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Biden should bow out gracefully, and soon. It’s time to trust the Democratic rank and file to select the next presidential candidate.
In 1971, I worked as a paid staff member for Vinnie Sirabella, a charismatic labor leader who was running for mayor of New Haven, Connecticut. After personally conducting a voter-registration canvas in an area that Vinnie assured me was his stronghold, I found that he was universally disliked by his would-be supporters because he led a strike against the city’s most respected institution —Yale University. His lack of support turned out to be the case in neighborhood after neighborhood. When I reported this troubling situation to Vinnie and suggested he consider bowing out of the race gracefully, the staff became furious and ran me out of town. I learned it’s nearly impossible to bring bad news to a geared-up campaign -- the momentum to continue is just too great. Vinnie stayed in the race and received three percent of the vote.
It appears these days that the Democratic Party establishment is refusing to face up to bad news. Many, if not most, Democratic staff and operatives realize that Biden, at this point is his career, is a weak candidate. They understand that the risk of losing to Trump is very real, putting all of democracy in danger. But very few are willing to say that to Biden. And those who do, like former Obama advisor David Axelrod, are quickly denigrated.
The failure of Democratic operatives to act may be connected to Upton Sinclair’s astute observation made in 1935 made when running for Governor of California: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
In a real sense democracy is at risk in two ways.
Nevertheless, multiple polls show that somewhere between 50 to 70% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters don’t want Biden to run. Their only choices so far, however, in the opening primary in South Carolina on February 3, 2024, are little-known Representative Dean Phillips, of Minnesota, and self-help guru Marianne Williamson.
Why are the Democratic leaders not listening to their base? Isn’t this what democracy is supposed to be about? And where are all the other more established contenders? Why haven’t popular Democratic governors like Gavin Newsom (CA), Gretchen Whitmer (MI), J.B Pritzker (IL) or Phil Murphy (NJ) thrown their hats in the ring? And what about Ohio’s Senator Sharrod Brown?
No one is jumping in because that’s not how this game is played. As sitting president, Biden, and Biden alone, gets to make the decision, and he has chosen to run. The rest of the Democratic establishment is obliged to follow. Anyone who doesn’t will see their access to presidential power greatly reduced or eliminated, which raises serious questions about the role of grass-roots democracy within the Democratic Party.
The Democratic establishment, like the rank-and-file, certainly knows that Biden is too old, not just in years but in the way he moves and acts. His staff keeps him away from unscripted press events for fear he will struggle with his language. Instead, we hear rationalizations galore about how this really doesn’t matter. Here are more than a few:
Or as John Nichols put it in The Nation, “The current obsession with polls revolves around two basic premises: Biden is old and a lot of voters would prefer a younger alternative. Fair enough, but that doesn’t have much meaning if Biden is committed to running—and he is—along with the almost equally old and more bedraggled Trump.”
Multiple polls show that somewhere between 50 to 70% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters don’t want Biden to run.
In a real sense democracy is at risk in two ways. First, Trump is a clear and present danger if re-elected. But also, Democratic Party democracy, to restate Nichols, “doesn’t have much meaning if Biden is committed to running…”
Biden should bow out gracefully, and soon. It’s time to trust the Democratic rank and file to select the next presidential candidate. By refusing to do so, the Democratic establishment and its many progressive allies are playing with fire. They are not listening to their voters, and they are running the very real risk that a substantial portion of those who voted for Biden last time around will either sit home or cast their votes for a third-, fourth- or fifth-party candidate. The willful disregard of grass roots democracy within the Democratic Party could very well lead to the demolishment of democratic norms under a vengeful President Trump.
This is no time for collective cowardice. It is time for Democratic Party leaders to say out loud what they are saying to themselves: “Joe, for the sake of democracy, please don’t run!”
His ability to campaign may be limited by his legal woes, but his supporters will vote for him anyway.
It’s election season, and the leading candidates for president are barnstorming from state to state on the stump-speech circuit. Or, in the case of former president Donald Trump, to keep court dates.
As they say: priorities.
Trump was indicted last week, along with 18 other defendants, in Fulton County, Georgia. That makes the fourth jurisdiction in which the former president is facing criminal penalties, following the cases in Washington, D.C., where he was charged in federal court with conspiracy to overturn the election (four counts), and in Florida for illegally possessing classified documents (40 counts, including superseding indictments, for obstructing the government’s efforts to get them back), and in New York for paying off an adult film star to cover up an affair (34 counts of falsifying business records).
In Georgia, Trump himself faces 13 counts in the latest indictment, out of 41 total charges that also target 18 co-defendants. Trump’s charges include violating Georgia’s racketeering laws, and several that stem from the conspiracy to submit a false slate of electors to the Electoral College—and which also include the “absolutely perfect phone call” to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, asking him to “find 11,780 votes” to change the outcome of the election.
If four indictments seem excessive, it’s because Donald Trump was excessive in committing crimes in multiple jurisdictions.
Among the flurry of indictments and addenda and superseding indictments, it’s hard to keep track of which ones are important. The answer is that all of them are vitally important. If four indictments seem excessive, it’s because Donald Trump was excessive in committing crimes in multiple jurisdictions.
In the words of another former president, Trump is in deep doo-doo. But that doesn’t mean we can let down our guard.
We need to come to terms with an uncomfortable truth: the fact that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. His ability to campaign may be limited by his legal woes, but his supporters will vote for him anyway. We’re entering a presidential election phase where the Biden-vs.-Trump rematch is 99% certain, and that 1% hedge has only to do with both candidates being decades older than the average American president.
No viable candidate is going to emerge on the Democratic side to challenge an incumbent president with a largely successful term in office under his belt. First, we have Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a new darling of the right whose dangerous anti-vaccine crusade has been shown to be just the surface of his conspiracy-mongering and transphobia. Second, we have Marianne Williamson, whose “politics of love” nonetheless failed to win over American hearts in 2020, and whose own views on vaccines are likewise suspect, even if they’ve since been eclipsed by those of RFK Jr.
And it’s been obvious from day one that the Republican Party is setting itself up to repeat the 2015 primary race, where Trump picks off, one by one, a large number of third-tier politicians too cowardly to challenge him directly. Just as in 2015, he won’t even need a majority of the Republican vote, because he’s the only candidate who will have more than 20% to begin with.
(The one possible exception to this is former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has said he’s in the race specifically to try to take Trump down. More power to him if he does, because no one can defeat Trump by ignoring him—he has to be confronted head-on and destroyed. Maybe Christie is the one to do that, but I’m still waiting for evidence.)
In 2023 though, Trump’s already polling well above 50% among Republicans, despite the indictments. That’s because the GOP since 2015 has largely purged itself of its establishment wing, leaving the extremists in control. (Meanwhile, 53% of Americans actually approve of the indictments, and they may be hurting Trump’s overall favorability as the campaign season begins.)
And, while the indictments seem to be fueling a modest dip in Trump’s national polling numbers, the indictments are boosting his polling numbers within the Republican primary. That’s because his followers believe, with all the fervent religiosity of cult members, that the Big Bad Woke Government is persecuting loyal, patriotic Republicans. The charges only feed their persecution complex, which is what feeds the hand-wringing commentators urging us not to prosecute Trump, out of fear of what his supporters will do. As if his supporters haven’t already tried to violently overthrow the government.
Let’s disabuse ourselves of another fantasy. Even if Trump goes to prison because he’s found guilty, or he’s put in jail for contempt by a judge who refuses to tolerate his taunts and threats, he will continue running for president, he will win the GOP nomination, and he could indeed be reelected. There ought to be a law, but there isn’t. The narrowly divided Congress has been unable to do the sensible thing and pass legislation barring him under the 14th Amendment from holding public office, or even just in response to his two impeachments.
I wouldn’t put much stock in the recent “conservative argument for barring Trump” articles either. They’re interesting arguments, and the law professors making the case are perhaps even correct that the 14th Amendment prohibition is automatic, with no Congressional action needed. But most state GOP officials who have the power to boot Trump from the ballot aren’t going to do that without a court order, and this is a party that has increasingly shown its willingness to ignore the law entirely.
This doesn’t mean Trump won’t eventually go to prison. But it’s very unlikely to happen before the next election, given the inevitable appeals and Trump’s expertise in delay tactics and avoiding accountability. After all, he still insists he won the 2020 election. This could go on for a long time.
But there are signs we will see some major results before the election.
Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, who brought both the classified documents case in Florida and the election interference case in Washington, D.C., has indicated he isn’t going to accommodate Trump’s usual tactics and requested January 2 as a date for Trump’s election interference trial. Smith even indicated he’d allow the documents trial to be postponed to accommodate this one.
That’s important for two reasons. One, voters have a right to know if Trump is guilty or not guilty before casting their votes. More importantly, if Trump wins, he can, and will, simply dismiss any federal cases that are still pending. Maybe he’ll even settle the cases with a payout from the government to himself to cover his (likely inflated) legal fees. He may pardon himself if he’s both found guilty and wins the election, because his handpicked, subservient attorney general won’t stop him—and that’s even more of an argument to make sure Trump never again obtains power.
Speaking personally as someone who grew up on the East Coast in the 1970s and ’80s, it was pretty obvious back then that Trump was, at best, a tawdry huckster with a long line of shady deals and business failures to his name, both his own and others’.
Fortunately, U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan also appears to be resistant to Trumpian antics, granting Smith’s early request to prevent Trump from sharing trial evidence publicly, as he is almost certainly going to do. She’s also issued a warning to Trump, indicating that she will take any necessary measures to stop Trump from intimidating witnesses or tainting the jury pool with his trial-by-tantrum strategy.
In 2016, someone who hadn’t been paying attention might be forgiven for not expecting the rampancy of criminal behavior once Trump ascended to national office. But the mass media can’t be forgiven, since it’s their job to be paying attention. And, speaking personally as someone who grew up on the East Coast in the 1970s and ’80s, it was pretty obvious back then that Trump was, at best, a tawdry huckster with a long line of shady deals and business failures to his name, both his own and others’. He was a regular of the New York Post’s “Page Six” gossip column and grocery store checkout-line magazines. By extension, the “serious” media should have done a better job warning American voters about someone they only knew from highly scripted appearances on The Apprentice.
In 2023, mass media no longer have an excuse, and largely they’ve been fairly good. But they’re still acting as if the Republican nomination isn’t a foregone conclusion. And the possibilities of more Trumpian violence, let alone another January 6-style insurrection, can’t be understated.
The United States is quite imperfect in living up to its ideals, but the general trend has been to get better at it. Allowing someone to escape justice just because he’s a former president, or because we’re afraid of his followers, undermines our commitment to have justice for all.
Fortunately, it appears we aren’t going to allow justice to be denied in this case. Prosecuting (and convicting) Trump won’t change the minds of his loyal base, and it may indeed push some of them over the edge. But it will show that the rest of the nation is willing to live up to its principles.
"If President Biden is serious about defeating the fascists and right-wing nominee in 2024," said the youth-led Sunrise Movement on Tuesday, "he must run on a progressive platform and use the final year of this term to rack up more wins for our generation."
President Joe Biden made his reelection campaign official Tuesday morning as he evoked the threat to foundational and hard-won rights and freedoms posed by the increasingly fascist Republican Party.
"Every generation has a moment where they have had to stand up for democracy. To stand up for their fundamental freedoms," Biden declared in an early morning post to social media. "I believe this is ours."
\u201cEvery generation has a moment where they have had to stand up for democracy. To stand up for their fundamental freedoms. I believe this is ours.\n\nThat\u2019s why I\u2019m running for reelection as President of the United States. Join us. Let\u2019s finish the job. https://t.co/V9Mzpw8Sqy\u201d— Joe Biden (@Joe Biden) 1682416800
While Biden had long said he would seek another term, he states in his campaign's kickoff video that the key to his run will be warding off any possible victory from the increasingly anti-democratic GOP, including his predecessor Donald Trump, the GOP's leading contender, or other hopefuls like Nikki Haley, who launched her campaign in February, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is expected to throw his hat in the ring later this year.
Biden accused "MAGA extremists" around the country for their persistent assault against "bedrock freedoms" and liberal democracy while they also threaten cuts on Social Security, eviscerate reproductive choice and abortion care, ban books, attack the LGBTQI+ community, and actively work to make voting for Americans.
"When I ran for President four years ago, I said we were in the battle for the soul of America," Biden says in the launch video. "And we still are."
"If President Biden is serious about defeating the fascists and right-wing nominee in 2024, he must run on a progressive platform and use the final year of this term to rack up more wins for our generation."
With the Republicans hungry to retake both Congress and the White House, Biden warns that now "is not time to be complacent" and that "this is our moment" to stand up to defend the nation and the values it claims to value.
Not wholly unchallenged on the Democratic side, Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have launched presidential campaigns to offer an alternative to the incumbent. On the Republican side, Trump's popularity—despite a recent criminal indictment and his role in triggering the January 6. insurrection effort on the U.S. government in 2021—remains the overall favorite to win the GOP nomination.
While the Democratic National Committee will clear a path for Biden, progressives disappointed in the president's failures or shortcomings, including repeated failures to live up to his commitments on climate, say Biden cannot afford to ignore them if he hopes to beat Trump for a second time.
"If he wants to win," said the youth-led Sunrise Movement on Tuesday, "he must energize the young voters who have been carrying the Democratic Party since 2018. He can't take our generation for granted."
In a statement, Sunrise's executive director Varshini Prakash said: "Let's be clear—President Biden ran and won in 2020 by mobilizing our generation on the promise of bold, Green New Deal-style climate plans, and it's how Democrats won again in 2022 after passing the Inflation Reduction Act."
"If President Biden is serious about defeating the fascists and right-wing nominee in 2024, he must run on a progressive platform and use the final year of this term to rack up more wins for our generation," Prakash added. "The steps backward on policy that the administration has taken—especially on Willow and drilling projects—make our job of getting young people out to vote all the more difficult, and this is a fight we can't afford to lose."
According to Sean Eldridge, president and founder of the advocacy group Stand Up America, said Biden helped "save American democracy by defeating Donald Trump in 2020, and he did it again by opposing MAGA extremists in last year’s midterm elections."
It's very possible Biden could face off against Trump in the general election again, said Eldridge.
"The future of our democracy will once again be on the ballot in 2024," he said. "As the Republican field is beginning to take shape, voters should be alarmed by the election deniers, January 6 enablers, and other anti-democratic politicians throwing their hats into the ring. Our community of nearly two million members is ready to mobilize in 2024 to support democracy defenders up and down the ballot."