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consumer price index
'Costs Are Out of Control': Trump's Iran War Pushes US Inflation to Highest Level in Three Years
"Trump is more focused on finishing his billion-dollar ballroom than lowering prices for American families," said one critic.
May 12, 2026
Federal data released Tuesday showed US inflation rising to the highest level it's been since May 2023, as President Donald Trump's Iran War has led to increases in the costs of both energy and food.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics finds that prices in April posted a year-over-year increase of 3.8%, above economists' expectations of a 3.7% increase, driven by energy prices that surged nearly 18% from April 2025.
The price of groceries also notched significant increases during the month, the report notes.
"Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in April," says the report. "The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.3% over the month as the index for beef rose 2.7%. The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.8% in April and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 1.1%. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.8% over the month and the index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.1% in April."
Economists said the new CPI report showed significant trouble ahead for American consumers, who last month registered record-low sentiment in the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, driven in large part by anxiety over price increases caused by the Iran war.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told The Wall Street Journal that "the American economy has entered a new chapter where inflation appears to have stepped up," and predicted that "median American families are going to find it very challenging to adjust going into the second half of the year."
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, observed that the cost of living in April rose above average monthly wage gains, meaning US consumers are no longer just treading water but falling behind.
"Inflation is now eating up all wage gains for the first time in about three years," she wrote. "This is painful for Americans and a true financial squeeze."
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers highlighted just how much the latest CPI report exposes the false promises President Donald Trump made during the 2024 presidential campaign.
"Trump campaigned on bringing down the cost of living 'starting on day one,'" he wrote, "and then: started a trade war; deported much of the farm workforce, bombed Iran, allowed healthcare subsidies to expire, cut food assistance, ran an interest-rate boosting deficit, and attacked Fed independence."
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) similarly ripped Trump's economic mismanagement in the wake of the CPI report.
"From his tariff taxes to his disastrous war in Iran, President Trump is making life even harder for American families," said Boyle. "Today’s inflation data confirms what everyone can see: costs are out of control, and President Trump is responsible."
The latest CPI data comes as a poll from CNN released Tuesday shows a record-high 70% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, with 75% of US voters saying the president's unprovoked war of choice with Iran has had a negative effect on their financial situations.
Trump's approval on the economy was a strength throughout his first term, even as polls showed him to be otherwise unpopular. As noted by CNN senior political reporter Aaron Blake, Trump's disapproval on the economy "never even reached 50% in his first term," but has now been at over 60% for the last year.
Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, said in a statement that "Trump chose to reignite inflation with his illegal and reckless war in Iran, and more than two months in, there’s no offramp in sight."
"Every day the war continues, prices climb higher and will stay there for months after it ends," said Jacquez. "As Americans continue to rank cost of living and inflation as their most important issues, Trump is more focused on finishing his billion-dollar ballroom than lowering prices for American families.”
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'Trump Is Deliberately Ruining the Economy': Inflation Soars Thanks to Illegal Iran War
“The toll of Trump’s war in Iran won’t stop at the pump,” warned one expert. “Price hikes on summer vacations, groceries, and electronics are coming."
Apr 10, 2026
New data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation soared in March thanks in large part to increased energy costs stemming from President Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran.
According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a month-over-month gain of 0.9% in March, led by a 10.9% increase in energy prices including a massive 21.2% increase in gasoline.
On a yearly basis, total prices rose by 3.3% from where they were in March 2025—the highest annual inflation rate since April 2024.
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers commented in a social media post that inflation in March was "up sharply, and there's more to come," while describing the data as "the first numbers showing economic effects of the war in Iran."
New York Times economics reporter Ben Casselman observed that the 3.3% rise in inflation was "the fastest inflation rate of Trump's second term," and that "the jump was driven almost entirely by higher energy prices, the direct result of the war with Iran."
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, flagged a particularly worrying aspect of the BLS report, which is that "wage growth is almost entirely eaten up by inflation now."
"Wage growth was +3.5% in March for the past 12 months. Inflation was +3.3% in March for the past 12 months," Long explained. "This is the squeeze many households are feeling. Their pay won't be able to keep up with this level of inflation. (And yes it was the same situtation in 2022)."
Elizabeth Pancotti, managing director for policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, said that the spike in inflation "comes as no shock to anyone who has filled up their gas tank in the past month," and predicted the damage wouldn't be limited to fuel prices.
"The toll of Trump’s war in Iran won’t stop at the pump," Pancotti said. "Price hikes on summer vacations, groceries, and electronics are coming down the pike as his war stokes chaos in supply chains around the world. By pursuing this illegal war, the president has made it clear that he’s putting American families last."
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) stated that "between the war and tariffs and general incompetence, Trump is deliberately ruining the economy."
The Republican Party tried to put its best spin on the numbers by boasting that core inflation, which excludes the prices of food and energy, did not rise as much as anticipated.
"Core inflation just came in LOWER than expected for the month of March!" the GOP wrote in a social media post. "President Trump continues defying the 'experts' and beating expectations."
However, the GOP's post got several angry replies from followers who argued that core inflation mattered little when energy prices are spiking and gas prices are averaging $4.15 per gallon.
As Vox senior editor Benji Sarlin noted, former President Joe Biden's White House regularly pointed to core inflation numbers while trying to ease voters' anxiety about rising prices, but with little success.
"Congrats to all the Trump White House folks explaining the difference between topline inflation and core inflation during an oil shock today, I’m sure the Biden WH alums will be very sympathetic," Sarlin wrote. "People on social media also love it when you say inflation is actually pretty good if you just exclude gas, try it out."
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Working-Class Americans Are Hurting—And Traditional Statistics Aren't Showing How Much
Recent data show the costs of groceries, healthcare, and electricity have all been rising faster than overall inflation.
Sep 22, 2025
With the rising cost of groceries, housing, healthcare, and other essentials a central issue facing communities across the United States due to the Republican agenda, one expert believes that commonly cited economic statistics aren’t capturing the depth of working families' struggles.
Gene Ludwig, former US comptroller of the currency under President Bill Clinton, is arguing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) no longer delivers an accurate portrait of families' hardships because it does not focus enough on the core costs that impact working people on a daily basis.
As reported by Bloomberg on Monday, Ludwig believes the CPI tracks too many goods that are either luxury purchases or are only bought sporadically. A relevant measure of inflation, he told the outlet, should primarily include goods that are essential to living, such as groceries, housing, healthcare, and energy.
Ludwig and his colleagues at the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity have developed their own measurement called True Living Cost (TLC), which focuses on core household needs and excludes items such as plane tickets and golf carts that are included in the CPI formula.
Prices as measured by the TLC have grown 1.3 times faster than prices as measured by the traditional CPI over the last 24 years, which may explain why US consumer sentiment has remained low even during times when the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation have been falling.
The biggest gap between TLC and CPI has been in measuring the cost of healthcare, as TLC shows that the rise in costs has been much more severe than what has been shown in traditional inflation statistics.
"In the CPI, medical care mostly measures reimbursements to providers made by private insurers and Medicare, in addition to patient payments, but the TLC tracks only households' out-of-pocket expenses and contributions to medical and dental plans," explained Bloomberg. "The CPI shows medical costs have doubled since 2001, whereas the TLC shows they’ve almost tripled, largely from a massive rise in premiums."
Ludwig's arguments about traditional inflation measures not capturing the true state of Americans' fiscal stability were backed up by a report from The Washington Post on Sunday, which examined recent trends in housing, healthcare, food, and utility prices, and found that all of them have been rising faster than the top-line rate of inflation as measured by CPI.
The Post cited the most recent CPI data showing that natural gas bills have risen by nearly 14% over the last year, while electricity bills have surged by 6% over the same period. Grocery prices also registered their biggest spike since 2022, thanks in part to US President Donald Trump's tariffs on imported staple foods such as coffee and bananas.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told the Post that these costs are not mere luxuries that people can sacrifice until their financial situation improves.
"It’s not that they have a choice," he said. "We’re talking about things that people must buy. They have to live somewhere... They have to heat their homes. They need lights."
A recent CNN report focused on factors related to the most recent spike in grocery prices and found that Trump's policies were to blame for at least two of them.
Most directly, CNN found that the tariffs on imported foods resulted in higher prices at the grocery store checkout line. Additionally, the Trump administration's crackdown on undocumented farm workers has harmed the supply of food that's grown domestically, which has also resulted in price increases.
And finally, CNN reported that droughts exacerbated by human-caused climate change have also hurt supplies of beef and oranges, which have led to further price squeezes.
David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, told CNN that Trump's current policy agenda "is more likely to increase the price of food" than make it more affordable.
Given the rising cost of staple groceries, many Americans have been turning to cheaper alternatives. According to The New York Times, sales of Hamburger Helper have grown by 14.5% over the last year, which is a sign that shoppers are bypassing more expensive cooking ingredients in favor of low-cost, easy-to-make meals.
Additionally, the Times report found that sales of foods that are "commonly purchased by consumers when financial times get tough—such as rice, canned meats such as tuna, and boxes of macaroni and cheese—have also been strong.
Sally Lyons Wyatt, global consumer packaged goods and food service industry adviser at research firm Circana, told the Times that US shoppers right now seem to be "looking for foods that fill them up for the least amount of money."
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