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climate mobilization
With 1.5°C Goal 'Currently Not Plausible,' Study Calls for Focus on Deep Social Change
"In order to be equipped for a warmer world, we have to anticipate changes, get the affected parties on board, and take advantage of local knowledge," said one researcher.
Feb 02, 2023
Scientists at the University of Hamburg in Germany argued Wednesday that meeting the 2015 Paris climate agreement's goal of limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C is "currently not plausible"—but warned that despairing over climate "tipping points" risks taking attention away from "the best hope for shaping a positive climate future... the ability of society to make fundamental changes."
The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook assessed the planetary impacts of several "physical processes that are frequently discussed as tipping points." These include the melting of sea ice in the Arctic and glaciers at the North and South Poles; the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system of ocean currents that carries warm water upward into the North Atlantic; and "dieback" in the Amazon rainforest, in which rising temperatures would dry out trees and eventually change the forest landscape into a savanna, releasing billions of tons of stored carbon.
Those scenarios "are serious developments," said researchers at the university, but the melting of ice "will have very little influence on the global temperature until 2050." The weakening of AMOC and Amazon dieback will have a "moderately" greater influence on global temperatures.
"Human agency has a large potential to shape the way climate futures will evolve."
"By extrapolating current trends," reads the study, "permafrost thaw and Amazon Forest dieback are expected to release somewhat more than one year's worth of today's anthropogenic CO2 emissions between now and 2050. Thus, the contributions of these two processes to the remaining carbon budget are small. Since both will only moderately affect the global surface temperature, we deduce that they also only moderately inhibit the plausibility of attaining the Paris agreement temperature goals."
Such tipping points "could drastically change the conditions for life on Earth," but for experts, progressive politicians, and campaigners who share the goal of limiting planetary warming to 1.5°C—or as close to that as possible—"they're largely irrelevant," said Jochem Marotzke, a study co-author and professor at the university's Cluster of Excellence "Climate, Climatic Change, and Society" (CLICCS).
In other words, The Hillexplained, "Keeping global warming below 1.5°C—the goal set in the Paris agreement—is implausible for social reasons, not technical ones."
The researchers also examined 10 "drivers of social change" including media, United Nations climate policies, transnational initiatives, climate regulations, climate litigation, knowledge production, consumption patterns, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestment, and climate and social movements like the global Fridays for Future movement and Extinction Rebellion.
\u201cTo analyze the scenario, we assess 10 social drivers and 6 physical processes using our integrated CLICCS Plausibility Assessment Framework.\u201d— CEN Uni Hamburg (@CEN Uni Hamburg) 1675248518
With fossil fuel companies continuing to make long-term investments in oil and gas extraction even as they announce pledges to reach net-zero carbon emissions, and rampant consumption of carbon-intensive goods showing no sign of slowing down, the study says, corporate responses and consumption patterns "continue to undermine the pathways to decarbonization, let alone deep decarbonization."
A number of social drivers including social movements, climate regulations, and fossil fuel divestment were found to currently "support decarbonization, but not deep decarbonization by 2050," which is needed to attain the 1.5°C goal.
"There are promising reforms underway, especially at the E.U. level," reads the report, adding that "general and ongoing public interest in and focus on climate policies" is an "enabling condition" that could help strengthen global movements and ramp up pressure on policymakers.
The researchers' assessment of the 10 social drivers demonstrates "that human agency has a large potential to shape the way climate futures will evolve," tweeted CLICCS. "However, human agency is strongly shaped by injustices and social inequalities, which inhibit social dynamics toward deep decarbonization by 2050."
The study identified how human actions can help shift the current trajectory "toward deep decarbonization," including:
- The election of governments committed to climate action in countries including Australia, Brazil, Chile, Germany, and the U.S.;
- More engagement and influence of individuals and organizations with strong and independent climate science journalism, to help support societal mobilization for climate action; and
- Proactive communication from everyone interested in a more productive public debate on climate action based on social consensus.
"In order to be equipped for a warmer world, we have to anticipate changes, get the affected parties on board, and take advantage of local knowledge," said Anita Engels of the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability at University of Hamburg. "Instead of just reacting, we need to begin an active transformation here and now."
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Warning of Threat to 'Humanity' and 'Natural World,' Hawaii Legislature Becomes First in US to Declare Climate Emergency
"The climate crisis is a clear and present threat for both current and future generations," said Dyson Chee of the Hawaii Youth Climate Coalition.
Apr 30, 2021
Hawaii is poised to become the first U.S. state to declare a climate emergency after the Legislature's adoption Thursday of State Senate Concurrent Resolution 44.
The bill "acknowledges that an existential climate emergency threatens humanity and the natural world, declares a climate emergency, and requests statewide collaboration toward an immediate just transition and emergency mobilization effort to restore a safe climate."
It calls on the state to commit to "a just transition toward a decarbonized economy that invests in and ensures clean energy, quality jobs, and a statewide commitment to a climate emergency mobilization effort to reverse the climate crisis."
The passage was welcomed by Hawaii Climate & Environmental Coalition member 350 Hawaii, which declared on its Facebook page: "We are the ones the future generation is counting on."
\u201cShout out to 350Hawaii for this win! 350Hawaii + many others have worked tirelessly to ensure Hawaii becomes the first state to declare a climate emergency.\n\nNow for the other 49 states to get on board and ensure that communities of color are at the table. https://t.co/XZrrbtoVDo\u201d— Denali Sai Nalamalapu (@Denali Sai Nalamalapu) 1619789702
"Hawaii is the first state to join a movement largely led by cities and counties to declare a climate emergency which reflects the commitment our state Legislature continues to make to address the causes and the impacts of climate change," state Rep. Lisa Marten (D-51), who led the House version of the measure, said in a statement.
According to the Climate Mobilization Project, such declarations have been made by over 1,900 jurisdictions worldwide, including 144 within 24 U.S. states. Climate emergency declarations have previously been made by the Hawaii Island Council and Maui County Council.
Dyson Chee, advocacy director for the Hawaii Youth Climate Coalition, another member of the Hawaii Climate & Environmental Coalition, also hailed the resolution's passage, saying that "climate change is an emergency that needs to be dealt with accordingly."
"Every day we wait to take action is another day lost. The climate crisis is a clear and present threat for both current and future generations," said Chee.
At the federal level, President Joe Biden is facing calls to declare a climate emergency.
In February, Reps. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) joined with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in introducing the National Climate Emergency Act of 2021, which calls for investment in "large scale mitigation and resiliency projects" that advance "a racially and socially just transition to a clean energy economy."
"Our country is in crisis and, to address it, we will have to mobilize our social and economic resources on a massive scale," Ocasio-Cortez said at the time. "If we want to want to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past--if we want to ensure that our nation has an equitable economic recovery and prevent yet another life-altering crisis--then we have to start by calling this moment what it is, a national emergency."
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New Bill From Blumenauer, Ocasio-Cortez, and Sanders Demands Biden Declare a National Climate Emergency
The Sunrise Movement's executive director called it "a good sign that our leaders are finally understanding what young people and climate activists have been shouting from the rooftops for years."
Feb 03, 2021
In a sign that some members of Congress intend to hold President Joe Biden accountable for climate promises he made as a candidate, three lawmakers on Thursday introduced a bill directing him to declare a national climate emergency and mobilize every resource available to halt, reverse, mitigate, and prepare for this crisis.
"Scientists and experts are clear, this is a climate emergency and we need to take action."
--Rep. Earl Blumenauer
Reps. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) joined with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to spearhead the National Climate Emergency Act of 2021 (pdf)--which builds on a climate emergency resolution demanding a national mobilization that the trio introduced in the last congressional session.
"Scientists and experts are clear, this is a climate emergency and we need to take action," Blumenauer said in a statement. "Last Congress, I worked with Oregon environmental activists to draft a climate emergency resolution that captured the urgency of this moment."
"President Biden has done an outstanding job of prioritizing climate in the first days of his administration, but after years of practiced ignorance from [former President Donald] Trump and congressional Republicans, an even larger mobilization is needed," he added. "I am glad to work with Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Sanders again on this effort, which takes our original resolution even further. It's past time that a climate emergency is declared, and this bill can finally get it done."
\u201cThe National Climate Emergency Act that I introduced today with @AOC and @BernieSanders is the product of years of collaboration and work with Oregon environmental activists who continue to lead the way on bold climate action. #ClimateEmergencyNOW\nhttps://t.co/mSUe336wWd\u201d— Earl Blumenauer (@Earl Blumenauer) 1612467851
Ocasio-Cortez--who also led the Green New Deal resolution with Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) in the last session--noted Thursday that "we've made a lot of progress since we introduced this resolution two years ago, but now we have to meet the moment. We are out of time and excuses."
The National Climate Emergency Act recognizes that 2010 to 2019 was the hottest decade on record, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other pollutants have soared since pre-industrial times and are increasing at an alarming rate, and global temperature rise "is already having dangerous impacts on human populations and the environment."
"Our country is in crisis and, to address it, we will have to mobilize our social and economic resources on a massive scale."
--Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
"Climate-related natural disasters have increased exponentially over the past decade," the bill notes, "costing the United States more than double the long-term average during the period of 2014 through 2018, with total costs of natural disasters during that period of approximately $100,000,000,000 per year."
"Individuals and families on the frontlines of climate change across the United States, including territories, living with income inequality and poverty, institutional racism, inequity on the basis of gender and sexual orientation, poor infrastructure, and lack of access to healthcare, housing, clean water, and food security are often in close proximity to environmental stressors or sources of pollution, particularly communities of color, Indigenous communities, and low-income communities," the bill says.
These communities, the bill continues, "are often the first exposed to the impacts of climate change; experience outsized risk because of the close proximity of the community to environmental hazards and stressors, in addition to collocation with waste and other sources of pollution; and have the fewest resources to mitigate those impacts or to relocate, which will exacerbate preexisting challenges."
\u201cNew: Bill introduced by @repblumenauer, @AOC, @SenSanders directing President Biden to address the #ClimateEmergency as a national emergency https://t.co/pXOgfbmxWm\u201d— Dana Drugmand (@Dana Drugmand) 1612456585
As Ocasio-Cortez put it: "Our country is in crisis and, to address it, we will have to mobilize our social and economic resources on a massive scale. If we want to want to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past--if we want to ensure that our nation has an equitable economic recovery and prevent yet another life-altering crisis--then we have to start by calling this moment what it is, a national emergency."
The congresswoman's comments echoed months of calls from campaigners across the globe for a just, green recovery from the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Bolstering those calls, a recent United Nations report shows that while the world is on track for a temperature rise beyond 3degC this century, such a recovery could cut projected greenhouse gas emissions for the next decade by about a quarter.
"It is imperative that the United States lead the world in transforming our energy system away from fossil fuel to energy efficiency and sustainable energy."
--Sen. Bernie Sanders
The new legislation requires the president to deliver a report within one year of the bill's enactment, and continue the practice annually, detailing the executive branch's actions to address the climate emergency and ensure a habitable planet for future generations. The bill urges the pursuit of major mitigation and resiliency projects, including building and infrastructure upgrades, investments in public health and regenerative agriculture, and protections for public lands.
The legislation highlights that the United States is a primary driver of climate change, underscoring its responsibility to mobilize a response not only at home but around the world--particularly in frontline communities that have contributed least to the crisis but are already dealing with its consequences.
The bill also points out that "according to climate scientists, addressing the climate emergency will require an economically just phase-out of the use of oil, gas, and coal in order to keep the carbon that is the primary constituent of fossil fuels in the ground and out of the atmosphere."
Sanders, who now chairs the Senate Budget Committee, declared that "as we face the global crisis of climate change, in addition to other crises we face, it is imperative that the United States lead the world in transforming our energy system away from fossil fuel to energy efficiency and sustainable energy."
"What we need now is congressional leadership to stand up to the fossil fuel industry and tell them that their short-term profits are not more important than the future of the planet," Sanders added. "Climate change is a national emergency, and I am proud to be introducing this legislation with my House and Senate colleagues."
\u201cThank you to @repblumenauer, @AOC, and @SenSanders for your continuing support for an emergency-speed, national climate mobilization. More than 700 climate + justice orgs agree: it's time for Congress and @JoeBiden to take action on the #ClimateEmergencyNOW!\u201d— The Climate Mobilization (@The Climate Mobilization) 1612456424
Thanks to a pair of runoff wins in Georgia, Democrats now control both chambers of Congress along with the White House. The bill's introduction comes after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on MSNBC last month, "I think it might be a good idea for President Biden to call a climate emergency."
The legislation was lauded by a range of advocacy groups including 350.org, Center for Biological Diversity, the Climate Mobilization, Food & Water Watch, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace USA, Justice Democrats, Public Citizen, and the Sunrise Movement--whose executive director, Varshini Prakash, said that "this bill is a good sign that our leaders are finally understanding what young people and climate activists have been shouting from the rooftops for years--that the fires that burned our homes to rubble, the floods that took our family and friends with them, are a climate emergency, and bold action must be done now to save our humanity and our future."
Jean Su, energy justice director and attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, explained that "by declaring a climate emergency, President Biden will be able to redirect military funds to build clean energy systems, marshal private industry for clean technology manufacturing, generate millions of high-quality jobs, and finally put an end to dangerous crude oil exports."
Given that potential, Laura Berry, research and policy director for the Climate Mobilization, said that passing the bill "is a key next step to implementing a national climate response before it's too late--by declaring climate change a national emergency, President Biden must use the powers of his office to launch the whole-of-society mobilization we need to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels, and to build a safe and equitable future for all."
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