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A victory by Josh Weil in Florida and/or Judge Crawford in Wisconsin could put wind in the sails of the Trump resistance.
If you live in Wisconsin or in the 6th congressional district of Florida, you’ll have a chance to do something today the rest of us only dream about doing—tell President Donald Trump and Elon Musk to go to hell.
In Florida’s 6th, House Republicans had expected an easy win to replace Rep. Michael Waltz, who became Trump’s national security adviser (but may not be much longer, given his role in Signalgate). Trump won the district by 30 percentage points last November.
But Democratic candidate Josh Weil has a real chance of winning there. If he does, the Republicans’ margin in the House shrinks to just two.
If there was ever a symbol of why we need to get big money out of politics, reform campaign financing, stop conflicts of interest, and tax great wealth, Musk is it.
In Wisconsin, the race is for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Democrat Judge Susan Crawford is clearly more qualified and more, well, judge-like than her opponent Brad Shimel, but their temperaments and characters are not the largest issues.
The winner in Wisconsin could well determine voting districts and, hence, the likelihood that the state provides more Democratic or Republican representatives in the 2026 midterms and swings Republican or Democrat in the 2028 presidential race.
Musk is a big factor. He’s already sunk a small fortune into backing the Republican candidate for Wisconsin Supreme Court—along with the same kind of million-dollar giveaway stunt he used in the presidential race.
Last night, Musk gave out two $1 million checks. One of the two recipients? The head of the Wisconsin College Republicans.
A new video released by Musk’s America PAC is further evidence that Musk’s massive cash giveaways are illegal vote buying. In the clip, a Wisconsin woman named Ekaterina Deistler, who won a $1 million prize, explicitly links her financial windfall to following Musk’s instructions—including voting.
The richest man in the world has no compunctions about throwing his wealth behind the worst possible candidates in America—as when he plunked down over a quarter trillion dollars to get Trump elected.
He has also used—or threatened to use—his wealth to back anyone who runs in a primary election against any Republican member of Congress who doesn’t totally support Trump. It’s an extortion racket that is not only helping to keep congressional Republicans silent and pliable, but has no legitimate place in our democracy.
If there was ever a symbol of why we need to get big money out of politics, reform campaign financing, stop conflicts of interest, and tax great wealth, Musk is it.
Not incidentally (speaking of conflicts of interest) Musk’s auto company, Tesla, has a case against Wisconsin pending in the state’s courts.
Polls opened in Wisconsin at 7:00 am CT and will close at 8:00 pm CT. If the margin of victory is large, the race could be called early. If close, it could come down to absentee ballots in Milwaukee, which are likely heavily Democratic and might not be fully counted until midnight or later.
The early vote appears more favorable to Judge Crawford than it was to Harris in 2024—which is good news for Crawford, although the GOP early vote has shot up relative to previous Wisconsin Supreme Court races.
One final and more general thought about these two elections today.
They’re extraordinary expensive and prominent. That’s because they’re both viewed as potential harbingers of what’s in store for Republicans or Democrats in future elections, both special elections and the 2026 midterms.
No one knows which direction the political winds are blowing and how hard, because America has never been in the place it’s in right now—with a tyrannical president aided by the richest person in the world.
Democrats have had reason to crow recently about flipping Republican-held state legislative seats in recent special elections in Iowa and Pennsylvania. On Saturday, voters in Louisiana rejected four proposed constitutional amendments backed by Republican Gov. Jeff Landry that would have overhauled parts of the state’s tax codes and toughened penalties for juvenile offenders.
A victory by Josh Weil in Florida and/or Judge Crawford in Wisconsin could put wind in the sails of the Trump resistance. Let’s all hope that Floridians in the 6th district and the good people of Wisconsin do what the nation needs them to do.
Despite VP Harris’ loss, the results of this election cycle proved that investing in women is not only central to creating a more representative government; it’s also a strong electoral strategy.
It’s crushing to witness the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, a man who built his campaign, and his entire political career at large, on hatred, division, and lies.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss was a deeply devastating one for so many of us—and certainly one of the hardest I’ve had to swallow throughout my career in Democratic politics—but skepticism about the viability of a woman becoming president in our lifetimes has added even further insult to injury.
As the president of EMILYs List, one thing I know with certainty is this: Underestimating the strength of women candidates based on the outcome of the presidential race is a grave mistake. The results of this election cycle proved that investing in women is not only central to creating a more representative government; it’s also a strong electoral strategy.
Men lose campaigns all the time, particularly in the last 40 years as EMILYs List has grown, yet we never question whether another man can win in the future.
Across the ballot this year, women candidates were key to winning races under even the most difficult of circumstances and up against tremendous headwinds. Democratic women held onto highly competitive Senate seats in three battleground states that were won by Trump and won in four House districts that Trump carried. They flipped key Republican-held House seats from coast to coast—in Oregon’s 5th and New York’s 4th congressional districts. They broke Republican supermajorities in states across the country, and they protected and flipped vital state Supreme Court seats that are going to be essential to protecting our freedoms in years to come.
It’s clear: Women have what it takes to win. And Americans are ready and fired up to elect them.
That’s because voters know who crafts our policy matters. Women candidates bring personal perspectives and professional experiences that make a difference on the campaign trail and in our government. Whether it’s Lisa Blunt Rochester’s personal connection to IVF, Lucy McBath losing her son to gun violence, or Lauren Underwood’s experience as a public health expert—their deep understanding of these issues and their deep-rooted commitment to enacting change shapes policy in ways that better the lives of their constituents. When these women shared their stories on the campaign trail this year, voters responded by turning out in their favor.
Pundits will try to diminish the practicality of running Democratic women candidates for president in the future, and voters may feel disillusioned as they watch Donald Trump be sworn in. So we must be clear about the truth surrounding the presidential race: Kamala Harris is the reason that the election was as close as it was. At a time when Democrats were poised to lose big, her leadership galvanized millions of previously apathetic voters and evened the playing field for our party amid an immensely challenging environment.
Immediately after announcing her candidacy, Harris shattered fundraising records, hauling in $81 million in her first 24 hours as the nominee. She erased the enthusiasm gap among critical voters—creating a 56-point jump in young women’s motivation to vote and a 68% increase in motivation to vote among women in battleground states. She drove massive spikes across voter registration and volunteer sign-ups. And while it wasn’t enough to overcome the challenges she inherited, her ability to quickly narrow Democrats’ deficits against Donald Trump is a testament to the strength of women candidates and the continued need to invest in their leadership.
Men lose campaigns all the time, particularly in the last 40 years as EMILYs List has grown, yet we never question whether another man can win in the future. We don’t debate their electability or the shortcomings of their gender—and we don’t let those limitations stand between them and the highest levels of our government.
To let gendered biases overshadow women’s extensive qualifications, their ability to best represent our communities, and their demonstrable strength as candidates, is a disservice to the American people and to our future. Misconceptions about women’s electability become a self-fulfilling prophecy only if we let them.
Kamala Harris herself said it best: It hurts to break glass ceilings. But just because we haven’t broken our nation’s highest and hardest glass ceiling yet doesn’t mean we won’t.
The women who won in 2024 reinforced a vital lesson: investing in women candidates is a winning strategy for the Democratic Party. So now is not the time to doubt, question, or give up on them. It’s time to double down on them—because women are our best pathway to taking back power. And with their leadership, we will undoubtedly shatter our nation’s last glass ceiling.
Believing the current style of door-knocking wins campaigns is the same as believing in Santa Claus.
Once upon a time, in a precinct long, long ago, there was a campaign that built voter contact programs solely from those who lived in the targeted neighborhood. The entire community shopped at the same grocery stores and even saw one another at the bank, gym, and library. In other words, this was totally different from today's "ground game," manned by people who drive from hours away, armed with clipboards, shiny new campaign t-shirts, and ready to tell residents exactly how they should vote.
While a ton of articles have been written about the importance of the "ground game" in the final days of the Harris campaign, no one is discussing the increasing problems and decreasing rate of return of this tactic. Time Magazine's October election article, "Democrats Bank on Ground Game Advantage in Pennsylvania," opens with the author observing that "most of the people on Elana Hunter's list weren't answering the door," but does not dig into the actual problem. The same is true with campaign analysis in hundreds of other news outlets. The New York Times wrote a lengthy piece comparing Vice President Kamala Harris' in-house door-knocking operation to the Trump campaign's outsourced field operation. The article highlights both sides bragging about how many doors they knocked on and how much paid staff was hired. But, neither side (nor the writers) discuss how few people answer their doors or even care what the stranger is selling.
This analysis misses the real problems of modern-day door knocking: Voters don't open their doors anymore, voters do not know their neighbors, and undecided voters are more skeptical than ever when it comes to talking about politics.
As Democrats, we should know that a last-minute paid "ground game" that gets dropped into the battleground days before an election hasn't worked in years.
Year-round precinct work with "local captains" who knew their "turf" and how each neighbor would vote disappeared as the campaign industry grew and political parties stopped building traditional ward systems. Instead, they were replaced with volunteers and paid voices that only knocked on doors during major elections. This transition from a known, trusted neighbor to an unknown door knocker has made modern campaigning a data-driven competition that ignores effectiveness as it optimizes toward knocking on the most doors.
Nonetheless, message and messenger still matter in all aspects of campaigns, especially in the field. Door-to-door salesmen are a relic of history (Even the legendary Fuller Brush company started transitioning out of door-to-door sales in 1985).
Public safety studies show neighborhoods are more responsive to community policing programs when public safety officers know the people they serve. Why would political campaigns be different?
Technology has also had a major impact on door knocking. It's now been a decade since the invention of video door camera technology. According to a 2024 Consumer Reports study, 30% of Americans use video door cameras. These changes in neighborhood dynamics and consumer behaviors are realities that must be faced.
The rite-of-passage, where a volunteer gets lost in below-freezing weather canvassing an unknown precinct or gets bitten by a dog while knocking on doors, needs to be relegated to history. While campaign war stories are fun, it's time to be honest about the changing times and begin a new chapter: These age-old tactics are neither sacred nor effective. If no one is home or no one is answering their door even if they are home, political campaigns need to change with the times.
To win more elections, target voters with appropriate messages and messengers. It's time to explore better ways to use scarce time, people, and money to achieve the desired victory. Are there better places to send volunteers to work more efficiently and rally potential voters?
This is not to say that field organizing should be discarded or that campaigns should go completely digital. (Lots of criticism is being written on the current problems with these newer tactics that will hopefully be fixed.) But, as the Democratic Party's messaging and mobilization are transformed, an honest assessment of all tactics is needed to understand what works and create better ways to win.
Remember, just because a tactic worked on one campaign, it will not always continue to work the same four years later. We have tried this with auto-calling and text messaging technologies and know they have diminishing returns each cycle. Now is the time to dig deep and have honest conversations with field organizers and volunteers to learn what tactics need to be retired and start adopting new approaches.
Let's stop pretending that more "fake neighbors" door-knocking is the solution to the Democrats' problems and focus on how to best reach targeted voters with a message that resonates, delivered by respected voices that matter, while we have time now to build a real organic field effort.
As Democrats, we should know that a last-minute paid "ground game" that gets dropped into the battleground days before an election hasn't worked in years. It didn't work on Howard Dean's well-funded 2004 campaign that flew tons of staff and volunteers to Iowa. It's now 20 years after the infamous Dean scream, and we continue to blindly follow the same failed "orange cap" tactics of these past campaigns: inserting last-minute volunteers and door-knocking teams instead of thinking about how to create long-term community-based approaches.
We all have to grow up at some point and face the truth. Or you could keep believing in Santa Claus and see what gift he brings you in the next election cycle.