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Believing the current style of door-knocking wins campaigns is the same as believing in Santa Claus.
Once upon a time, in a precinct long, long ago, there was a campaign that built voter contact programs solely from those who lived in the targeted neighborhood. The entire community shopped at the same grocery stores and even saw one another at the bank, gym, and library. In other words, this was totally different from today's "ground game," manned by people who drive from hours away, armed with clipboards, shiny new campaign t-shirts, and ready to tell residents exactly how they should vote.
While a ton of articles have been written about the importance of the "ground game" in the final days of the Harris campaign, no one is discussing the increasing problems and decreasing rate of return of this tactic. Time Magazine's October election article, "Democrats Bank on Ground Game Advantage in Pennsylvania," opens with the author observing that "most of the people on Elana Hunter's list weren't answering the door," but does not dig into the actual problem. The same is true with campaign analysis in hundreds of other news outlets. The New York Times wrote a lengthy piece comparing Vice President Kamala Harris' in-house door-knocking operation to the Trump campaign's outsourced field operation. The article highlights both sides bragging about how many doors they knocked on and how much paid staff was hired. But, neither side (nor the writers) discuss how few people answer their doors or even care what the stranger is selling.
This analysis misses the real problems of modern-day door knocking: Voters don't open their doors anymore, voters do not know their neighbors, and undecided voters are more skeptical than ever when it comes to talking about politics.
As Democrats, we should know that a last-minute paid "ground game" that gets dropped into the battleground days before an election hasn't worked in years.
Year-round precinct work with "local captains" who knew their "turf" and how each neighbor would vote disappeared as the campaign industry grew and political parties stopped building traditional ward systems. Instead, they were replaced with volunteers and paid voices that only knocked on doors during major elections. This transition from a known, trusted neighbor to an unknown door knocker has made modern campaigning a data-driven competition that ignores effectiveness as it optimizes toward knocking on the most doors.
Nonetheless, message and messenger still matter in all aspects of campaigns, especially in the field. Door-to-door salesmen are a relic of history (Even the legendary Fuller Brush company started transitioning out of door-to-door sales in 1985).
Public safety studies show neighborhoods are more responsive to community policing programs when public safety officers know the people they serve. Why would political campaigns be different?
Technology has also had a major impact on door knocking. It's now been a decade since the invention of video door camera technology. According to a 2024 Consumer Reports study, 30% of Americans use video door cameras. These changes in neighborhood dynamics and consumer behaviors are realities that must be faced.
The rite-of-passage, where a volunteer gets lost in below-freezing weather canvassing an unknown precinct or gets bitten by a dog while knocking on doors, needs to be relegated to history. While campaign war stories are fun, it's time to be honest about the changing times and begin a new chapter: These age-old tactics are neither sacred nor effective. If no one is home or no one is answering their door even if they are home, political campaigns need to change with the times.
To win more elections, target voters with appropriate messages and messengers. It's time to explore better ways to use scarce time, people, and money to achieve the desired victory. Are there better places to send volunteers to work more efficiently and rally potential voters?
This is not to say that field organizing should be discarded or that campaigns should go completely digital. (Lots of criticism is being written on the current problems with these newer tactics that will hopefully be fixed.) But, as the Democratic Party's messaging and mobilization are transformed, an honest assessment of all tactics is needed to understand what works and create better ways to win.
Remember, just because a tactic worked on one campaign, it will not always continue to work the same four years later. We have tried this with auto-calling and text messaging technologies and know they have diminishing returns each cycle. Now is the time to dig deep and have honest conversations with field organizers and volunteers to learn what tactics need to be retired and start adopting new approaches.
Let's stop pretending that more "fake neighbors" door-knocking is the solution to the Democrats' problems and focus on how to best reach targeted voters with a message that resonates, delivered by respected voices that matter, while we have time now to build a real organic field effort.
As Democrats, we should know that a last-minute paid "ground game" that gets dropped into the battleground days before an election hasn't worked in years. It didn't work on Howard Dean's well-funded 2004 campaign that flew tons of staff and volunteers to Iowa. It's now 20 years after the infamous Dean scream, and we continue to blindly follow the same failed "orange cap" tactics of these past campaigns: inserting last-minute volunteers and door-knocking teams instead of thinking about how to create long-term community-based approaches.
We all have to grow up at some point and face the truth. Or you could keep believing in Santa Claus and see what gift he brings you in the next election cycle.
"The success of democracy depends on many things, but it becomes utterly impossible if elections fail," said Kevin Casas-Zamora, secretary-general of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
A report published Tuesday by an intergovernmental watchdog paints an alarming picture of the state of global democracy, showing that the quality of elections has declined around the world and losing candidates are rejecting outcomes with growing frequency, further eroding trust in electoral processes and institutions.
The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) found in its annual report that last year was the worst the group has ever observed for "free and fair elections and parliamentary oversight." It also marked the eighth consecutive year in which "overall democratic performance" declined rather than improved—the longest stretch since IDEA began collecting records in 1975.
"This report is a call for action to protect democratic elections," Kevin Casas-Zamora, the group's secretary-general, said in a statement. "Elections remain the single best opportunity to end democratic backsliding and turn the tide in democracy's favor. The success of democracy depends on many things, but it becomes utterly impossible if elections fail."
IDEA's new analysis estimates that between 2020 and 2024, the losing candidate in nearly 20% of elections across the globe rejected the outcome. The report describes former U.S. President Donald Trump's attacks on the 2020 election results and the violent insurrection that followed as "one of the most extreme examples" of election denial in recent years.
The report states that while "there have been some improvements" in U.S. elections since 2021, "the change is not enough to recover from the decline." Trump is running for president again this year, and lawmakers and watchdogs have warned that he has laid the groundwork to deny the election results again should he lose in November.
Globally, one in three voters currently lives in a country where the quality of elections is in decline, according to IDEA. That decline has been accompanied by a fall in electoral participation, a reflection of eroding trust in the voting process.
The report urges governments to take a number of steps to improve electoral processes and trust in voting systems, from responding "vigilantly to unfounded accusations that seek to harm people's perceptions of electoral integrity" to expanding ballot access in consultation with the public.
"If elections are to continue to act as the foundation stones of democratic systems, it is critical to reinforce public trust in them," the report states. "Integrating popular opinion into the activities of the electoral cycle is one important step in this process."
The president drew criticism for rejecting the candidate put up by the left-of-center coalition that won the most seats in parliamentary elections.
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday named the right-wing politician Michel Barnier as prime minister, prompting outrage from a coalition of left-of-center parties that won the most seats in recent parliamentary elections and argued that the premier should be chosen from its ranks.
The decision marks the end of an unprecedented period in which France hasn't had an active government following the final round of parliamentary elections on July 7 and the previous prime minister's resignation on July 16.
The election ended with the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), the left coalition, winning a plurality of seats at 32.6%, Macron's own Ensemble coalition of centrist neoliberals winning 27.9%, and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) winning 24.6%. NFP and Ensemble coordinated their efforts in the final round, forming a "republican front" to block the RN—a successful effort that drew praise from left and centrist figures across the world.
Barnier's center-right party, Les Républicains (LR), once a powerful force in France, gained only 8.3% of the seats, yet emerged victorious in the prime ministerial sweepstakes following Macron's negotiations with RN leader Marine Le Pen, who's thought to have agreed to Barnier's appointment. Without RN's support, Barnier could be ousted by a no-confidence vote in parliament.
In late August, Macron rejected the NFP's proposed prime minister, Lucie Castets, a little-known civil servant and economist whose nomination was itself a compromise reached by the parties within the NFP, which include the center-left Parti Socialiste (PS), the left-wing La France Insoumise (LFI), and Les Écologistes, a green party.
Les Écologistes on Thursday condemned Macron's choice, saying he was "obsessed with the preservation of his neoliberal record" and he'd aligned with the far-right.
"By appointing Mr. Barnier, who did not call for a republican blockade and whose positions on immigration resonate with those of the RN, to [Hôtel Matignon, the prime minister's residence], Emmanuel Macron is turning his back on the millions of citizens who have created a historic republican blockade in France," the party said in a statement.
🔴⚡ Un accord a été trouvé entre le président de la République, LR et le RN sur la nomination de @MichelBarnier | Il ne manquait plus que l'accord de Marine Le Pen, le RN confirme ne pas censurer un gouvernement #Barnier. pic.twitter.com/rKlaeE1n1n
— Nouveau Front Populaire 🟢🔴🟡🟣🔴 (ex NUPES News) (@NupesNews) September 5, 2024
Normally, the French president names a prime minister within days of an election for the National Assembly, as the directly-elected house of Parliament is called. However, with no party gaining a majority, and Macron opposed to the NFP—the coalition had run on a platform of rolling back his anti-worker agenda—the negotiations dragged on, especially once the president announced an interlude for the Olympics.
In the French system, the president chooses the prime minister, who has power over governmental ministries, but a majority of the National Assembly must approve of the choice or the deputies, as members of parliament are known, can issue a vote of no confidence. Not since the Fifth Republic formed with constitutional reform in 1958 has the country gone so long without a prime minister.
Barnier, 73, was first elected to the National Assembly in 1978 and worked his way up, serving various key ministerial posts in the 1990s and 2000s under center-right Presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy. From 2016 until 2021, he served as the European Union's chief Brexit negotiator.
Barnier was generally regarded as a centrist conservative but moved to the right in 2021, speaking harshly about immigration as he prepared a 2022 presidential run. The effort failed: He didn't receive his party's nomination.
Le Pen emerged in recent days as the "kingmaker" in the prime minister negotiations, according toLe Monde. With the backing of Ensemble and the RN, Barnier will be able to hold on to the job, as together the two blocs have more than 50% of the seats in the National Assembly.
Le Pen indicated at least a modicum of support for Barnier on Thursday, saying that he is "someone who is respectful of the different political forces and capable of addressing the RN."
Castets, on the other hand, said she was "very worried" about Barnier's appointment and called him "reactionary."
"Michel Barnier is the continuation of Macron's policy, or even worse," Castets toldMediapart.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, standard-bearer of the French left and leader of the LFI, the NFP party holding the most seats, also decried the choice, pointing out that Barnier's party did poorly in the election and hadn't been part of the republican front. He said the "election has been stolen."
Mélenchon has led an effort to impeach Macron for his refusal to name an NFP prime minister but experts say it has little chance of succeeding. Mélenchon's allies are holding a rally on Saturday to call for the ouster of both Macron and Barnier.
Fabien Roussel, the leader of a Communist party that's a smaller member of the NFP, called Macron's move "a middle finger to the French who aspire to change," roughly translated, in a social media post.
The PS, which includes such figures as former President François Hollande and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, hasn't joined the impeachment call but was critical of Macron's process. Olivier Faure, the party's leader, called it an affront to democracy.
"Democratic denial at its peak: a Prime Minister from the party that came in 4th place and who did not even participate in the republican front," Faure said. "We're entering a crisis of regime."
The transfer of power to Barnier was set for 6 pm local time at Hôtel Matignon on Thursday.