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Any Seeds of Hope Beneath the Rubble in Gaza?
They may be only seeds, but that’s how new life is born.
Jan 12, 2025
Watching, on the one hand, the Israeli soldiers’ video confessions of their genocidal intent and acts and, on the other hand, the Palestinians’ livestreaming of their own deaths and devastation, it is ever so easy to throw one’s hands up in the air, to despair, to want to shut the cruelty out, to find solace in oblivion and disengagement. But, it is not only ethically wrong to surrender to despair – it is also factually wrong that nothing good can be expected. Things change every day and, yes, the seeds of hope are already planted on the blood-soaked soil of the ancient land of Palestine. They may be only seeds, but that’s how new life is born.
So, let’s take a look at the seeds of hope that are taking root underneath the rubble.
1. Israel is not winning on the battlefield
Gaza has been destroyed. Its population is on death row. And yet the smart people in the Israeli military know full well that the destruction they wreaked does not translate into a victory. Fifteen months after they re-invaded the open prison that has been the Gaza strip since 1948, they still cannot control more than a small portion of it at a time. Armed resistance, including the regular blowing up of Israel’s mighty tanks, is continuing. Israeli military officers also know that their political leaders’ stated aim, of eradicating Hamas, can never be demonstrably achieved, however many Hamas fighters they kill. As a former Israeli general put it to me: “Even if we kill most the Gazans before we declare victory, a single teenager raising the Hamas flag over a pile of rubble will prove that we failed.”
Similarly in Lebanon. Yes, Israel has killed much of the Hezbollah leadership and, yes, the ceasefire it imposed on Hezbollah succeeded in stopping the Hezbollah missile launches in solidarity with the Palestinian resistance further south. However, the ceasefire was also forced upon Israel by its army’s inability to venture without massive losses by more than a few kilometres into Lebanese territory. And, lest we forget, it is simply not true that Hezbollah had to accept the ceasefire because its missile arsenal was destroyed: Israel signed the ceasefire hours after missiles hit Haifa, and indeed Tel Aviv.
The past year, in other words, will be remembered as a cruel paradox: Israel destroyed Gaza and much of South Lebanon, mainly from the air, but failed abysmally to control the ground. The time is fast approaching when Israeli society will realize that the thousands of Israeli soldiers who died or were seriously injured were the victims of a leadership that, ultimately, placed the Israeli people’s interests very low in their own list of priorities. This is also confirmed by the readiness of Israel’s government to lie through its teeth about its own casualties on the battlefield: compare the low number of casualties officially admitted with the more than twenty thousand soldiers that Israel’s health authorities say have been admitted to veteran rehabilitation centers.
2. Israel’s economy has entered a ‘spiral of collapse’
Turning now to the medium and long term impact of the war on Israel’s economy (which is of great importance from the perspective of the apartheid state’s capacity to reproduce itself through war and devastation financially), it is instructive to read a letter signed by Israeli economists, including Dan Ben-David who explain how Israel’s economic miracle hinges on a hi-tech sector that numbers at most 300 thousand people (including doctors, scientists, academics etc.) His point? If only 10% of these people leave the country, say thirty thousand, Israel’s already hugely indebted economy will fade. In Ben-David’s even starker words,
“We won’t become a third world country, we just won’t be anymore. Only 0.6% of the population are doctors, but who trains them? The senior staff in research universities are 0.1% of the people. High-Tech workers are 6% of the population. Altogether it’s 300,000 people. It’s enough that a critical mass of this group chooses not to be here tomorrow morning, and the State of Israel leaves the developed world.”
Are they leaving? You bet they are – leaving behind them more influential, more dominant than ever before the low-productivity bigots who are driving the fascist settler movement. And, the more dominant these low-productivity bigots are in government and in society, the greater the exodus of the high-tech, secular more liberally minded Israelis. This is the definition of a spiral of collapse.
Israel has lost in the court of public opinion – the illusion of a liberal democratic state is gone
Meanwhile, the genocide of Palestinians, and in particular the manner in which so many Israeli soldiers and politicians celebrate it in videos, speeches and posts, has claimed what is left of the illusion of Israel as a European liberal democracy embedded in a hostile Middle East. That illusion has been a central underpinning of the propaganda that helped Israeli lobbyists succeed in Washington and Europe. Now it is gone. It has drowned in the sea of flesh and blood the Israeli military has strewn all over Gaza – and the trail of destruction, hatred and viciousness that the settlers have unleashed in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. Once Israel’s cleverly constructed reputation was gone, sullied, it cannot be reclaimed. And that is good news in the sense that the first step toward a just peace is the ethical fall from grace of the aggressor.
The situation in the Occupied Territories
Turning now to the situation in the West Bank, it is heart-wrenching to watch the non-stop violence against the Palestinians living under brutal apartheid conditions there. The violence against them comes from three quarters: From the Israeli military. From Israeli settlers. And, most tragically, from the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) own security forces who are, in the midst of the genocide of their people by the apartheid state, are cooperating fully with the security forces of that apartheid state. Why the army is doing this, we know. Why the settlers are doing it, we also know. But why is the leadership of the PA doing it?
This is not the first time the PA has cooperated fully with the Israeli occupiers who steadfastly reject any prospect of a Palestinian state – the stated objective of the PA. Sure enough, the PA’s leadership have been doing this for years. But, now, in the face of the fully-fledged genocidal campaign by Israel, the PA’s excuses are becoming transparent. The unelected, unrepresentative, patently corrupt leadership of the PA is behaving as if to impress Netanyahu and Trump that they can do their dirty work for them, with a veneer of legitimacy courtesy of being Palestinians themselves. That they have a role to play. It is a pathetic plea to the genocidal US-Israeli establishment to give them a job to do against the Palestinian Resistance now that the Palestinian people has seen through them. Nothing else explains why they are turning even against Fatah members who continue to resist in Jenin and elsewhere.
This is the saddest, most depressing, aspect of the Palestinian tragedy. So I shall not dwell on it further except to reiterate the urgent need for the election of a representative and thus legitimate leadership of the Palestinian people. No peace can be imagined, let alone negotiated, otherwise. I hope and trust that the Palestinians will find a way to speak with one non-sectarian voice. Nothing short of succeeding in this will curb the genocide they face. As for the rest of us, we must stand by to help give this voice, their voice, a chance to be heard.
Summary
To sum up, days before Donald Trump enters the White House – a man who has never not liked any war crime aimed at eradicating the Palestinian resistance, the Palestinians as a people native to Palestine – we are at a crossroads. Mega Death and uber destruction on the ground wreaked by a US-armed and EU-supported Israel. A spiral of collapse within Israel’s social economy. Arab countries split between complicit regimes and enraged citizens. A Global South that is becoming increasingly powerful and intolerant of the Western-Israeli self-awarded right ethnically to cleanse the non-Jewish native population. And a Western public opinion that can no longer pretend to not know. What is the upshot of these ingredients?
If I were to issue an educated guess, it would be this: Things will get even worse for the Palestinians in the short run. But, in the longer run, the possibility of liberation, of a just peace for both Palestinians, who refuse to go gently into the good night, and for Israelis, who understand the trap into which Netanyahu has ensnared them, seems stronger than it has been for 30 years.
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Why the Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire Isn’t a Path to Lasting Peace
The “deal” the U.S. negotiated between Israel and Lebanon addresses none of the root causes of conflict and only gives Israel a freer hand to pursue its goal of a “pax Israelica.”
Dec 03, 2024
This past week, Israeli, Lebanese, and U.S. leaders were busy patting themselves on the back announcing the completion of an Israeli/Lebanese cease-fire agreement. The Israeli prime minister crowed about Israel victorious and now the unquestioned dominant force throughout the Middle East. Hezbollah declared a “divine victory” greater than the one they achieved in 2006. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders were congratulating themselves for their leadership in a settlement they hoped would “advance broader peace and prosperity in the region.”
To say I’m skeptical about all of this is an understatement. At least for now, the Lebanese will have some respite from Israel’s relentless bombings. And Israeli forces will begin to withdraw from the south of the country. Nevertheless, I’m not uncorking the champagne to celebrate. Too many have died, too much bitterness has been sown, no lessons have been learned, and too many issues remain unresolved. There will be, as there always is, a reckoning for the consequences of this war.
The extensive physical damage to Lebanon and its people is staggering. Almost 4,000 dead and many thousands more were wounded. International agencies report that 1.3 million were forced to flee from their homes—some forced to do so more than once—and upward of 100,000 homes have been destroyed either by bombings or bulldozing of entire areas by Israeli forces in their “cleansing” operations in the border villages.
As of now, Netanyahu and the majority of Israelis have learned no lessons at all. Their blind self-righteousness emboldened by U.S. support has metastasized into a cancerous sense of impunity.
In his announcement of the cease-fire, U.S. President Joe Biden said that now Israelis and Lebanese can return to their homes—except that, for hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, their homes no longer exist. And it’s important to acknowledge that the cease-fire is tentative, and its terms are decidedly lopsided.
Once again, as they did in 2006, Hezbollah miscalculated. It may have seemed honorable to demonstrate solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. But they were kicking the hornets’ nest of a foe whose ruthlessness knows no limits and faces no restraints. Israel responded with complete impunity, violating all of the norms of international law and civilized behavior.
At this point, Hezbollah has no doubt been weakened. They will be forced to relocate north of the Litani River and have lost their claim to be a feared deterrent against Israeli dominance. It remains to be seen to what extent they will be able to use their armed presence as the pretorian guard protecting the ancien regime in Lebanon.
Cease-fire or no cease-fire, Lebanon has internal problems that must be addressed, but which now, in the aftermath of this war, are less likely to be.
It’s true that Hezbollah plays a role in Iran’s regional strategy. But it is wrong to see it only in that light. What gave birth to this movement were problems internal to Lebanon. Hezbollah represents an aggrieved Shi’a community that had long felt that it had been dealt the short end of the stick in Lebanese affairs. They suffered the consequences of Israel’s war with the PLO at the end of which their villages were occupied by the Israeli military for more than two decades. With Israel being forced to end its occupation in 2000, Hezbollah’s stature grew.
While no precise demographic figures exist, most estimates place the Shi’a community as Lebanon’s largest sectarian grouping. They harbor a deep sense of disenfranchisement and are unwilling, especially after what they have recently endured, to accept a subordinate status.
So while it’s important, as some say, for Lebanon to “get its act together” and elect a new president and establish a government, that’s not nearly enough. There must be reform and an end to the corrupt, outmoded sectarian system. Whether one blames Hezbollah for this war or not, if real reform isn’t implemented, the inequities of Lebanon’s sectarian divisions will cause tensions and disruptions that will continue to place the country’s recovery at risk.
It was both frightening and disturbing to listen to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crowing about his great successes in defying world opinion and winning, as he described it, against all of Israel’s foes. He went further with the threat of continuing to use Israel’s unmatched military might to ensure Israel’s security and dominance. But here too there is a reckoning that must be addressed.
As we have learned from past wars, there are wounds that do not heal. Israel may be feared, but it is hated more than ever. Palestinians and many Lebanese, and Arabs in general, are now more hostile to Israel than before these wars took their tolls.
As of now, Netanyahu and the majority of Israelis have learned no lessons at all. Their blind self-righteousness emboldened by U.S. support has metastasized into a cancerous sense of impunity. They continue their genocidal campaign in Gaza hell-bent on the destruction of Hamas. But it is increasingly clear that isn’t their only goal—which is to liquidate the Palestinian presence in most of Gaza and establish a permanent regime there. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Israelis are also determined to subdue and annex and expand their settlement presence.
Israel’s military might seem dominant, but Israelis aren’t safer. Even now they daily fall victim to resistance born of anger at their brutal occupation policies. They will not be secure or achieve broader regional acceptance until they change. And given the hold the far-right has over Israeli politics, change isn’t coming any time soon.
As distressing as these failures of the Lebanese and Israeli leaderships may be, those of U.S. policymakers are worse as they bear significant responsibility for what has transpired not just over the past year. For decades, the U.S. turned a blind eye to Israeli settlement expansion, their policies that sabotaged the peace process, contributed to the collapse of Palestinian governance and the rise of Hamas, the subjugation of the Palestinian people, and the empowerment of Israel’s extremist right wing. Instead of accepting paternity for this mess that we helped birth, we have now armed Israel to the teeth and covered for its crimes in international fora.
The “deal” we negotiated between Israel and Lebanon addresses none of the root causes of conflict and only gives Israel a freer hand to pursue its goal of a “pax Israelica”—which is sure to produce greater conflict, not the hoped broader regional peace.
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Israel Accused of Violating Lebanon Cease-Fire Deal 'About 100 Times'
Israeli airstrikes killed nearly a dozen people in southern Lebanon on Monday, heightening fears that a tenuous cease-fire agreement is on the verge of collapse.
Dec 03, 2024
The Israeli military on Monday carried out a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing nearly a dozen people and further imperiling a fragile cease-fire agreement that Israel has been accused of violating dozens of times since the deal took effect last week.
Israel's latest strikes came after Hezbollah fired a pair of projectiles in the direction of Israeli-occupied territory known as Shebaa Farms. Israel's military, which condemned the Hezbollah attack as a violation of the cease-fire deal, said the projectiles did not cause any casualties, as they fell in open areas.
The Israeli outlet Ynetreported that Israel "acted against alleged Hezbollah violations without consulting the international committee tasked with monitoring compliance under the agreement."
CNNnoted Monday that Hezbollah's projectile fire was a response to "repeated Israeli strikes that have hit Lebanon daily since Thursday, the day after the cease-fire came into force." A United Nations peacekeeping source told the outlet that Israel has violated the cease-fire deal "about 100 times."
About the Lebanon ceasefire Biden is so proud of — CNN just reported that "Israel has violated that ceasefire about 100 times." pic.twitter.com/w172R5VrQM
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) December 2, 2024
In a statement, Hezbollah accused Israel of "firing on civilians" and launching "airstrikes in different parts of Lebanon, which led to the death of citizens and the injury of others, in addition to the continued violation of Lebanese airspace by hostile Israeli aircraft reaching the capital Beirut."
The cease-fire deal brokered by France and the United States includes a 60-day period during which Israel must halt "offensive military operations against Lebanese targets" and withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon. The agreement was announced after weeks of relentless Israeli bombings and ground attacks in Lebanon that killed thousands of people and displaced more than a million.
The U.S., Israel's main ally and weapons supplier, assured Israel that a cease-fire agreement would not limit its ability to attack Lebanon whenever it perceives a threat, calling into question the deal's legitimacy.
Asked about alleged violations of the cease-fire agreement, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters Monday that "the cease-fire is holding" and the Biden administration is examining potential violations in partnership with the government of France.
"Ultimately, what we don't want to see is the cease-fire break down, and we have not seen the cease-fire break down," Miller said.
But the Biden administration has reportedly told Israel privately that it is "concerned" the cease-fire deal could collapse.
"The Israelis have been playing a dangerous game in recent days," an unnamed U.S. official told Axios.
One Israeli official, according toAxios, "admitted that the current situation could lead to the collapse of the cease-fire but stressed it will depend on how Hezbollah responds" to Israel's latest round of airstrikes.
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