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marine le pen
Why Europe Is Unlikely to Replace Trump’s US as Ukraine’s Chief Backer
The money isn’t there, and centrist parties in France and Germany are struggling to fend off populist challenges of their own.
Dec 06, 2024
Two main lessons are to be drawn from the fall of Michel Barnier’s government in France.
The first is that talk of Europe massively rearming itself and substituting for the U.S. as the chief backer of Ukraine while maintaining existing levels of healthcare and social security is idiocy. The money is simply not there. The second is that the effort by “mainstream” establishments to exclude populist parties from office is doomed in the long run, and in the short run is a recipe for repeated political crisis and increasing paralysis of government.
Two countries are central to the European Union, the European economy, European defense, and any hope of European strategic autonomy: France and Germany. Within a month of each other, both have seen their governments collapse due to battles over how to reduce their growing budget deficits. In both cases, their fiscal woes have been drastically worsened by a combination of economic stagnation and pressure on welfare budgets with the new costs of rearmament and support for Ukraine.
Large parts of the European foreign and security establishments write and talk as if none of this were happening; as if in fact these establishments had been permanently appointed to their positions by Louis XIV and Frederick II, and given by those sovereigns an unlimited right to tax and conscript their subjects.
In both cases, fiscal crisis has fed into the decay of the mainstream political parties that alternated in power for generations—a phenomenon that is to be seen all over Europe (and in the U.S., insofar as President-elect Donald Trump represents a revolt against the Republican establishment). This decay is being fed by the growing backlash against dictation by the E.U. and NATO that is occurring across wide swathes of Europe.
In the French presidential elections of 2017 and 2022, President Emmanuel Macron defeated the Front National (now the Rassemblement National) of Marine Le Pen by essentially uniting the remnants of all the centrist parties in a grand coalition behind himself. The problem with such grand coalitions of the center however is that they leave opposition nowhere to go but the extremes of right and left.
In the case of France, economic stagnation and resistance to Macron’s free market and austerity measures led in June of this year to crushing defeat for his bloc in European parliamentary elections. Macron then called snap French parliamentary elections in the hope that fear of Le Pen and the radical left would terrify French voters back into support for him. The result however was that Le Pen won a plurality of the vote, and while electoral deals with the left gave Macron’s bloc a plurality of seats, they are heavily outnumbered by deputies on the right and left.
Macron then ditched his left-wing allies and stitched up an agreement whereby Le Pen would support a centrist-conservative government under Michel Barnier in return for concessions on immigration policy and other issues. Bizarrely however, this was combined with continued “lawfare” against the Rassemblement National, with the prosecution of Le Pen for allegedly diverting E.U. parliamentary funds to support her party’s deputies. This is something that looks rather like a technicality or peccadillo, given what we know of the past behavior of E.U. parliamentarians—but would mean that, if convicted, she would be barred from running for the presidency in 2027.
This of course gave Le Pen every incentive to bring down Barnier’s government in the hope that it will bring down Macron with it, and thereby lead to early presidential elections; and when Barnier’s austerity budget (pushed through by decree against parliamentary opposition) infuriated the left, Le Pen seized her chance. Given the string of defeats that Macron has now suffered (and remembering that the far greater Charles de Gaulle resigned in 1969 after a far lesser defeat), it would make sense for Macron to step down. This would most probably lead to a presidency of the Rassemblement National; but then again, this is also probable if presidential elections take place on schedule in 2027.
German politics are in certain respects tracking those of France, but some years behind. Not long ago one would have said a generation behind, but European political change is clearly speeding up. After the 2021 general elections, the decline in support for the Social Democratic party, and the rise of the right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutchland (AfD) and the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) forced the Social Democrats into an uneasy coalition with two deeply ideologically opposed partners, the Liberals (FDP) and the Greens.
As Germany’s economic position worsened, internal battles over the budget also worsened until the coalition eventually collapsed. Opinion polls indicate that the centrist conservative Christian Democrats will come first in elections due in February, but will be far short of an absolute majority. The result will be a grand coalition with the Social Democrats; but if that also falls short of an absolute majority, and the Liberals fail to pass the 5% threshold to enter the German parliament, then (assuming a continued determination to exclude AfD and BSW), the Greens will have to be included.
Not only will this replicate the internal weaknesses and divisions of the last coalition, but it will mean that if Germany’s economic woes continue and the coalition parties’ popularity slumps, AfD and BSW will be the only place for discontented voters to go. These parties, being newer, are not yet nearly as popular as their French equivalents. AfD still has to go much further in the process initiated by Le Pen in the Front National, of purging its more extreme elements; and of course there is the special German historical fear of the radical right. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to think that the future German trajectory will resemble that of France.
Meanwhile, large parts of the European foreign and security establishments write and talk as if none of this were happening; as if in fact these establishments had been permanently appointed to their positions by Louis XIV and Frederick II, and given by those sovereigns an unlimited right to tax and conscript their subjects.
Thus in an article this week for Foreign Affairs, Elie Tenenbaum of the French Institute of International Relations in Paris and a colleague declare that in response to Trump’s election and in order to block a peace deal disadvantageous to Ukraine and “impose conditions of its own,” Europe must “force its way to the negotiating table.” A European coalition force of “at least four to five multinational brigades” should be deployed to eastern Ukraine to guarantee against further Russian aggression. European combat air patrols could be deployed “while the war is still underway.” And “if Russia remains unyielding, Europe must bear the bulk of the financial assistance to support Ukraine in a protracted conflict.”
Where the money and the public support for such a program is to come from is nowhere indicated.
I don’t know an appropriate and printable French response to these daydreams, but the Kremlin may reply with an old Russian saying: “Oh sure—when crabs learn to whistle.”
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Macron Names Right-Wing Prime Minister, 'Turning His Back' On French Voters
The president drew criticism for rejecting the candidate put up by the left-of-center coalition that won the most seats in parliamentary elections.
Sep 05, 2024
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday named the right-wing politician Michel Barnier as prime minister, prompting outrage from a coalition of left-of-center parties that won the most seats in recent parliamentary elections and argued that the premier should be chosen from its ranks.
The decision marks the end of an unprecedented period in which France hasn't had an active government following the final round of parliamentary elections on July 7 and the previous prime minister's resignation on July 16.
The election ended with the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), the left coalition, winning a plurality of seats at 32.6%, Macron's own Ensemble coalition of centrist neoliberals winning 27.9%, and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) winning 24.6%. NFP and Ensemble coordinated their efforts in the final round, forming a "republican front" to block the RN—a successful effort that drew praise from left and centrist figures across the world.
Barnier's center-right party, Les Républicains (LR), once a powerful force in France, gained only 8.3% of the seats, yet emerged victorious in the prime ministerial sweepstakes following Macron's negotiations with RN leader Marine Le Pen, who's thought to have agreed to Barnier's appointment. Without RN's support, Barnier could be ousted by a no-confidence vote in parliament.
In late August, Macron rejected the NFP's proposed prime minister, Lucie Castets, a little-known civil servant and economist whose nomination was itself a compromise reached by the parties within the NFP, which include the center-left Parti Socialiste (PS), the left-wing La France Insoumise (LFI), and Les Écologistes, a green party.
Les Écologistes on Thursday condemned Macron's choice, saying he was "obsessed with the preservation of his neoliberal record" and he'd aligned with the far-right.
"By appointing Mr. Barnier, who did not call for a republican blockade and whose positions on immigration resonate with those of the RN, to [Hôtel Matignon, the prime minister's residence], Emmanuel Macron is turning his back on the millions of citizens who have created a historic republican blockade in France," the party said in a statement.
🔴⚡ Un accord a été trouvé entre le président de la République, LR et le RN sur la nomination de @MichelBarnier | Il ne manquait plus que l'accord de Marine Le Pen, le RN confirme ne pas censurer un gouvernement #Barnier. pic.twitter.com/rKlaeE1n1n
— Nouveau Front Populaire 🟢🔴🟡🟣🔴 (ex NUPES News) (@NupesNews) September 5, 2024
Normally, the French president names a prime minister within days of an election for the National Assembly, as the directly-elected house of Parliament is called. However, with no party gaining a majority, and Macron opposed to the NFP—the coalition had run on a platform of rolling back his anti-worker agenda—the negotiations dragged on, especially once the president announced an interlude for the Olympics.
In the French system, the president chooses the prime minister, who has power over governmental ministries, but a majority of the National Assembly must approve of the choice or the deputies, as members of parliament are known, can issue a vote of no confidence. Not since the Fifth Republic formed with constitutional reform in 1958 has the country gone so long without a prime minister.
Barnier, 73, was first elected to the National Assembly in 1978 and worked his way up, serving various key ministerial posts in the 1990s and 2000s under center-right Presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy. From 2016 until 2021, he served as the European Union's chief Brexit negotiator.
Barnier was generally regarded as a centrist conservative but moved to the right in 2021, speaking harshly about immigration as he prepared a 2022 presidential run. The effort failed: He didn't receive his party's nomination.
Le Pen emerged in recent days as the "kingmaker" in the prime minister negotiations, according toLe Monde. With the backing of Ensemble and the RN, Barnier will be able to hold on to the job, as together the two blocs have more than 50% of the seats in the National Assembly.
Le Pen indicated at least a modicum of support for Barnier on Thursday, saying that he is "someone who is respectful of the different political forces and capable of addressing the RN."
Castets, on the other hand, said she was "very worried" about Barnier's appointment and called him "reactionary."
"Michel Barnier is the continuation of Macron's policy, or even worse," Castets toldMediapart.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, standard-bearer of the French left and leader of the LFI, the NFP party holding the most seats, also decried the choice, pointing out that Barnier's party did poorly in the election and hadn't been part of the republican front. He said the "election has been stolen."
Mélenchon has led an effort to impeach Macron for his refusal to name an NFP prime minister but experts say it has little chance of succeeding. Mélenchon's allies are holding a rally on Saturday to call for the ouster of both Macron and Barnier.
Fabien Roussel, the leader of a Communist party that's a smaller member of the NFP, called Macron's move "a middle finger to the French who aspire to change," roughly translated, in a social media post.
The PS, which includes such figures as former President François Hollande and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, hasn't joined the impeachment call but was critical of Macron's process. Olivier Faure, the party's leader, called it an affront to democracy.
"Democratic denial at its peak: a Prime Minister from the party that came in 4th place and who did not even participate in the republican front," Faure said. "We're entering a crisis of regime."
The transfer of power to Barnier was set for 6 pm local time at Hôtel Matignon on Thursday.
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'This Election Is Being Stolen From Us': French Left Calls Mass Protest Against Macron
"The people must get rid of Macron for the good of democracy," said the leader of France's Green Party.
Aug 27, 2024
Leftist parties in France on Tuesday accused President Emmanuel Macron of election theft and announced mass protests after he rejected Nouveau Front Populaire's proposed candidate for prime minister, even though the left-wing coalition won the most seats in a snap parliamentary contest last month.
The left-wing parties that formed NFP in June to fight off the surging far-right expressed outrage at Macron's decision, with the Jean-Luc Mélenchon-led La France Insoumise (LFI) Party condemning Macron's dismissal of a leftist government as a "coup" and urging a "firm response from French society."
Backing demands from youth-led organizations, the party specifically called for "a large demonstration against Macron's coup on September 7" and expressed "hope that the political, union, and allied forces committed to the defense of democracy will join this call."
Marine Tondelier, the leader of France's Green Party, said Tuesday that "this election is being stolen from us" and declared that "the people must get rid of Macron for the good of democracy."
"He is chaos and instability," Tondelier added.
The French political system has been engulfed in chaos since Macron called snap elections in June after his party performed dreadfully in European Parliament elections in June as Marine Le Pen's far-right, xenophobic National Rally surged.
While the French left and Macron allies successfully teamed up last month to prevent the National Rally from seizing control of the nation's government, NFP's stunning victory in the snap election created a new dilemma for Macron, who has been openly hostile to the left since taking office in 2017.
"Facing a hung parliament in which each of the three almost equal groupings—the left, Macron's centrist bloc, and the far-right National Rally—have ruled out forming a coalition, the president appeared to be back to square one," Reutersreported.
Macron claimed Monday that a leftist-led government "would immediately have a majority of more than 350 MPs against it, effectively preventing it from acting."
"In view of the opinions expressed by the political leaders consulted, the institutional stability of our country means that this option should not be pursued," said Macron, ruling out the NFP's candidate for prime minister, Lucie Castets.
Protesting Macron's decision, leftist leaders boycotted a fresh round of negotiations on Tuesday, with Tondelier saying that "we're not going to continue these sham consultations with a president who doesn't listen anyway... and is obsessed with keeping control."
"He's not looking for a solution, he's trying to obstruct it," said Tondelier.
In a social media post on Monday, Mélenchon pledged to move ahead with an impeachment motion against Macron, calling for a "swift and firm" response to the French president.
"The president of the republic has just created a situation of exceptional gravity," Mélenchon wrote.
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