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"By branding itself as an active party of economic populism that fights for needed changes for the working class, the Democratic Party can put itself in a position to regain the support of the voters it lost in 2024."
Further bolstering the post-election argument that U.S. working-class voters have ditched the Democratic Party because they feel abandoned by Democrats, a Tuesday analysis details why Vice President Kamala Harris lost to Republican President-elect Donald Trump.
The report by Data for Progress, a left-leaning think tank, uses dozens of national surveys of likely voters conducted throughout 2024 to back up assertions that the party needs to improve its messaging and policies targeting working people if Democrats want to win future U.S. elections, after losing the White House and both chambers of Congress last month.
Data for Progress found that before Democratic President Joe Biden passed the torch to Harris this summer following a disastrous debate performance against Trump, "voters were highly concerned about his age, and swing voters overwhelmingly cited it as the main reason they wouldn't vote for Biden."
"Voters were also deeply unsatisfied with Biden's economy," the 40-page report states. "A strong majority perceived the economy as getting worse for people like them, with more than 3 in 4 consistently reporting they were paying more for groceries. Voters blamed Biden more than any other person or group for U.S. economic conditions."
"While voters across party lines strongly supported Biden's populist economic policies, many were not aware that his administration had enacted them," the document details. "When Harris entered the race, her favorability surged, along with Democrats' and Independents' enthusiasm for voting in the election."
However, "on the economy—voters' top issue—Harris struggled to escape Biden's legacy. Half of voters said that Harris would mostly continue the same policies as Biden, leading swing state voters to prefer Trump on handling inflation," Data for Progress explained. This, despite warnings from economic justice advocates and Nobel Prize-winning economists that Harris' plan for the economy was "vastly superior" to the Trump agenda.
"Harris was effective at communicating to voters that she supported increasing taxes on billionaires, but struggled to break through with other aspects of her popular economic agenda," the think tank noted. "Most voters heard only 'a little' or 'nothing at all' about her plans to crack down on corporate price gouging, protect Social Security and Medicare, and lower the price of groceries, prescription drugs, and childcare."
The report on "why Trump beat Harris" also highlights that "beyond the economy, Democrats struggled mightily on immigration and foreign policy, with a surge of border crossings at the end of 2023 and major international conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine damaging trust in Biden and Harris on these issues."
"While Democrats had some success breaking through on their stronger issues—abortion and democracy—they struggled with these issues being less important to voters, and with the fact that many voters were unsure of Trump's support for Project 2025," the document adds, referencing the Heritage Foundation-led playbook crafted for the next Republican president.
Although billionaire-backed Trump is a well-documented liar expected to now implement a series of right-wing Project 2025 policies, the former reality television star has demonstrated an ability to capture attention via traditional press and newer media, launching his Truth Social platform, appearing on various podcasts, and reportedly taking advice from his 18-year-old son about reaching young people.
Data for Progress observed that "while Harris held an advantage with voters who regularly consume political news, those who consume little or no political news—a group that disproportionately consumes content on social media—supported Harris at much lower rates."
As the think tank concluded:
Broadly, these findings indicate that the Democratic Party needs to do far more work to break through to voters—particularly those who are politically disengaged—on the economy. Democrats' economically populist agenda is overwhelmingly popular, but they need to more clearly communicate it to voters and engage in more robust communications. Earlier this year, President Biden declined the traditional pre-Super Bowl interview for the second year in a row, when 123 million Americans tuned in—the most-watched Super Bowl in history. In fact, Biden will leave office having done the fewest number of press conferences among recent presidents. Even when Harris took over the top of the ticket in July, she waited weeks before doing her first major broadcast interview in late August. Democrats need to do the basics of actively communicating their agenda to the American people, including through non-traditional media to reach disengaged voters. Voters crave authenticity and engagement, which they found in Trump.
Democrats also need to more actively demonstrate to voters that they are the party of change. They need to show voters that they are capable of fixing our country's immigration system and foreign conflicts by taking a serious but humane approach to border security and supporting popular solutions to conflicts abroad.
"By branding itself as an active party of economic populism that fights for needed changes for the working class," the group stressed, "the Democratic Party can put itself in a position to regain the support of the voters it lost in 2024."
Echoing that conclusion in a Tuesday statement, Data for Progress executive director Danielle Deiseroth declared that "this report should serve as a clarion call to Democrats who let a billionaire con man outflank them on cost-of-living issues."
"Voters are tired of the status quo, one in which the ultrarich and largest corporations rake in record profits while working families struggle to afford groceries," she said. "If Democrats want to take back Congress, they need to recruit candidates who can buck the unpopular establishment and authentically communicate to the communities they seek to represent."
Progressives in Congress—such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016 and 2020; "Squad" members like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.); and Congressional Progressive Caucus leaders, including outgoing Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and incoming Chair Greg Casar (D-Texas)—have long made that same point, but they have been particularly vocal about it after the devastating federal electoral losses in November.
On Tuesday, Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) narrowly
defeated Ocasio-Cortez to lead Democrats on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee in the next congressional session—a contest that was widely seen as a proxy fight between the party's younger, more progressive faction and the establishment that couldn't win over voters last month.
When voters are informed that Harris supports increasing Social Security benefits, while Trump supports cutting them, Harris draws in an additional 4% of likely voters in a head-to-head race against Trump.
Social Security is a top issue for voters in the 2024 election. It is especially key for older Americans, who vote at higher rates than their younger counterparts. Indeed, for the 67 million current beneficiaries, their families, and the millions more working families approaching retirement age, Social Security is a bread-and-butter issue.
Donald Trump understands the politics of Social Security and the risk it poses to his campaign. He is distracting from his history of supporting benefit cuts by promising to end the taxation of benefits (along with many other phony promises of tax cuts) and lying about undocumented immigrants receiving Social Security. His campaign is flooding Pennsylvania and other swing states with pro-Trump and anti-Harris mailers, as well as TV ads, about Social Security.
Voters have shown that they will support the candidate who fights to protect and strengthen Social Security.
The best way for the Harris campaign to counteract the Trump narrative on Social Security is by pouring resources into a narrative of its own: Kamala Harris is fighting to strengthen Social Security by requiring billionaires to contribute their fair share, while Donald Trump will slash Social Security (as he has tried to do in the past) if he returns to the White House.
Data for Progress’ polling demonstrates that Social Security should be a winning issue for Democrats, as their policies on Social Security align with the views of the overwhelming majority of Americans. Seventy-four percent of likely voters want to increase Social Security benefits, while only 2% want to cut them.
Kamala Harris agrees. According to her campaign website:
“Vice President Harris will protect Social Security and Medicare against relentless attacks from Donald Trump and his extreme allies. She will strengthen Social Security and Medicare for the long haul by making millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share in taxes. She will always fight to ensure that Americans can count on getting the benefits they earned.”
And yet, with only weeks to go before the election, most voters are unaware of where the parties stand on this crucial issue. Only 22% of voters say that they know “a lot” about the Democratic and Republican plans for Social Security, and one-third of voters know “nothing at all.”
Even when directly asked about Harris’ position, less than half of voters are aware of her support for strengthening Social Security. Just as importantly, only 44% percent of voters know that Trump has supported cutting benefits.
While these figures are alarming, they also present the Harris campaign with a massive opportunity to inform, energize, and mobilize voters by making Social Security a key election issue.
The best way for the Harris campaign to counteract the Trump narrative on Social Security is by pouring resources into a narrative of its own.
When voters are informed that Harris supports increasing Social Security benefits, while Trump supports cutting them, Harris draws in an additional 4% of likely voters in a head-to-head race against Trump.
Voters have shown that they will support the candidate who fights to protect and strengthen Social Security. During the 2022 midterms, Democrats in swing districts won by campaigning on strengthening Social Security. Data from AARP found that older voters in swing districts backed Democrats by a 3-point margin, defying the stereotype of seniors as a conservative voting bloc. This happened because Democrats hammered home their commitment to Social Security, and voters responded.
The Harris campaign is making significant progress in reaching out to seniors on drug prices, and a similar focus is needed with regards to Social Security. If the campaign can break through the noise, voters will know that Kamala Harris is the only candidate fighting for seniors.
"No one is really OK with a corporation lying to consumers. What jumps out here is the overwhelming agreement among voters that it's deceptive and wrong for companies to label a product as recyclable when it's not."
Most U.S. voters would support officials in their state taking legal action against the plastics and fossil fuel industries for creating plastic pollution, based on evidence that they misled the public about the viability of recycling their products, according to a poll released Monday.
The poll, conducted by Data for Progress and the Center for Climate Integrity, follows a report CCI released in February that showed decades of industry deception about the recyclability of plastics and a yearslong, ongoing investigation by the California attorney general, which could lead to a lawsuit.
The poll indicates that 70% of voters support such a lawsuit and even 54% of Republicans do so.
"Regardless of your politics, no one is really OK with a corporation lying to consumers," Davis Allen, a CCI researcher, said in a statement. "What jumps out here is the overwhelming agreement among voters that it's deceptive and wrong for companies to label a product as recyclable when it's not."
Allen's colleague Alyssa Johl, a CCI vice president, argued that the poll bolsters the case that attorneys general should pursue lawsuits against industry for its role in creating plastic waste and deceiving the public about recycling.
"As we're watching to see what comes from California's investigation, it's clear that the public is very concerned about the plastic waste crisis and would support holding Big Oil and the plastics industry accountable for the fraud of plastic recycling," she said. "Any attorney general or public official who is considering action on this issue should know that both the law and public opinion are on their side."
📣 New poll from us & @DataProgress:
The vast majority of U.S. voters — including 54% of Republicans — support legal action against Big Oil & the plastics industry for lying about the viability of plastic recycling and causing the plastic waste crisis. https://t.co/YFjmxzeOYT pic.twitter.com/0oHAMHPtem
— Center for Climate Integrity (@climatecosts) September 9, 2024
The survey, conducted on 1,231 web panel respondents, also included a number of other plastics-related questions. More than two-thirds of respondents, after being prompted with information during the course of the survey, said the plastics industry should have "a great deal of responsibility" to address the plastic crisis, while 59% said the same about the fossil fuel industry. The industries are in fact connected; almost all plastics are made out of fossil fuels.
More than 60% of respondents strongly agreed—and 85% agreed at least "somewhat"—that it was deceptive to put the "chasing arrows" symbol on products that were not in fact recyclable. California restricted the practice with a 2021 law, and the Federal Trade Commission is revising its guidelines following recommendations issued last year by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which said the use of the symbol can be "deceptive or misleading."
The poll showed that Americans tend to overestimate the amount of plastic being recycled. The average respondent guessed that about 45% of plastic gets recycled, when in fact a 2021 Greenpeace report indicated that the real figure is about 6%.
Despite the negative impacts of plastic waste, plastic production continues to increase worldwide. About 220 million tons of plastic waste are expected to be generated this year alone. Last week, a study in Nature, a leading journal, estimated global plastic waste emissions at about 52 million metric tons per year.
Recycling plastic is logistically challenging because many products are made of composites of different types of plastic and because the quality of the material goes down with each generation of use.
The poll comes out during the final stages of negotiations on a global plastics treaty, which has been in the works for several years. Ahead of United Nations General Assembly meetings this week, a group of celebrities including Bette Midler called for strong action on plastics in an open letter published by Greenpeace.
The final global plastics treaty negotiations will be held in Busan, South Korea starting November 25. The previous major round of negotiations, in April, was dominated by corporate lobbyists, advocates said. Activists and Indigenous leaders were also left out of a smaller meeting in Thailand last month, drawing criticism.
The call for accountability for plastics producers comes as the fossil fuel industry already faces legal action for its role in perpetuating the climate crisis. Dozens of cities and states have filed suits. None has yet reached the trial stage. The one that is closest to doing so, City and County of Honolulu v. Sunoco et al., has been the subject of political and legal wrangling, with the industry trying to have the suit dismissed.