in avoided losses. Yet, the world continues to spend far more on disaster relief than on prevention.
Every dollar delayed multiplies the human and economic toll. In Haiti, where communities are already grappling with political instability, weak infrastructure, and high poverty, each storm magnifies vulnerabilities. The Caribbean, with its densely populated coastal areas and economies heavily dependent on tourism and agriculture, cannot afford to treat adaptation as optional.
At COP29 in Baku, governments pledged through the Baku to Belém Roadmap to mobilize US$1.3 trillion by 2035, including at least US$300 billion annually for developing nations. On paper, this looks ambitious. In reality, it falls far short of what is needed. Adjusted for inflation, adaptation costs could reach US$440-520 billion per year by 2035, and the US$300 billion target covers both mitigation and adaptation, with no separate adaptation goal yet defined.
Adaptation finance was meant to help nations prepare for rising seas, harsher droughts, and lethal floods. Yet, when those funds don’t arrive, countries are forced to borrow. In 2023, 59 least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) paid US$37 billion to service their debts and received only US$32 billion in climate finance. These aren’t productive investments but emergency debts taken just to rebuild what has already been lost.
This is the new face of global inequality: Countries that contributed least to the crisis are being made to pay twice—first through climate impacts, and then through debt. And while the rhetoric of “resilience” fills summit halls, the financial architecture remains rigged against the Global South. Only 15% of adaptation finance in recent years has been delivered as grants; the rest comes as loans. For every dollar of “climate support,” developing nations are paying back many more in interest.
The IIED notes that less than 10% of global climate finance reaches the local level, while international credit rating systems penalize small and vulnerable economies for their exposure to climate risks making it harder for them to attract investment in resilience. These structural barriers are blocking climate justice.
So what should change?
Adaptation finance should not create more debt. Countries hit by climate disasters need grants, not loans, because these crises are caused by global emissions, not their own failures. Second, global lending rules must change. The IMF and World Bank should consider pausing repayments after major disasters. Forcing countries to rebuild while paying high interest is unfair and makes recovery harder. Third, regional cooperation must grow stronger. Shared projects prove that joint action works. Regional funds, supported by concessional finance and local expertise, can deliver faster results than slow global systems.
Adaptation is not charity. It is justice and economic common sense. Without equitable support and reparations, the Global South would sink further and keep on building the same roads and homes after every flood, hurricane, and storm. This is not only senseless but also highly unjust. It is time for the Global North to take responsibility, after all its only fair that the poor and vulnerable shouldn’t have to fix a crisis they didn’t create while drowning in debt.
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The Planet Wreckers Are Holding the World Back; We Must Call Them Out at COP30
Leaders have a choice: continue shielding fossil fuel interests, or stand with the majority of the world demanding a fast, fair, and funded transition away from oil, gas, and coal.
Nov 10, 2025
As world leaders gather in Belém for COP30, the stakes could not be higher.
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, despite the progress made the world has reached a breaking point. We’ve temporarily breached 1.5°C of warming, climate impacts are accelerating faster than even scientists feared, and people, especially in the Global South, are suffering the consequences. The past year has brought record-breaking heat, deadly floods, and wildfires from California to the Amazon. But despite the mounting evidence, the fossil fuel industry and a handful of rich countries continue to pour fuel on the fire.
According to our new analysis Planet Wreckers: Global North Countries Fueling the Fire Since the Paris Agreement, just four Global North countries—the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway—are responsible for nearly all of the global increase in oil and gas production since the Paris Agreement. While the rest of the world combined has reduced production by 2%, these four countries have increased theirs by almost 40%. The US alone accounts for over 90% of that increase, making it the undisputed Planet-Wrecker-in-Chief.
These rich countries undermine the commitments made at COP28, when the world agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Instead of leading the phaseout, they are leading the expansion: approving new oil fields, subsidizing fossil fuel companies, and blocking fair global finance rules that could help the Global South transition to clean energy.
The fossil fuel era is ending. The only question is whether it ends fast enough, and fair enough, to give us a livable future.
It’s immoral and arguably criminal. Keeping the 1.5°C limit in reach requires ending fossil fuel expansion and rapidly phasing out oil, gas, and coal production and use. The legal case for this has also been recently bolstered by international courts, including the International Court of Justice. Every new well drilled in Texas, Alberta, or the North Sea is a violation of international law and a betrayal of climate justice.
Meanwhile, the same countries hoard wealth while delivering pennies in climate finance. Since 2015, all Global North governments have provided only $280 billion in public climate finance, a fraction of what’s needed, and five times less than the $1.3 trillion in profits their oil and gas corporations made in the same period. The money to fund a just transition exists, but it’s in the wrong hands.
At COP30, leaders have a choice: continue shielding fossil fuel interests, or stand with the majority of the world demanding a fast, fair, and funded transition away from oil, gas, and coal, and lead on phasing out first and fastest as their historical responsibility demands.
That transition has already begun. From the first global conference on fossil fuel phaseout announced by Colombia, to countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America developing people-centered renewable energy pathways, momentum is building. The question now is whether the biggest polluters will step up or be remembered as the governments that chose profit over survival.
Belém must be the moment when leaders stop hiding behind greenwashing and false solutions. That means rejecting carbon offsets and “net zero” distractions; kicking fossil fuel lobbyists out of the talks; and putting justice, workers, and public finance at the center of the just transition. It also means solidarity with people fighting fossil-fueled violence, from Gaza to the Niger Delta, and demanding accountability for those who profit from destruction.
The fossil fuel era is ending. The only question is whether it ends fast enough, and fair enough, to give us a livable future.
If the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway continue to block progress, they will not only be remembered as the Planet Wreckers, they will be held accountable, by people, by history, and by the law.
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