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fed rate hikes
Fed Warned to Stop 'Needless Rate Hikes' as Inflation Cools for 10th Straight Month
“The verdict is in: we don't have to choose between low prices and low unemployment. We can have both," said one economist.
May 10, 2023
Progressive economists on Wednesday welcomed newly released U.S. inflation data as further evidence that price increases can be brought under control without crushing the labor market and throwing millions out of work.
But they also warned that the still-strong job market could falter, with devastating consequences for workers, if the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates in the coming months.
"The verdict is in: We don't have to choose between low prices and low unemployment. We can have both," said the Groundwork Collaborative's Lindsay Owens after the Labor Department released new data showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.9% in April compared with the previous year—a cooler figure than analysts expected.
"Today's inflation numbers show 10 straight months of falling inflation on the heels of a 53-year record low unemployment rate," Owens said, referring to last week's better-than-anticipated jobs report. "The only thing left to do now is to ensure that [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell doesn't screw it up with needless rate hikes that would accelerate instability in financial markets and jeopardize our strong labor market."
Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, called the new CPI data "good news for working people," noting that "inflation is nearly back to pre-recession rates, while the unemployment rate is at 50-year lows."
\u201cGood news for working people\u2014inflation is nearly back to pre-recession rates, while the unemployment rate is at 50-year lows.\u201d— Heidi Shierholz (@Heidi Shierholz) 1683725861
The new CPI figures came a week after the Federal Reserve imposed its 10th consecutive interest rate increase since March 2022, ignoring repeated warnings from outside experts, lawmakers, and even the Fed's own economists that the aggressive attempt to slow the economy and tamp down inflation risks a disastrous recession and mass job loss.
During a press conference last week, Powell left the door open to a pause of interest rate hikes at the Fed's June meeting but did not make a firm commitment, pledging only to "be driven by incoming data meeting by meeting."
Progressives advocates and experts, including Owens, have consistently argued for more than a year that interest rate increases—which target economic demand by raising borrowing costs—are the wrong response to inflation driven by many factors beyond the Fed's direct control, from pandemic-induced supply chain snags to corporate profiteering.
While prominent pundits have dismissed the notion that corporate profit-seeking during the pandemic helps explain persistently high inflation in the U.S. and across the globe, mainstream publications such as The Wall Street Journal have determined that progressive economists were right to emphasize big business pricing power as a significant culprit.
"There are signs that companies are doing more than covering their costs," the Journalreported last week. "According to economists at the [European Central Bank], businesses have been padding their profits. That, they said, was a bigger factor in fueling inflation during the second half of last year than rising wages were."
Major companies have used the windfalls from their price hikes to reward investors. The watchdog group Accountable.US noted in a report released Wednesday that Mondelez, which owns Belvita and Chips Ahoy!, "saw a shocking 142% increase in quarterly earnings after announcing price hikes, which empowered it to spend $928 million in dividends and stock buybacks for their wealthiest shareholders."
"It shouldn't come as a shock that Chair Powell’s actions have eroded public trust in the central bank."
A Gallup poll released Tuesday showed that just 36% of U.S. adults have either a "great deal" or a "fair amount" of confidence in Powell, a former private equity executive first nominated to the Fed chairmanship by former President Donald Trump.
President Joe Biden renominated Powell to the critical post in late 2021 despite outspoken opposition from some Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
"The 36% rating for Powell is the lowest Gallup has measured for him during his six years as Fed chair. It is also the lowest reading Gallup has had for any prior Fed chair," the polling organization noted in a summary of its findings.
Owens said in response to the survey that "it shouldn't come as a shock that Chair Powell's actions have eroded public trust in the central bank."
"Instead of fighting for a strong labor market and securing our banking system, Chair Powell has enacted 10 consecutive rate hikes and put us at risk of a recession," said Owens. "Americans want a Fed that is on their side, not the side of big banks."
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Warren, Sanders, and 8 Others to Powell: Stop Hiking Rates or Risk Terrible Recession
"We strongly urge you to respect the Fed's dual mandate, pause your rate hikes, and avoid engineering a recession that destroys jobs and crushes small businesses."
May 03, 2023
Ten lawmakers including progressive Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders implored the Federal Reserve to impose a pause on interest rate hikes during its Wednesday meeting, warning that further financial tightening in the name of fighting inflation would risk a brutal, job-killing recession.
In a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week, the members of Congress expressed deep concern that "the Fed risks throwing millions of Americans out of work in its drive to raise interest rates even higher—even as Fed staff have already projected a recession this year amid financial market headwinds and even as you have acknowledged that inflation can slow without destroying the labor market, that the most significant drivers of inflation are not demand-based, and that the economy has not yet experienced the full impact of its earlier rate increases."
"We strongly urge you to respect the Fed's dual mandate, pause your rate hikes, and avoid engineering a recession that destroys jobs and crushes small businesses," they wrote.
The letter was sent amid further evidence that the Fed's aggressive interest rate increases—which are aimed at curbing economic demand by making borrowing more expensive—are taking their toll on the economy, with wage and job growth slowing and layoffs increasing. Recent turmoil in the banking industry, including the failure of several mid-sized banks, has also been tied to the Fed's nine consecutive rate hikes.
On top of worsening economic conditions at home and abroad, the lawmakers wrote in their letter to Powell that "it is even more difficult to justify such aggressive rate hikes at the moment given that inflation over the past six months has already declined significantly, averaging just 3.6% at an annualized rate, compared to 6.4% for the previous six months."
"While the Fed should remain flexible to incoming data as it assesses the economy's progress toward achieving lower inflation, the evidence to date suggests that progress can continue to be made without slamming the brakes on the economy and costing millions of Americans their jobs," the lawmakers continued. "Your recent comments, however, suggest that you remain committed to the idea that millions of workers must lose their jobs in order to bring inflation to heel."
The letter cites Powell's claim during a recent press conference that the economy can't "have a sustainable return to 2% inflation"—the Fed's arbitrary target—"without a better balance in the labor market," Fed-speak for more layoffs.
"Continuing to raise interest rates would be an abandonment of the Fed's dual mandate to achieve both maximum employment and price stability."
Powell has suggested that the Fed can prevent unemployment from rising to disastrous levels, but experts have warned that it is difficult to prevent mass layoffs from spreading once they begin.
The members of Congress echoed that fear in their letter to Powell, writing that "history casts doubt on the Fed's ability to engineer an unemployment rate that just 'rise[s] a bit.'"
"Since World War II, the unemployment rate has never increased by one percentage point within a year outside of a recession: the unemployment rate has increased by one percentage point 12 times since 1945, and in all 12 times that increase has been in the context of a recession," they noted. "And every time the unemployment rate increased by a full percentage point, it continued to increase far beyond that level. The Fed's projections that unemployment will essentially stay level in 2024 after pushing the economy into a recession in 2023, warns an economist concerned with maintaining full employment, 'amounts to a convenient delusion.'"
Warren (D-Mass.), Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), and the other letter signatories argued that rate hikes are not the solution to inflationary pressures caused by many factors beyond excessive economic demand—including supply chain shocks and corporate profiteering.
"Continuing to raise interest rates," they wrote, "would be an abandonment of the Fed's dual mandate to achieve both maximum employment and price stability and show little regard for the small businesses and working families that will get caught in the wreckage."
Despite such urgent warnings, the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
"At the end of its two-day gathering," the Financial Times reported Tuesday, "the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise its benchmark policy rate to a new target range of 5-5.25%, the highest level since mid-2007."
Fed-induced economic fears have been compounded by House Republicans' refusal to lift the debt ceiling, obstruction that is pushing the U.S. and global economies to the brink of a devastating crisis.
Rakeen Mabud, chief economist of the Groundwork Collaborative, said Tuesday that "Chair Powell and the Fed have made it clear that high interest rates are here to stay, even if it means trampling on one of the strongest labor markets in history."
"The Fed's actions are heightening the risk of a painful recession and causing instability in financial markets," said Mabud. "If the Fed insists on raising rates again this week, it is jeopardizing the progress we have made towards building a healthier and more inclusive economy for all."
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The Fed Accused of 'Playing With Fire' After Latest Rate Hike
"It shouldn't take a lot of courage to resist another interest rate hike when the economy is this fragile," said one critic.
Mar 22, 2023
Progressive economists and other experts blasted Federal Reserve leadership on Wednesday for raising interest rates yet again despite concerns about recent bank failures and how the quarter-point increase will impact the U.S. and global economies.
"Once again, interest rate hikes are going to fall hardest on low-wage workers and the poor—the same people who have already been hurt the most by rising prices," tweeted University of California, Berkeley professor and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich. "Higher rates could also imperil more banks, and risk even more financial chaos. The Fed is playing with fire."
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday that although the Federal Open Market Committee "did consider" a pause on rate increases following the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank failures, officials ultimately decided to raise the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75-5%, the highest level since 2007.
"The Fed under Chair Powell made a mistake not pausing its extreme interest rate hikes," declared Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) a fierce critic of nine consecutive rate hikes since last March as well as the Fed's regulatory rollbacks that preceded the bank collapses.
"I've warned for months that the Fed's current path risks throwing millions of Americans out of work. We have many tools to fight inflation without pushing the economy off a cliff," added Warren, who has repeatedly called for ousting Powell.
Patriotic Millionaires chair Morris Pearl—a bank bailout expert and former managing director at BlackRock—similarly contended that "the Fed's decision to keep pushing forward with rate hikes no matter the circumstances is a dangerous mistake."
Describing such hikes as "a blunt instrument," he stressed that high interest rates "are not well suited to the economic realities the country now faces—and will inevitably end up doing more harm than good."
Pearl continued:
In our modern economy, high interest rates are simply not an effective way to fight inflation. Rate hikes have disproportionately hurt just a few sectors, like housing, automobiles, and some banks and investors, while leaving many of the nation's largest employers relatively unscathed.
Rising interest rates do nothing to address a major cause of inflation, corporate price gouging, and actually make another long-term cause, lack of investment in new housing, worse. Instead, the Fed is betting that lowering employment and cooling wage growth is the best solution to inflation.
Higher interest rates may be a cure for inflation, but if they end up causing another banking crisis, or pushing the economy into a recession, the cure may be worse than the disease.
An analysis released Wednesday by Accountable.US explained that "SVB's failure was partly due partly to a 'plunge' in bond value and $1.8 billion in 'paper losses' amid the Fed's rate hikes. By the end of 2022, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) had warned that U.S. banks were 'sitting on $620 billion in unrealized losses' that may make their balance sheets appear healthier than they really are."
The watchdog group found that "at the end of 2022, the five biggest U.S. banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank Of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and U.S. Bank—reported a total of $233 billion in unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities, including $54 billion in unrealized losses on Treasury securities. These same banks reported a combined $39.4 billion in unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities, including $12.7 billion in losses on available-for-sale U.S. Treasuries."
Liz Zelnick, director of economic security and corporate power at Accountable.US, warned Wednesday that "hiking interest rates, even if more slowly, will devastate Main Street and Wall Street alike by wiping out millions of jobs while sending Treasury securities into a downward spiral," acknowledging that the recent bank turmoil prevented an even bigger increase than 25 basis points.
"A recession and broken financial system are not worth the price of higher interest rates that have failed miserably to curb the corporate greed epidemic helping to drive up costs," Zelnick added. "To date, the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell have been more than willing to let average American families bear the brunt of their job-killing strategy—but are they also willing to let their banker friends on Wall Street go down with the ship?"
The Hill highlighted that ahead of Wednesday's announcement, influential figures such as economist Paul Krugman and analysts for Goldman Sachs—in a Monday letter to investors—had advocated for pausing rate hikes.
"Bank stress calls for a pause," wrote Goldman Sachs analysts. "Banking is not just another sector of the economy because financial intermediation is vital to every sector. As a result, addressing stress in the banking system is the most immediate concern and must take priority over other less urgent goals for the moment. We expect that policymakers and staff economists at the Fed will have the same view."
During his Wednesday press conference, Powell insisted that "our banking system is sound and resilient with strong capital and liquidity. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe and sound."
While Powell also emphasized the Fed's commitment to learning from the recent SVB and Signature failures to prevent repeat events, both the bank collapses and a year of rate hikes have fueled calls for his ouster.
Asked by CNN's Jake Tapper on Wednesday whether she had ever directly told President Joe Biden that he should fire Powell, Warren said she wouldn't talk about private conversations "but what I will say is I've made it very clear as publicly as humanly possible that I didn't think that he should be reconfirmed as chair of the Fed. And I think he's doing a really terrible job."
"And he's doing a terrible job on both fronts," she said, referring to the Fed's dual mandate. In terms of oversight, Powell "has spent five years weakening regulations over these multibillion-dollar banks," and on monetary policy, he is "risking pushing our economy into a recession."
"What he's trying to do is get two million people laid off, and one of the things that we need to understand: He wants to raise the unemployment rate by more than a point within a single 12-month period. We have done that before in this country. In fact, we have done it 12 times before. And out of all 12 times, how many times has it resulted in a recession?" she said. "The answer is 12."
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