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consumer price index
Inflation Numbers Don't Alter Fears That Trump Has US Economy 'Barreling Toward Recession'
"Instead of trying to lower the cost of living, he's doubling down on his plans to give massive tax breaks to billionaires and giant corporations," said one Trump critic.
Mar 12, 2025
As the U.S. Department of Labor released its monthly consumer price index report on Wednesday, President Donald Trump's new tariffs for steel and aluminum imports took effect, highlighting his threat to the economy and working-class Americans.
The CPI, "a key gauge of inflation, showed that prices rose by 2.8% in February from a year earlier, driven by price relief from airfares and gas," The Washington Postreported. "That was cooler than the 3% annual gain reported for January and an unexpected signal of progress in combating high inflation."
While gasoline prices fell 1.0% and airline fares dropped 4%, the cost of food and shelter rose 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. The bird flu continued to drive up egg prices, which jumped 10.4%. The report adds, "Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, and personal care."
The White House celebrated the inflation data, but economists were quick to point out that the numbers don't account for the latest developments in Trump's trade war: the new tariffs taking effect on Wednesday—after chaos-causing mixed messages from the president on Tuesday—and Canada and Europe's swift retaliatory measures.
"It's a classic head fake," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told the Post. "Going forward, tariffs are going to increase the costs of manufacturing in general and autos in particular."
Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, similarly toldReuters that "trade wars are expected to raise prices in future inflation reports," though he also said the odds that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates "again this year once the smoke from the tariff back-and-forth clears increased today nonetheless."
Trump's trade policies and other recent decisions, including letting billionaire Elon Musk gut the federal government, have elevated fears of a recession—which one economist suggested naming after the president—and even sparked speculation that he is tanking the economy on purpose.
In a Wednesday statement about the CPI report, Groundwork Collaborative chief of policy and advocacy Alex Jacquez said that "while families are still struggling to put food on the table and a roof over their head, the administration's response is that they should raise their own chickens in their backyards."
"Every economic indicator suggests that President Trump has us barreling toward a recession and stagflation. But instead of trying to lower the cost of living, he's doubling down on his plans to give massive tax breaks to billionaires and giant corporations," Jacquez added, referring to congressional Republicans' efforts to send Trump legislation that would fund tax giveaways by slashing Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
In addition to Jacquez's comments, Groundwork and Data for Progress also released a poll showing that over a fifth of U.S. voters across the political spectrum are most frustrated with rising grocery costs. Another 10% are most frustrated with high bills for utilities like electricity, gas, and water. They were followed by around voters frustrated with out-of-pocket healthcare costs, rent or mortgage, or health insurance premiums.
Groundwork Collaborative warned that "Trump's threat of new tariffs risks making the housing crisis worse. By driving up the cost of construction materials, his trade war with Canada could shrink the supply of new housing, keeping overall prices high. That, in turn, forces the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, making mortgages more expensive."
The think tank also stressed that the Trump administration is "destroying affordable healthcare" by fighting to cut Medicaid and Medicare, reinstate work requirements, and limit Affordable Care Act enrollment; "raising energy bills" by freezing funds for clean energy projects while advocating for planet-wrecking fossil fuels; and "making groceries more unaffordable" by pushing SNAP cuts "instead of tackling corporate price gouging and market consolidation in the food industry."
Food & Water Watch similarly responded to the new CPI data by calling out failures to crack down on corporate price gouging—as detailed in the group's report from last week titled, The Rotten Egg Oligarchy.
"Record-high egg prices have everything to do with corporate greed," Food & Water Watch research director Amanda Starbuck said Wednesday. "While skyrocketing prices transform eggs into a luxury item, the food monopolies are seeing green. President Trump needs to get serious about lowering American food prices—starting with cracking down on the food monopolies exploiting the worsening bird flu crisis for profit."
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Dems in Congress Vow to Fight 'Inflationary Policies' of Trump
"Make no mistake: imposing new tariffs, mass deportations, and politicizing the Federal Reserve will lead to skyrocketing prices," said the Joint Economic Committee chair.
Nov 13, 2024
Leading Democratic lawmakers used new federal inflation data on Wednesday to renew their warnings about the economic threat posed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and pledge to keep fighting for working America—despite minorities in Congress.
"Democrats continue to fight to lower costs, and we saw promising signs last month that the cost of energy, groceries, and new vehicles stabilized. But with President-elect Trump in office, the reality for Americans' finances will become bleak," said Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), chair of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (JEC).
Throughout Trump's campaign against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, JEC Democrats released reports warning about Project 2025, a sweeping far-right policy plan for the next Republican president. Although Trump tried at times to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation-led initiative, it was crafted by at least 140 people who served in his first administration—and since Election Day, there have been clear signals from the president-elect's allies that "yeah actually Project 2025 is the agenda."
Heinrich said that "Trump and Republicans have led Americans to believe that their policies will lower costs, but make no mistake: imposing new tariffs, mass deportations, and politicizing the Federal Reserve will lead to skyrocketing prices. And that's only a sample of the inflationary policies Republicans have laid out in their Project 2025 playbook."
"Democrats have built a strong economy with smart policies that empower workers, grow the middle class, and lower costs for families. Meanwhile, Trump's policies will only help his CEO friends and ultimately lead to a weaker economy," he continued. "Democrats' commitment to families will not end because of a new Trump administration. We'll continue fighting to ease the financial burdens on families and ensure everyone across the country feels relief."
"American families cannot afford more Republican 'trickle-down' economics that throws the middle class under the bus while slashing taxes for billion-dollar corporations."
Congressman Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), ranking member of the House Budget Committee, responded similarly to the consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday, declaring, "Make no mistake: Trump's tariffs are taxes by another name—and it is hard-working American families who will pay the price."
"While today's report continues to show the progress we've made under the Biden-Harris administration, CEOs are already talking about raising prices for consumers in response to Trump's tax hikes," Boyle noted.
NPRreported last week that "forecasters at Pantheon Macroeconomics project that a 10% tariff would increase inflation by about 0.8 percentage points next year and impose an additional drag on U.S. manufacturers." Companies warning of price hikes if Trump's tariffs are implemented include AutoZone, Columbia Sportswear, and Stanley Black & Decker.
"I am deeply concerned that Trump's plans will force Americans to pay higher prices for everything from clothing to groceries," Boyle said. "American families cannot afford more Republican 'trickle-down' economics that throws the middle class under the bus while slashing taxes for billion-dollar corporations."
Steven Mnuchin, Trump's former treasury secretary, recently toldCNBC that tariffs, sanctions on Iran, and tax cuts will be top issues for Trump—despite Congressional Budget Office analysis that extending tax cuts the Republican passed in his first term to serve wealthy individuals and corporations would add $4.6 trillion to the national deficit.
"The top priority is extending the Trump tax cuts and the signature part of his program. I think that should be easy to pass in Congress, particularly if the Republicans control the House as well," Mnuchin said last week. Since then, decision desks have confirmed Republicans will retain their House majority, in addition to seizing control of the Senate and Oval Office.
Senate Republicans elected Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) as their next leader on Wednesday, just hours after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that, as expected, the CPI increased 0.2% in October and prices grew 2.6% over the last year. Economists said the data means the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates again next month.
Trump is set to be inaugurated in January and has suggested he may try to oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom he appointed in 2017, despite legal barriers. Powell—who has faced criticism from some economists and progressive lawmakers for holding off on rate cuts for so long, at the expense of the working class—seems prepared to fight for his job.
As Fortunereported Monday:
During a news briefing on Thursday after the Fed cut rates, Powell was asked if he would resign if Trump demanded it, and Powell simply replied "no." Later he was asked if he thought a president has the authority to fire or demote a Fed chair or other Fed official in a leadership post, and Powell said, "Not permitted under the law."
That exchange prompted Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) to post on X, "The executive branch should be under the direction of the president. That's how the Constitution was designed. The Federal Reserve is one of many examples of how we've deviated from the Constitution in that regard. Yet another reason why we should #EndTheFed.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk... then reposted it with a "100" emoji that indicates strong support.
Amid a wave of Cabinet picks, Trump announced Tuesday that Musk—the world's richest person and a leading supporter of his campaign—and fellow billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the not-yet-created Department of Government Efficiency, which will work to "dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies."
As Common Dreamsreported, Lisa Gilbert, co-president of the watchdog group Public Citizen, responded to the news by warning that "'cutting red tape' is shorthand for getting rid of the safeguards that protect us in order to benefit corporate interests."
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Watchdog Says the Fed, Not Inflation, Is Now the 'Biggest Threat' to the US Economy
"The Fed's continued high interest rates saddle people with debt, lock them out of the housing market, and threaten their jobs," said Rakeen Mabud of the Groundwork Collaborative.
Aug 14, 2024
The top economist at a progressive watchdog organization said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve has supplanted inflation as the greatest danger to the U.S. economy after new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index fell below 3% last month—the first time it has done so since 2021.
"Inflation is no longer the biggest threat to the economy, the Fed is," said Groundwork Collaborative chief economist Rakeen Mabud, citing the central bank's persistent refusal to cut interest rates in the face of glaring warning signs throughout the U.S. economy, from the worsening housing crisis to slowing job growth. Housing costs accounted for "nearly 90% of the monthly increase" in consumer prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"The Fed's continued high interest rates saddle people with debt, lock them out of the housing market, and threaten their jobs," Mabud said Wednesday. "The Federal Reserve should hold an emergency meeting and cut rates immediately."
The Fed's current target interest rate range is at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it has been kept for the past 12 months despite mounting calls for rate cuts from progressive lawmakers and economists as inflation continues to decline from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
"The Federal Reserve made a massive mistake in not cutting rates in July."
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said in a statement Wednesday that "the evidence is clear: Inflation is falling and wages are rising."
"It's past time for the Fed to secure this progress and begin lowering interest rates," Boyle added.
The next official two-day meeting of the Fed's policy-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is scheduled for September 17-18. After Wednesday's inflation reading, the central bank is widely expected to enact a small rate cut at its September meeting, which will be held less than two months before the presidential election.
Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has openly warned Powell against cutting rates prior to the election, apparently fearing the move would help Democrats.
Democratic lawmakers, for their part, have argued that a failure to cut rates "would indicate that the Fed is giving in to bullying" and "succumbing to political threats," as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) put it in a
letter to Powell last month.
In an op-ed for Common Dreams last week, Mabud of the Groundwork Collaborative wrote that "the Federal Reserve made a massive mistake in not cutting rates in July."
"Powell himself has admitted that interest rate hikes can't tackle the supply-side issues at the root of today's inflation," Mabud wrote. "And now the data are clear that he is taking the economy to the brink, despite low inflation and rising unemployment."
"Making people walk an economic tightrope is not the path forward to a healthy economy," she added. "The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain stable prices and full employment. It's time for the Fed to take that mandate seriously and make a large and immediate emergency rate cut."
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