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2024 Still on Track to Be First Full Year That Breached 1.5°C
"No surprise at all, but still shocking news. Will temperatures drop below 1.5°C again? I have my doubts," said one climate scientist.
Dec 09, 2024
Data from the first 11 months of 2024 reaffirmed that the globe is set to pass a grim milestone this year, according to the European Union's earth observation program.
The E.U.'s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in a report Monday that November 2024 was 1.62°C above the preindustrial level, making it the 16th month in a 17-month stretch during which global-average surface air temperature breached 1.5°C. November 2024 was the second-warmest November, after November of last year, according to C3S.
"At this point, it is effectively certain that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record and more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level," according to a Monday statement from C3S. With data for November in hand, the service estimates that global temperature is set to be 1.59°C above the pre-industrial level for 2024, up from 1.48°C last year.
C3S announced last month that 2024 was "virtually certain" to be the hottest year on record after October 2024 hit 1.65°C higher than preindustrial levels.
"This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S.
Under the 2015 Paris agreement, signatory countries pledged to reduce their global greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of keeping global temperature rise this century to 1.5ºC, well below 2°C above preindustrial levels. According to the United Nations, going above 1.5ºC on an annual or monthly basis doesn't constitute failure to reach the agreement's goal, which refers to temperature rise over decades—however, "breaches of 1.5°C for a month or a year are early signs of getting perilously close to exceeding the long-term limit, and serve as clarion calls for increasing ambition and accelerating action in this critical decade."
Additionally, a recent paper in the journal Naturewarned of irreversible impacts from overshooting the 1.5ºC target, even temporarily.
Climate scientist and volcanologist Bill McGuire reacted to the news Monday, saying: "Average temperature for 2024 expected to be 1.60°C. A massive hike on 2023, which itself was the hottest year for probably 120,000 years. No surprise at all, but still shocking news. Will temperatures drop below 1.5°C again? I have my doubts."
The update comes on the heels of COP29, the most recent U.N. climate summit, which many climate campaigners viewed as a disappointment. During the summit, attendees sought to reach a climate financing agreement that would see rich, developed countries contribute money to help developing countries decarbonize and deal with the impacts of the climate emergency. The final dollar amount, according to critics, fell far short of what developing countries need.
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Climate Crisis Made Deadly Heatwave in US and Mexico 35 Times More Likely
"As long as humans fill the atmosphere with fossil-fuel emissions, the heat will only get worse—vulnerable people will continue to die," an author of the analysis said.
Jun 20, 2024
Scientists on Thursday released an analysis showing the likely role of climate change in creating the deadly heatwave that hit areas including Mexico and the U.S. south in late May and early June.
Record-breaking heat caused by a heat dome, which engulfed areas from Nevada to Honduras, was hotter and more likely to occur due to the climate crisis, with five-day maximum daytime temperatures 35 times more likely than in pre-industrial times and nighttime temperatures 200 times more likely, scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) found.
At least 35 died of related illness in just one week in early June in Mexico, and the total death toll may have been much higher. The scientists emphasized that the extreme weather causing the death and suffering was brought about by fossil fuel emissions.
"Unsurprisingly, heatwaves are getting deadlier," Friederike Otto, a co-author of the study and climate scientist at Imperial College London, toldThe Guardian. "We've known about the dangers of climate change at least since the 1970s. But thanks to spineless politicians, who give in to fossil-fuel lobbying again and again, the world continues to burn huge amounts of oil, gas, and coal."
Deadly heat that would have been very rare without climate change & even relatively rare just 20 years ago, now common event due to continued increase in emissions from burning fossil fuels. We now this is happening, but we are not prepared. https://t.co/M93eB8TiIu pic.twitter.com/4U8lIXB8xN
— Dr Friederike Otto (@FrediOtto) June 20, 2024
The analysis was published on the same day that the Energy Institute reported that fossil fuel consumption climbed to a record high in 2023, with coal, oil, and gas still making up more than 80% of the global energy mix, though the figure fell below 70% in Europe for the first time.
May was the 12th consecutive month that was the hottest on record globally, compared to the same time period in previous years. And June has proved to be dangerously hot in many areas, with hundreds dying in the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia as temperatures rose above 124°F and Balkan countries, as well as much of the U.S., currently under extreme heat advisories.
The WWA scientists sought to connect the May-June heatwave to these larger trends, and repeatedly explained the cause of the problem.
"As long as humans fill the atmosphere with fossil-fuel emissions, the heat will only get worse—vulnerable people will continue to die and the cost of living will continue to increase," Izidine Pinto, a co-author and researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, told The Guardian.
The heatwave coincided with a drought in Mexico, exacerbating already dire conditions as water supplies dwindled and electricity systems faltered. It also followed, and may have helped prolong, a terrible outbreak of dengue in Latin America and the Caribbean that caused over 1,800 deaths. "Every heatwave is a push that builds up dengue transmission," an expert toldScientific American in April. Dengue cases have begun to decline but still persist, according toDialogue Earth.
The May-June heatwave was notable for especially high nighttime temperatures, which prevent the body from resting and recovering from the daytime heat—a process that's only possible below about 80°F. Certain places in the study area saw nighttime temperatures "with return periods of up to 1000 years."
The climate crisis is changing the likelihood of such weather. "The extreme heat slamming the eastern U.S. this week may be a sign of things to come," The Hill's Zach Budryk wrote Thursday.
That was similar to the message of the WWA scientists.
"These trends will continue with future warming and events like the one observed in 2024 will be very common in a 2°C world," according to their analysis, which refers to a time when the planet has heated 2°C above preindustrial levels; it's already heated up by more than 1°C.
In the analysis, the authors called for warning systems, action plans, laws to protect outdoor workers, and other resilience measures such as better grid systems and more green spaces.
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Global Air Pollution Kills 2,000 Kids Under Five Every Day: Report
"Our inaction is having profound effects on the next generation, with lifelong health and well-being impacts," said one UNICEF official.
Jun 19, 2024
Air pollution is now the second-biggest killer of children under the age of five globally, a new report released Wednesday shows, with the climate emergency and the continued use of dirty energy sources inextricably linked to the growing risk faced by young children exposed to toxic fumes.
Each day, according to the State of Global Air report by the Health Effects Institute (HEI) and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), nearly 2,000 children under the age of five die from the effects of air pollution, with children in the Global South most at risk.
In most African countries, children under five are 100 times more likely to die from asthma and other other effects of air pollution than their counterparts in high-income countries.
In 2021, according to the report, air pollution was second only to malnutrition as a risk factor for death among young children. For the general population, air pollution overtook tobacco use as the second-leading cause of death worldwide, with high blood pressure still the leading cause.
Air pollution now kills more children worldwide than poor sanitation and a lack of clean drinking water.
The report should serve as "a stark reminder of the significant impacts air pollution has on human health, with far too much of the burden borne by young children, older populations, and low- and middle-income countries," said Dr. Pallavi Pant, head of global health for HEI. "This points sharply at an opportunity for cities and countries to consider air quality and air pollution as high risk factors when developing health policies and other noncommunicable disease prevention and control programs."
"As droughts become more severe and prolonged and land becomes drier, wildfires ravage once-thriving forests and dust storms impact vast plains, filling the air with particles that linger for long periods of time."
The analysis pointed to specific ways in which the effects of the climate emergency, such as prolonged droughts and the wildfires that have resulted from dry conditions in places like Chile and Canada, has made it more likely that children around the world will suffer from life-threatening air pollution.
"As droughts become more severe and prolonged and land becomes drier, wildfires ravage once-thriving forests and dust storms impact vast plains, filling the air with particles that linger for long periods of time," reads the report.
The particles that HEI and UNICEF expressed the greatest concern about are particulate matter (PM) 2.5, which are smaller than 2.4 micrometers in diameter and can enter people's bloodstreams and organs. PM 2.5 has been associated with heart disease, stroke, lung disease, and other health problems, and is behind 90% of air pollution-related deaths.
PM 2.5 is carried into communities through wildfire smoke and emissions, but can also be present in homes as people across the Global South—including 95% of the population in at least 18 African countries—rely on the burning of solid fuels for cooking.
About half a million children died in 2021 from exposure to polluted indoor air, according to HEI, as families rely on burning coal, paraffin, and other solid fuels.
Providing families with cleaner-burning cookstoves, grid electricity, and cleaner fuels has helped cut childhood deaths from pollution by 53% since 2000, according to the report, but the number of children continuing to die from indoor air pollution is "staggering," said HEI.
"Our inaction is having profound effects on the next generation, with lifelong health and well-being impacts," said Kitty van der Heijden, deputy executive director of UNICEF. "The global urgency is undeniable. It is imperative that governments and businesses consider these estimates and locally available data and use it to inform meaningful, child-focused action to reduce air pollution and protect children's health."
Along with wildfires and the use of dirty fuels for household needs, the climate emergency's impact on global temperatures is linked to the high death toll from air pollution among children.
High temperatures can cause a higher prevalence of pollutants like nitrogen oxides and ozone, which can irritate people's airways and cause more frequent and severe symptoms in people with asthma. Long-term exposure to ground-level ozone pollution is also linked to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPB), which accounted for nearly half a million of 8 million worldwide deaths related to air pollution in 2021.
While air pollution is disproportionately harming children and adults in low-income countries, wealthy countries including the U.S. are also affected by ozone pollution, which can be heightened by high temperatures.
"In 2021, nearly 50% of all ozone-related COPD deaths were in India (237,000 deaths) followed by China (125,600 deaths) and Bangladesh (15,000 deaths)," reads the report. "Notably, the United States—partly due to its sizable population, widespread ozone pollution, and relatively high rates of COPD—saw 14,000 deaths in 2021, more than any other high-income country."
Asthma and Lung U.K. said HEI's report showed the need for policymakers to pass laws providing funding for families to purchase electric vehicles or use other cleaner travel options.
"Air pollution's impact on child health is unacceptable," said the London-based group. "We need political parties to step up and commit to clean air laws now to reduce air pollution and protect children."
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