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"There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen," said one analyst.
More than 800,000 Lebanese people who have been forced from their homes in southern Lebanon in the last two weeks have little hope of returning soon as the Israeli government on Monday announced its military had begun "limited and targeted ground operations" in and around the strategic southern town of Khiam, a stronghold of Hezbollah.
The ground attacks represent a significant expansion of the Israel Defense Forces' ground operations. On March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in retaliation for the US and Israel's killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel began sending troops into Lebanon to bolster the presence the IDF has had there in five areas since a 2024 ceasefire.
Until now, ground forces have conducted "limited incursions," Axios reported.
Israel has also launched airstrikes in Lebanon, killing at least 850 people—including 107 children and 66 women—since it was joined by the US late last month in abruptly ending diplomatic negotiations and attacking Iran.
The Times of Israel reported that the IDF carried out "massive airstrikes and artillery shelling 'to remove threats'" over the weekend before the 91st "Galilee" Regional Division began raiding the eastern section of southern Lebanon in attacks that the military said killed several Hezbollah operatives.
Israel conducted raids on towns including Burj Qalawiya, Sultyaniya, Chaqra, Qantara, and as-Sawana on Monday, according to Al Jazeera Arabic, with the military saying the 91st Division had "begun limited and targeted ground operations against key Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon."
A major target of the ramped up ground attacks was Khiam, a Hezbollah stronghold that lies at a strategic junction of roads leading to the eastern and western sections of southern Lebanon.
"What Israel has been trying to do is really cut the supply lines and the difficult capabilities of Hezbollah, so it’s unable to bring in more weapons and fighters to areas south of the Litani River," reported Zeina Khodr of Al Jazeera.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that due to what the IDF claimed will be "limited and targeted ground operations," close to a million people who have fled their homes in southern Lebanon "will not return to their homes south of the Litani River until the security of the residents of [northern Israel] is guaranteed.”
While claiming the operation in southern Lebanon will be "limited," Katz also said the operation is intended to resemble Israel's assault on Gaza, which has continued despite a ceasefire that was reached last October, has killed more than 75,000 Palestinians, and has been called a genocide by leading human rights groups and scholars.
Dozens of healthcare workers have been killed in Israeli strikes since the IDF began attacking Lebanon earlier this month; in Gaza, more than 1,500 doctors, nurses, and medics have been killed in October 2023. One attack that killed two paramedics this week in the southern village of Kfarsir was reportedly a "double-tap" strike in which first responders were killed when they arrived to help victims of an initial strike on a building.
The charity group Save the Children on Monday described children "clutching beloved pets and toys as they flee their homes in Lebanon due to the escalating conflict," and said nearly 300,000 children are among those who have been forcibly displaced.
More than 130,000 people are sheltering in overcrowded schools that have been repurposed as refugee shelters, said the group, and families have had to leave their homes without time to gather crucial documents, clothes, or medications.
“Many families were forced to flee in the middle of the night with nothing, and children miss their homes, their villages, their friends, and their schools," said Nora Ingdal, country director for Save the Children Lebanon. "I met a child who told me, ‘I'm not able to play here and I just want to go back to my village as soon as possible.’ One child I met clutched his blue toy car, as it was the only thing he had managed to bring from home."
"Hostilities must end and children must be protected at all costs," said Ingdal. "We know children are always the most impacted in any conflict, and the psychological impacts last long after any conflict ends."
The IDF is reportedly calling up 450,000 reservists to carry out the ground invasion, and the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that a senior Northern Command official told reservists in a briefing that the operation could continue "until Shavuot," a Jewish holiday falling between May 21-23.
"We will stay as long as necessary," the official said.
Lebanese security sources told Reuters Monday that the IDF had effectively taken control of Khiam and were advancing west toward the Litani River, which could cut off parts of southern Lebanon from the rest of the country.
Katz has also threatened to seize territory in the southern area in an effort to uproot Hezbollah.
Geopolitical analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim said Israel appears to be using "coercive diplomacy" and expressing a willingness to hold direct talks with Lebanon in the coming days.
"Israel is applying the Daheyia Doctrine, which uses overwhelming, disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in areas controlled by Hezbollah to deter future attacks," said Ben-Ephraim. "However, they plan to use this increasingly against Lebanese infrastructure to coerce Lebanon into a deal."
"There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen," he said.
US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) emphasized that the expanded ground operation in Lebanon is one of several crises unfolding as a result of President Donald Trump's decision to launch attacks against Iran with Israel.
"A broader, regional war is breaking out," said Murphy. "Trump has no endgame. Iran and its proxies can create chaos indefinitely."
"All of this was totally foreseeable," he added. "Frankly, it’s why previous presidents weren’t so stupid to start a war like this. Trump has lost control of the war. His best course now is to cut his losses and end it. That’s the only way to prevent an even bigger disaster."
"They want civil chaos in this country," said one journalist of Israel's military plans in Lebanon.
The Israeli military on Thursday issued what the Times of Israel described as an "unprecedented" evacuation warning to residents in Beirut's southern suburbs ahead of planned strikes against Hezbollah.
According to the Times of Israel, the warning "covers four major neighborhoods in the southern suburbs" of the Lebanese capital, and represents a marked difference from past evacuation warnings that have typically covered specific locations where Israel intended to launch strikes.
In the warning, Israeli Army spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee told residents of the four neighborhoods to "save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately," and warned that any movement southward toward the Israeli border "may endanger your lives."
Israel has deployed soldiers and conducted airstrikes in Lebanon as its military also joins the US in attacking Iran in an operation they began late last week. The US and Israeli attacks have led to a widening conflict in the region, with the Iran-backed Hezbollah launching missiles at Israel in retaliation.
Maha Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said in a Thursday social media post that the Israeli warning has caused "total panic across the city," as the area being targeted by Israel is home to "at least a half million people."
Lebansese-Australian journalist Rania Abouzeid similarly described "widespread panic" across Beirut in the wake of the order.
"Traffic is choked, people rushing to leave and head north," Abouzeid wrote. "Drones in the air. WhatsApp messages urging people to crack windows open to avoid shattering from expected blasts."
Ariel Oseran, senior Middle East correspondent for i24News English, posted video on social media showing packed streets filled with cars of people trying to escape the impending Israeli attack.
Residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs seen fleeing shortly after the IDF issued an evacuation warning for the entire area. https://t.co/V34p1mhCW6 pic.twitter.com/LCQfOxO59J
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 5, 2026
Mohamad Safa, executive director of PVA Patriotic Vision, an international multilateral organization with special consultative status at the United Nations Economic and Social Council, said that the evacuation order was making a dangerous situation on the ground in Lebanon even worse.
"Our teams have been on the ground assisting [internally displaced peoples] since day one," he wrote. "The humanitarian situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse. Shelters are overcrowded, and there are no apartments available for rent. Emergency relief is insufficient. People are sleeping on the ground without blankets or mattresses in the bitter cold."
Journalist Rania Khalek of BreakThrough News said that Israel "is trying to empty out huge portions of the country," and she speculated that it was being done in a way to maximize chaos on the ground.
"The Israelis are telling Lebanese they are displacing from Shia neighborhoods to take roads to what will inevitably land them in Christian and Sunni areas," she wrote. "They want civil chaos in this country."
Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) said that his agency "has opened emergency shelters for displaced people—Palestine refugees, Lebanese, and Syrians alike" in the wake of Israel's evacuation warning.
Lazzarini also emphasized that "Lebanon needs peace, not more destruction, displacement, and death."
As it pushes further into Lebanon, Israel ordered around 200,000 people living south of the Litani River to "immediately" flee.
Israel ordered residents in southern Lebanon to "immediately" leave their homes as it advanced troops further into the country on Wednesday, prompting "serious concern" from the United Nations as its assault on the country ramps up.
"Residents of southern Lebanon—you must move immediately to areas north of the Litani River," Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted in Arabic on X as Israel escalated a campaign of airstrikes and moved troops into several villages.
The region south of the Litani River spans hundreds of square kilometers and makes up about 9% of Lebanon's total territory, according to the Associated Press.
Around 200,000 people live in the area south of the river, which has served as the beginning of a buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2006 as part of United Nations Resolution 1701.
On Monday, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "have approved for the military to advance and seize additional controlling areas in Lebanon and to defend the border settlements from there."
According to Nora Ingdal, Save the Children’s Country Director for Lebanon, evacuation orders given by Israel as it entered villages in the past three days have created a situation of "pure chaos" for civilians forced to flee their homes.
Lebanon's Ministry of Social Affairs reported that about 58,000 people, including an estimated 16,000 children, had already been displaced as of Tuesday.
"Our team is hearing cases of children across Lebanon sleeping in cars, on cold pavements, and in partially damaged classrooms with cracks in the walls, while parents are sitting on the side of the streets crying, exhausted from little sleep after being unable to get into proper shelters with their children," Ingdal said.
Sana Kawtharani, a community health educator for Doctors Without Borders, described the impossible choice that over 12,000 people had to make after being ordered to leave the town of Sarafand on Tuesday, after having sought shelter there earlier.
"We know how hard it is to leave our home, our people, our villages, and our memories," Kawtharani said. "Around us in the neighborhood, some were forced to leave because they have children and elderly who are terrified by the sound of Israeli shelling."
"They carried what they could and left in cars, not knowing where they were going," she said. "There are children, the elderly, and the sick stuck on the road in very harsh conditions."
Israeli attacks in Lebanon since 2023 have killed more than 4,000 people and injured more than 16,000, according to the Lebanese health ministry, which says most of the victims have been civilians. More than 370 have been killed since a ceasefire in November 2024.
"This war began 15 months ago, and until today, it hasn't stopped," Kawtharani said. "Every day there is shelling, despite everything we hear about a ceasefire, but this has not been implemented on the ground."
Israel’s evacuation order for all of southern Lebanon came following an intensification of airstrikes overnight around Beirut the previous evening, which killed at least 12 people according to state media.
On Tuesday, Israel also reportedly carried out another "double-tap" strike in the Tyre district of southern Lebanon, killing three paramedics with the World Health Organization (WHO) and injuring six more who were in the process of helping others wounded in a previous strike.
Though Lebanon was already being struck by Israel on a near-daily basis despite the 2024 ceasefire, hostilities exploded over the weekend following Israel and the United States' attack on Iran, sparking retaliatory strikes on Israel from the Iranian-aligned militia Hezbollah.
According to Middle East Eye, Israel had authorized a barrage of strikes on Lebanon even before the first retaliatory rockets and drones were fired by Hezbollah following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday.
Israel has not reported any deaths from Hezbollah's attacks, though two soldiers sustained moderate injuries on Wednesday from anti-tank fire in southern Lebanon.
According to Lebanese authorities, Israeli strikes on dozens of sites across the country have killed at least 72 people and wounded 437 as of Wednesday.
Lebanese media reported on Wednesday that Israeli troops have pushed into the town of Khiam, which is roughly six kilometers from Israel’s border, marking their furthest advance into the country since the war broke out in 2024.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the peacekeeping force that has operated in southern Lebanon for nearly 50 years, said on Wednesday that it had “serious concern” about Israel’s order “demanding evacuation of the civilian population from UNIFIL’s area of operations to north of the Litani River.”
UNIFIL said on Wednesday that “peacekeepers observed today several [Israel Defense Forces] movements and military activities, including near El Khiam, Beit Lif, Yaroun, Houla, Kfar Kila, Kherbeh, and Kfar Shouba. All of these are happening while Israeli airstrikes and other air activities continue.”
It said these actions "not only violate Resolution 1701, but also Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity."