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Spoiler Alert in the Iran-US Peace Process
Spoilers often undermine fragile peace processes to disastrous effect, and several are currently attempting to derail the Islamabad memorandum of understanding; managing them is an important challenge.
Jun 29, 2026
In a seminal article, entitled “Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes,” Stephen Stedman writes that “peacemaking is a risky business.” The greatest source of risk “comes from spoilers—leaders and parties who believe that peace emerging from negotiations threatens their power, worldview, and interests, and use violence to undermine attempts to achieve it.”
Spoilers can be inside or outside a peace process. Those inside have signed an agreement but fail to fulfill key obligations; those outside are either excluded from it or have excluded themselves. In terms of managing spoilers, it is important to determine why a particular party is refusing to honor a peace agreement.
Spoilers are already causing problems for the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the US announced on June 14, after weeks of Pakistani mediators trading proposals back and forth between the parties. The 14-point MOU was officially signed by President Donald Trump on June 17 in Versailles and by President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran the next day.
The Process of the Negotiations Following the Signing of the MOU
To develop the MOU into a permanent peace agreement, face-to-face negotiations were scheduled for June 19 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland under the auspices of Pakistani and Qatari mediators. But because heavy fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah was violating the first clause of the MOU, which called for the termination of military operations “including in Lebanon,” the Iranians declared that they would not attend and threatened to reclose the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President JD Vance, who was to lead the US delegation, also canceled his flight to Switzerland.
Although the negotiations were successful, several parties—Israel, Hezbollah, Trump, and hardliners in Iran—almost derailed the process and are still attempting to do so.
Nonetheless, on June 20, after Iranian state TV announced that Iran’s delegation, led by the Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, had arrived in Switzerland, Vance departed the US to join Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had traveled there earlier.
The talks, dubbed the Lake Lucerne Summit, began on the morning of June 21 with separate meetings between the leaders of each delegation with the mediators, followed by quadrilateral talks in the afternoon between the two parties and two mediators.
Vance presented a promising opening statement, saying: “Never before has the Iranian and American leadership met at such a high level... What the President has asked us to do is turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship with the people of Iran, and to extend an outstretched hand that says to the people of Iran that if your leadership is willing to give up being a driver of regional instability, if they are willing to give up nuclear weapons ambitions for the long term, then the United States is willing to fundamentally transform our relationship.”
But 80 minutes later, the Iranians got word that Trump (apparently annoyed by the threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz) told Fox News in a phone call that unless the strait remained open, the negotiators talking to Vance will “never make it back to their country—in fact, they will have no f**king country to return to at all.”
In response, the Iranian delegation protested to the mediators, saying this was an unacceptable threat to their personal safety and then staged a walkout. Their absence was apparently temporary, because Vance, describing the talks as “messy,” later said: “Yes, they did threaten to walk out... but we were negotiating well past one in the morning... so they didn’t [permanently] walk out.” In all, there were about 18 hours of intensive talks and consultations.
The Outcome and Substance of the Negotiations
The talks produced a road map for a final deal within 60 days and created a High-Level Committee for Political Oversight to manage the process and coordinate the three working groups who will report to the committee weekly: a Nuclear Working Group, a Sanctions Tracking Group, and a Monitoring and Dispute-Resolution Group.
Two crisis management mechanisms were also agreed: a Strait of Hormuz Secure Communication Channel (i.e., a hotline) to provide communication links between maritime security forces to “avoid incidents and miscommunication” and guarantee safe passage for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; and a Lebanon De-Confliction Cell to prevent further military escalation and ensure compliance with the cessation of hostilities.
In the end, the talks were more successful than the first round in April in Islamabad. Vance called them “a good foundation;” Araghchi said the mediators delivered “major progress.” A joint statement by the mediators described “encouraging progress” and cited a “positive and constructive atmosphere.” The Swiss Foreign Ministry also welcomed “constructive progress.” Technical talks between the working groups began the next day.
Spoiler Issues
Although the negotiations were successful, several parties—Israel, Hezbollah, Trump, and hardliners in Iran—almost derailed the process and are still attempting to do so.
The success of the process appears to be due to the mediators employing “the departing train strategy, which implies that the peace process is a train leaving the station at a preordained time: Once set in motion, anyone not on board will be left behind.” It is a determination that the peace process will go irrevocably forward regardless of spoiling efforts. Other strategies that Stedman proposes for managing spoilers include: inducement, socialization, deterrence-coercion, and withdrawal.
Although a comprehensive accounting of each spoiler’s motivation and strategies for dealing with them exceed the scope of this article, some general points can be made.
Israel and Hezbollah
Long-term enemies, Israel and Hezbollah, reengaged in fighting on March 2, when Hezbollah launched missiles against Israel to protest Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination, followed by intense hostilities between them. Since the first clause of the MOU calls for the termination of military operations, including in Lebanon, this presents a dilemma, since both Israel and Hezbollah were outside the US-Iranian peace process and didn’t agree. Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated that since it isn’t a party to the MOU, Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon.
In response, the US established a separate mediation process between Israel and Lebanon (with Hezbollah again outside the process) which agreed to ceasefires of varying lengths, subsequently violated by both Israel and Hezbollah. More recently, Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a lasting peace and security deal, whereby the Lebanese Armed Forces would gradually assume control over all Lebanese territory as Hezbollah is disarmed; in parallel, Israeli forces would engage in a staged withdrawal. Hezbollah, however, rejects this and says that it will not disarm until Israel withdraws totally.
When peace processes are scuttled by spoilers and war resumes, the results are often catastrophic, with the casualties being infinitely higher than those of the original conflict.
Netanyahu, his government, and much of the Israeli public are disappointed with the MOU since it doesn’t address many of their war aims, e.g., regime change, Iran’s ballistic missile program, and its support for proxies. They also oppose sanctions relief and other economic benefits.
Both Israel and Hezbollah fit the description of “total spoilers,” who are often “led by individuals who see the world in all-or-nothing terms” and are opposed to compromise. “Any commitment to peace by a total spoiler tends to be tactical—a move to gain advantage in a struggle to the death.”
The “departing train strategy,” used by the mediators at the Lake Lucerne Summit, is a good way to manage total spoilers. Another effective approach is for the spoiler’s patron to warn the spoiler of dire implications if it escalates attacks, which apparently Trump has done, much to Netanyahu’s annoyance.
It has also been argued that Hezbollah might moderate its actions for now by inducement, e.g., the promise of renewed assistance from Iran if economic benefits accrue from the peace process, but if this allows it to rearm later, that would merely postpone the problem.
Trump
Trump is, of course, inside the peace process and probably fits the description of a “greedy spoiler,” i.e., one who “holds goals that expand or contract based on calculations of cost and risk. A greedy spoiler may have limited goals that expand when faced with low costs and risks; alternatively, it may have total goals that contract when faced with high costs and risks.”
Although Trump reportedly wants out of the war, his firm belief that any provocation must be met with a response of greater intensity inevitably causes conflict escalation. When four days after the Lake Lucerne Summit, Iranian hardliners attacked a vessel trying to exit the strait, Trump ordered bombing of Iranian missile and drone sites.
Hardliners in Iran
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has given his conditional approval to the MOU, with the qualification that he will not accept excessive demands by the US. He also praised the efforts of the Iranian negotiating team, which is seen as an attempt to silence opposition from hardliners. As well, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership, the Supreme National Security Council, and some members of parliament support it.
The hardline Paydari Front, however, which rejects engagement with the West and considers itself the guardian of revolutionary values, opposes it. There are also hardline members within the IRGC. As well, segments of the population oppose the MOU and demonstrations broke out when it was signed, with calls for death to the negotiating team.
The recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz are an example of how this opposition can manifest itself. Like Trump, IRGC hardliners believe that every provocation must be met with a greater response, which accounts for their recent attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, following Trump’s bombing. These hardliners were also outside the peace process and fit the typology of total spoilers.
Conclusion
The four spoilers mentioned above are currently presenting significant challenges to the MOU and must be managed if the peace process is to go forward.
One problem is that the lack of specificity in the MOU allows for different interpretations that spoilers can exploit to disrupt the process. This relates to how the MOU was negotiated, i.e., through the long-distance exchange of each party’s preferred positions, as opposed to the mediators sitting with the parties to explore their underlying interests before developing options. The current dispute is apparently related to Iranian interests to have control of how clearing of the strait takes place, i.e., with vessels exiting on the Iranian side, rather than the Omani side, which the US is encouraging. If parties’ interests with regard to this issue had been thoroughly explored during negotiations, a more specific formulation could have been included which might have avoided this problem.
In order to keep the peace process on track, the international community needs to be aware of the role of spoilers and do everything in its power to manage any disruptions.
Another issue is the inclusion of conditions in the agreement (e.g., the termination of military operations in Lebanon) that must be fulfilled by parties who are outside the process and don’t agree (notably, Israel and Hezbollah). Attempts to overcome this through US mediation between Israel and Lebanon, but with Hezbollah still outside the process, are not addressing the interests of one of the major parties and are thus stalemated.
It also appears that the procedural mechanisms established at the Lake Lucerne Summit to deal with such problems are not being utilized. A Strait of Hormuz Secure Communication Channel is apparently non-operational. Presumably, the new Monitoring and Dispute-Resolution Group could also be engaged. Hopefully, the mediators will quickly assist the parties in resolving the current dispute and ensure that these mechanisms become operational.
Of particular concern, is Stedman’s warning that history has shown that when peace processes are scuttled by spoilers and war resumes, the results are often catastrophic, with the casualties being infinitely higher than those of the original conflict. Rwanda offers a horrifying example.
Such an ominous possibility is foreshadowed by Trump’s recent post on Truth Social: “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.”
In order to keep the peace process on track, the international community needs to be aware of the role of spoilers and do everything in its power to manage any disruptions before the conflict escalates again, perhaps tragically.
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'Psychopath' Ben-Gvir Slammed for Demand That 'All Lebanon Must Burn'
Ben-Gvir's invocation of mass slaughter came as the US is trying to negotiate an end to President Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran.
Jun 19, 2026
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir drew widespread condemnation on Friday when he declared that "all Lebanon must burn" shortly after four Israeli soldiers were killed in a fight with Hezbollah.
In a social media post, Ben-Gvir said that Israel should retaliate for the deaths of the soldiers with a scorched-earth military campaign aimed at killing large numbers of Lebanese people.
"For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep," the far-right Israeli Cabinet member wrote. "Enough with the ping-pong. In the Middle East, you don’t win with measured responses and restraint—you need to go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror."
Ben-Gvir also took a subtle shot at the Trump administration, which has called for Israel to cease its military operations in Lebanon so that the US and Iran can negotiate an end to the illegal war of choice President Donald Trump launched earlier this year.
"With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit," he wrote. "All of Lebanon must burn."
Ben-Gvir's demands for mass slaughter were widely condemned as the ravings of a genocidal maniac.
"You are a psychopath and one of the greatest threats to the security of Israel and of Jewish people around the world," journalist Yashar Ali wrote in response to Ben-Gvir. "You belong in a psychiatric institution, not in a government role."
Humza Yousaf, former first minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party, argued that Ben-Gvir's ravings should end any question about the nature of Israel's current government.
"For those who continue to deny Israel has any intention of committing genocide then read this tweet from a minister at the heart of the Israeli government," Yousaf wrote. "He belongs in the Hague, convicted and in a jail cell."
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that Ben-Gvir's post should make Western nations reconsider which nation is the largest obstacle to achieving peace in the Middle East.
"While regional states are intrinsically involved in efforts to bring about peace in the region," Parsi noted, "this Israeli cabinet minister tweets that 'All of Lebanon must burn!' And he repeats that call twice in the post. When will the West ask the question that never gets asked: How is the rest of the region supposed to live in peace and security next to a state that behaves like this?"
British journalist Owen Jones remarked that, in calling for mass killing in Lebanon, Ben-Gvir "sounds like a Nazi."
"If this wasn't Israel," Jones added, "everybody would say he sounds like a Nazi."
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Lebanese Cities Face ‘Direct Threat of Israeli Occupation’ as IDF Orders 200,000 People to Evacuate
"Our villages have been systematically razed over these past months, and now the cities themselves are in the crosshairs," said one Lebanese journalist.
May 27, 2026
The Israel Defense Forces' intensified its bombardment of the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on Wednesday just two hours after ordering the evacuation of 200,000 area residents, further violating a US-brokered ceasefire and stoking fears of Israeli occupation and even colonization.
The IDF ordered the entire city of Tyre and surrounding areas, including Palestinian refugee camps, to immediately flee north of the Zahrani River. Israeli bombing of Tyre has caused considerable damage to the UNESCO World Heritage site and one of the world's oldest continuously inhabited cities.
"Our villages have been systematically razed over these past months, and now the cities themselves are in the crosshairs," Lebanese journalist Ali Hashem said on X.
IDF Arabic language spokesperson Avichay Adraee said on X Wednesday that "in light of the terrorist Hezbollah party's violation of the ceasefire agreement and targeting of Israeli territory, the Israel Defense Forces are compelled to act forcefully against it."
While Hezbollah has launched drones, rockets, and attacks against Israeli troops, the militant resistance group says they are responses to Israeli violations of the April 16 ceasefire. IDF attacks have killed more than 700 Lebanese, including many women and children, since the truce took effect, despite US President Donald Trump telling Israel that such strikes are "PROHIBITED."
"The Israel Defense Forces do not intend to harm you," Adraee's message continued. "Your presence near Hezbollah elements, their facilities, or their combat means puts your lives at risk. Any building used by Hezbollah for military purposes may be subject to targeting."
"To ensure your safety, evacuate your homes immediately and move north beyond the Zahrani River," the order warns. "Be advised—any movement south of the Zahrani River may put your lives at risk."
Adraee's warning came as Lebanese communities reeled under intensified airstrikes that have killed or wounded scores of people across southern Lebanon since Tuesday.
Since Israel renewed its attacks on Lebanon in March at the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, more than 3,200 Lebanese have been killed—including hundreds of women and children—nearly 10,000 more have been wounded, and over 1 million people have been forcibly displaced, according to officials. As in Gaza, Israeli forces have been accused of deliberately targeting Lebanon's healthcare infrastructure, including first responders, as well as journalists.
Israeli forces also killed and wounded more than 20,000 Lebanese during 2023-25 attacks carried out during the war on Gaza after Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian resistance.
Israel has been accused of ethnic cleansing as its forces raze entire villages in southern Lebanon, drawing comparisons to Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, which has left more than 250,000 Palestinians dead, maimed, or missing, and around 2 million people forcibly displaced, starved, or sickened.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said in March that Lebanese people displaced north of the Litani River would not be allowed to return to their homes—many of which have been looted by IDF troops—until people living in northern Israel are secure from Hezbollah rocket and drone threats.
The IDF has also extended its so-called "Yellow Line" in Lebanon, which it designated largely along the Litani River, in an effort to counter Hezbollah drone attacks that have killed or wounded at least scores of Israeli invaders.
Some observers fear another prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, as happened for 18 years late last century. IDF troops briefly occupied the capital city of Beirut in 1982 and did not withdraw from southern Lebanon until 2000.
Others fear even worse, including the possible Israeli colonization of parts of Lebanon in pursuit of realizing a “Greater Israel” stretching from the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates in Iraq, land many religious Jews believe was promised to them by their deity figure.
Earlier this month, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir revealed the existence of a "settlement plan" for southern Lebanon. This, after Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich asserted that "the Litani must be our new border."
Such Israeli expansion would likely include the permanent ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, similar to the 1947-49 forced expulsion of Palestinians during the Nakba, or "catastrophe," a period of terrorist attacks, massacres, and death marches perpetrated by Jewish militias during the establishment of the modern state of Israel.
The International Criminal Court is believed to be seeking the arrest of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in connection with the ethnic cleansing and settler colonization of the illegally occupied West Bank. The Hague-based tribunal has already issued warrants for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
While negotiators from the United States, Iran, and mediating nations seek to achieve a lasting halt to hostilities in the Middle East, Israeli leaders have been actively working against peace. Addressing the prospect of a peace agreement, Ben-Gvir vowed during a Tuesday press briefing that "we will not allow this to happen."
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To Stop Failing in the Middle East, the US Must Consider the Needs of Arab People
US policies in the region are headed toward disaster—not only for the US and its stated goals, but also, and more importantly, for the people who live there.
May 18, 2026
One reason why US policy in the Middle East has been so problematic is because policymakers refuse to consider its impact on the needs of Arab people. With Israel, it’s a different story. Overattentiveness to Israeli concerns coupled with the lack of sensitivity to what Arabs think about our actions has led to deep fractures between Arabs and the US and within the Arab World.
Since 2000, we’ve conducted over 50 multination opinion polls on a variety of topics. We explored Arab attitudes toward other Arabs, the US, China, Russia, Iran, and Israel. We also examined attitudes toward conflicts in the region.
It’s been over two years since we’ve polled across the Arab World, but based on what we saw developing during our two and a half decades of work, it’s clear that US policies are headed toward disaster—not only for the US and its stated goals, but also, and more importantly, for the Arab people.
What follows are some observations based on the trend lines we have culled from our surveys:
- After 9/11, President George W. Bush famously claimed, “They hate us because they hate our values.” Our 2002 polling found the opposite: Arabs liked American people, products, education, and values, but strongly disliked US policies toward the Arab world—especially regarding Palestinians. As I said during a congressional hearing on my polling: “Arabs like us and our values—what they resent is that we don’t apply those values to them.”
Bush’s Iraq war and neglect of Palestinians further lowered US ratings. They rose with President Barack Obama’s promise of change but fell when he didn’t deliver on them. Attitudes further plummeted with President Donald Trump’s pro-Israel, anti-Muslim policies.
By late 2023, our last multination poll showed President Joe Biden’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza generating even stronger negatives. To make matters worse, the complications created by President Trump’s US-Israel attacks on Iran, coupled with his assault on the very aspects of America that were respected worldwide—our universities, press freedom, and immigration policy—make it likely that Arabs are now finding it difficult to even like American values.
- Over the years, we have often polled on favorable and unfavorable attitudes toward China and the US. During this time, while opinions toward the US ebbed and flowed, attitudes toward China remained steady. By the end of 2023, for the first time, China’s ratings were competitive with those of the US in areas that had previously been the US’s strong suits—education and doing business. And in several Arab countries, China was seen as a more reliable partner than the US.
- Arab attitudes toward Iran have followed a consistent pattern. When Iran was perceived to be under attack for resisting the US and the West, it found a strong base of support among many Arabs. But when Iran directly meddled in Arab countries, opinion turned against it. And when its ally Hezbollah turned its weapons against its domestic Lebanese opponents and joined Iran in direct involvement in Syria’s civil war, majorities in most Arab countries turned against Iran.
Following this trajectory, one can reasonably assume that the US-Israel attacks on Iran coupled with Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Syria, and Israel’s boasts of becoming the regional power that was “defending Western civilization against barbarism,” won Iran some sympathy in Arab public opinion. The same might be true for the recent US-Israel attacks on Iran, except that instead of seeking Arab support, Iran deliberately attacked its Arab Gulf neighbors—the very countries that had been trying to restore relationships with the meddlesome Islamic Republic. This, no doubt, turned opinion among many in the Gulf against Iran. It is uncertain, however, how much intra-Arab friction this is causing in the rest of Arab world.
- Support for Palestinians has long been a central Arab concern. They showed little interest in making peace with Israel—even in those countries that had signed peace agreements with Israel. As Israeli repression of Palestinians intensified and the fractured and visionless Palestinian leadership failed to inspire, Arab opinion began to change. In late 2019, we asked Arabs if they felt it would be desirable to make peace with Israel, even if Israel didn’t accept the terms of the Arab Peace Initiative. When significant numbers said that it might be desirable, we asked why. The responses varied but many told us that it might help end the violence and give Arabs more leverage to convince Israel to grant Palestinian rights.
We repeated this question at the end of September 2023 and had completed about half of the questionnaires by October 7, the date of the Hamas attack. We interrupted the survey and only went back a few weeks later to complete it. The changes in the results were significant. Before October 7, responses were similar to the 2019 poll, but by the end of October, in reaction to the intensity of Israel’s assault on Gaza, attitudes shifted dramatically against any attempt to deal with Israel. Three years later, one can reasonably assume this hasn’t changed.
In 2024 and 2025, on three occasions, we polled in the Occupied Lands. Results were disturbing. Israeli policy had worked to discredit the Palestinian Authority, weakening its ability to govern. Opinion in the West Bank had turned against the PA, with respondents saying they preferred Hamas. In Gaza, we found that Hamas had fallen into deep disfavor, with a strong plurality of Gazans preferring the PA. In both the West Bank and Gaza there was little support for US, Israeli, or international governance. They preferred Palestinian unity.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to lay waste to Gaza and is running roughshod over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, further angering Palestinians and discrediting the PA. All the while Israel rejects any role for the PA in Gaza. As the situation further unravels, the US ignores Palestinians’ wishes and turns a blind eye to Israeli misdeeds.
- In Lebanon, when Hezbollah was seen as resisting Israel, it found favor among many Lebanese, especially since Israel frequently bombed Lebanon and occupied a swatch of its land from the late 1970s to 2000. However, when in 2008, Hezbollah turned its weapons against the state and in 2019 against the popular revolt, Lebanese opinion divided along sectarian lines. Our polling before 2023 showed that most Lebanese wanted Hezbollah disarmed or under the control of the Lebanese army. But Israel’s recent devastating assault on Lebanon; its bombing throughout the country; its forced expulsion of 1 million Lebanese from the south; its destruction of homes, farmlands, and entire villages; and explicit intention to annex a large portion of the country has no doubt restored some support for Hezbollah and exacerbated internal sectarian tensions, while turning more Lebanese against Israel and the US.
Seen in this light, US efforts to pressure the Lebanese government to forcibly disarm Hezbollah and make a peace agreement with Israel is dangerous for Lebanon’s stability.
***
In each instance, it is America’s lack of attentiveness to Arab sensitivities and needs that contributes to making a bad situation even worse—further embittering Arabs toward the US, deepening fissures within the Arab World, while fostering every-expanding Israeli impunity.
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Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz After Israel-Lebanon Truce as Trump Continues Blockade
Meanwhile, Israel responded to Trump's purported prohibition of Israeli attacks on Lebanon by attacking the country.c
Apr 17, 2026
Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to international shipping following an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement, prompting thanks from President Donald Trump—who then said the US naval blockade on Iranian ports will continue.
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
Trump first thanked Iran in a post on his Truth Social network. However, about 20 minutes later, the president posted again on the site, writing:
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED.
The US, Iran, and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7 after Trump threatened a genocidal attack on Iran, saying that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if there was no deal that day. Officials on all sides clarified that the truce did not signal the end of the ongoing war.
Friday's announcements followed the implementation of a tentative 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, where nearly 50 days of Israeli bombardment has killed or wounded thousands of Lebanese, including hundreds of children, and displaced more than a million others.
It is unclear how Hezbollah, which did not take part in ceasefire negotiations, will respond. The Lebanon-based militant group has retaliated for Israel's genocide in Gaza and attacks on Lebanon with rocket and drone strikes on Israel, and the Lebanese government is largely unable to stop Hezbollah from further attacks if it decides to launch them.
Thousands of Iranians have also been killed or wounded by US and Israeli bombing since February 28, the day the war was launched. That was also the day that a US cruise missile strike on a girls' school in Minab killed 168 people, mostly children.
About half an hour after Trump's Friday post confirming the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the president took to Truth Social again, this time announcing that "the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah [sic] situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!"
Lebanese and Israeli media reported that, minutes after Trump's purported prohibition, Israel subsequently launched a drone strike targeting a motorcycle between the southern Lebanese towns of Kounine and Beit Yahoun, killing one person. The terms of Thursday's ceasefire do allow Israel to conduct "defensive" strikes against “planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks.”
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Despite Ceasefire With Iran, Israel Pummels Lebanon With ‘Apocalyptic’ Strikes
Mediators said Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Netanyahu said it “does not include Lebanon" and launched the largest attack of the war so far.
Apr 08, 2026
Israel made it abundantly clear on Wednesday that it does not consider Lebanon to be protected by Tuesday night’s ceasefire that halted hostilities for two weeks between the US and Iran.
Hours after the ceasefire was reached, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had begun "the largest coordinated strike across Lebanon," since it began its assault on the country in early March, with bombardments on what it said were Hezbollah targets across Beirut, Bekaa, and southern Lebanon.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, at least 87 people have been killed and more than 700 wounded across the country.
Hezbollah reportedly held its fire against Israel after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the agreement, said on Tuesday that "Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY."
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Wednesday that, at least in Israel's eyes, the two-week agreement “does not include Lebanon." Israel said much of what was hit was located “within the heart of the civilian population."
Images and videos posted to social media show scenes that one resident described as "apocalyptic." Many of the attacks reportedly came without warning.
"Families were caught completely by surprise, with no time to escape," the resident said.
According to The Guardian:
Warplanes leveled several buildings in the center of the capital city without warning, filling the skies with smoke and the sounds of sirens as ambulances headed to impact sites.
The streets of Beirut were filled with cars crumpled by the blasts and the flaming wreckage of buildings that first responders struggled to extinguish.
People rushed home to check on their families; a man filmed as he ran towards a struck building in the Chiyah neighbourhood, screaming: “There are people inside!”
Pictures of rubble-covered children circulated on social media as people tried to find their parents.
Israel said it attacked more than 100 targets in less than 10 minutes.
Many more people remain trapped beneath the rubble, according to Haaretz, and full casualty counts have not yet been conducted. Meanwhile, hospitals across Beirut are overflowing with injured people, and first responders have issued urgent appeals for blood donations.
"The wounded and casualties are numerous," said Lebanese Red Cross head Georges Kettaneh, according to the Lebanese news network LBCI. "We are doing everything we can to save them.”
Israel launched another wave of attacks across other parts Lebanon, including a strike on an ambulance in Tyre that killed at least four people, according to local sources.
A bombing in the port city of Sidon left eight people dead and 22 injured. Video from local media outlets shows a local cafe lying in ruins as residents run in fear and paramedics rush to transport the wounded.
Other footage posted by local media showed a gigantic plume of smoke rising above a village in Shamstar, where mourners were reportedly attacked during a funeral procession.
Lebanon's prime minister, Nawaf Salam, said on social media: "Whilst we welcomed the agreement between Iran and the United States, and stepped up our efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, Israel continues to escalate its attacks, which have targeted densely populated residential neighborhoods and claimed the lives of unarmed civilians across Lebanon."
He added that Israel was "showing no regard for regional and international efforts to end the war, let alone the principles of international law and international humanitarian law, which it has never respected in the first place."
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said Israel planned to continue the attacks "without stopping."
The attacks are already threatening to torpedo the ceasefire between the US and Iran in its infancy. Hezbollah legislator Ibrahim Al-Moussawi has warned of a response from Iran if Israel continues to attack Lebanon.
“The agreement includes Lebanon, according to its terms, and Iran insisted on this inclusion,” Al-Moussawi told local television channel Al-Jadeed.
According to Iran's Fars News Agency, it has once again halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's attack, putting in jeopardy a core piece of the agreement—that the waterway would be reopened.
Already, Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,500 people in Lebanon since the beginning of March, including at least 130 children. Israeli evacuation orders have forced more than 1.2 million people—one in five—to flee their homes, and the military has pressured Christian and Druse communities and southern Lebanon to force out Shia Muslims in neighboring communities, which has been described by observers as a push for ethnic cleansing.
Israel routinely violated its previous ceasefire with Lebanon that began in November 2024 with more than 10,000 air and land attacks over the first year, which the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said demonstrated a “total disregard of the ceasefire agreement.” It has done the same in Gaza, where hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since a ceasefire began in October 2025.
The Beirut-based journalist Séamus Malekafzali warned that by launching the "largest attacks... of this war so far" immediately after the US and Iran reached a tentative agreement, Israel was attempting to create conditions that make a durable ceasefire impossible.
He said, "Israel is attempting to create facts on the ground regarding this ceasefire and the supposed stopping of the war on all fronts, not just Iran."
UPDATE: This article has been edited following publication to contain more updated casualty numbers from the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
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‘What This Describes Is Ethnic Cleansing’: Israeli Plan for Southern Lebanon Sparks Horror
"Israel will keep doing it as long as the world keeps looking away with their eyes while reaching out their hands to help fund it," wrote one critic.
Apr 01, 2026
Critics accused Israel of plotting a mass ethnic cleansing campaign in southern Lebanon after a Wednesday report in The New York Times outlined a push by Israeli officials to expel Shiite Muslims from the area.
According to the Times, Israeli military officials have been privately pressing Christian and Druse communities in southern Lebanon to "force out any Lebanese from neighboring Shiite Muslim communities who have sought refuge among them as Israeli bombardments flatten Shiite towns."
Local Christian and Druse leaders told the Times that they believed Israel was sending a "clear signal" that their goal is to drive out all Shiites, who make up the majority of people of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is a Shiite militia group that has regularly fired rockets into Israel.
Ali Naser, a 26-year-old Shiite who lives near the Israel-Lebanon border, told the Times that he and his family had initially found shelter from Israeli bombing in the Christian town of Rmeish. However, he said that local leaders told him that they've come under great pressure from Israel to not give Shiites refuge.
"Israel wants to create a new buffer zone, it wants us out, what can we do?" asked Naser.
Adam Serwer, staff writer at The Atlantic, posted an excerpt of the Times' report on Israel's plans in Southern Lebanon and commented, "So what this describes is ethnic cleansing."
Ashton Pittman, news editor at the Mississippi Free Press, shared Serwer's opinion that Israel's actions are "100% ethnic cleansing," and chided the international community for once again sitting on its hands while Israel carries out illegal forced displacement of Shiite Muslims.
"Israel will keep doing it," he wrote, "as long as the world keeps looking away with their eyes while reaching out their hands to help fund it."
George Washington University political scientist Marc Lynch also argued that the world should doing more to stop Israel's invasion of Lebanon.
"Israel’s open ethnic cleansing of south Lebanon and declared intent to occupy its neighbor’s territory should be the subject of intense international outrage, pressure, and mobilization," wrote Lynch.
The human rights organization DAWN on Wednesday cited recent remarks from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz about Israel's plans to level Lebanese villages adjacent to Israel's border, while also refusing to allow Lebanese citizens who evacuated the area to return.
Michael Schaeffer Omer-Man, director for Israel-Palestine at DAWN, accused Israel of "accelerating its agenda to take over more land, this time in Lebanon."
"[Israel's] track record in Palestine and across the region makes clear it won't stop without concrete consequences," said Omer-Man, "and states should act before it's too late."
United Nations emergency relief coordinator Tom Fletcher warned on Tuesday that "a cycle of coercive displacement is unfolding" in Lebanon, where Israel's military invasion has so far displaced more than 1.1 million people.
Fletcher also said that the conflict in southern Lebanon was causing "anxiety and tensions at levels I have not witnessed in many years" in the region.
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Israel Admits It ‘Photoshopped’ Image to Portray Assassinated Lebanese Journalist as Hezbollah Operative
The Committee to Protect Journalists regional director called the killing part of “a disturbing pattern” of “Israel accusing journalists of being active combatants and terrorists without providing credible evidence.”
Mar 30, 2026
An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson has admitted that the military posted a "photoshopped" image of a Lebanese journalist killed in an airstrike in order to portray him as a Hezbollah operative.
On Saturday, three journalists—Ali Shuaib, a veteran correspondent for Al-Manar TV; Fatima Ftouni of the Al Mayadeen channel; and her brother, cameraman Mohammad Ftouni—were killed when four precision missiles hit their car on the Jezzine Road in Southern Lebanon. Several other reporters were injured in the attack.
According to Al Jazeera, the vehicle was clearly marked "press."
In the following hours, the IDF's official social media account posted that it had "ELIMINATED" Shuaib in the attack.
"For years, Ali Hassan Shuaib operated as a Hezbollah Radwan Force terrorist under the guise of a journalist," the post read. "Turns out the 'press vest' was just a cover for terror."
The post, which has more than 2.1 million views on X as of Monday, featured a split image showing Shuaib in a press outfit on one side and in a Hezbollah military uniform on the other.
But according to Fox News' chief foreign correspondent, Trey Yingst, the network later asked the IDF about the photo's source. They were told: "Unfortunately, there isn't really a picture of it. It was photoshopped."
On Monday, Israel issued another statement claiming that Mohammad Ftouni was "an additional terrorist in Hezbollah's military wing, who also operated under the guise of a journalist."
But when asked for evidence to confirm this by the Agence France-Presse, it provided none, with a spokesperson saying, "What we have is what we can state."
Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) regional director Sara Qudah called the killings part of "a disturbing pattern in this war and in the decades prior [of] Israel accusing journalists of being active combatants and terrorists without providing credible evidence."
Israel accused Shuaib of "consistently working to expose the locations of IDF troops operating in southern Lebanon and along the border, and maintain[ing] continuous contact with other terrorists in the Radwan Force unit in particular, and within the terror organization in general.”
American journalist Ryan Grim, the co-founder of Drop Site News, said: "The Israeli statement itself says that his 'crime' was reporting on troop locations and communicating with sources in Hezbollah. That is called war reporting."
According to a report last month by CPJ, a record 129 journalists were killed in 2025, and Israel was responsible for two-thirds of the worldwide total.
The vast majority of those killed have been Palestinian journalists in Gaza—at least 261 of whom have been killed since October 7, 2023—according to a running tally by the International Federation of Journalists. At least 11 journalists have also been killed in Lebanon since 2023.
In addition to Shuaib and the Ftounis, two others have been killed since Israel's latest onslaught in Lebanon after Hezbollah retaliated against US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Israeli attacks have also resulted in the deaths of photojournalist Hussain Hamood and journalist Mohammed Sherri this month.
An investigation last year by +972 and the Israeli outlet Local Call revealed that the IDF has an informal unit known as the "Legitimization Cell,” which seeks to find tenuous links between journalists and militant groups to justify assassinating them.
As one source explained, the cell's members seek out reporters they believe are “smearing [Israel’s] name in front of the world" by reporting evidence of the country's conduct.
While Al-Manar is the official news outlet for Hezbollah and Al Mayadeen is considered to be closely tied with the militia, Qudah noted that under international law, "journalists are not legitimate targets, regardless of the outlet they work for.”
In less than a month, Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed more than 1,100 people, including at least 121 children, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
Many pieces of civilian infrastructure—including hospitals, schools, and residential buildings—have been attacked, and Israel has issued forced evacuation orders that have led more than 1 million people to be displaced from their homes.
On the same day that the three journalists were attacked, the World Health Organization reported that nine paramedics were killed across southern Lebanon in a series of attacks on healthcare infrastructure.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said that by attacking civilian workers carrying out their professional duties, Israel has violated “the most basic rules of international law."
He called it “a blatant crime that violates all norms and treaties under which journalists are granted international protection during armed conflicts."
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With Tacit US Approval, Israel Pursues the 'Gaza Model' in Lebanon
All indications point to a new and brutal type of war in Lebanon—one that could drag on even if the war in Iran comes to a close.
Mar 28, 2026
Israel’s defense minister said in a statement this week that Israeli forces are working to implement the “Rafah and Beit Hanoun model” in southern Lebanon, sparking fears that Israel is planning to flatten entire towns in an attempt to defeat Hezbollah once and for all.
As Israel prepares its forces for a full-scale invasion, the intensity of this new approach is starting to come into focus, even as most of the world’s attention has stayed on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. Israel’s war in Lebanon has already killed more than 1,000 people in a country of just 6 million. All indications point to a new and brutal type of war in Lebanon—one that could drag on even if the war in Iran comes to a close.
Ahead of a broader ground campaign, Israel has mandated that civilians leave large swathes of territory in southern Lebanon and some neighborhoods of Beirut, which has faced waves of airstrikes. Many civilians have heeded these calls, leaving nearly 20% of the population displaced. But, now that Israeli forces have destroyed all bridges across the Litani River, which separates southern Lebanon from the rest of the country, remaining residents will have little choice but to bunker down.
As with Hamas in Gaza, Israel’s strategy is unlikely to succeed in completely destroying Hezbollah, according to Middle East analysts. An extended occupation, as Israel is now threatening to pursue, could instead provide a lifeline to Hezbollah just as public opinion in Lebanon had begun to turn decisively against it. Such a result would represent a significant setback to US and Israeli efforts to disarm the militant group.
The campaign comes as the Lebanese government has started to seriously crack down on Hezbollah, including by declaring the group’s armed wing to be illegal. But a long, brutal occupation could help the group rebuild its domestic legitimacy.
If history is any guide, a sustained occupation may even push Hezbollah’s skeptics in Lebanon to join the resistance, according to Thanassis Cambanis of the Century Foundation, who has written extensively about Hezbollah and Lebanese politics.
“Israel and some of its supporters have forgotten that they don't have free rein to do whatever they want by force,” Cambanis said. “Countries can and do fight back.”
‘Burn the Lawn’
Hezbollah was forged in the crucible of Israel’s first military campaigns in Lebanon. In 1982, as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) invaded Lebanon for the second time in four years, Shiite leaders in the country’s south formed militias that would eventually coalesce into the militia-cum-political party that has in many ways defined the course of Lebanese politics ever since.
Hezbollah has never commanded the support of most Lebanese people, but it has earned a sort of begrudging respect through its military successes. Most notable among these was the insurgent campaign that drove Israeli forces out of Lebanon in 2000, ending Israel’s two-decade-long campaign in the country.
The pause in hostilities didn’t last long. In 2006, Hezbollah launched raids against Israeli soldiers along Lebanon’s southern border in an attempt to force Israel into a prisoner exchange. Israel, determined to restore deterrence with its northern neighbor, invaded the country and debuted a new military doctrine that would later become known as the Dahiya doctrine.
The Israeli campaign, meanwhile, has led to extensive civilian harm, including at least 15 attacks on paramedics and first responders.
The Dahiya doctrine relies on disproportionate force, including the destruction of civilian infrastructure, to deliver lasting setbacks to Hezbollah and incite Lebanese popular opinion against the group. In the 2006 war, this meant flattening large parts of the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut, which is largely Shia. After Israel withdrew, both sides declared victory. Israeli deterrence held strong until after the October 7 attacks, when Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel.
Israel pursued the Dahiya doctrine again in its 2024 invasion of Lebanon, destroying buildings and infrastructure across the country. Hezbollah and Israel reached an agreement to stop hostilities after about two months of war, but Israeli forces have maintained a steady campaign of air strikes ever since.
Now, following Hezbollah’s decision to fire rockets at Israel after it killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Israeli leaders appear determined to move up the escalation ladder and pursue a Gaza-like campaign in Lebanon. These attacks are “unlike anything we’ve seen before” in the country, according to Cambanis. “Instead of ‘mowing the lawn,’ they want to ‘burn the lawn.’” So far, this has meant going after targets like gas stations, bridges and civilian homes.
This strategy has drawn skepticism even from pro-Israel commentators. “Israel will raze all the homes along the borders to flatten areas, apparently in order to prevent threats,” wrote Seth Frantzman of The Jerusalem Post. “[I]t’s hard not to see this as punitive and collective punishment.” Israeli Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, who still serves in the IDF reserves, argued last week that a “deep military maneuver inside Lebanon, without a clear political objective, will drag Israel back into the Lebanese mud” without bringing “real security.”
This higher level of intensity, combined with the long occupation that Israel is now threatening, could “succeed for a time” in degrading Hezbollah, Cambanis said. But “it's guaranteed to more deeply destabilize not just Lebanon, but also Syria.”
Further complicating matters for Israel is the news that Hezbollah has reconfigured its forces for a sustained insurgency. According to Reuters, Iranian military officers have since 2024 helped the militant group redesign its command structure from a centralized force into a decentralized one made up of “small units with limited knowledge of each other's operations, helping to preserve operational secrecy.”
Blowback
The campaign comes as the Lebanese government has started to seriously crack down on Hezbollah, including by declaring the group’s armed wing to be illegal. But a long, brutal occupation could help the group rebuild its domestic legitimacy.
“A prolonged Israeli military presence will likely deepen instability and further weaken Lebanese state institutions,” wrote Nicole El Khawaja and Renad Mansour of Chatham House. “It will also create the conditions for Hezbollah to reconstitute its military capabilities and rebuild popular support.”
Further inflaming the situation are comments from Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who called this week for the annexation of southern Lebanon in order to create a new “buffer line.” Rights groups have also raised allegations of Israeli war crimes, with Human Rights Watch accusing the IDF of using white phosphorus bombs, which cause severe burns and emit toxic fumes, in civilian areas.
In an ideal world, the US would withdraw “any support for Israel's campaign in Lebanon” and force Israel into negotiations.
Hezbollah, for its part, has launched more than 3,500 rockets and munitions into Israel, forcing some Israelis to live in bomb shelters full-time. These attacks have killed multiple Israeli civilians; on Thursday alone, the group fired more than 100 rockets into Israel, killing one civilian and injuring an additional 13.
The Israeli campaign, meanwhile, has led to extensive civilian harm, including at least 15 attacks on paramedics and first responders, according to Emily Tripp of Airwars, which monitors civilians in conflicts. “In the last three weeks we have identified more than 330 incidents of civilian harm,” Tripp told Responsible Statecraft. Prior to Israel’s 2024 campaign in Lebanon and its ongoing operations in Gaza, her organization had “never documented more than 250 civilian harm events in a single month,” she added.
The early days of this latest Lebanon campaign have drawn significant international blowback. Spanish President Pedro Sanchez slammed Israel for seeking to “inflict the same level of damage and destruction” in Lebanon as in Gaza, and United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the “Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon.”
The United States, for its part, has said little about the war. In an ideal world, the US would withdraw “any support for Israel's campaign in Lebanon” and force Israel into negotiations, Cambanis said. “In practice, we know that the US has greenlit what Israel is doing in Lebanon.”
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Israel Says IDF Will Stay in Lebanon for Months as It Expands Ground Invasion in South
"There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen," said one analyst.
Mar 16, 2026
More than 800,000 Lebanese people who have been forced from their homes in southern Lebanon in the last two weeks have little hope of returning soon as the Israeli government on Monday announced its military had begun "limited and targeted ground operations" in and around the strategic southern town of Khiam, a stronghold of Hezbollah.
The ground attacks represent a significant expansion of the Israel Defense Forces' ground operations. On March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in retaliation for the US and Israel's killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel began sending troops into Lebanon to bolster the presence the IDF has had there in five areas since a 2024 ceasefire.
Until now, ground forces have conducted "limited incursions," Axios reported.
Israel has also launched airstrikes in Lebanon, killing at least 850 people—including 107 children and 66 women—since it was joined by the US late last month in abruptly ending diplomatic negotiations and attacking Iran.
The Times of Israel reported that the IDF carried out "massive airstrikes and artillery shelling 'to remove threats'" over the weekend before the 91st "Galilee" Regional Division began raiding the eastern section of southern Lebanon in attacks that the military said killed several Hezbollah operatives.
Israel conducted raids on towns including Burj Qalawiya, Sultyaniya, Chaqra, Qantara, and as-Sawana on Monday, according to Al Jazeera Arabic, with the military saying the 91st Division had "begun limited and targeted ground operations against key Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon."
A major target of the ramped up ground attacks was Khiam, a Hezbollah stronghold that lies at a strategic junction of roads leading to the eastern and western sections of southern Lebanon.
"What Israel has been trying to do is really cut the supply lines and the difficult capabilities of Hezbollah, so it’s unable to bring in more weapons and fighters to areas south of the Litani River," reported Zeina Khodr of Al Jazeera.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that due to what the IDF claimed will be "limited and targeted ground operations," close to a million people who have fled their homes in southern Lebanon "will not return to their homes south of the Litani River until the security of the residents of [northern Israel] is guaranteed.”
While claiming the operation in southern Lebanon will be "limited," Katz also said the operation is intended to resemble Israel's assault on Gaza, which has continued despite a ceasefire that was reached last October, has killed more than 75,000 Palestinians, and has been called a genocide by leading human rights groups and scholars.
Dozens of healthcare workers have been killed in Israeli strikes since the IDF began attacking Lebanon earlier this month; in Gaza, more than 1,500 doctors, nurses, and medics have been killed in October 2023. One attack that killed two paramedics this week in the southern village of Kfarsir was reportedly a "double-tap" strike in which first responders were killed when they arrived to help victims of an initial strike on a building.
The charity group Save the Children on Monday described children "clutching beloved pets and toys as they flee their homes in Lebanon due to the escalating conflict," and said nearly 300,000 children are among those who have been forcibly displaced.
More than 130,000 people are sheltering in overcrowded schools that have been repurposed as refugee shelters, said the group, and families have had to leave their homes without time to gather crucial documents, clothes, or medications.
“Many families were forced to flee in the middle of the night with nothing, and children miss their homes, their villages, their friends, and their schools," said Nora Ingdal, country director for Save the Children Lebanon. "I met a child who told me, ‘I'm not able to play here and I just want to go back to my village as soon as possible.’ One child I met clutched his blue toy car, as it was the only thing he had managed to bring from home."
"Hostilities must end and children must be protected at all costs," said Ingdal. "We know children are always the most impacted in any conflict, and the psychological impacts last long after any conflict ends."
The IDF is reportedly calling up 450,000 reservists to carry out the ground invasion, and the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that a senior Northern Command official told reservists in a briefing that the operation could continue "until Shavuot," a Jewish holiday falling between May 21-23.
"We will stay as long as necessary," the official said.
Lebanese security sources told Reuters Monday that the IDF had effectively taken control of Khiam and were advancing west toward the Litani River, which could cut off parts of southern Lebanon from the rest of the country.
Katz has also threatened to seize territory in the southern area in an effort to uproot Hezbollah.
Geopolitical analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim said Israel appears to be using "coercive diplomacy" and expressing a willingness to hold direct talks with Lebanon in the coming days.
"Israel is applying the Daheyia Doctrine, which uses overwhelming, disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in areas controlled by Hezbollah to deter future attacks," said Ben-Ephraim. "However, they plan to use this increasingly against Lebanese infrastructure to coerce Lebanon into a deal."
"There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen," he said.
US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) emphasized that the expanded ground operation in Lebanon is one of several crises unfolding as a result of President Donald Trump's decision to launch attacks against Iran with Israel.
"A broader, regional war is breaking out," said Murphy. "Trump has no endgame. Iran and its proxies can create chaos indefinitely."
"All of this was totally foreseeable," he added. "Frankly, it’s why previous presidents weren’t so stupid to start a war like this. Trump has lost control of the war. His best course now is to cut his losses and end it. That’s the only way to prevent an even bigger disaster."
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