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groundwork collaborative
Trump Ends Year on Voters’ Naughty List As Rising Unemployment and Snowballing Prices Crush Holiday Spirit
As 2025 comes to a close, Americans are taking stock of an economy that looks nothing like what Donald Trump promised. Instead of lower prices and stable jobs, working families are staring down the highest unemployment rate in four years, soaring costs, and the looming loss of health care for millions. Trump’s reckless tariffs have cost consumers and businesses $158 billion, leading to layoffs, less spending, and fewer presents under the tree. With prices for essentials still rising and consumer confidence freezing over, it is no surprise that a record number of Americans put Trump’s economic performance on the naughty list this holiday season.
Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez released the following statement:
“This was supposed to be the year Trump lowered prices. Instead, he stuffed America’s stockings with coal. Families are heading into the holidays facing snowballing costs on everything from toys and groceries to health care and utilities, yet Trump continues to call affordability a hoax. As working families yearn for the ghost of economies past, let’s hope the Scrooge in the White House makes a resolution to stop gaslighting Americans and get serious about bringing costs down in the new year.”
This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump’s actions are deeply unpopular, hurting the economy, and harming America’s workers.
Polling and Economic Indicators on Trump’s Handling of the Economy:
- Less than one-third (31%) of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. Net approval of Trump and his handling of the economy specifically have both plummeted throughout the year. It’s no fluke, the polling aggregate below shows that the economy went from being his greatest strength to his biggest liability.
- With job openings shrinking, the labor market is leaving workers stuck. The United States lost 105,000 jobs in October and gained just 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent, with more Americans out of work than any month since October 2021.
- The number of people working part time for economic reasons rose to 5.5 million in November, an increase of about 909,000 since September, as Americans are unable to find full-time employment.
- The manufacturing slump is showing no signs of easing. The S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.8 in December, a 5-month low as inventories continue to pile up, resulting in factories cutting back on input buying for the first time since April. And despite Trump’s promises to bring manufacturing jobs back, 5,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in November, sinking to its lowest level in nearly four years, while transportation and warehousing have lost 78,000 jobs since Trump took office.
- Regionally, the data paints a similar picture. New York State manufacturing sank in December, with the general business conditions index tumbling 23 points to -3.9. Similarly, in the Philadelphia region, general activity fell 9 points to -10.2 in December, marking a third consecutive negative reading with about 62% of the firms reporting that uncertainty was at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter.
- Tariffs are taking billions from the pockets of consumers. Trump’s tariffs have cost American consumers nearly $160 billion since February. The average American family has already paid nearly $1,200 in tariff costs since Trump took office, and will pay another $2,100 on average next year if tariffs remain at the same level.
- Consumers are feeling the pinch, as high prices keep squeezing budgets. U.S. retail and food services sales stalled in October, according to the Commerce Department’s report released this week, as consumers tightened their budgets. Sales were unchanged in October, after a modest 0.1% increase in September.
- Nearly half of U.S. consumers (48%) say they are cutting back on non-essential purchases, and among households earning under $50,000, 65% report that it has been harder to afford holiday gifts this season, according to an AP-NORC poll.
- Inflation continues to pressure American households, with headline and core CPI running around 2.7% and 2.6% year over year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Economists expect the shutdown to have biased these figures downward, masking a likely even higher true pace of inflation.
- 74% of Americans, including 68% of Trump voters, say they would need to see a decline in prices to be convinced that inflation and the costs are no longer a problem.
- Consumers wrapped up the year feeling pessimistic. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is 30% lower this December than a year ago, as affordability remains a major concern for Americans. The Current Economic Conditions Index reached the lowest level on record this December at 50.4, and 63% of consumers still expect unemployment to rise over the next year.
Expert Commentary:
- “At a time when families are being squeezed by the highest grocery costs in a generation, Instacart chose to run AI experiments that are quietly driving prices higher. While the FTC’s investigation is welcome news, it must be followed with meaningful action that ends these exploitative pricing schemes and protects consumers. Instacart must face consequences for their algorithmic price gouging, not just a slap on the wrist.” – Lindsay Owens, Executive Director of Groundwork Collaborative.
- “Everybody’s afraid for their jobs. I’m dead serious […] I talked to homebuilders; they were saying the biggest reason people are not buying homes is that they’re worried about losing their jobs…It’s not about interest rates; price matters, but it’s really like, ‘Am I guaranteed I’m going to be able to make the payment in six months,’ and that’s what people are scared of.” – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at a Yale University CEO Summit.
- “Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and have restricted their hiring in December in accordance with the more challenging business environment. A key concern is rising costs, with inflation jumping sharply to its highest since November 2022, which fed through to one of the steepest increases in selling charges for the past three years. Higher prices are again being widely blamed on tariffs, with an initial impact on manufacturing now increasingly spilling over to services to broaden the affordability problem.” –Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:
- “ […] The data show that the labor market has continued to cool, with labor demand softening more than supply. Job growth has been anemic, and the unemployment rate has moved up steadily in recent months […] In the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey, a measure of the difference between the share of respondents who think jobs are plentiful and the share of those who think jobs are hard to get has declined throughout 2025.“ –John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the New Jersey Bankers Association.
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