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'The Situation Is Scary': Global Economic Chaos as Trump’s Iran War Sends Markets Diving
"To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario," said one economic analyst. "It was an unthinkable scenario."
Mar 09, 2026
President Donald Trump's unprovoked and unconstitutional war against Iran is sending shockwaves across the global economy in the form of skyrocketing oil prices and diving financial markets.
The prices of both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures on Monday surged past $100 per barrel, as countries across the Middle East announced production cuts in the wake of chaos and destruction caused by the Iran war.
The impact of the price surge on the US stock market was immediate, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened Monday trading down by more than 600 points, while the Nasdaq dropped by 300 points.
According to a Monday report from the Wall Street Journal, both Iraq and Kuwait have announced oil production curbs because they have been unable to ship their supply through the Strait of Hormuz and have thus run out of space to store excess petroleum.
JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva noted to the Journal that this is the first time in recorded history that the Strait of Hormuz has ever been completely closed off for shipping, and warned the economic consequences would be severe.
"To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario," Kaneva said of the strait's closing. "It was an unthinkable scenario."
The Journal wrote that Trump's decision to launch a war with Iran has already sparked "the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s," which is now "threatening the global economy."
Petroleum industry analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in a Monday analysis that US drivers should expect to feel the impact of this oil shock in the coming days.
"Gasoline prices in many states could climb another 20 to 50 cents per gallon this week, with price-cycling markets potentially seeing increases as early as today," De Haan projected. "Diesel may rise even more sharply, with increases of 35 to 75 cents per gallon possible as global distillate markets react."
In a Monday analysis posted on his Substack page, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman dove into the logistics of stopping and restarting oil production, and argued that the impact of the strait's closure will grow significantly as time goes on.
"As the Strait remains closed, producers are shutting down, and this isn’t like turning off a tap that can be quickly restarted," Krugman explained. "There’s apparently a real nonlinearity here: a two-week closure of the Strait has much more than twice the adverse impact on global oil supply as a one-week closure. If this goes on for multiple weeks... oil prices, which retreated slightly off their highs early this morning, could go much higher."
Krugman said that the shock was not yet bad enough to make an economic crisis inevitable because the US is much less dependent on oil than it was in the 1970s.
Nonetheless, Krugman cautioned, "the situation is scary."
Punchbowl News reported on Monday that the politics of the Iran war "have to worry" incumbent Republicans who were already in real danger of losing their majority in the US House of Representatives even before Trump launched an illegal war.
"With the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices have soared to more than $100 per barrel (from just under $70 per barrel 10 days ago)," wrote Punchbowl News. "There’s been a huge spike in gas prices nationally."
The report added that Trump has not been helping his party by expressing indifference bordering on hostility to Americans' concerns about how his war will impact their personal finances.
"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace," Trump wrote in a Sunday Truth Social post. "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"
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Lame-Duck Trump's "Middle East Arms Bonanza" Continues With Approval of $290 Million Weapons Sale to Saudi Regime
Additional arms deals this week include $4 billion in helicopters to Kuwait, $169 million in military equipment to Egypt, and $65 million in drones and fighter jets to UAE.
Dec 29, 2020
Despite opposition from the public and some members of Congress, the Trump administration in its waning days is rushing through weapons sales to a handful of Middle East nations with records of human rights abuses, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose U.S.-backed blockades and airstrikes have exacerbated civilian suffering and death in Yemen's ongoing civil war.
The U.S. State Department on Tuesday announced a flurry of deals, including $290 million in Boeing-made, precision-guided bombs to Saudi Arabia, $65 million in drones and fighter jets to the UAE, $169 million in military equipment to Egypt, and $4 billion in helicopters to Kuwait.
"President Trump's lame duck Middle East arms bonanza continues," said William Hartung, the director of the arms and security program at the Center of International Policy. "Selling more bombs to Saudi Arabia given its history of indiscriminate airstrikes that have killed thousands of civilians in Yemen should be a non-starter."
While the actions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have come under increased scrutiny as a result of the Saudi-led assault on Yemen, Hartung also encouraged Congress and the incoming Biden administration to "review the sale of equipment to Egypt in light of its brutal and counterproductive counter-terror campaign in the Sinai, which has involved severe human rights abuses, the killing of innocent civilians, and the driving of thousands of families from their homes."
As The Guardian reported Wednesday, President-elect Joe Biden's transition team has complained that "it is not being properly briefed by the Pentagon on ongoing military operations, as is customary for an incoming administration in the weeks preceding inauguration, on January 20."
In an effort to impede the transfer of at least some weapons, the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs is reportedly planning to file a lawsuit Wednesday against Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over the proposed deal with the UAE.
The filing will claim the Trump administration has failed to meet the legal requirements of the Arms Export Control Act. For the deal to proceed, there must be "a full rationale for the sale and a consideration of the impact on U.S. security and world peace," The New Arab reported Wednesday. "The lawsuit also cites the UAE's actions in the Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen."
Although the U.S. Senate in early December failed to block President Donald Trump's $23 billion weapons deal with the UAE, "the lawsuit calls for an injunction to stop the sale," The Guardian reported.
The Trump administration has attempted to justify selling arms to the UAE, The Guardian noted, by saying the weapons allow the country "to deter increasing Iranian aggressive behavior and threats."
According to a press release (pdf) issued Tuesday by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the arms deal with Saudi Arabia "will support U.S. foreign policy and national security objectives by helping to improve the security of a friendly country that continues to be an important force for political stability and economic growth in the Middle East."
Critics of the weapons sales, however, say the deals will worsen human rights violations and destabilize the region.
As The Hill reported, "Tuesday's notice kicks off a 30-day clock during which lawmakers can block the sale if they choose to."
"If Congress can't block it," Hartung said, "the Biden administration should do so when it takes office."
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An American General Probably Thinks- "Thanks Trump, for Putting a Target on My Back!"
In 2017, Trump gave the CIA the authority to again use assassin drones after it had been withdrawn by the Obama administration.
Jan 04, 2020
I suspect all U.S. Generals in the Middle East are thinking "Thanks Trump, for putting a target on my back!" after Iranian Major General Qassam Soliemani, the head of the Quds Revolutionary Forces, was assassinated outside of Baghdad's international airport by U.S. drone on the direct orders of President Trump.
As easy as it was for an American drone to blow up two vehicles in Soliemani's convoy coming from the airport, it will not be difficult for Iranian forces to retaliate by targeting senior U.S. military and diplomatic officials. Senate Majority leader Mitchell McConnell's comment that "our prayers are with U.S. diplomats and military in the region" is small consolation to those who will no doubt feel the brunt of Iranian ire over the assassination of one of the most popular leaders in Iran.
Should Wikileaks ever have another Chelsea Manning or Ed Snowden that will provide the world with documents that reveal the Trump administration's deliberations on the decision to cataclysmically escalate the confrontation with Iran, a country of 80 million that has been under U.S. sanctions since the 1979 revolutionary overthrow of the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran, we will finally find out who in the administration supported the decision and who was against it.
My guess is that the U.S. military was against the assassination knowing that U.S. military forces will get the brunt of Iranian retaliation. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said, "Damn right, this puts our troops at risk." I think he realizes that he himself would be one of the first retaliatory targets.
I would guess that the CIA was for the assassination, the CIA's whose officials can generally hide from public view. And it probably was a CIA drone, not a U.S. military drone that fired the missiles that assassinated Soleimani. In 2017, Trump gave the CIA the authority to again use assassin drones after it had been withdrawn by the Obama administration.
No matter who was for and against the assassination, when you look for targets for retaliation, there are many: oil fields in Saudi Arabia, oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, big US military installations in Qatar (Central Command forward), Bahrain (5th fleet) and Djibouti (naval and drone bases)
Here are 36 bases with US Military forces in 14 countries that are neighbors with Iran. Additionally, there is a U.S. Embassy in each of those 14 countries as well as in Lebanon that could be targets for retribution for the assassination of General Soleimani.
Afghanistan
Sharing its western border with Iran is Afghanistan. There are approximately 14,000 US military in Afghanistan and reportedly twice as many civilian contractors. There are 17,000 NATO troops from 39 countries in Afghanistan. There are six active U.S. military bases. The three major bases are listed below.
Bagram Air Base
- Largest US military base in Afghanistan with US Army, Marines, Navy and Air Force troops located there. Medical and logistics facilities are located here as well as various types of aircraft and helicopters.
Shindand Air Base in Heart Province
- A shared base with US and NATO forces
Kandahar International Airport
- Joint base with NATO forces
Bahrain
There are over 7,000 U.S. military personnel based in Bahrain, and the U.S. has maintained a naval presence in the country since 1948. The U.S. 5th fleet is based in Bahrain and patrols an area of responsibility covering the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Bab al Mandeb.
Naval Support Activity Bahrain
- U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.
- Headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet.
- Close to Khalifa Bin Salman port, which is capable of berthing U.S. aircraft carriers. The U.S. has spent $580 million between 2010-2017 on expansion of the facility, and a total of $2 billion since establishing a presence. National Security Strategy Naval Support Activity Bahrain.
Shaikh Isa Air Base
- Recently improved with $45 million in U.S. funding. Hosts F-16s, F/A-18s, and P-3 aircraft.
- 12,467 ft runway. Muharraq Air Base (Navy)
- The Combined Task Force 53 aviation unit is based in Bahrain.
Part of Bahrain International Airport.
- In 2011, saw a monthly average of 1,600 tons of cargo and mail, and 3000 personnel in transit.
Djibouti
U.S. military presence in Djibouti was established in 2003 with a formal agreement that provides access to the airport through Camp Lemonnier and the port facilities. Since that time, Djibouti has hosted the only combat-capable U.S. military base in Africa, until the construction of a U.S. drone base in Niger.
Camp Lemonnier
- Formerly a French Foreign Legion base.
- Hosts 4,000 U.S. troops. Tasked with fighting the Somalia-based Al Shabaab and conducting counter-terror operations in Somalia.
- Considered a Navy facility shares a runway with Djibouti-Ambouli International Airport.
- 10,335 ft runway.
- Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa operates out of Lemonnier.
- Operations using manned and unmanned aerial vehicles have been based out of Lemonnier, including missions into Yemen.
- China recently opened its first overseas military base adjacent to the Doraleh Port, and very close to Camp Lemonnier. It is believed China will deploy around 1,000 personnel. In May 2017, China began constructing a 330+ meter pier to support its naval vessels.
Egypt
The U.S. military does not maintain combat basing in Egypt, despite the historically robust military cooperation between the countries since the conclusion of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. The only U.S. military facility in Egypt conducts medical research.
Naval Medical Research Unit Three (NAMRU-3)
- Based in Cairo.
- Facilities for conducting infections disease research and prevention.
- Runs syndrome, pathogen, and vector surveillance networks in Egypt and the region.
- Largest DoD overseas laboratory with biosafety level 3 bio-containment space.
Iraq
Since the withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2011, the U.S. has not maintained permanent facilities in Iraq. As the U.S. presence in Iraq has evolved during the conduct of Operation Inherent Resolve, the primary U.S. presence appears to be located at Al Asad Air Base.
Al Asad Air Base
- Task Force Lion (aka Task Force Al Asad) operates out of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq's western Anbar Province. Task Force Lion advises, assists and "enables" the Iraqi military. Has elements of four of the armed services.
- Colloquially known as "Camp Cupcake" during the Iraq war, due to the prominent amenities. Many of these amenities are no longer available.
- Two 13,124 foot runways.
- Some Danish military personnel part of training mission for the Iraqi Security Forces.
Israel
The U.S. has long maintained a security relationship with Israel, and in recent years has partnered to develop systems like the Iron Dome air defense system. Ships of the U.S. 6th fleet frequently make port visits to Haifa, but the building of U.S. facilities in Israel is new. U.S. deployments to Israel are small and intended to support anti-ballistic missile emplacements.
Dimona Radar Facility
- AN/TPY-2 Radar system, a type of X-Band Radar.
- Used to spot potential incoming ballistic missiles from Iran.
Mashabim Air Base / Bisl'a Aerial Defense School
- Run by EUCOM.
- Contains a Living Facility which houses 40 soldiers serving the missile defense mission.
Jordan
The U.S. presence in Jordan has expanded with the evolution of Operation Inherent Resolve against ISIS, with forces located at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. Publicly available commercial satellite imagery indicates the presence of potential U.S. reaper drones at other bases in Jordan, but this is not acknowledged by the United States. U.S. military cooperation with Jordan is close. Most recently, U.S. troops participated in the "Eager Lion" exercises, involving several thousand U.S. Marines training alongside Jordanian troops.
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Azraq)
- U.S. allocated $143 million for upgrades and expansion in 2018.
- The pace of operations against ISIS has strained physical capacity of the base. Limited ramp space restricts operations, and facilities for handling cargo and personnel are limited as well.
- Hosts multiple coalition partners, including Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
- Two runways, 9,015 ft and 9,777 ft.
Kuwait
The U.S. has maintained a Defense Cooperation Agreement with Kuwait since 1991 Persian Gulf War. As such, Kuwait holds major non-NATO U.S. ally status. Since 2011, troops garrisoned in Kuwait are primarily intended to support Operation Spartan Shield, a mission to "deter regional aggression and stabilize countries within the region." The military currently maintains a force of 2,200 MRAPs in Kuwait.
Ali Al Salem Air Base
- Two 9,805 ft runways.
- 386th Air Expeditionary Wing is a primary occupant, operating C-17 and C-130 cargo aircraft.
- Base operates as a way station for troops.
Camp Arifjan
- Serves as U.S. HQ in Kuwait.
- Built by the Kuwaiti government at a cost of $200 million to replace temporary basing structure originally used since the Gulf War.
- Features a Joint Military Mail Terminal.
Camp Buehring
- Broke ground on $3.7 million living facilities expansion in 2017.
- Has precision approach radar capability, allowing for low visibility landings.
- 5,215 ft runway.
Camp Patriot
- U.S. Army Facility.
- Shares space with Kuwait Naval Base.
- For the 2003 Iraq invasion, Navy Seabees constructed a temporary pier, known as an elevated causeway system modular (ELCAS/M), to support the offloading of equipment.
Oman
The U.S. maintains an ability to use Omani bases through the Oman Facilities Access Agreement, originally signed in 1980, and most recently renewed in 2010. This accord made Oman the first country among the Persian Gulf States to explicitly partner militarily with the U.S. According to the agreement, the U.S. can request access to these facilities in advance for a specified purpose. Oman has allowed 5,000 aircraft overflights, 600 landings, and 80 port calls annually. During the early stages of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan (in late 2001), the U.S. relied considerably on Omani air bases. However, in subsequent years, U.S. presence in Oman has dwindled significantly.
Muscat International Airport
- Formerly known as Seeb Air Base.
- Usable under the Facilities Access Agreement.
- Two runways recently extended to 13,123 ft.
- War reserve materiel stored at this location.
RAFO Thumrait
- 13,123 foot runway.
- War reserve material stored at this location.
Al-Musannah Air Base
- Airlift apron designed for C-5 and C-130 aircraft.
- War reserve materiel stored at this location.
Port of Duqm
- The recently opened British-Omani Duqm Naval Dockyard was designed with the intent of hosting ships from friendly nations for repair and maintenance.
- Recently expanded facilities at Duqm have allowed for the repair and maintenance of U.S. Navy vessels.
- Capable of supporting U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines.
- Duqm is attracting the interest of many countries, including India, Iran, the U.K., the U.S., and China.
Port of Salalah
- Largest port in Oman.
- The Defense Logistics Agency operated a recently opened material processing center providing material transshipment, short-term storage and delivery functions for visiting U.S. Navy vessels and other U.S. customers in the U.S. Central Command AOR.
Qatar
Qatar hosts approximately 10,000 U.S. service personnel, mostly at Al Udeid Air Base. Since the 1990s, Qatari base construction strategy has been deliberately intended to attract the United States to its facilities. As the U.S. withdrew the majority of its forces from Saudi Arabia in 2003 following the initial invasion of Iraq, basing in Qatar allowed for the permanent redeployment of those assets. The U.S. has relied heavily on its basing in Qatar to conduct the counter-ISIS military mission, Operation Inherent Resolve.
Al Udeid Air Base
- Biggest U.S. base in the Middle East.
- Home to U.S. Combined Air Operations Center, U.S. Air Forces Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command Central Forward, and CENTCOM Forward HQ.
- Built in 1996 at a cost of $1 billion before Qatar had an air force and a total of $4 billion to fund the base since.
- Qatar is currently expanding the base with 200 additional housing units.
- The existence of the Al Udeid air base allowed for the relocation of U.S. assets previously stationed at Prince Sultan Airbase, Saudi Arabia in 2003. This move addressed a common grievance against the U.S. amongst Muslim populations.
- Two 12,000+ foot runways,78 capable of supporting all aircraft in the U.S. arsenal.
Camp As Sayliyah
- An Army operated facility that can store joint equipment.
- Serves as a prepositioning point for one brigade's worth of armored equipment.
- Features a large number of climate-controlled warehouse units.
- Also featured a Stryker Damage Repair facility which repaired hundreds of Stryker vehicles damaged in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan until the repair facility's closure in 2014.
Saudi Arabia
The U.S. withdrew the vast majority of its forces in 2003, as the invasion of Iraq eliminated the need for a troop presence in Saudi Arabia. Today, many of the American military personnel still in Saudi Arabia are part of the U.S. Military Training Mission, and do not provide an operational combat capability. Undoubtedly, USMTM personnel travel and work at different Saudi bases to complete their mission, but the primary "basing" point is Eskan Village near Riyadh.
Eskan Village
- Features fully furnished villas for U.S. personnel.
- Serves as a housing facility for U.S. military personnel, primarily those assigned to the U.S. Military Training Mission.
- Also hosts Army personnel of the Saudi Arabian National Guard Modernization Program and Ministry of the Interior Military Assistance Group.
- Base not intended for combat operations. Base security provided by 341st Military Police Company.
Syria
The U.S. withdrew from its 22 bases in Syria in October 2019 but has returned to six of them in northeast Syria. U.S. forces in Syria are primarily guarding Syrian oil facilities.
Turkey
Turkey is the only NATO member in the Middle East region.
Incirlik Air Base
- U.S. stores upwards of 50 B-61 nuclear gravity bombs at Incirlik.
- Construction on the base started by the U.S. in 1951.
- Base has been used heavily for operations against ISIS, but U.S. was denied sortie rights for the 2003 Iraq invasion.
- 10,000 foot runway.
- In the wake of the 2016 coup attempt, the Turkish Government cut power to the air base for several days and closed the airspace around the base.
- Approximately 2,500 U.S. military personnel based at Incirlik.
Izmir Air Station
- Located adjacent to Cigli air base, a Turkish-run base.
- Home of 425th Air Base squadron, a detachment of the 39th Air Base Wing out of Incirlik Air Base.
- Administers the Cigli AB Loan Agreement.
- Supports numerous U.S./NATO missions in the Izmir Area, including NATO Allied Land Command Headquarters.
United Arab Emirates
The U.S. maintains approximately 5,000 personnel in the UAE under a defense cooperation agreement. The security relationship between the U.S. and UAE is robust, and has featured combat operations in Afghanistan in which UAE aircraft provided close air support to American troops on the ground.
Al Dhafra Air Base
- U.S. presence at this base not publicly acknowledged until 2017.
- Host the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, including such aircraft as the F-22 Raptor, KC-10, RQ-4 Global Hawk, E-3 Sentry, and U-2 Dragon Lady.
- Two 12,012 foot runways.
- An estimated 3,500 U.S. personnel stationed in 2015,100 upwards of 3,800 in 2016.
- Busiest U.S. base in the world for surveillance flights.
- Hosts a joint Air Warfare Center used by the U.S. to train personnel from multiple countries in aspects of combat and interoperable missions.
Port of Jebel Ali
- Busiest U.S. Navy port of call.
- Largest manmade deep-water harbor in the world.
- Capable of berthing U.S. aircraft carriers.
- No ships supported or permanently based, and U.S. Navy ships do not take priority over commercial vessels.
Fujairah Naval Base
- Located on the outside of the Persian Gulf, before crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
- Offers a logistical "land link" to Jebel Ali should the Strait of Hormuz be closed.
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