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As Economic Indicators Point to Recession, Trump Moves to Hide Key Data From Public
"Unfortunately tossing a scarf over the GDP numbers doesn't change the fact that their policies have us careening toward a downturn."
Mar 21, 2025
All signs are pointing to a coming recession as U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on close trading partners, oversees mass firings of civil servants, and pushes for cuts to public services—but by firing economists, advisers, and other experts tasked with advising federal agencies on economic shifts, the administration is working to ensure that the government and the public can't read those signs.
As Politicoreported Friday, experts serving on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Technical Advisory Committee were informed this week that they were no longer needed, leaving the BLS without a panel that has long advised the Labor Department on how economic changes can impact data collection.
A page for the committee was removed from the Labor Department's website, along with one that had information about the Data Users Advisory Committee, which has advised on how businesses and policymakers can use the agency's economic reports.
"It would be a bad sign for a software company to cancel all beta testing if you expect to keep making better software," Michael Madowitz, an economist at the Roosevelt Institute who served on the data users committee, told Politico. "This feels like the same sort of thing."
The dismissal of the advisers follows the disbanding by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick of another advisory board that has worked for years to ensure the government produces accurate data on economic indicators—the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC), which worked under the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"If laying off tens or hundreds of thousands of federal workers is going to drag down macroeconomic indicators in ways that are unhelpful to them, they're apparently quite willing to just rewrite definitions so they can insulate themselves to the extent possible from the fallout."
"Reduced transparency in official statistics is perhaps the most troubling aspect of disbanding FESAC," wrote Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, at Bloomberg on March 11. "Cutting off agency staff from external advisers creates an environment where political interference could occur much more easily—and go undetected. With political officials such as Lutnick arguing publicly that GDP should exclude government spending, it is especially important to have external, independent experts."
On Wednesday, the Federal Housing Finance Authority also placed workers who helped compile its home price index on administrative leave.
The dismantling of much of the federal government's data analysis apparatus comes amid the illegal firing of the two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission just after one called on FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson to take 10 steps to lower prices for U.S. consumers.
"This administration wants to write its own narrative," Stephanie Kelton, a professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University, toldThe Nation after the disbanding of FESAC. "If laying off tens or hundreds of thousands of federal workers is going to drag down macroeconomic indicators in ways that are unhelpful to them, they're apparently quite willing to just rewrite definitions so they can insulate themselves to the extent possible from the fallout."
The latest advisory committee firings this week came as the Federal Reserve projected higher unemployment, faster inflation, and slower growth—or "stagflation." Economic growth this year was projected to be 2.1% in the last weeks of former President Joe Biden's administration; the Fed now expects 1.7% growth, as well as the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%.
Other negative economic indicators include the largest manufacturing decline in nearly two years, according to the New York Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Index, and declining consumer confidence, with bars and restaurants reporting their largest sales decline last month since February 2023.
Members of Trump's own administration are increasingly admitting that a recession could be in the near future, but as Lindsay Owens, executive director of progressive think tank Groundwork Collaborative, said Friday, "the Trump administration is testing whether you can prevent a recession with a disappearing act."
"Unfortunately tossing a scarf over the GDP numbers doesn't change the fact that their policies have us careening toward a downturn," said Owens. "The fact that they are ramping up their obfuscation tactics confirms it."
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Economist Says Fed Warning Shows Trump Driving US Economy 'Toward Disaster'
"Launching chaotic trade wars with our allies and gutting Social Security, Medicaid, and other vital programs in order to fund tax breaks for his billionaire donors isn't making life more affordable for working-class families."
Mar 19, 2025
A former Obama administration economic adviser said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve's forecast of increased unemployment, accelerating inflation, and slower growth driven by President Donald Trump's economic policies could portend a return of the "stagflation" that plagued the nation in the 1970s.
The Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets U.S. monetary policy, downgraded its economic outlook for 2025 from an initial projection of 2.1% growth to 1.7%. FOMC also revised its inflation forecast upward from 2.5% to 2.8%.
While FOMC said that "recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace," the committee noted that "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased."
Fears of an economic slowdown or even a recession have increased dramatically since Trump took office and imposed tariffs on some of the nation's biggest trade partners while moving to gut critical social programs in order to fund a $4.5 trillion tax cut that will overwhelmingly benefit wealthy Americans.
"Inflation has started to move up now. We think partly in response to tariffs and there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a Wednesday news conference, at which he said interest rates will remain unchanged. "The survey data [of] both household and businesses show significant large rising uncertainty and significant concerns about downside risks."
The economic justice group Groundwork Collaborative said the FOMC projections show that "Trump is steering our economy toward disaster," while warning of the possible return of stagflation, a combination of low or negative economic growth and inflation.
Alex Jacquez, the chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative and a former adviser at the White House National Economic Council during the Obama administration, said in a statement that "the Federal Reserve's projections confirm what millions of Americans are already thinking: President Trump is steering our economy toward disaster."
"Voters elected President Trump to lower the cost of living, and instead, they continue to be saddled with persistently high inflation and interest rates," Jacquez continued. "Launching chaotic trade wars with our allies and gutting Social Security, Medicaid, and other vital programs in order to fund tax breaks for his billionaire donors isn't making life more affordable for working-class families. It is, however, a perfect recipe for stagflation."
Trump's economic policies—which some observers believe could be designed to deliberately tank the economy so that the ultrawealthy can buy up assets at deep discounts—have sent consumer confidence plummeting. Meanwhile, recent polls have revealed that a majority of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and inflation.
The latest FOMC forecast came as the world braces for yet another escalation of Trump's trade war, with the president threatening to implement worldwide reciprocal tariffs starting April 2.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said Monday that Trump's trade war is likely to slow economic growth in the United States and around the world.
"The global economy has shown some real resilience, with growth remaining steady and inflation moving downwards," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. "However, some signs of weakness have emerged, driven by heightened policy uncertainty."
"Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs both for production and consumption," Cormann added. "It remains essential to ensure a well-functioning, rules-based international trading system and to keep markets open."
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US Voters Sour on Trump Economic Agenda 'Of, By, and For Billionaires'
"There is no mystery as to why Americans are angry about Republicans' handling of the economy," said one economic justice campaigner.
Mar 18, 2025
Multiple public opinion surveys published in recent days reveal widespread voter disenchantment with U.S. President Donald Trump's economic stewardship amid ever-rising consumer prices, the specter of a recession sparked by what many see as a deliberate attempt to crash the economy for the benefit of the ultrawealthy, and overall policies that favor oligarchs and corporations over everyday Americans.
An NBCpoll published Sunday found that while Trump's overall approval rating of 47% is his highest ever recorded, most respondents—51%—disapproved of how he's started his second term. And while more Americans believe the country is on the right track than at any time since 2004, they are still in the minority, at 44%. A majority of respondents (54%) said the nation is generally heading in the wrong direction.
The poll also found that 44% of respondents approve of Trump's handling of the economy, while 54% disapprove. Regarding inflation—a key Trump campaign issue—just 42% of respondents said they approve of the president's leadership, versus 55% who disapprove.
Meanwhile, the latest data from the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey showed a 22% plunge since last December amid heightened inflation expectations, while a poll published last week by Groundwork Collaborative and Data for Progress found that respondents are most frustrated by grocery price increases, healthcare costs, and housing prices.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Food Price Outlook, overall food prices are projected to rise 3.4% in 2025, with the cost of some staples expected to soar much higher. For example, eggs prices are projected to skyrocket by a staggering 41%—and possibly as much as nearly 75%.
"Today's shocking consumer sentiment numbers are a referendum on the president's mishandling of the economy, just 54 days into office," Groundwork Collaborative policy and advocacy chief Alex Jacquez said in response to the University of Michigan poll. "Working families are longing for stability as their grocery bills and rent payments continue to climb, but Trump's chaotic approach to the economy has them feeling more uncertain than ever."
"Consumers are rightly terrified about what lies ahead," Jacquez added. "The administration is more focused on gutting Social Security to pay for tax giveaways to billionaires and corporations than they are making life more affordable for working families."
Kobie Christian, spokesperson for the economic justice group Unrig Our Economy, said Tuesday that "there is no mystery as to why Americans are angry about Republicans' handling of the economy."
"Prices are continuing to rise. Republican-backed tariffs are threatening to raise costs even more, torching Americans' 401(pk)s, and pushing us toward a recession," Christian continued. "Meanwhile, Elon Musk's [Department of Government Efficiency] is coming after Social Security and other vital programs on which millions of Americans rely, and Republicans in Congress are enabling it—all to pay for more tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires."
"It could not be clearer that President Trump and Republicans in Congress are trying to reshape our government to be of, by, and for billionaires," Christian added. "Working people across the country are already making their voices heard during House recess by pushing back against these destructive policies and urging congressional Republicans to represent working families, veterans, and seniors, not big donors or special interests."
Other recent polls—including the National Federation of Independent Business' Optimism Index—show similar declines in confidence in Trump's policies and performance.
Then there's the stock market, essentially a gauge of investor confidence, which has seen its worst performance over a president's first 50 days since 2009, during the Great Recession. Many critics have openly asked whether the wrecking-ball approach of Trump and Musk is a deliberate bid to tank the economy so the rich can buy up assets at deep discounts.
It's not just critics—last week, Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy voiced concerns about the economy during a White House news conference, asking Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, "You're sure nobody here at the White House shorted the Dow?"
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