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Le Pen took advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with Macron. But now the ball is in the court of the left, and the weather forecast is not too bright.
In the last few months, Europe has been in a social and political turmoil of disturbing proportions. The main issues, such as increased migration, the cost of living, and national security, are pushing climate catastrophe and serious alternatives to capitalism to the background. Extreme right-wing parties are on the rise while the left is obviously having trouble reaching potential supporters. Or so it has seemed.
One of the reasons for the rise of right-wing populists is that dissatisfied citizens can relate to their emotional, nostalgic rhetoric about homelands invaded by migrants that endanger “our” way of life and identity by taking away jobs, housing, and security. In addition, these populists are downplaying the need for serious measures to slow down climate change by insisting, simplistically and manipulatively, that they want to spare ordinary people the expense of costly projects.
By contrast, left wing parties are warning that security must be secured for the future, keeping climate change and the resolution of international conflicts in the foreground.
The migration issue remains fertile ground for right-wing mobilization and manipulation. The radical right chooses not to speak about movements of population in general terms. They ignore the fact that migration, as a trend, is as old as humankind. These days it even represents a form of countermovement. After centuries of exploration and later colonialization that started from Europe, people are now coming to the Old Continent for a return visit. Their countries were often left devastated when Europeans decided to leave, and now they are searching for a new beginning on the soil of their conquerors. Or they are refuges from the wars started, helped, or provoked by the West.
When the numbers of newcomers start to be overwhelming, problems are inevitable. In Western Europe, the greatest cumulative impact of the migrations has been in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria, and Sweden. The right-wing parties there are vehemently promising to do something without proposing any workable solution. In fairness, the countries of Europe haven’t been able to come up with any convincing and effective common strategy for many decades. The result is polarization, and a lack of security for all.
In The Netherlands, the far right has turned this perennial problem into an electoral opportunity.
The Dutch elections, in which the big winner was the Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders, are seven months in the past, but only a few days ago the new government was sworn in by the king. Long-standing Prime Minister Mark Rutte handed over the keys of the office to his successor Dick Schoof, jumped on his bicycle, and rode happily into the sunset, or more precisely, to his new post as the head of NATO. Schoof was the secretary-general at the Ministry of Justice and Security from 2020 to 2024. He was a member of the Labour Party (PvdA) for over 30 years until he left in early 2021. Now, without party affiliation, he’s in charge of the extra parliamentary cabinet composed of several parties anchored by the PVV.
Schoof’s baptism of fire took place at the beginning of July, during his first address to the House of Representatives. It was not a pleasant occasion and most of the time he was under attack both from the opposition and from members of his cabinet. He failed to reproach two of his ministers, both from PVV, for racist remarks concerning women with headscarves, the replacement of the population, and the spreading of conspiracy theories. The opposition was far from satisfied, and so was Wilders, who expected Schoof to protect his ministers whatever they say. Cracks in the right-wing coalition are already visible, journalists will have no shortage of scandals to report on, and the politically inexperienced Schoof will have difficulty holding everything together.
The EU parliamentary elections have been expected with dread by left and progressive forces. For some time, it seemed inevitable that the right would achieve overwhelming success. The Italian Fratelli d’Italia, the Alternative for Germany, and the French National Rally expected to win the elections. As it happened, they came close. The results point to a strong shift in the political atmosphere in Europe compared to the previous round of votes in 2019, though the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the strongest group in the European Parliament, which is good news for its leader, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The new parliament is going to be less environmentally friendly, more fragmented, and increasingly unwelcoming toward migrants. The Greens, which made strong gains in the 2019 elections, took a major hit by losing 19 seats. On the other hand, these elections are a sort of referendum for national leaders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a defeat, while the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), scored its best results in history. President Emmanuel Macron is the big loser and Marine Le Pen the big winner, as is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. For Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party, it was the worst-ever result in a European Parliament election. His friend Geert Wilders’ far-right party also fell short of expectations and came in behind a Left-Green alliance.
Two recent elections also kept the emotions flying high. In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party won big and the Tories lost after 14 years in power. Tory leader Rishi Sunak has resigned, and he has no obvious job to bike off to. The centrist Liberal Democrats made some gains. Smaller parties like the Greens, the far-right Reform UK party of Nigel Farage, and independent candidates also picked up several seats. Farage is satisfied and optimistic: “This is just the first step of something that is going to stun all of you,” he declared in the early hours of Friday morning.”
Who will be stunned and how is anybody’s guess. But after the victory, the Labour Party will have to move quickly to achieve the change it has promised, such as restoring the health of Britain’s ailing National Health Service, improving transport, curbing the costs of living, strengthening the country’s ties with its European partners, and tackling problems of illegal migration in a gentler way. The center left must still prove itself, and Jeremy Corbyn, further to the left, will no doubt be watching carefully from the seat in the House of Commons that he won again.
The polls indicated a Labour victory in the UK well in advance, while in France the situation was unpredictable up to the last moment. The winners are the newly established New Popular Front (NFP) alliance that brings together leftists from different parties. Their proclaimed goals are to cap prices of essential goods like fuel and food, raise the minimum wage to a net 1,600 euros per month, increase wages for public sector workers, and impose a wealth tax. They want to govern, but it remains to be seen how they will manage. The general atmosphere in France is one of relief that the far right is stopped for the moment. But the key question is whether the “awkward” leftist alliance hastily put together by Communists, Greens, and Socialists will manage to put aside their differences and agree on a common course. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella called the cooperation between anti-RN forces a “disgraceful alliance” that would paralyze France.
Le Pen took advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with Macron. But now the ball is in the court of the left, and the weather forecast is not too bright. However, the undoubtedly positive message of the French elections is that the left can come together and do well when the motivation is strong enough.
But new right-wing alliances are taking shape. The brand new one that Wilders recently joined a few days ago is Patriots for Europe, formed by right-wing parties from Czechia, Hungary, and Austria. It looks like they are not going to be short of candidates. Marine Le Pan and Matteo Salvini also joined the group. In The Guardian, Petr Fiala issued a withering assessment of the new group: “Let’s call a spade a spade. Patriots for Europe serves the interests of Russia, either consciously or unconsciously, and thus it threatens the security and freedom of Europe.” The Patriots’ Manifesto emphasizes its intention to “protect Europe’s Christian roots,” ensure “the strongest possible protection of Europe’s external borders,” and create a “strong competitive Europe.” The group will become the third-largest force in the European parliament and the largest-ever far-right bloc in the history of the assembly.
In other European countries, inside and outside of the EU, numerous struggles and battles of diverse forms are constantly evolving. Most widespread but somewhat restrained now have been mass demonstrations of climate activists and their supporters and student protests against atrocities in Gaza. With hotter days ahead and the West continuing to send aid and weapons to Israel, these protests are surely going to continue.
One campaigner called the law’s passage a “ray of hope for Europe’s nature, future generations, and the livelihoods of rural communities.”
Environmental groups celebrated a "historic" victory on Monday as the European Union adopted a law that seeks to restore at least 20% of land and sea habitats by 2030 and 90% to 100% by 2050, following a narrow vote by the European Council that swung on the vote of an Austrian minister who defied conservatives in her own government.
The new law, aimed at reversing catastrophic biodiversity loss, includes a sweeping array of protections for European ecosystems, from forests to wetlands to coral reefs. It also aims to restore organic soils in agricultural ecosystems, with special provisions for grassland pollinators and farmland birds. It was described as the "first ever" E.U. law aimed at nature recovery.
"After years of intense campaigning and many ups and downs, we are jubilant that this law is now reality—this day will go down in history as a turning point for nature and society," World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) EU, one of several organizations that campaigned for the law under a #RestoreNature banner, wrote on social media.
🚨 BREAKING: We have the EU Nature Restoration Law!
Member States have just adopted the game-changing law for Europe's degraded ecosystems
It's a huge win for the EU's nature, citizens & the economy and the people behind the #RestoreNature campaign!
Thank you all 💚 pic.twitter.com/MmZPOQXzWW
— WWF EU (@WWFEU) June 17, 2024
The law's adoption came after what WWF EU called "one of the most tumultuous journeys in the history of E.U. legislation," a two-year-long saga that was dramatic up until its final moments.
The law's final hurdle was cleared by the European Council on Monday when 20 out of the 27 E.U. environment ministers, collectively representing 66% of the bloc's population—just enough to meet the 65% required by qualified majority rules—voted in favor.
The threshold was met when Leonore Gewessler, Austria's environment minister, moved in favor of the law despite opposition from the leaders of her own coalition government. Gewessler is a member of the Austria's Green party, a junior coalition partner to the conservatives, who oppose the new E.U. law.
The law was nearly adopted by the Council in March, but was derailed when Hungary withdrew support.
On Monday, Hungary, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden voted against the law; Belgium abstained. It will enter into force in all member states, each of which will now be required to develop national nature restoration plans.
I want to be like @lgewessler - the most brave Envi Minister ever! Despite facing opposition in her own country - #Austria , she decided to support #NatureRestorationLaw! 👏 We will see if it is enough, but nevertheless this act of courage moved me 💚 pic.twitter.com/Q6IRYFQU8J
— Agata Szafraniuk (@AgataSzafraniuk) June 17, 2024
The E.U. parliament had passed the law in February, following trilogue negotiations last year, after which Council passage is normally a formality. But this law was a political lightning rod that threatened normal institutional processes.
"The failure to adopt the law would not only threaten Europe's highly degraded nature but also send a negative signal about established political processes within European institutions," Špela Bandelj Ruiz, a Greenpeace campaigner, told Common Dreams.
Agribusiness groups had waged a sustained campaign against the law while it was being considered by parliament, and it was one of the targets of the many farmer protests in Europe this year. There was an "unprecedented and absurd disinformation campaign," WWF EU said.
The adoption of the law, which was part of the European Green Deal, a set of environmental laws and regulations put in place by the E.U. over the last five years, comes just before a new EU parliament swears in next month, following elections last week. The new parliament will have fewer green party representatives and more conservatives than before, as well as more members from the far-right.
The nature restoration law will be instrumental in helping the E.U. to meet its commitment under the Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework signed at the 2022 U.N. Biodiversity Conference (COP15), nonprofit groups and E.U. officials said.
"The European delegation will be able to go to the next COP with its head held high," Alain Maron, minister for Climate Transition, Environment, Energy, and Participatory Democracy of the Government of the Brussels-Capital Region, said in an E.U. statement.
COP16 will be held in October in Colombia. Greenpeace said that failure to adopt the new law would have been an "embarrassment" to the E.U.
The law comes following dire reports about the state of nature in the E.U., where more than 80% of habitats are in poor condition. "Biodiversity in the E.U. continues to decline and faces deteriorating trends from changes in land and sea use, overexploitation and unsustainable management practices, as well as water regime modification, pollution, invasive alien species, and climate change," according to a 2020 report by the European Environment Agency.
Bandelj of Greenpeace told Common Dreams that some of the language on agricultural ecosystems in the law had been watered down during negotiations; for example, some of the targets are effort-based rather than results-based, with lawmakers writing "which shall aim to" rather than using more binding language. Bandelj also expressed concern that an "emergency brake" loophole could be applied, suspending implementation of the law in the event of food security concerns.
Still, Bandelj called the law a "ray of hope for Europe's nature, future generations, and the livelihoods of rural communities."
"We were pitted against each other instead of allowing us to band together," said political newcomer Péter Magyar. "We will put an end to this now."
At least tens of thousands of Hungarians took to the streets of Budapest on Saturday to rally against right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and in support of a political newcomer who recently launched a movement that plans to field candidates in European and local elections in June.
Demonstrations against Orbán's increasingly autocratic 14-year rule were sparked by Péter Magyar, a lawyer and former associate of the prime minister who recently released an audio recording exposing corruption in the ruling Fidesz party. Protesters gathered Saturday in Kossuth Square outside Parliament, waving Hungarian flags and chanting "Orbán resign!", "We are not afraid!", and other slogans.
"Step by step, brick by brick, we are taking back our homeland and building a new country, a sovereign, modern, European Hungary," Magyar, 43, told supporters.
"Our elected leaders have incited the Hungarian people against each other for the past 20 years," he added. "Whether the fate of our country went well or we were close to bankruptcy, we were pitted against each other instead of allowing us to band together. We will put an end to this now."
One protester toldAgence France-Presse that "something needed to be done because it's insane how much this government has gotten away with."
Magyar, the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga, last month released an audio recording of his ex-wife discussing an attempt by members of Orbán's inner circle to interfere in a corruption case. Varga and Hungarian President Katalin Novak resigned in February over an unrelated child sex abuse pardoning scandal.
Zsuzsanna Szigeti, a 46-year-old healthcare worker attending Saturday's rally, toldReuters that "we had known that there is corruption, but [Magyar] says it as an insider and confirmed it for us."
Domestic and international critics have accused Orbán of systematically eroding Hungary's democratic institutions, tightening his grip over the country's political system, and consolidating control over much of the media to strengthen Fidesz and its parliamentary supermajority. European Union leaders have condemned Orbán's rule, calling his government a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy." Orbán describes it as "illiberal democracy," while touting its universal appeal to international conservatives, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, the presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee.
European leaders also bristle at Orban's warm personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, although the Hungarian leader did condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and voted along with the rest of the 27-nation E.U. to impose economic sanctions on Moscow.
Human rights have deteriorated markedly during Orbán's tenure, especially for LGBTQ+ people, migrants, women, and Roma. The E.U. has withheld billions of dollars in funding in response.