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The more important story in Gallup’s recent findings is that Independent voters have soured on Donald Trump, with two-thirds disapproving of his economic performance.
As a self-confessed polling nerd, I have studied polling for decades. One of the more interesting things I have done in my life is worked as an analyst for a prominent Democratic polling firm. There is no organization with a better reputation than Gallup. Founded way back in 1935, Gallup is truly the gold standard. Their nonpartisan reputation is without question. However, Gallup has not been perfect: It predicted New York Gov. Thomas Dewey would beat President Harry Truman back in 1948 and it had Gerald Ford edging out Jimmy Carter back in 1976. Despite these misses, you could always depend on Gallup to uphold the strictest methodological ethics and, even more importantly, they would report their data without any spin. Sometimes I liked what the Gallup reported, other times I did not.
So, when Gallup released new polling data last Thursday, I eagerly clicked on the link. I was wondering if President Donald Trump’s job approval was trending up or down. The headline of the Gallup press release was “Republicans, Men Push Trump Approval Higher in Second Term.” I was perplexed by the sub-header which said “Black, Hispanic adults more approving of Trump in second term, but still disapprove of him overall.”
The point that Gallup is making is that in 2017, 22% of Hispanics approved of Trump’s job performance while now it is 37%. Similarly, Black voters are more positive about Trump now than they were in 2017 (13% vs. 22%). This is a notable trend and one that political analysts need to watch. However, Gallup is missing the bigger point that if Trump wants to make inroads in the Black and Hispanic communities, he has a lot of work to do.
The only problem for Democrats, and it is a big one, is that the party needs to come up with an economic message.
The more important story in Gallup’s findings is that Independent voters have soured on Donald Trump. Fully 61% of Independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Independent voters’ feelings about Trump’s job as president are intense—fully 46% strongly disapprove of his performance.
When asked about Trump’s handling of the economy, two-thirds (66%) of Independents disapprove of Trump’s performance.
CNN 2024 exit polling showed that Trump lost Independent voters by 3 percentage points to Harris (49% Harris, 46% Trump). So, if we take voters’ perceptions of Trump’s handling of the economy as a proxy for their intention to vote for the GOP 2028 presidential candidate, it is evident that Republicans have some work to do to win over Independents.
Granted, the 2028 presidential election is years away. However, next year are the midterm elections. Historically, midterm elections go against the party in the White House. Furthermore, the polling that Gallup did does not measure the impact of Trump’s tariffs that will go into effect on April 2. Even the Trump administration has admitted that the president’s economic policies will cause problems in the short-term.
All of this is good news for Democrats. The only problem for Democrats, and it is a big one, is that the party needs to come up with an economic message. They have a real opportunity to take back the economy as an issue among Independents (34% of the 2024 electorate). For all our sake, I hope the party does not miss this opportunity.
A Gallup survey released Wednesday shows that U.S. public support for Israel's military assault on Gaza has plummeted since November, with the decline particularly sharp among Democratic voters whom President Joe Biden will need to turn out to win reelection against presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump.
Just 18% of Democratic voters currently approve of "the military action Israel has taken in Gaza" and 75% disapprove, according to the new poll, which was conducted between March 1-20. In November, 36% of Democratic respondents expressed approval of Israel's war and 63% disapproved.
"The crosstabs are even more striking—nearly two-thirds of people under 54, people of color, and women disapprove of the military action in Gaza," Sam Rosenthal, political director of the progressive advocacy group RootsAction, told Common Dreams in response to the new poll. "That is effectively the Democratic Party's base."
"Given these numbers," Rosenthal added, "I don't know how President Biden can reconcile his stalwart support for Israel with the clear preference that his core constituents have for an end to this war."
Overall, Gallup found that 55% of the American public—including 60% of Independents and 30% of Republicans—disapproves of Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip, up from 45% in November. Just 36% of the U.S. public approves, down from 50% four months ago.
"Biden is risking his second term and our democracy by continuing to support the kind of violence and cruelty that is being perpetrated in Gaza right now."
Observers
noted that Gallup's new poll was conducted after the Israeli military's February 29 massacre of Palestinians seeking food aid. Since October, according to one human rights monitor, Israeli forces have killed more than 560 people waiting for humanitarian aid, the delivery of which Israel's government has intentionally hindered—fueling the spread of famine across the territory.
The Biden administration has backed Israel's assault from the beginning, providing the Netanyahu government with billions of dollars worth of weapons and diplomatic cover despite widespread and growing protests at home and abroad. Gallup's survey found that 74% of U.S. adults say they are following developments in Gaza "closely."
Political analyst Yousef Munayyer wrote on social media that "Biden's policy of continued support for Israel's war on Gaza is in line with the views of the right-wing Republicans," noting that 64% of GOP voters still approve of the Israeli assault—down slightly from 71% in November.
"Just to emphasize how extreme his position is and out of line with his voters," he added, "more Republicans disapprove of the war than Democrats who approve."
Growing Democratic opposition to Israel's military action in Gaza has fueled grassroots campaigns across the country urging voters to mark "uncommitted" on their Democratic primary ballots to pressure Biden to change course ahead of the general election against Trump, who has voiced support for Israel's devastating assault on Gaza.
"Uncommitted" campaigns won 11 Democratic National Convention (DNC) delegates in Minnesota and two in both Michigan and Washington state.
"Biden is risking his second term and our democracy by continuing to support the kind of violence and cruelty that is being perpetrated in Gaza right now," Faheem Khan, president of the American Muslim Advancement Council and a lead organizer of Uncommitted WA, said earlier this week.
Rosenthal of RootsAction told Common Dreams on Wednesday that the U.S. decision to abstain and allow the U.N. Security Council to pass a cease-fire resolution earlier this week was "a step in the right direction, and a clear indication that domestic pressure from campaigns like Listen to Michigan and other uncommitted voting efforts is working."
"However, actual policy towards Israel has changed very little," said Rosenthal. "Biden is still clamoring for more military aid to be sent, and the U.S. still largely supports Israel's line, i.e., that military operations in Gaza are solely aimed at rooting out Hamas. What is manifestly obvious to the rest of the world, that Israel is committed to the wanton destruction of the Gaza Strip, is somehow escaping the administration's notice."
"President Biden should decide quickly whether he wants to continue to uphold policy that is increasingly associated with the opposition party," Rosenthal added.
"As more states have adopted legalization, public support for this policy has risen dramatically," said one campaigner. "Voters prefer legalization and regulation over the failed policy of marijuana prohibition."
A record 7 in 10 voting-age Americans think marijuana should be legal, according to Gallup polling published Wednesday, a day after voters in Ohio made it the 24th state to legalize adult recreational use of the plant.
After holding steady at 68% for three straight years, Gallup found that support for legalization rose to 70%, with 29% of respondents saying cannabis should not be legal and 1% undecided. That's a 12% increase in support from 2013 levels and a 36% rise from 2003. In 1969, when Gallup first asked Americans if marijuana should be legal, only 12% said "yes."
"There's no 'buyer's remorse' among the public when it comes to legalizing cannabis," Paul Armentano, deputy director at the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), said in a statement. "As more states have adopted legalization, public support for this policy has risen dramatically. That's because these policies are largely working as intended and because voters prefer legalization and regulation over the failed policy of marijuana prohibition."
According to Gallup:
For the second straight year, majority support for legalization is found among all major subgroups, including by age, political party, and ideology. Self-identified conservatives were the last major subgroup to express majority support, reaching 51% in 2022. Republicans first gave marijuana majority-level backing in 2017.
As of today, support for legal marijuana use is highest among self-identified liberals (91%) and Democrats (87%) and lowest among conservatives (52%) and Republicans (55%). Support is inversely correlated with age, reaching 79% among 18- to 34-year-olds. However, even among the oldest age group, nearly two-thirds (64%) are in favor.
This widespread support for legal marijuana was evident on Tuesday as nearly 57% of voters in Ohio—a state that voted for former President Donald Trump in the last two elections and has a Republican governor—approved the legalization and regulation of marijuana for people age 21 and older, who are also allowed to grow up to six cannabis plants per person and 12 plants per residence. The measure imposes a 10% tax on cannabis sales.
"Marijuana is no longer a controversial issue," Tom Haren, spokesperson for the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, toldMarijuana Moment. "Ohioans demonstrated this by passing State Issue 2 in a landslide."
Marijuana Policy Project interim executive director Matthew Schweich told MJBizDaily that the Ohio vote "shows that a cannabis legalization campaign can win anytime and anywhere."
"To achieve victory in a nonpresidential year in a red state shows just how strong public support for legalization has become," he added.
The rise in support for legal marijuana parallels "the rise in Americans' self-reported use of the drug," Gallup said, citing a July survey. "The percentage saying they personally smoke marijuana has risen 10 points to 17% since 2013, and the percentage who have ever tried it has increased 12 points to 50%."
Despite state-level gains—only 10 states have not legalized marijuana for recreational or medical use—cannabis remains strictly prohibited at the federal level, where the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) lists the plant as a Schedule I controlled substance.
Schedule I drugs, the DEA explains, have "no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse," and in addition to cannabis include heroin, LSD, MDMA, and peyote. Far more dangerous substances than marijuana—including cocaine, methamphetamine, and fentanyl—are classified as Schedule II.
After granting a mass pardon last year to U.S. citizens and permanent residents convicted of simple federal marijuana possession, President Joe Biden ordered Attorney General Merrick Garland and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to initiate a review which resulted in an August recommendation by HHS to reclassify cannabis as Schedule III. Such a move would place the plant in the same category as codeine, ketamine, testosterone, and anabolic steroids.
"Just as it is intellectually dishonest to categorize cannabis in the same placement as heroin, it is equally disingenuous to treat cannabis in the same manner as anabolic steroids," Armentano said at the time. "The majority of Americans believe that cannabis ought to be legal and that its hazards to health are less significant than those associated with federally descheduled substances like alcohol and tobacco."
"Like those latter substances, we have long argued the cannabis plant should be removed from the Controlled Substances Act altogether," he added, "thereby proving state governments—rather than the federal government—the ability to regulate marijuana in the manner they see fit without violating federal law."
In the Democrat-controlled U.S. Senate, the bipartisan Secure and Fair Enforcement Regulation (SAFER) Banking Act—which would legally protect banks and credit unions that serve cannabis businesses—was approved by the Banking Committee in September.
Last week, a bipartisan group of U.S. House lawmakers reintroduced H.B. 6028, the States Reform Act, legislation led by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) that would remove cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act, facilitate the expungement of certain marijuana-related offenses, and provide regulatory oversight for state-legal marijuana markets.
However, Republicans control the lower chamber, and new House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is a Christian fundamentalist who opposes marijuana on religious grounds. In recent years, Johnson has voted against legislation that would end federal prohibition, allow banks to work with state-legal cannabis businesses, and fund medical marijuana research.