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ecological crisis
Climate Tipping Points, Ecological Collapse Could Arrive Sooner Than Expected: Study
"Urgent action is needed now more than ever to prevent a catastrophic ecological collapse," said one campaigner in response to the new research.
Jun 23, 2023
A new study released Thursday warns that international experts may have been overly cautious in their warnings about widespread ecological collapse such as a catastrophic breakdown in the Amazon rainforest, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said last year could come by the year 2100.
Scientists at Rothamsted Research and Southampton, Sheffield, and Bangor Universities in the United Kingdom found that as numerous factors such as water stress and pollution from mining compound the degradation of ecosystems in forests and bodies of water, the environments can be pushed toward tipping points more quickly.
The IPCC, suggests the study, which was published in Nature Sustainability, has been issuing its warnings about a tipping point in the Amazon while focusing on just a single factor, such as deforestation or planetary heating. Both of those drivers could interact with other environmental changes and accelerate tipping points such as dieback—in which the rainforest ecosystem would be replaced by one resembling a dry savanna.
"It is not clear whether the IPCC estimate for a tipping point in the Amazon forest before 2100 includes the possibility for interacting drivers and/or noise; if not, our findings suggest that a breakdown may occur several decades earlier," reads the report. "This would occur where local-scale failures in elements (such as species populations, fish stocks, crop yields, and water resources) combine with more extreme events (such as wildfires and droughts) to precondition the large-scale system, already vulnerable to the influence of other large-scale tipping elements, to collapse earlier—a meeting of top-down and bottom-up forces."
The researchers used computer models to assess the potential fates of two lake ecosystems and two forests, allowing for 70,000 adjustments of variables.
In the study, up to 15% of ecological collapses occurred as the result of new events or environmental stressors, even in cases where the primary stress affecting the ecosystem remained at the same level.
At Lake Erhai in southern China, for example, "abrupt lake eutrophication [the presence of excessive nutrients or minerals] was initially perceived to have been driven by transgression of a threshold in nutrient enrichment driven by agricultural runoff but historical analysis has shown that the shift was also affected by lake water-level management, seasonal climate, and fish farming," reads the study.
Because international experts may not have been considering variables such as water resources when they warned that the Amazon is headed for a climate tipping point by the turn of the next century, study co-author Professor Simon Willcock of Rothamsted Research toldThe Guardian, "We could realistically be the last generation to see the Amazon."
"It could happen very soon," he added.
The scientists said their research shows that even if some aspects of an ecosystem are managed sustainably, preventing stresses including planetary heating and extreme weather events—both being driven by the continued extraction of fossil fuels—is crucial for avoiding tipping points.
"Urgent action is needed now more than ever to prevent a catastrophic ecological collapse," said Tanya Steele, CEO of the World Wildlife Fund in the U.K., in response to the research.
Willcock noted that the study's findings suggest that an accelerated recovery of ecosystems is possible with a multi-pronged approach that would address deforestation, planetary heating, and other stresses.
"Potentially if you apply positive pressure," Willcock told The Guardian, "you can see rapid recovery,"
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'Festival of Climate Resistance': Tens of Thousands Celebrate 'The Big One' in UK on Earth Day
"As the government continues to fan the flames of the climate and biodiversity crisis it's clear that only a collective effort can put it out," said the head of Greenpeace UK.
Apr 22, 2023
Tens of thousands demonstrated with a defiant yet jubilant spirit in London on Saturday to mark the second day of 'The Big One' climate protests aimed at getting the U.K. government to finally take bold action on the planetary emergency of greenhouse gas emissions.
A nonviolent die-in action was held outside Parliament, but the day of demonstration was billed as a "family-friendly" day of action meant to foster inclusion and participation as opposed to disruption or civil disobedience.
\u201cThousands of beautiful people marching for biodiversity and climate action today at @XRebellionUK\u2019s #TheBigOne. \n\nThis shows the die-in outside Parliament. If our politicians continue as they are, life on Earth, and human civilisation, are at risk of extinction\u203c\ufe0f\ud83e\udda4\ud83e\udd95\ud83e\udd96\u23f3\u201d— Simon Moore (@Simon Moore) 1682180613
The coalition behind 'The Big One' events includes Extinction Rebellion UK (XR), Greenpeace UK, War Without Want, Global Justice Now, Women's Climate Strike, and dozens of others have warned that if the government does not respond to their urgent, collective set of demands, they will begin escalating their direct actions.
"As the government continues to fan the flames of the climate and biodiversity crisis it's clear that only a collective effort can put it out," said Areeba Hamid, Greenpeace UK's executive director, on Saturday.
"We will either win as a movement or lose as individual organizations," Hamid added. "And through bringing together groups from across civil society, The Big One will act as the catalyst of a new united fight against the vested interests putting profits over people and the planet."
In addition to unity across the movement, urgency was a main theme of the event.
"The climate and ecological crisis isn't something that is going to happen in the future, it is already here, we can see it with the noticeable lack of insects and wildlife every spring and summer," said Zoe Cohen, a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion. "It's time that the government took this seriously and listened to the people here and the many not present who are represented by the organizations here."
\u201c"A festival of climate resistance. It's not so much a protest nor an obstruction but a statement of existence [...] It's amazingly vibrant." \n\nA quick update from James Marriott, key contributor to #TheOilMachine, from #TheBigOne in Westminster.\u201d— The Oil Machine (@The Oil Machine) 1682172654
On the ground in London, writer and activist James Marriot said the attendees—estimates ranged from 30,000 to 60,000 or more—came with diverse voices but shared a "vibrant" mood as they expressed extreme displeasure with the Tory-controlled government's refusal to act.
Saturday's event, said Marriot, is the "culmination of at least a year if not more of campaigning and preparation by XR and many other organizations across the UK to create a festival of climate resistance in London, the heart of government and bureaucracy—a festival that says, 'We are here. This is what we stand for.' It's not so much a protest, nor is it an obstruction, but a statement of existence. A statement that says we are here and we want action."
Marriott said those participating are demanding a "change to the structures of government and the structures of the energy system" and to "make them change as swiftly as possible."
\u201cDay 2 of #TheBigOne and 60,000 people have united to march through Westminster. \n\nSpread these scenes far and wide because our mainstream media don\u2019t seem willing to prioritise the fact that so many citizens are unifying for the defining fight of our time. \n\n#UniteToSurvive\u201d— Jack Lowe (@Jack Lowe) 1682178576
In a Metroop-ed on Friday, Green MP Caroline Lucas, who is speaking at various 'Big One' events, said the driving purpose for the U.K. climate movement is to create the necessary momentum for the "wholesale, societal change" to adequately address the climate emergency unleashed by the burning of fossil fuels and other highly-polluting industrial processes of the 20th and 21st centuries.
"How did we end up here?" Lucas asks. "I believe it's because climate and nature crimes are being committed with impunity right across the country and the world. Fossil fuel giants like BP and Shell are drilling the North Sea, polluting our planet and reaping record profits. And private water companies are dumping sewage in our waterways on a daily basis, all while returning billions in profits to their shareholders."
But instead of taking action to avert the destruction, she continues, the Tory government led by U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunal is "aiding and abetting" it.
"Despite the stark warnings of 'act now, or it will be too late' from the global scientific community just this week," said Mel Evans, the climate lead for Greenpeace UK, the government refuses to act.
"The U.K. government is failing to deliver the kind of wholesale action needed to avoid full-blown climate breakdown," Evans said.
The coalition behind "The Big One"—which will continue into next week—is demanding that the U.K. government "end all new licenses, approvals, and funding for fossil fuel projects as we begin a transition to a fair society centered on reparatory justice for all life on earth."
"This is a transformative moment in history, and we will accept nothing less than immediate and decisive action from the U.K. government," the alliance wrote. "The people of this country have the courage and power, and it is our responsibility to safeguard our own future by taking action where politics has let us down with apathy and dangerous false solutions."
Extinction Rebellion's Cohen said, "So far the atmosphere has been amazing and it's been great to see so many people from different organizations come together for the first time. There is a very clear desire from the public to discuss climate solutions together and build something different."
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Pope Francis' Call to be Ecologically 'Pro-Life'
Jun 17, 2015
Abortion is a polarizing issue in America, with half the country believing individuals should be free to choose and 44 percent believing we must safeguard life. But "pro-life" can encompass far more than life in the womb; in fact, life on Earth is threatened -- and we are the ones aborting the ecosystems on which we rely. We're being called to be ecologically pro-life.
Thursday, Pope Francis releases his much-anticipated encyclical on the environment, which Catholic News Service predicts will present ecology "as the ultimate pro-life, pro-poor, pro-family issue."
The Catechism of the Catholic Church, a summary of the principles of Catholicism, states that God has entrusted to us "the noble mission of safeguarding life." Yet our way of life -- high consumption, low responsibility, fossil-fuel driven -- has pushed ecosystems into collapse. We live in an ecologically pro-choice culture, where most of us make choices without thinking of its effects on ecosystems, and the lives -- humans, other animals, plants -- that depend on them. As a matter of good business, we encourage corporations to pursue profit regardless of ecological repercussions. The results? Pretty much every scientist, notes NASA, is in agreement: the Earth is in unprecedented, human-induced trouble. We've pumped enough carbon into the atmosphere to raise Earth's temperature by 1 degree Celsius, and we're on track for more. We're already witnessing the results.
Sea level rise, super-storms, water scarcity, unpredictable weather; for animals and plants, extinction rates are rapidly rising. For humans, it's linked to natural disasters, droughts, political instability. Our food supply already has been affected, says the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
When taking a stance on abortion, poverty, public health, national security and other hot-button issues that address safeguarding life, I find myself redirected to the challenges of climate change. If my daughter announces she's considering abortion while the house is burning, I first focus on extinguishing the fire that threatens us all -- fetus included. Climate change is a double-whammy, magnifying poverty, migration, international conflict -- you name it. It is the defining moral issue of our time that determines our future as a species, and, as the pope's encyclical hopefully will note, we need to come together -- 100 percent of us -- to address it, first.
Reframing pro-life brings the issue into everyday decisions: The average American may never face unwanted pregnancy, but he or she might decide whether to buy a car or bike to work; buy beef or go vegetarian; divest his or her portfolio from fossil fuels or do nothing. He or she can also step up pressure for governments to limit further development of fossil fuels. This is safeguarding life.
Pope Francis has implored us to see "the link between the natural environment and the dignity of the human person." Our care for the environment -- and our connection to it -- are fundamentally what make us human. It's time to step up to our mission, to prioritize ecological pro-life
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