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"If there are a lot of details still to be filled in," wrote one analyst, "the theme of the GOP's healthcare agenda is clear: cuts."
Having secured control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress and the White House starting in January, Republicans are making no secret of their intention to pursue sweeping healthcare cuts that would raise costs and imperil insurance coverage for millions of people across the country.
Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), chairman of the House Budget Committee, told reporters earlier this week that the GOP is looking to use the filibuster-evading reconciliation process to pursue cuts to "mandatory programs"—a category that includes Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, noted in response to Arrington's comments that Republicans attempted to cut both Medicaid and Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits that help enrollees afford health insurance.
The Republican Study Committee, of which Arrington is a member, proposed eliminating the ACA tax credits in its 2025 budget proposal—a move that could result in around 4 million people losing insurance.
The tax credits are set to expire next year, meaning Republicans could just do nothing and allow them to lapse.
Last time Republicans had a federal trifecta, they tried and failed to fully repeal the ACA—an effort that sparked a
wave of civil disobedience on Capitol Hill.
Both President-elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on the campaign trail that they're looking to try again.
"We're going to replace it," Trump said during his lone debate with Vice President Kamala Harris in September—while admitting that he did not have a fully formed alternative plan.
Johnson, for his part, said during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania last month that "healthcare reform's going to be a big part of the agenda." When a voter posed the question, "No Obamacare?" Johnson replied in the affirmative, "No Obamacare."
"The ACA is so deeply ingrained, we need massive reform to make this work," he added, "and we've got a lot of ideas on how to do that."
Sarah Lueck and Allison Orris of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
wrote Wednesday that Trump's return to the White House and the GOP's capture of both chambers of Congress poses "big risks to people's ability to access and afford health coverage in Medicaid and the marketplaces."
"While Republicans have moved away from talking about their plans for changing health coverage in the U.S. as 'repeal,'" Lueck and Orris added, "Trump's first term and Republicans' recently released policy agendas suggest they may pursue policies that would have much the same result: higher costs for people, reduced access to care for vulnerable groups, and more people who are uninsured."
"Just as a grassroots movement of Americans around the country succeeded in saving the Affordable Care Act during Trump's first term, we can save Social Security and Medicare."
Even if Republicans don't succeed at enacting major legislative changes to the nation's healthcare system, Trump will still have the power to do significant damage unilaterally. Lueck and Orris noted that the first Trump administration "took numerous administrative steps that made it harder for eligible people to get coverage" and weakened consumer protections, from adding new paperwork requirements to the Medicaid enrollment process to expanding so-called "junk" insurance plans.
Vice President-elect JD Vance also suggested during the 2024 campaign that a second Trump administration could seek to roll back protections for people with preexisting conditions.
"If there are a lot of details still to be filled in, the theme of the GOP's healthcare agenda is clear: cuts," Vox's Dylan Scott wrote days before the November 5 election. "Cutting regulations. Cutting spending."
Stephanie Armour of KFF Health Newswrote following Trump's victory that his second term "will likely bring changes that scale back the nation's public health insurance programs—increasing the uninsured rate, while imposing new barriers to abortion and other reproductive care."
Medicaid is particularly vulnerable, Armour noted, with Trump and the Republican Party potentially set to pursue "the imposition of work requirements on beneficiaries in some states" and changes to how the program is funded.
"Now, the federal government pays states a variable percentage of program costs," Armour explained. "Conservatives have long sought to cap the federal allotments to states, which critics say would lead to draconian cuts."
As for Medicare, the Project 2025 agenda authored by many former members of Trump's first administration calls for making privatized Medicare Advantage plans the default enrollment option for the nation's seniors—a change that advocates say would pose an existential threat to traditional Medicare.
"Trump and Republicans will try to cut our earned benefits," Alex Lawson, executive director of the progressive advocacy group Social Security Works, warned in an op-ed for Common Dreams on Wednesday. "But just as a grassroots movement of Americans around the country succeeded in saving the Affordable Care Act during Trump's first term, we can save Social Security and Medicare."
Let there be no doubt: Trump and the Republicans will try to cut our earned benefits. But just as a grassroots movement around the country succeeded in saving the Affordable Care Act during Trump’s first term, we can save Social Security and Medicare.
No one voted to cut Social Security. No one voted to cut Medicare. And no one voted for higher drug prices.
Donald Trump ran on a promise to protect Social Security and Medicare. Based on Trump’s long record of working to cut and undermine our earned benefits, we don’t trust that promise for one second. But we plan to make him keep it.
There’s a good reason Trump didn’t campaign on cutting Social Security: Ninety-two percent of Americans think that’s a terrible idea.
What will Trump do once he’s actually in the White House? During his first term, he tried to cut Social Security every single year. He appointed an unqualified crony, Andrew Saul, to head the Social Security Administration. And he surrounded himself with advisors who had long records of working to cut and privatize Social Security.
Now, Trump has a new advisor, Elon Musk. He just put Musk in charge of a commission to slash $2 trillion of federal spending. That is essentially impossible without cutting Social Security, Medicare, and/or Medicaid. Indeed, incoming Vice President JD Vance has specifically said that Musk will target Social Security.
We are never going to stop fighting to protect and expand Social Security.
Musk is the wealthiest man in the world. It’s no surprise that Musk and his fellow billionaires want to cut our earned benefits rather than pay their fair share in taxes.
Trump’s top priority is to extend the tax cuts he gave the ultra-wealthy in his first term. Then, Republicans will turn around and claim that we “can’t afford” Social Security and Medicare.
Republicans in Congress have already telegraphed what those cuts could look like. The Republican Study Committee (RSC), a caucus that counts over 80 percent of House Republicans as members, released a budget proposal earlier this year that makes massive cuts to Social Security. That includes raising the retirement age to 69, and decimating benefits for the middle class.
The RSC budget would also repeal Medicare’s power to negotiate lower drug prices. That means seniors and people with disabilities would have to turn over more of their hard-earned Social Security checks to Big Pharma.
In case anyone doubted that Republicans are serious about passing these cuts into law, House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (who angrily chased me down the street last year after I confronted him about his support for Social Security cuts) just pledged to cut health care benefits through reconciliation—meaning that Republicans would only need 50 votes in the Senate.
Trump and Republicans will try to cut our earned benefits. But just as a grassroots movement of Americans around the country succeeded in saving the Affordable Care Act during Trump’s first term, we can save Social Security and Medicare.
Musk is the wealthiest man in the world. It’s no surprise that Musk and his fellow billionaires want to cut our earned benefits rather than pay their fair share in taxes.
Here’s how:
We are never going to stop fighting to protect and expand Social Security. Social Security has stood strong for nearly a century. It has survived wars, depressions, and pandemics. And with your help, it will survive Donald Trump.
"MAGA House Republicans are demonstrating their hostility to working Americans and retirees," said one critic.
Congressional Democrats and other defenders of Social Security and Medicare responded with alarm after U.S. House Budget Committee Republicans on Thursday advanced a sweeping resolution that includes support for a fiscal commission intended to gut the crucial programs.
While Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) celebrated the committee's passage of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2025, Ranking Member Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) declared that "today, we saw just how backward and extreme House Republicans' vision for the future really is."
"We saw just how willing Republicans are to sell out American families in order to continue giving trillions in tax cuts to price gouging corporations and the ultrarich," Boyle said. "And we saw just how hellbent they are on gutting critical programs—raising the cost of living and pushing the middle class out of reach for hardworking families."
"Budget Committee Democrats know who we're fighting for. That's why we proposed amendments that would have protected Social Security and Medicare, prevented Republicans from raising healthcare costs, and defended American families against the devastating cuts in this budget resolution," he continued. "By voting for this dangerous budget and by rejecting our amendments today, committee Republicans have made it clear who they're fighting for—the wealthy and the well-connected."
"The commission is designed to slash vital earned benefits through a fast-track, closed-door process, intended to allow Republicans to avoid political accountability."
The committee vote came as President Joe Biden prepared to deliver his third State of the Union speech at 9:00 pm ET. The Democrat is a fierce critic of the GOP's proposed "death panel," as the White House and other opponents call the commission. He is seeking reelection in November and is expected to face former Republican President Donald Trump.
"After hearing Budget Committee Republicans tell us how they'll take us backward, I look forward to hearing President Biden tell us how he'll keep America moving forward at the State of the Union tonight," said Boyle. The congressman was not alone in referencing the Thursday night address in remarks about the GOP attack on key programs.
Social Security Works president Nancy Altman said that "at tonight's State of the Union, President Joe Biden has a golden opportunity to slam the Trump-Arrington death panel. In addition, Biden should renew his promise to protect and expand Social Security—and pay for it by taxing the ultrarich. Then the American people will know which party stands with them and which party stands with the billionaire class."
"The commission is designed to slash vital earned benefits through a fast-track, closed-door process, intended to allow Republicans to avoid political accountability," Altman stressed. "Every Republican who voted for this budget voted to cut Social Security and Medicare."
"This markup comes two days after Donald Trump enthusiastically endorsed Chairman Arrington," she noted. "Arrington is a fervent supporter of the death panel commission, and wants to attach it to must-pass government spending bills. By endorsing Arrington, Trump has endorsed the Social Security death panel."
Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, also took aim at not only the committee's Republicans but also Trump, referencing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that he signed into law in 2017.
"MAGA House Republicans are demonstrating their hostility to working Americans and retirees via their fiscal year 2025 budget resolution," he said. "The MAGA budget includes trillions of dollars in cuts to domestic spending while extending the Trump/GOP tax giveaways to the wealthy and profitable corporations that swelled the debt."
Richtman called the commission "equally troubling," adding that "we fiercely oppose such a commission as a scheme for cutting seniors' earned benefits while shielding members of Congress from accountability."
"Social Security and Medicare Part A do not contribute to the debt. Seniors' earned benefits should be protected from a commission that would fast-track benefit cuts," he argued. "If MAGA Republicans really want to reduce the debt, they should start by letting the Trump tax cuts expire. Current and future seniors on fixed incomes should not be punished for the GOP's fiscal recklessness."