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'It's the Abortion Ban': Final Iowa Poll Shows Harris Leading Trump 47-44
Rights advocates were energized by the "gold standard" poll results, but called on progressives to continue working to turn out voters.
Nov 03, 2024
Political observers expressed shock Saturday evening as the Des Moines Register released its final poll before Election Day showing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three points.
Harris was supported by 47% of respondents compared to 44% who backed Trump.
The newspaper's poll, conducted by pollster J. Ann Selzer, is widely regarded as the "gold standard" survey of voters in the state and has been recognized as "predicting" numerous election results in Iowa and giving a potential preview of how candidates could fare in other Midwestern states with similar demographics.
Progressive advocates cautioned against placing too much faith in a single poll—even a widely respected one—and urged Harris supporters to continue canvassing, phone-banking, and taking action to defeat Trump and the far-right MAGA movement.
But the unexpected result in a state that hasn't been considered a swing state in this election, and was widely assumed to be a Trump-supporting state, led political observers to look closely at the poll, which showed significant shifts toward Harris among women.
Women aged 65 and older supported Harris over Trump, 63% to 28%, in the poll. Women who identify as political independents also backed her, 57% to 29%.
Overall, women in the state are backing Harris in the poll by a margin of 20 points, according to the survey.
Lyz Lenz, a journalist based in Iowa, said she believed the poll could be linked to one major change in Iowa since the last presidential election: the six-week abortion ban that took effect in July, banning abortion care after fetal cardiac activity can be detected. Similar abortion bans have been blamed for at least four deaths of pregnant women in Texas and Georgia.
"It's the abortion ban," said Lenz. "Women are furious."
Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief and founder of the digital magazine Bolts, said the result could preview losses for state Supreme Court justices who have upheld abortion bans in a number of states, including Iowa.
In 10 states this year, voters will make their voices heard on ballot initiatives regarding the right to abortion care. In traditionally red states including Kansas and Kentucky since Roe was overturned, people have voted to protect the right to obtain an abortion.
"It's the Dobbs election," said Helaine Olen of the American Economic Liberties Project. "The Iowa poll is just the latest proof."
Selzer herself told the BBC that many respondents talked about abortion rights.
"The people who say they're supporting Kamala Harris, the issue they say they're thinking about most is democracy, about half of them saying that's the most important thing," she said. "But then half of that, about 25% roughly, say abortion. And Iowa has one of the strictest abortion laws in place... and that may well have played a part in this."
Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, said it would be "foolish to dismiss [Selzer's] poll," but cautioned election watchers against abandoning "all of [their] prior views about the state of the race."
Dan Pfeiffer, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and co-host of "Pod Save America," said one possible interpretation among several is that "Harris isn't really winning Iowa but the poll is capturing late-stage momentum that bodes well for Wisconsin, Michigan, [and] Pennsylvania."
Advocacy group Indivisible on Sunday morning advised supporters to "send this Iowa poll to all your group chats. Then, sign up to talk to some voters. With your help, we're going to win this thing in two days."
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UAW Rips 'Corporate Greed' of John Deere as Mass Layoffs Follow $43 Billion in Stock Buybacks
"John Deere's reckless layoffs and job cuts are an insult to the working class people of Iowa and Illinois," said the United Auto Workers.
Jul 31, 2024
The United Auto Workers on Tuesday condemned the manufacturing company John Deere over recent mass layoffs at factories in Iowa and Illinois, arguing the company's strong profits, lavish handouts to investors, and exorbitant CEO pay give the lie to claims that the job cuts and outsourcing were necessary.
"John Deere's reckless layoffs and job cuts are an insult to the working-class people of Iowa and Illinois, and the United Auto Workers will fight for justice for our members and communities affected by these moves," the union said in a statement. "Let's be clear: there is no need for Deere to kill good American jobs and outsource them to Mexico for cheap labor. The company is forecasted to make $7 billion in profit this year. CEO John May's total compensation for 2023 was $26.8 million."
The union went on to note that John Deere, which is headquartered in Illinois, has spent more than $43 billion on investor-enriching stock buybacks and dividends over the past 20 years, leaving "no question that there is enough profit to go around" and that the company "can afford to keep good jobs in Iowa and Illinois."
"So why are they choosing not to? Because Deere's corporate greed means more to them than the lives of working-class people in Ankeny, Waterloo, Ottumwa, or Dubuque. And our government lets them get away with it, with broken trade laws that don't protect workers on either side of the border," the union said. "When a company is doing as well as Deere, on the hard work of those UAW members who make the product that generates those profits, there is absolutely no reason for job cuts, layoffs, outsourcing, or cutbacks."
The company has spent $43.6 billion on stock buybacks and dividends over the past two decades. There is no question that there is enough profit to go around, and Deere can afford to keep good jobs in Iowa and Illinois.
— UAW (@UAW) July 30, 2024
The UAW represents more than 10,000 John Deere employees across the United States and, in 2021, held a
five-week strike against the company over inadequate wages and benefits.
In recent weeks, John Deere has laid off an estimated 1,500 U.S. workers as part of what the company has described as a broader effort to "control costs." The Guardian's Michael Sainato noted last month that the company reported "a profit of over $10 billion in fiscal year 2023" and spent more than $7.2 billion on stock buybacks.
The UAW's statement came a day after John Deere announced it would lay off around 300 salaried employees at its headquarters in Moline, Illinois.
"The batch of layoffs comes after the tractor giant said earlier this month it would lay off nearly 600 workers across two factories in Iowa and one in Moline," The Chicago Tribunereported.
Given that John Deere is a major beneficiary of federal contracts and subsidies, U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris—the presumptive Democratic nominee—have faced calls to act in response to the company's mass layoffs and stock buybacks.
"Corporations that do business with the federal government aren't going to like it and will surely cry 'socialism!'" Les Leopold, executive director of the Labor Institute, wrote in an op-ed for Common Dreams last week. "But if the Democrats don’t find a way to intervene to stop the needless mass layoffs that are happening right now, there's a good chance Trump/Vance might fill the void."
As the White House remains quiet on the issue, the UAW said it is doing all it can to "minimize the impacts of these cuts and layoffs for our members at Deere and pushing the company to do right by our members, their families, and their communities."
"We will keep pushing for justice at Deere and keep letting corporate America know that the working class will not accept the scraps while the CEOs and shareholders get richer and richer," the union added.
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Iowa's Six-Week Abortion Ban Called 'Cruel Future' GOP Wants for Entire Nation
Denouncing "extremist Republicans," EMILY's List says the new state law exemplifies why voters "have to stop them at the ballot box this November."
Jul 29, 2024
As Iowa's six-week abortion ban took effect on Monday after a June ruling by the state Supreme Court, reproductive rights advocates pointed to the law as the latest proof of the importance of opposing anti-choice Republicans in the November elections.
"Today, people in Iowa woke up to the unfortunate reality that their reproductive rights have been ripped away," said NextGen America. "They're already fleeing the state for care. In November, abortion is on the ballot. Vote on it."
Also blasting "Iowa's near-total draconian abortion ban," EMILY's List warned: "This is the cruel future that extremist Republicans want for our country. We have to stop them at the ballot box this November."
Reproductive freedom has been a key issue at all levels of U.S. politics this election cycle. President Joe Biden made abortion rights a top focus of his 2024 campaign, which Vice President Kamala Harris has continued since he dropped out and she became the presumed Democratic nominee to face former Republican President Donald Trump this fall.
Although Trump has at times tried to distance himself from state legislators' recent attacks on reproductive rights, he has also bragged about appointing half of the U.S. Supreme Court justices who reversedRoe v. Wade—and both his selection of his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), and the latest Republican Party platform have stoked fresh fears about the GOP's plans for abortion at the national level.
Harris on Monday openly blamed the Republican presidential candidate for the new state ban, saying on social media: "This morning, more than 1.5 million women in Iowa woke up with fewer rights than they had last night because of another Trump abortion ban. In November, we will stop Trump's extreme abortion bans at the ballot box."
The vice president also shared a video message and her campaign on Monday launched a "Fight for Reproductive Freedom" week of action, which features dozens of planned events across battleground states.
More than 1 in 3 women of reproductive age in America now live in a state with a Trump abortion ban.
When I am President of the United States, I will sign a law restoring and protecting reproductive freedom in every state. pic.twitter.com/ka8f8zI145
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) July 29, 2024
Iowa's new law prohibits most abortion care after cardiac activity can be detected—supporters of such bans use the medically misleading term "fetal heartbeat"—which is usually around six weeks, before many people know they are pregnant. The ban has limited exceptions that critics warn are ineffective.
The state's Republican lawmakers initially passed a similar ban in 2018, though reproductive rights advocates won their legal battle to block it. However, after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe with the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling in 2022, Iowa legislators last year tried to revive the old ban before ultimately passing the one that took effect Monday.
Planned Parenthood Federation of America and the ACLU of Iowa challenged the new ban on behalf of a Planned Parenthood North Central States subsidiary, the Emma Goldman Clinic, and Dr. Sarah Traxler, but the Iowa Supreme Court upheld it 4-3.
"To say the last few weeks have been hard is an understatement," Kristina Remus, a Planned Parenthood patient services associate, toldThe 19th on Friday. "People are confused and seeking clarification. And a lot of patients are unaware that there is a law banning abortion at about six weeks before many people know that they're pregnant set to take effect so soon on Monday. We are having extremely difficult conversations in my department with patients."
Planned Parenthood Action said on social media Monday: "Iowa's six-week ban marks the 22nd state that has banned some or all abortions. We know how dangerous this ban will be for Iowans, but we will not stop fighting for your right to abortion care."
Iowa Abortion Access Fund posted a similar message, saying: "We are heartbroken by this ban. It will affect thousands of Iowans but, as all abortion bans do, it will disproportionately affect those in marginalized communities, including communities of color, those in the LGBTQ community, lower-income individuals, and individuals living in rural areas."
"While this ban is disheartening, please know we are still here for you. We have partnered with the Chicago Abortion Fund (CAF) to provide comprehensive, wraparound support for Iowans in need of abortion care," the group continued, sharing the Illinois helpline. "Despite this gross government overreach, we will continue to fundraise. We will continue to advocate for abortion access and reproductive freedom for all. And we will continue to be here for you."
Illinois has seen a flood of "healthcare refugees" as surrounding states have tightened abortion restrictions in the wake of Dobbs. Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker, who is on the short list of Harris' potential vice presidential candidate picks, declared Monday that "here in Illinois, we will welcome our Iowan neighbors for reproductive freedom and whatever care they need. Please know—as you work to maneuver around this dangerous and unjust law—we are here for you."
In neighboring Wisconsin, there is also an ongoing battle over abortion rights. The state Supreme Court has agreed to take up two related cases, and in the meantime, Planned Parenthood has resumed providing abortion care in its clinics there. Like Harris, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers on Monday also blamed Trump and his "radical agenda" for Iowa's new law, highlighting that the Republican "promised to overturn Roe v. Wade, and called abortion bans like Iowa's 'beautiful.'"
"We will continue fighting to protect reproductive freedom in Wisconsin, but the only way to stop Donald Trump and JD Vance, Project 2025, and their plan to ban abortion in all 50 states is to elect Kamala Harris," Evers argued. "Kamala Harris will sign a federal law to restore reproductive freedom and make sure every woman in America has access to the reproductive healthcare they need and deserve."
While passing federal pro-choice legislation would almost certainly require Democrats to control not only the White House but also both chambers of Congress, the Democratic National Committee also directed attention to the presidential contest, with DNC spokesperson Stephanie Justice saying Monday that "today is a dark day for Iowa, the Midwest, and the country, and if Trump wins election again, this will be a harbinger of what's to come for the entire nation."
"Trump's Project 2025 will ban abortion nationwide and punish women who seek reproductive care," Justice added. "However, this does not have to be our future. Women in Iowa and across the nation are fed up and will rise up and vote against Donald Trump and JD Vance's plan to rip away our reproductive rights."
Meanwhile, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) interim communications director Sam Paisley on Monday stressed the importance of electing supporters of reproductive freedom to state offices.
"Iowa Republicans have officially made their state one of the most extreme when it comes to restricting reproductive freedom, flying in the face of the majority of Iowans who support abortion access," Paisely said. "Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, GOP state legislatures have made these bans a top priority, and they show no sign of letting up."
"The time is now for Democrats to turn their attention to state legislatures where Republicans are leveraging power to pass an extreme agenda that rips up fundamental freedoms," she added. "The DLCC will continue to hold the GOP in the states accountable as they compromise the healthcare of their constituents."
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