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"This is a near worst-case scenario for one of the most storm surge flood vulnerable regions in the world," one scientist warned. "I hate to say it but we're looking at a potential mass casualty event."
Officials in Bangladesh and Myanmar are preparing Friday to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people as a tropical storm turbocharged by the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis strengthens in the Bay of Bengal.
Cyclone Mocha is forecast to intensify further before making landfall on Sunday between western Myanmar and the Bangladeshi city of Cox's Bazar, home to the world's largest refugee camp. Roughly 1 million Rohingya people forced to flee Myanmar amid the country's ongoing genocide against them live in the highly exposed district.
"This is a very, very scary storm," tweeted environmentalist and author Bill McKibben, pointing to its severity and current path.
"The government of Bangladesh needs to develop an inclusive evacuation plan."
The evacuation of more than 500,000 people from the Bangladeshi coast "is expected to start Saturday with 576 cyclone shelters ready to provide refuge to those who are moved from their homes," The Associated Pressreported, citing government administrator Muhammad Shaheen Imran.
Bangladesh, a delta nation with more than 160 million residents, is already prone to extreme weather disasters, and that's increasingly the case as the warming Indian Ocean generates more intense and longer-lasting cyclones as well as heavier rainfall.
The impoverished Rohingya refugees living in Cox's Bazar are especially vulnerable to the incoming storm, and it's unclear how many, if any, of them are included in the Bangladeshi government's evacuation plans.
United Nations Refugee Agency spokesperson Olga Sarrado toldReuters that preparations are underway for a partial evacuation of the camp, if necessary. The World Health Organization is also setting up nearly three dozen mobile medical teams and 40 ambulances, along with emergency surgery and cholera kits for the camp.
\u201cCyclone Mocha has me very concerned. Everyone along the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast needs to be on alert. This is a near-worst case scenario for one of the most storm-surge flood vulnerable region in the world. I hate to say it but we\u2019re looking at a potential mass casualty event.\u201d— Nahel Belgherze (@Nahel Belgherze) 1683834677
"Still reeling from a devastating fire in March that destroyed more than 2,600 shelters and critical infrastructure, over 850,000 refugees risk losing their homes and livelihoods," the International Rescue Committee (IRC) warned in a statement. "Strong wind, heavy rains, and subsequent flash floods and mudslides could destroy shelters, community centers, and health clinics, depriving thousands of essential services and humanitarian aid."
"In preparation, more than 3,000 Rohingya refugees have been trained to respond to flooding and mudslides," said the IRC, which is "scaling up its emergency response in Cox's Bazar." According to the organization: "Three mobile medical teams will be deployed to remote areas in the camps and communities to provide emergency medical treatment. Additionally, a mobile protection unit designed for emergency settings will offer protection services to vulnerable groups such as women, girls, the elderly, and those with disabilities."
IRC Bangladesh director Hasina Rahman lamented how "time and again, we have seen the devastating impact of extreme weather events in Cox’s Bazar. Since 2017, countless shelters, schools, health clinics, and safe spaces for survivors of gender-based violence have been decimated as a result of floods and mudslides, as well as preventable tragedies such as the fire in March this year."
"As a low-lying country with major cities in coastal areas, Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climate change, which makes annual weather events—such as cyclones—more intense and frequent," said Rahman. "The impacts—loss of life, destroyed crops, challenges to livelihoods, damage to homes and infrastructure—are often borne by the people and communities who have contributed least to the climate crisis: Bangladesh, for example, emits less than 1% of global CO2 emissions."
While a rapid and just clean energy transition and other far-reaching transformations are needed to mitigate the causes of global warming, developing nations like Bangladesh cannot "cope with continued weather shocks without support that addresses the effects of climate change, such as early warning systems, anticipatory action, improving infrastructure to protect against flooding, and investment into climate adaptation," Rahman noted.
"It is crucial to fortify shelters and critical infrastructure," Rahman continued. "This involves using durable construction materials to strengthen community facilities like child-friendly spaces, learning facilities, and mosques, which serve as safe points during emergencies."
"Additionally, the government of Bangladesh needs to develop an inclusive evacuation plan in collaboration with U.N. agencies, humanitarian organizations, and the refugee and host communities," she stressed. "The plan should prioritize access to emergency shelters, ensuring family unity, and the protection of vulnerable groups, including women, children, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities."
The U.N.'s International Organization for Migration (IOM) observed that "last year, the camps escaped devastation from the Bay of Bengal cyclone Sitrang, which killed 35 people, displaced over 20,000, and caused over $35 million in damages in other parts of the country."
Cyclone Mocha, the first to form in the bay this year, "strengthened Friday into the equivalent of a category 1 Atlantic hurricane and is moving north at 11 kilometers per hour (7 miles per hour)," CNNreported, citing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. "The storm's winds could peak at 220 kph (137 mph)—equivalent to a category 4 Atlantic hurricane—just before making landfall on Sunday morning."
India's Meteorological Department on Friday projected that "a storm surge of up to 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) was likely to inundate low-lying coastal areas in the path of the cyclone at the time of landfall," including Cox's Bazar, the outlet noted.
To assist refugees and local host communities as they brace for Cyclone Mocha, IOM said that it "is strengthening camp infrastructure, preparing for medical emergencies, and supporting volunteers in cyclone preparedness."
The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) also expressed "grave concerns" about the storm's potential impacts on "already vulnerable and displaced communities" in neighboring Myanmar, where a military junta rules.
"Of particular worry is the situation facing 232,100 people who are displaced across Rakhine. Many of the [internally displaced person] camps and sites in Rakhine are located in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to storm surge," said OCHA. "The suffering of more than a million displaced people and other communities in the northwest is also expected to worsen over the coming days as the ex-cyclone moves inland bringing heavy rain. Displaced people in the northwest are already living in precarious conditions in camps, displacement sites, or in forests often without proper shelter."
In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis inundated Myanmar, killing more than 138,000 people, uprooting 800,000, and affecting 2.4 million.
"Extreme weather hazards will occur more frequently due to climate change in the years ahead. The linkages between climate change, migration, and displacement are increasingly pressing worldwide," IOM pointed out. "To avert, mitigate, and address displacement linked to climate disasters and strengthen people's resilience," the U.N. agency urged policymakers around the world "to implement sustainable climate adaptation, preparedness, and disaster risk reduction measures."
Despite knowing that extracting and burning more coal, oil, and gas will exacerbate the deadly effects of the climate emergency, profit-hungry fossil fuel executives are still planning to expand drilling with the continued support of many governments.
While COP27 delegates agreed to establish a loss and damage fund—after failing to commit to phasing out the fossil fuels that are causing so much harm—previous efforts to ramp up climate aid from the Global North to the Global South have fallen far short of what's needed due to the stinginess of wealthy countries, especially the United States.
However, around 180 other Rohingya are feared dead amid reports their overcrowded boat sank after setting sail from Bangladesh earlier this month.
The rescue of hundreds of Rohingya refugees by fishers and local authorities in Indonesia's Aceh province was praised Tuesday as "an act of humanity" by United Nations officials, while relatives of around 180 Rohingya on another vessel that's been missing for weeks feared that all aboard had perished.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said that "Indonesia has helped to save 472 people in the past six weeks from four boats, showing its commitment and respect of basic humanitarian principles for people who face persecution and conflict."
"We feel like we got a new world today... We could see their faces again. It's really a moment of joy for all of us."
"UNHCR urges other states to follow this example. Many others did not act despite numerous pleas and appeals for help," the Geneva-based agency added. "States in the region must fulfill their legal obligations by saving people on boats in distress to avoid further misery and deaths."
Ann Maymann, the UNHCR representative in Indonesia, said in a statement that "we welcome this act of humanity by local communities and authorities in Indonesia."
"These actions help to save human lives from certain death, ending torturous ordeals for many desperate people," she added.
\u201cPengungsi Muslim Rohingya Myanmar di Pantai Gampong Ujong Pi'e Muara Tiga Laweung Pidie @Aceh\u201d— Aceh (@Aceh) 1672056262
The Syndey Morning Heraldreports residents of Ladong, a fishing village in Aceh, rushed to help 58 Malaysia-bound Rohingya men who arrived Sunday in a rickety wooden boat, many of them severely dehydrated and starving.
The following day, 174 more starving Rohingya men, women, and children, were helped ashore by local authorities and fishers after more than a month at sea.
Mohammed Rezuwan Khan, whose 27-year-old sister Hatamonesa was aboard the boat with her 5-year-old daughter, told Pakistan's Arab News that "we feel like we got a new world today."
“We could see their faces again. It's really a moment of joy for all of us," he said of his family. Speaking of his sister, he added that "she thought that she would die in the voyage at sea."
\u201cStarvation, hunger and dehydration made them half. Rohingya betting their lives for survival by taking the dangerous journey via sea\u201d— Aung Kyaw Moe (@Aung Kyaw Moe) 1672113525
Babar Baloch, the UNHCR regional spokesperson in Bangkok, stated that 26 people had died aboard the rescued vessel, which left Bangladesh a month ago.
"We were raising alarm about this boat in early December because we had information that it was in the regional waters at least at the end of November," he said. "So when we first got reports that it was somewhere near the coast of Thailand, we approached authorities asking them to help, then when it was moving towards Indonesia and Malaysia we did the same."
"After its engine failure and it was drifting in the sea, there were reports of this boat being spotted close to Indian waters and we approached and asked them as well and we were also in touch with authorities in Sri Lanka," Baloch continued.
"Currently as we speak, the only countries in the region that have acted are Indonesia, in big numbers, and Sri Lanka as well."
According to the BBC, the Indian navy appears to have towed the boat into Indonesian waters after giving its desperate passengers some food and water. The boat drifted for another six days before it was allowed to land.
"Currently as we speak, the only countries in the region that have acted are Indonesia, in big numbers, and Sri Lanka as well," Baloch said. "It is an act in support of humanity, there's no other way to describe it."
Relatives of around 180 other Rohingya who left Bangladesh on December 2 said Tuesday that they fear the overcrowded vessel has sunk in the Andaman Sea. Mohammad Noman, a resident of a Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, toldThe Guardian that his sister was aboard the boat with her two daughters, who are 5 and 3 years old.
"Every day we called up the boat two or three times on the boatman's satellite phone to find out if my sister and her two daughters were all right. Since December 8, I have failed to get access to that phone," he said. "I know some other people in Cox's Bazar who made phone calls to the boat every day and stayed in contact with their relatives there. None of them has succeeded to reach the phone after December 8."
\u201cAt least 180 Rohingya feared dead says U.N. refugee agency. Countries in the region fail to assist in locating and rescuing those stranded, passing the buck despite risk of lives lost https://t.co/Pm0IzpVNiP\u201d— meenakshi ganguly (@meenakshi ganguly) 1672111094
The captain of another vessel transporting Rohingya refugees said he saw the distressed boat swept up in stormy seas sometime during the second week of December.
"It was around 2:00 am when a strong wind began blowing and big waves surfaced on the sea. [Their] boat began swaying wildly, we could gauge from a flashlight they were pointing at us," he told The Guardian. "After some time, we could not see the flashlight anymore. We believe the boat drowned then."
More than a million Rohingya Muslims are crowded into squalid refugee camps in southern Bangladesh after having fled ethnic cleansing, apartheid, and other violence and repression in Rakhine state, Myanmar, which is ruled by a military dictatorship. Since 2020, thousands of Rohingya have fled the camps by sea.
\u201cWho are the #Rohingya\u201d— Protect The Rohingya (@Protect The Rohingya) 1672070107
Hundreds have died during the perilous journey. If the sinking of the boat with 180 aboard is confirmed, it would make 2022 the deadliest year for Rohingya at sea, according to UNHCR.
UNHCR's Baloch stressed that "countries and states in the region have international obligations to help desperate people."
"We have been calling on states to go after people smugglers and human traffickers as they are responsible for putting people on those death-trap boats, but victims have to be saved and saving human life is the most important act," he told the Morning Herald.
"The refugee issue and saving lives cannot just be left to one country, it has to be done collectively, together in the region," he added.
Tun Khin, a Rohingya activist and refugee who now heads the Burmese Rohingya Organization U.K., took aim at regional power Australia, which has been criticized for decades over its abuse of desperate seaborne asylum-seekers, nearly all of whom are sent to dirty, crowded offshore processing centers on Manus Island and Nauru to await their fate.
"Australia has too often set a shameful example for the region through its treatment of refugees," he told the Morning Herald.
"These people are facing genocide in Burma," Khin added, using the former official name of Myanmar. "It is a hopeless situation for them in Bangladesh, there is no dignity of life there."
Sunday, June 20 marked the United Nations' World Refugee Day, a time to highlight refugees worldwide, applaud their courage, and highlight their contributions. This year's theme, "Heal, Learn, Shine," recognized the challenges of COVID-19, the need to uphold the right to education, and how refugees persevere despite the challenges presented to them. According to the UN, there are greater than 1.1 million refugees from my home country of Burma, making it one of the top five source countries of refugees worldwide. While many may celebrate World Refugee Day, those forced to flee Burma continue to witness repeated mass atrocities.
As the number of people fleeing the Burmese military's violence has only increased since the coup, seeking refuge in Thailand has proven increasingly difficult for Burma's ethnic minority refugees as Thai officials fear the spread of COVID-19 and strictly police their borders.
"Despite impossible conditions and a consistent lack of international support, there are numerous examples of how refugees from Burma impact communities around our world."
Estimates report that in March and April, close to 3,000 Karen internally displaced persons (IDPs) crossed the Salween River to seek refuge in Thailand, only to be held by Thai officials until conditions were deemed secure enough to turn them away. Similarly, more than 100,000 Karenni civilians escaping conflict in their home state were met with force at the Thai-Burma border, where officials attempted to push back thousands.
Safety and security for refugees are immensely rare, even on the occasion that they are accepted by host countries. Refugees are uniquely affected by a number of factors, and, during a pandemic, are disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. Often crammed into tight living situations with inadequate hygiene facilities, the ability to escape COVID-19's grip is almost impossible for Burma's refugees. With more than 1 million Rohingya refugees living in
Bangladesh, estimates report close to 1,369 cases of COVID-19 in Rohingya refugee camps. Vaccine supplies are also far from refugees' reach-- as of June 1, no COVID-19 vaccines have been distributed in Cox's Bazar.
Education remains unavailable to refugees from Burma and across the diaspora in Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Malaysia. While some children are able to attend small, community-run schools, the general lack of educational opportunities forces entire generations from Burma to face their future unprepared. A May 2021 study reported that 68 percent of Rohingya families have at least one child, aged 5 to 17, that has been offered no opportunities to gain an education.
Despite impossible conditions and a consistent lack of international support, there are numerous examples of how refugees from Burma impact communities around our world. The Chin Human Rights Organization has empowered thousands of Chin refugees in India and Malaysia to help them reach their full potential. With help from the Rohingya Women Development Network, Rohingya women in Malaysia are taught about their rights and the key roles they play in society. Internally displaced Karenni and their refugee diaspora are supported by the collective work of the Karenni Civil Society Network, a Karenni-led effort that also speaks out against the human rights abuses experienced by ethnic minorities across Burma. While these efforts are worthy of celebration and highlight what refugees contribute to our communities, this impact would be amplified to the greatest extent if these individuals could bring their talent home to Burma for the benefit of all.
It is difficult for civilians in Burma to heal when the Burma army continues to brutalize its own people. However, despite their pain, refugees and IDPs are learning to empower themselves. However, they cannot do this alone. If the situation in Burma does not improve, the reported 175,000 internally displaced men, women, and children--a figure that is doubtlessly a conservative estimate--will likely become refugees.
The Burmese military's impunity weighs heavily on the minds of refugees in Southeast Asia and IDPs in Burma who look to their home country and wonder if their chance to safely return is slipping away. Refugees in camps and those resettled abroad are calling for the world to act, but is anyone listening? While everyone has the right to protection and freedom from the risk of death and torture, now more than ever, we need a world that will sustainably uphold the rights of all.
The international community should be compelled to take swift action to pressure the Burmese military to allow unconditional humanitarian access to internally displaced people. Cross-border aid is also essential and beyond crucial to the survival of the hundreds of thousands living in makeshift and refugee camps. Ending the illegal junta in Burma is the first step to securing human rights-based livelihoods for refugees and the millions of civilians who have long deserved peace and democratic rule. Only then can we collectively begin a new and more equitable process to heal, learn, and shine.