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What Is Trump's True Endgame in Venezuela?
If a military invasion and occupation of Venezuela is not feasible and a successful CIA instigated coup is unlikely, what does Trump really want?
Oct 20, 2025
It’s ironic that in the same week that President Donald Trump escalated the drug war in the Caribbean by unleashing the CIA against Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, the Department of Justice won an indictment against former National Security Adviser John Bolton, the architect of the failed covert strategy to overthrow Maduro during the first Trump administration.
The one thing the two regime change operations have in common is Marco Rubio, who, as a senator, was a vociferous opponent of Maduro. Now, as secretary of state and national security adviser, he’s the new architect of Trump’s Venezuela policy, having managed to cut short Richard Grenell’s attempt to negotiate a diplomatic deal with Maduro. Regime change is on the agenda once again, with gunboats in the Caribbean and the CIA on the ground. What could go wrong?
Donald Trump’s penchant for turning the metaphorical war on drugs into a real one by deploying the US military dates back to his first administration, when he threatened to designate drug cartels as foreign terrorists and proposed launching missiles to blow up drugs labs in Mexico. During the recent presidential campaign, he declared, “The drug cartels are waging war on America—and it's now time for America to wage war on the cartels.” Apparently, he meant it.
Back in office, he named six Mexican cartels, the Salvadoran gang MS-13, and the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and ordered the Pentagon to draw up plans for military action against them. Early on, White House officials seriously debated military strikes against cartel leaders and infrastructure inside Mexico, but decided that cooperation with the Mexican government would be more fruitful. Nevertheless, the unusual appointment of a veteran Special Forces military officer to head the Western Hemisphere Affairs office of the National Security Council signaled that Trump was still was serious about resorting to military force to wage the war on drugs.
Nobody has ever won the Nobel Peace Prize for starting a war.
The focus then shifted to Venezuela. The day before the New York Times broke the story about Pentagon planning for action against cartels, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the US government was offering a $50 million reward for information leadings to Maduro’s arrest, accusing him of the “use cocaine as a weapon to 'flood' the United States.” Trump claimed Maduro was directing Tren de Aragua in “undertaking hostile actions and conducting irregular warfare against the territory of the United States,” a claim that the intelligence community concluded was untrue, despite pressure from Trump political appointees to make the estimate conform to Trump’s claim. The two senior career intelligence officers who oversaw preparation of the estimate were summarily fired.
In August, the Trump administration deployed a naval task force to the Caribbean, including three guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship, a guided-missile cruiser, and a nuclear-powered attack submarine. The following month, US forces began air strikes on vessels allegedly smuggling narcotics in international waters off the Venezuelan coast. When Democrats and some Republicans questioned the legality of summarily killing civilians who posed no immediate threat, Trump informed Congress that he had determined that the United States was in a state of “armed conflict” with unnamed “drug cartels,” whose drug trafficking constituted an attack on the United States. Therefore, traffickers were “unlawful combatants” subject to being killed on sight. Admiral Alvin Holsey, commander of US Southern Command, resigned on Thursday, reportedly because of concerns over the extrajudicial killing of civilians in the air strikes.
When Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump and asked for his help to oust Maduro, US escalation ratcheted up another notch. Last week Trump acknowledged that he has approved lethal CIA operations inside Venezuela. Asked if he had given authorization to “take out” Maduro, he refused to answer. In the same news conference, he also revealed that he was considering military strikes inside Venezuela. B-52 bombers have been dispatched to fly just off the Venezuelan coast and US Special Forces air units are conducting exercises in the area as a “show of force,” according to one official. Some 10,000 US troops have been deployed to the region.
Yet despite this impressive show of military prowess, it seems unlikely that the Trump administration is prepared to invade Venezuela. The forces currently deployed are nowhere near enough to occupy the country, which is five times the size of Iraq, Washington’s last misadventure in nation-building. Moreover, Trump has repeatedly promised his MAGA base there would be no more “endless” foreign wars, telling a 2024 campaign rally he would “turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of never-ending wars.” Even the air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused consternation in his “America First” base. And nobody has ever won the Nobel Peace Prize for starting a war.
The more likely next steps are targeted attacks on drug storage sites, on individuals involved in trafficking, and perhaps on members of the Maduro regime—the sort of strikes the White House contemplated launching against Mexico back in February. That could slow or even stop the flow of drugs through Venezuela, but Venezuela is not a drug producer. Colombia is the producer, and if it can’t send its drugs through Venezuela, it will send them through Mexico or up the Pacific coast in homemade “narco-submarines.” The obvious futility of trying to stop drug trafficking by waging covert or overt war against Venezuela suggests that the real motive is political—to bring about regime change.
Can the CIA’s covert operatives pull it off? In the places where they’ve been successful (Iran 1953, Guatemala 1954, Chile 1973), the key has been to turn the military against the civilian government. That’s not likely in Venezuela. The so-called “Cartel of the Suns” is a loose network of military officers profiting from a wide range of criminal enterprises, including collaboration with Colombia cocaine traffickers. Regime change in Caracas, especially the establishment of an opposition government led by María Corina Machado and friends, would pose a grave threat to the military’s interests. They might dispatch with Maduro, but if the infrastructure of the regime and armed forces remains intact, nothing would change.
The CIA’s efforts to foment a coup have already failed once. In 2019, at the peak of popular opposition to Maduro’s regime, with Washington promoting oppositionist Juan Guiadó as the legitimate president, “Operation Liberty” was a plan to split the army as a catalyst for regime collapse. Instead the plan collapsed when no significant military units defected.
If a military invasion and occupation of Venezuela is not feasible and a successful CIA instigated coup is unlikely, what is the end game for Trump’s escalating conflict with Venezuela? Will the president be satisfied with more performative displays of military force until the next crisis pushes Venezuela out of the headlines and off his agenda? Will he be satisfied if Nicolás Maduro is replaced by some other member of his regime so Trump can claim victory? Or will he finally conclude that Marco Rubio’s obsession with regime change in Venezuela is just as much a dead end as John Bolton’s was, and give Richard Grennel the nod to go back to Caracas and make a deal?
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Trump Admin Reportedly OKs CIA Action in Venezuela Amid Growing Alarm Over Bombed Boats
The reporting came as rights groups sought the legal memo on the president's deadly strikes on alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean.
Oct 15, 2025
As outrage over US President Donald Trump's deadly boat bombings mounts, The New York Times reported Wednesday that his administration secretly authorized the Central Intelligence Agency "to carry out lethal operations in Venezuela and conduct a range of operations in the Caribbean," with the ultimate aim of ousting the country's leader, Nicolás Maduro.
"The agency would be able to take covert action against Mr. Maduro or his government either unilaterally or in conjunction with a larger military operation," according to the Times, which cited unnamed US officials. "It is not known whether the CIA is planning any operations in Venezuela or if the authorities are meant as a contingency."
"But the development comes as the US military is planning its own possible escalation, drawing up options for President Trump to consider, including strikes inside Venezuela," the newspaper noted. The administration's Venezuela strategy was "developed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with help from John Ratcliffe, the CIA director."
The White House and CIA declined to comment on record, though some observers speculated it was "an authorized leak." The reporting comes as Democrats in Congress, human rights groups, and legal scholars sound the alarm of Trump's five known strikes on boats he claims were smuggling drugs, which have killed at least 27 people.
Critics highlighted the United States' long history of covert action in Latin America, as well as how the reported CIA authorization contrasts with Trump's so-called "America First" claims.
"This is absolutely insane," said Tommy Vietor, a former Obama administration official who went on to co-found Crooked Media. "America First was not sold as CIA regime change operations in Venezuela."
Critics also noted Trump's mission to secure the Nobel Peace Prize; this year, it went to María Corina Machado, a right-wing Venezuelan who dedicated the award to not only the people in her country, but also the US president.
"Now that Trump has delegated his preposterous politicking for a Nobel Peace Prize to sycophants, he can finally get around to declaring unilateral war on Venezuela, a war crime, as he murders Colombian civilians at sea, another war crime, and endorses collective punishment in Gaza, another war crime," journalist Seth Abramson said Wednesday.
As Senate Democrats last week unsuccessfully fought to stop Trump's boat strikes of the Venezuelan coast, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said on social media that one of the bombed vessels appeared to be carrying citizens of his country.
"A new war zone has opened: the Caribbean," he said at the time. "Evidence shows that the last boat bombed was Colombian, with Colombian citizens inside. I hope their families come forward and file complaints. There isn't a war against smuggling; it's a war for oil, and the world must stop it. The aggression is against all of Latin America and the Caribbean."
The Trump administration recently claimed in a confidential notice to Congress intended to justify the deadly bombings that the president decided drug cartels "are nonstate armed groups, designated them as terrorist organizations, and determined that their actions constitute an armed attack against the United States."
While that notice leaked to the press, the ACLU and Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR) on Wednesday filed a Freedom of Information Act request seeking the Office of Legal Counsel's guidance and other related documents regarding the strikes.
"All available evidence suggests that President Trump's lethal strikes in the Caribbean constitute murder, pure and simple," said Jeffrey Stein, staff attorney with the ACLU's National Security Project. "The public deserves to know how our government is justifying these attacks as lawful, and, given the stakes, immediate public scrutiny of its apparently radical theories is imperative."
CCR legal director Baher Azmy stressed that "in a constitutional system, no president can arbitrarily choose to assassinate individuals from the sky based on his whim or say-so."
"The Trump administration is taking its indiscriminate pattern of lawlessness to a lethal level," Azmy added. "The public understanding of any rationale supporting such unprecedented and shocking conduct is essential for transparency and accountability."
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House Dems Demand Trump, Rubio Free Sumud Flotilla Americans Held by Israel
"The US has an obligation to protect its citizens abroad and must act immediately."
Oct 06, 2025
Congressman Ro Khanna and two dozen other California Democrats wrote to President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday, urging them to demand that Israel release the Americans it detained while intercepting the Global Sumud Flotilla before the boats could reach the Gaza Strip.
More than 450 people from over 40 countries joined the peaceful mission to break Israel's blockade of Gaza and deliver humanitarian aid to starving Palestinians. Among them were at least 21 US citizens who "remain in Israeli detention," according to the letter from lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The lawmakers highlighted the Californians who are detained: Progressive International co-general coordinator David Adler, Tommy Marcus, Geraldine Ramirez, and Logan Hollarsmith.
They also emphasized that "the US has an obligation to protect its citizens abroad and must act immediately."
"We call on you to work for the immediate and safe release, including arranging the logistics of a plane to ensure the speedy recovery, of US citizens who were on the flotilla and are still being held in Israeli prisons," the lawmakers wrote to Rubio and Trump—who last week told Israel to "immediately stop" bombing Gaza.
Despite the directive from Trump—whose government gives Israel billions of dollars a year in military aid, even as it faces mounting allegations of genocide—Israel continues to bomb Gaza. The US lawmakers' letter stresses that in the Palestinian territory, "the humanitarian situation is growing more dire by the day," with the entire population food insecure and most housing destroyed.
"We call for humanitarian aid to be sent to the people of Gaza," states the letter—sent on the eve of the second anniversary of the Hamas-led attack on Israel, which has responded by slaughtering at least tens of thousands of Palestinians.
As of Monday, Israel had deported 341 of the 479 detained flotilla activists—including Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, who told reporters Monday that "I could talk for a very, very long time about our mistreatment and abuses in our imprisonment," but urged people around the world to focus on the genocide in Gaza.
"I will never, ever comprehend how humans can be so evil that you would deliberately starve millions of people living trapped under an illegal siege as a continuation of decades and decades of suffocating oppression, apartheid, occupation," she said.
Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) on Monday expressed concern about "reports of mistreatment of the American citizens detained by Israel for participating in the Gaza aid flotilla," and urged their immediate release and safe return to the United States.
Jeremy Corbyn, a member of the UK Parliament who used to lead the Labour Party, and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel have also publicly called for the release of Adler and the other flotilla members who remain detained by Israel.
Like the California Democrats, the US advocacy group Defending Rights & Dissent also wrote to Rubio on Monday, and specifically pointed to Adler, military veteran and podcaster Greg Stoker, and Drop Site News journalist Alex Colston.
"The State Department has a responsibility to defend the rights of our citizens abroad, especially when they are being subjected to violations of fundamental rights by a foreign government," wrote Defending Rights & Dissent. "Disturbingly, we have received reports that US consular assistance has been minimal or nonexistent. This is in stark contrast to other nations that have forcefully advocated for the human rights of their citizens and secured their expedited release."
After speaking with Hollarsmith's mother, Sidney Hollar, KQED reported Monday:
Hollar said she heard from the US Embassy in Jerusalem early Monday that Hollarsmith and the other US citizens still in detention were expected to be deported in the next 24 hours. She said that she was told they would be flown out of the country, but not given information about where they would land.
From there, the US would "loan them money for a hotel and for a flight home," she said. She called the prospect "outrageous."
"We can't fund a little chartered flight to get our US citizens, including US vets, home?" Hollar said.
"The Americans are being punished by the American government for delivering humanitarian aid," she said.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) took to social media on Monday to put pressure on the State Department.
"Last week, I wrote to Marco Rubio urging protection of Americans on the Sumud Flotilla. Since then, Israel has detained dozens of activists, including Americans, for trying to feed starving Gazans. This is unacceptable," she said. "Marco Rubio, you must negotiate their safe return home."
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