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"Ice sheets are retreating fast today," said one expert. "But we see traces in the seafloor that the retreat could go faster, way faster, and this is a reminder that we have not seen everything yet."
Peer-reviewed research out Wednesday shows that parts of a huge ice sheet covering Eurasia retreated up to 2,000 feet per day at the end of the last ice age—by far the fastest rate measured to date.
The new finding, published in the journal Nature, upends "what scientists previously thought were the upper speed limits for ice sheet retreat," The Washington Postreported, and it has sparked fears about "how quickly ice in Greenland and Antarctica could melt and raise global sea levels in today's warming world."
As the Post explained:
Scientists monitor ice sheet retreat rates to better estimate contributions to global sea-level rise. Antarctica and Greenland have lost more than 6.4 trillion tons of ice since the 1990s, boosting global sea levels by at least 0.7 inches (17.8 millimeters). Together, the two ice sheets are responsible for more than one-third of total sea-level rise.
The rapid retreat found on the Eurasian ice sheet far outpaces the fastest-moving glaciers studied in Antarctica, which have been measured to retreat as quickly as 160 feet per day. Once the ice retreats toward the land, it lifts from its grounding on the seafloor and begins to float, allowing it to flow faster and increase the contribution to sea-level rise.
If air and ocean temperatures around Antarctica were to increase as projected and match those at the end of the last ice age, researchers say ice marching backward hundreds of feet in a day could trigger a collapse of modern-day glaciers sooner than previously thought. That could be devastating for global sea levels.
"If temperatures continue to rise, then we might have the ice being melted and thinned from above as well as from below," lead author Christine Batchelor, a physical geographer at Newcastle University, told the newspaper. "That could kind of end up with a scenario that looks more similar to what we had [off] Norway after the last glaciation."
Using ship-borne imagery of ridges along the seafloor, Batchelor and her colleagues found that the Norwegian continental ice shelf retreated 180 to 2,000 feet per day, with the fastest retreat rates lasting for a period of days to a few months.
"This is not a model. This is real observation," Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the University of California at Irvine who was not involved in the new study, told the Post. "And it is frankly scary. Even to me."
Prior to the publication of the new research, one of the fastest glacial retreat rates detected was at Pope Glacier in West Antarctica. This smaller glacier is not far from the massive Thwaites Glacier, which is nicknamed the "doomsday glacier" due to projections about how its melting is poised to contribute significantly to sea-level rise.
Rignot was part of the team that published a paper last year documenting the retreat of Pope Glacier. Based on satellite calculations, the 2022 study found that during a period in 2017, the glacier retreated at a rate of roughly 105 feet per day, or about 20 times slower than the fastest rate detected for the Eurasian ice sheet in the new study.
"Ice sheets are retreating fast today, [especially] in Antarctica," Rignot said Wednesday. "But we see traces in the seafloor that the retreat could go faster, way faster, and this is a reminder that we have not seen everything yet."
Temperature rise, meanwhile, shows no signs of slowing down.
Before last year's COP27 climate summit—which ended, like the 26 meetings before it, with no concrete plan to rapidly move away from planet-heating fossil fuels—the U.N. warned that existing emissions reductions targets and policies are so inadequate that there is "no credible path" currently in place to achieve the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, beyond which impacts will grow increasingly deadly, particularly for people in low-income countries who have done the least to cause the crisis.
The U.N. made clear that only "urgent system-wide transformation" can prevent catastrophic temperature rise of up to 2.9°C by 2100, but oil and gas corporations—bolstered by trillions of dollars in annual public subsidies—are still planning to expand fossil fuel production in the coming years, prioritizing short-term profits over the lives of those who will be harmed by the resulting climate chaos.
"It's way faster than we thought these circulations could slow down," said one researcher. "We are talking about the possible long-term extinction of an iconic water mass."
Scientists from the United States and Australia on Wednesday warned in a new study that the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting rapid melting of Antarctic glaciers is placing a vital deep ocean current "on a trajectory that looks headed towards collapse" in the coming decades.
As Common Dreams has reported, Antarctic ice is melting at an unprecedented rate, and the melting is causing fresh water to enter the ocean—reducing the salinity and density which is needed to drive the "overturning circulation" of water deep in the world's oceans.
Normally, dense water flows toward the ocean floor and helps transport heat and and vital nutrients through the planet's oceans. The circulation helps support marine ecosystems and the stability of ice shelves.
With carbon emissions continuing to rise despite clear warnings from energy and climate experts about the urgent need to draw down emissions, the deep ocean current is projected to slow by 40% by 2050, according to the study, which was published in Nature.
The current slowdown would "profoundly alter the ocean overturning of heat, fresh water, oxygen, carbon, and nutrients, with impacts felt throughout the global ocean for centuries to come," according to the study.
The researchers, who study at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Australian National University, and Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), examined models and simulations over two years to determine how fast the deep ocean current more than 13,000 feet below the surface is expected to slow down as fresh water rapidly enters the ocean.
Circulation deep in the ocean could weaken twice as fast as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which carries warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic Ocean. The collapse of the AMOC has previously been identified as "one of the planet's main potential tipping points," as Common Dreams reported in 2021, but the Antarctic overturning circulation has been less studied until now.
The deep ocean current allows nutrients to rise from the bottom of the ocean, supporting about three-quarters of phytoplankton production and forming the basis of the global food chain.
"If we slow the sinking near Antarctica, we slow down the whole circulation and so we also reduce the amount of nutrients that get returned from the deep ocean back up to the surface," Stephen Rintoul, a fellow at CSIRO and co-author of the study, told Al Jazeera.
The ocean would also be left with a limited ability to absorb carbon dioxide due to the stratification of its upper layers, and warm water could increasingly intrude on the western Antarctic ice shelf, creating a feedback loop and even more melting of glaciers.
The study is "actually kind of conservative" in that it doesn't go into detail regarding that "disaster [scenario]," Alan Mix, a co-author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report who was not involved in Wednesday's study, told Al Jazeera.
Matthew England, another co-author of the study, toldThe Guardian that deep ocean circulations have "have taken more than 1,000 years or so to change, but this is happening over just a few decades."
"It's way faster than we thought these circulations could slow down," England added. "We are talking about the possible long-term extinction of an iconic water mass."
The study is the latest sign that action to reduce planet-heating fossil fuel emissions is happening far too slowly, said climate scientist Bill McGuire.
\u201cMore absolutely horrendous news on the global heating front.\n\nOur climate is falling apart in front of our eyes.\n\nNet zero in 2050 is nowhere near enough and far, far, too late.\n\nhttps://t.co/BvjXqX9cft\u201d— Bill McGuire (@Bill McGuire) 1680123140
"It seems almost certain that continuing on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway will lead to even more profound effects on the ocean and the climate system," John Church, an emeritus professor at University of New South Wales in Australia, told Al Jazeera. "The world urgently needs to drastically reduce our emissions to get off the high-emission pathway we are currently following."
What researchers found is that weird stuff is going on down there that could speed up the day when Thwaites takes a swim.
The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica—the so-called "Doomsday Glacier"—is in the news again. We are fascinated with it because it is the Godzilla of glaciers, 80 miles across and as massive as Florida. If the ice sheet holding it back were to melt, and if Thwaites plopped into the ocean, it would all by itself raise sea level two feet. It functions, however, to hold back other glaciers and ice formations, which in its absence would themselves head for the sea. If that happened you would be talking about ten feet of sea level rise. The last time I discussed it, Alastair G.C. Graham had just shown that glaciers sometimes move very quickly. This finding has been widely accepted by scientists.
B.E. Schmidt and colleagues write in a paper for Nature that scientists piloted an underwater vehicle beneath the ice shelf and the Thwaites glacier. Eat your heart out, James Cameron! They found that the glacier is melting a little slower than had been feared, but that since 2010 it has nevertheless shrunk consistently and fairly rapidly. Worse, much worse was their finding that there are big cracks in the glacier and terraced indentations from below that they call ‘staircase-like’ structures. These weak spots are exposed to relatively warm water, at a temperature of 2°C, i.e., 35.6°F, from beneath, and the glacier is melting especially rapidly at these weak hot points.
The scientists write that “The varied topography [i.e. the cracks and staircases] of the ice base at the GL [the grounding line where the ice shelf meets the ocean], carved as it flowed over the bed before reaching the ocean, becomes a broadly distributed network of sloped ice surfaces along which melting is promoted.”
The important phrase here is melting is promoted. You never want to hear that in Antarctica.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) has a neat sea level viewer. I entered two feet of sea level rise into it, and this is what the United States looks like under that condition:
That’s a lot of coast missing. And cities. Isn’t the map showing Miami, Savannah and New Orleans as not there any more?
Then I put in 10 feet sea level rise:
It looks like San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle are gone now, too. And Rhode Island and Boston.
We are not talking about hypotheticals. Likely this amount of sea level is locked in, and four to six feet of sea level is predicted by the end of this century by the IPCC. That prediction, however, does not take into account the possibility that the Thwaites Glacier may take a dive.
So the only question is the pace and the time scale of this change. I think what the team that went down in their underwater vehicle found is that weird stuff is going on down there that could speed up T-day, the day when Thwaites takes a swim.
Another team of scientists, as reported by Peter E. D. Davis et al. in Nature, as well, drilled into Thwaites with a warm drill. They found that although some of it is shielded from warm water by a layer of colder water, even a little heat goes a long way toward increasing the rate of melt: “rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates.” They drilled into a part of the glacier that is melting more slowly, but observe that the “main trunk” is rapidly retreating.
Their conclusion is not encouraging: “Nevertheless, sustained grounding-zone basal melting, weaker ice-shelf buttressing and the advection of increasingly thinner ice over the grounding line will continue to condition TEIS to persistent retreat in the future, even without a strong positive feedback from elevated basal melting.”
In otherwords, the thing is going to go on melting. And that ain’t good.