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"The decisions being made in statehouses this year and next will help determine how the 2024 election is conducted," a new report warns.
Republican legislators in more than three dozen states have introduced nearly 200 bills this year that would make it easier for them to rig electoral outcomes, according to a report published Thursday.
A Democracy Crisis in the Making—compiled by the States United Democracy Center, Protect Democracy, and Law Forward—found that right-wing lawmakers in 38 states unveiled 185 bills from January 1 through May 3 that would enable legislatures to "politicize, criminalize, or interfere with elections." Of those proposals, 15 were enacted or adopted into law in 11 states while three others were vetoed by Arizona's new Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs.
Thursday's report—the latest update of an analysis originally published two years ago—makes clear that "the subversion threat is very much still alive." The number of "election subversion" bills introduced during the first four months of 2023 is roughly on par with the hundreds put forward in the early months of 2021 and 2022. Eventually, 56 of those anti-democratic proposals from the past two years became law in 26 states.
"Legislators are trying to make it harder for trusted election officials to do their jobs, and easier for partisan politicians to overturn the will of the voters."
Since former President Donald Trump launched his deadly coup attempt following his loss in the 2020 presidential contest, GOP-controlled states have enacted dozens of voter suppression laws and redrawn congressional and state legislative maps in ways that disenfranchise Democratic-leaning communities of color and give Republicans outsized representation, which could help the far-right secure minority rule for years to come.
In addition to impeding ballot access, Republican lawmakers are further undermining the country's procedural democracy by obstructing the administration of free and fair elections, the new report notes.
Researchers identified five forms of interference that increase the risk of "election subversion," which they defined as instances when "the declared outcome of an election does not reflect the true choice of the voters." The methods are:
"Legislators are trying to make it harder for trusted election officials to do their jobs, and easier for partisan politicians to overturn the will of the voters. While many may think this threat abated after the midterms, it most certainly did not," Maya Ingram, a senior policy development counsel at the States United Democracy Center, toldNBC News on Thursday. "In fact, legislators are coming up with new ways to interfere with elections."
Several Republican candidates who parroted Trump's incessant lies about President Joe Biden's 2020 victory lost in last year's midterms. But more than 210 others—including at least two who participated in the January 6 rally that descended into an attack on the U.S. Capitol—won congressional seats and races for governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, underscoring how election denialism is now entrenched in the GOP and poses a threat to U.S. democracy for the foreseeable future.
"The decisions being made in statehouses this year and next will help determine how the 2024 election is conducted," the report warns. "Many of these bills are designed to inject confusion and delays into the election process, which increases the likelihood of attempted subversion and can give rise to disinformation, further eroding public trust and confidence in election results."
"Although a few of the bills that we have tracked would explicitly allow state legislatures or other actors to overturn the will of voters—what we sometimes refer to as direct subversion—the vast majority do not," says the report. "Bills that indirectly make subversion more likely are far more prevalent. A more probable scenario is a relatively close election, followed by efforts to create confusion and doubt about the results. Partisan actors could then claim that the true will of the voters cannot be determined, and engineer the outcome of their choice."
Nevertheless, "this legislative session has seen an increase in bills pushed by election deniers that would nullify election results if certain conditions are met," the report continues. "These bills are closely related to some of the direct subversion bills that we've seen in the past, in that they would allow the will of the voters to be disregarded."
NBC News summarized how two pieces of recently unveiled legislation could wreak havoc:
Republican legislators in Texas proposed a bill—H.B. 5082—that would give state officials the authority to order new elections in counties whose populations exceed 1 million people if there is "good cause" to conclude that 2% of polling places ran out of ballots and did not receive replacements. Such counties—like Harris County, which includes Houston—are home to a large share of the state's Democratic voters.
Arizona Republicans introduced a bill—H.B. 2078—that would, if it is enacted, allow candidates, political party county chairs, and certain ballot measure state committees to request post-election investigations that, under the law, would result in audits by the secretary of state.
While such audits should, in theory, be straightforward affairs, critics of the Arizona bill, and bills like it, note that election deniers were on the ballot in secretary of state races last year in 12 states—including Mark Finchem in Arizona. While Finchem lost, the scenario prompted enormous concerns about how such an audit might be conducted with an election denier overseeing it.
"The decisions that states make today will determine how elections are run in 2024," Ingram told the outlet. "Even when these bills don't become law, they keep lies and conspiracy theories alive and sustain the election denier movement."
According to a survey conducted in early 2022 by the Brennan Center for Justice, one in six election officials nationwide have experienced threats related to their job, and 77% say they feel such threats have increased in recent years. This spring, the Brennan Center found that 11% of current election officials are "very or somewhat likely" to step down before November 2024.
The new report urges voters to "be awake" to the "persistent threat" of election subversion and calls on state legislatures to "focus their efforts on the nonpartisan administration of elections, protecting election officials, and respecting the will of the people."
"Until they do," it warns, "our democracy is still far too close to a crisis."
Why the potential upcoming charges in Georgia should alarm Trump and his GOP backers nationwide.
On January 2, 2021, mere days before his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol to stop a peaceful transfer of power, former U.S. President Donald Trump made an extraordinary call to former Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. “I just want to find 11,780 votes,” said Trump. “So tell me Brad, what are we going to do?”
The call was one of Trump’s many attempts to pressure state officials, the Department of Justice, and even then-Vice President Mike Pence to overturn the 2020 election, and was among the thousands of pieces of evidence that the Jan. 6 Select Committee assessed before voting to recommend that the Justice Department pursue criminal charges against Trump and others for their part in the conspiracy. However, the DOJ is just one of the forums in which Trump has been facing a reckoning, and in Georgia, Trump may finally face the first indictment for his unconstitutional quest to stay in power. If these indictments are issued as anticipated, it will be a huge step towards legal accountability and will begin to set a precedent so that a power grab like this can never happen again.
Election subversion isn’t simply a partisan act. It’s a criminal one.
The Georgia investigation led by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has reportedly focused on Trump and more than a dozen others, and involved testimony from witnesses including Secretary Raffensperger, Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, former national security advisor Michael Flynn, Senator Lindsey Graham, former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson, and former Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.
As the recently released partial grand jury report revealed, one or more witnesses in the investigation may have lied under oath, and could face perjury charges. Meanwhile, CREW has published an informative list of possible other charges that the special purpose grand jury might recommend in Georgia. Election-related charges could include solicitation to commit election fraud for pressure placed on election officials and a scheme to orchestrate fake electors. Non-election related charges could be brought for making false statements (pertaining to his repeated claims to officials that he won the election), and criminal solicitation to engage in the scheme.
We shouldn’t have to rely on the integrity of officials like Secretary Raffensperger to maintain the sanctity of our elections, we should deter this type of criminal behavior before it gets to this point.
Additionally, fake electors signed documents that could lead to charges of false swearing and forgery in the first degree. Then there are RICO charges. Trump could face charges in violation of the Georgia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act based upon his repeated false statements, calls to election officials, and alleged coordinated attempts to provide fraudulent electoral certificates.
Had Georgia election officials caved to the immense pressure they faced from Trump, thousands of people would have had their votes stolen. But we shouldn’t have to rely on the integrity of officials like Secretary Raffensperger to maintain the sanctity of our elections, we should deter this type of criminal behavior before it gets to this point. That’s where the courts come in: crimes must be prosecuted and criminals (even former Presidents) must be held accountable.
The January 6 committee illustrated Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the election in stark detail, and Georgia wasn’t the only state where he and his team focused their pressure campaign. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, Trump unleashed his supporters on state officials, spending millions on ads and posting their contact information to social media. One Facebook post directed his followers to contact Michigan’s majority senate leader Mike Shirkey to “demand a vote on decertification.” Pennsylvania House Speaker Ryan Cutler received daily voicemails from Trump lawyers Rudy Guiliani and Jenna Ellis, and Steve Bannon announced a protest at his home on Dec. 30. At least three protests took place at Cutler’s office or home in the weeks following the election. In Arizona, Trump and Guiliana pressured House Speaker Rusty Bowers to decertify the election there, even pushing Bowers to call a special session of the state legislature to aid their efforts.
The State of Georgia, the Department of Justice, and other states can set vital legal precedent so that going forward no single powerful person can attempt to steal and nullify Americans’ votes.
The threat from Trump and his allies continues, and he is still spreading lies about the 2020 election.
These legal actions are necessary because January 6 was just the beginning of an attack on our democratic freedoms. The threat from Trump and his allies continues, and he is still spreading lies about the 2020 election.
Now, House Republicans are poised to hold a sham investigation into the work of the Jan. 6 committee to detract from their own eagerness to stand with Trump instead of the Constitution. They’ll attack the work of accountability to hide their own role in subverting our freedom to vote.
The potential upcoming charges in Georgia should alarm Trump and his backers in Congress and in leadership roles nationwide. Election subversion isn’t simply a partisan act. It’s a criminal one, which should, and likely will, be met with commensurate legal consequences.