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Can Sheinbaum Avoid A Death Spiral After the El Mencho Killing?
On one hand, demonstrating the ability to confront organized crime may help counter the narrative that progressive governments are soft on violence. On the other, history suggests that decapitation strategies rarely defeat cartels.
Mar 04, 2026
On February 22, 2026, Mexican special forces in Tapalpa, Jalisco, authorized by left-wing President Claudia Sheinbaum and acting on intelligence from the US military, killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, Nom de Guerre “El Mencho,” the 59-year-old leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the most-wanted man in Mexico.
Within hours, the cartel put up roadblocks, arson attacks, and running gun battles across a dozen states, ravaging Tapalpa and other cities. By the time the violence subsided, over 70 people were dead, including 25 Mexican National Guard troops. The entire country is holding its breath as it prepares to enter a new phase of its decades-long Drug War.
Does decapitating a cartel end the Drug War?
The operation was also the culmination of a strategy that Claudia Sheinbaum's predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, had promised to abandon, namely, the militarized war on drugs that since 2006 has left between 350,000 and 400,000 Mexicans dead and more than 130,000 disappeared. Instead, while making some initial welcome gestures, he militarized the Southern Border, created the National Guard, and continued the War on Drugs.
Removing El Mencho may weaken CJNG in the short term. But it could also ignite the next phase of Mexico’s drug war, one that extends far beyond the country’s borders and deeper into the Western Hemisphere.
The Mexican drug war has never been Mexico's responsibility alone. It is the product of an insatiable American thirst for drugs that has only intensified with the opioid crisis, as fentanyl has flooded US streets, claiming tens of thousands of lives annually, with support from Big Pharma. The United States remains the world’s largest consumer market for narcotics; American demand generates billions of dollars annually for trafficking organizations.
Mexican cartels such as the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel now supply fentanyl, cocaine, methamphetamine, and heroin to a US market whose demand keeps increasing, according to new reporting.
American guns are also at the center of this crisis. There are exactly two legal gun stores in all of Mexico, operating under strict military supervision. Across the border, in the four US border states, there are more than 9,000 legal gun sale points.
An estimated 250,000 to 500,000 guns are trafficked from the United States into Mexico each year. Roughly 70% originate north of the border. These include .50-caliber rifles capable of piercing armored vehicles and downing helicopters; many of them were from the American military. A new raid on a CNJG ammo depot revealed that 47% of the ammunition came directly from one US Army plant in Kansas City. That very same ammo was used to kill 13 police officers in Michoacán in 2019.
The CJNG now dominates 23 out of Mexico’s 32 states, with operations stretching from the Pacific Coast all the way to the Northern border. The cartel's estimated worth exceeds $20 billion, drawn not only from drugs but from a diversified portfolio of extortion, petroleum theft, human trafficking, and kidnapping.
It has used extreme force and military-level tactical planning against its rivals, including the state itself. In 2015, it shot down a Mexican military helicopter in Jalisco. It has assassinated mayors, attacked police convoys with improvised armored vehicles, and used drones and explosives against state security forces.
Internally, polls suggest support for the operation is between 80 and 90%. After years of feeling helpless before cartel violence, many Mexicans welcome any action that produces “results.” With this, we see the rise of “penal populism” across Latin America, where electorates increasingly embrace tough-on-crime approaches, even when those approaches destroy democracy and human rights.
The high popularity of El Salvador's right-wing dictator Nayib Bukele, whose approval ratings have hovered around 90%, testifies to the political appeal of iron-fist tactics, regardless of their clear governance costs. Bukele's mass incarceration model, where tens of thousands have been jailed without due process in inhumane conditions where torture is common, has become a model that politicians across the region now invoke, including in Honduras, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Peru.
That comes despite his success being predicated on secret deals with gangs, not on a War on Drugs—most countries that have tried his militarized tactics have suffered increases in the violent crime and homicide rates, at the same time as their economies have become increasingly unequal and democratic societies have cratered.
Externally, President Donald Trump has made clear his view that “cartels are runnning Mexico” and that Sheinbaum and other Latin American leaders should go to war with them, otherwise he will do it for them. His administration has designated Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and considered military intervention in Mexico. A US intervention would be disastrous for both Mexico and Sheinbaum, so the El Mencho operation is the price they settled on.
To add insult to injury, this summer, Mexico will host numerous World Cup matches, including four in Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco state. The Sheinbaum government is trying to give the allure of tightening security ahead of the games.
She has modeled aspects of her approach on Brazil. Before the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics, Rio de Janeiro launched aggressive “pacification” campaigns in favelas, military occupations that temporarily suppressed violence but failed to address its roots while killing high rates of civilians and eroding civil liberties. The War on Drugs has not stopped there, either. We have to wait and see if Mexico follows this tragic pattern.
Across Latin America, the right has successfully framed security as a question of toughness versus weakness, where, as Bukele would put it, “All the gangs know is violence,” and thus must be met with violence. This framing leaves progressive governments perpetually on the defensive, forced to prove their bravado by adopting policies that at the very least, in theory, fly in the face of leftist principles.
The left's consistent (and successful) approach, emphasizing socioeconomic development, public health interventions, drug decriminalization, negotiation, and targeted intelligence rather than mass militarization, has struggled to gain traction in a climate driven by right-wing narratives and fearmongering.
The fundamental problem is that leftist programs take years to bear actual results, while voters demand immediate security. The right, meanwhile, offers quick and strong-handed solutions that reassure voters. It is harder to kill monsters with microloan programs and harm reduction clinics than with tanks and M-16s.
When Former Mexican President Felipe Calderón launched his war on drugs in 2006, he targeted the Gulf Cartel and its armed wing, Los Zetas. The kingpin strategy eliminates cartel leaders, but each decapitation meant groups splintered, and each splintering produced more violence, creating an endless loop of violence until neoliberal President Enrique Peña Nieto was able to sign pacts with certain gangs before resuming the military approach.
During this period, the number of major cartels grew from about half a dozen to more than 200, operating across the country and the entire world. The homicide rate tripled, while many border cities have homicide rates well over 100 per 100,000. Now, hundreds of thousands are dead as a direct result.
Mexico finds itself once again at this crossroads, where it must choose wisely. El Mencho’s bras droit, “El Tuli,” was killed in a clash with security forces hours after. But, the pattern suggests that new leaders will emerge, and the violence will continue. Cartels are resilient, and can adapt to new leadership, new business structures, and market forces very reactively. Taking out one leader, or even the drug trade, won’t put them out of business.
Left-wing governments have struggled to respond without appearing weak. Some voices, particularly those outside of direct political power like academics, human rights advocates, and a few leftist intellectuals, have pointed out the dangers of returning to kingpin strategies, the inevitability of retaliation, and the way military operations invariably claim civilian lives.
So far, however, the Sheinbaum coalition and the left in Mexico have, for the most part, supported the operation, praying that embracing these shows of force can help the left reclaim dominance over the security debate. But, ceding ground to the right on security might risk alienating the rest of the left; shifting the Overton window to the right; and making politics, rather than policy solutions, determine the direction of Mexico’s Drug War.
Sheinbaum’s operation thus creates a profound paradox.
On one hand, demonstrating the ability to confront organized crime may help counter the narrative that progressive governments are soft on violence. On the other, history suggests that decapitation strategies rarely defeat cartels.
Removing El Mencho may weaken CJNG in the short term. But it could also ignite the next phase of Mexico’s drug war, one that extends far beyond the country’s borders and deeper into the Western Hemisphere.
Can you win the politics of security without reproducing the failures of the war on drugs? It may buy Sheinbaum and the left time to continue expanding the welfare state, strengthening institutions, and foolproof Mexican democracy, but it may also open the door for further weaponization of security to destroy that very progress later on.
The better alternative may be to instead embrace a true leftist, principled defense of nonviolent solutions, or, to theoretically and politically justify a security progressivism. Such will be the test of the Latin American left in the wake of rising right-wing populism on the back of security fears.
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US-Backed Killing of Cartel Boss Unleashes Wave of Violence Across Mexico
The killing of Mexico's top cartel leader, known as "El Mencho," has created a power struggle that "could plunge Mexico into almost record levels of violence," said one expert.
Feb 23, 2026
With support from the US, Mexican security forces killed one of the nation's most powerful cartel bosses on Sunday. Almost immediately, the country descended into violence and chaos.
The killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes—known as "El Mencho"—has set off a violent power struggle within the organization he led, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), which has left civilians caught in the crossfire.
As NBC News reported on Sunday evening:
Cars set on fire by cartel members blocked roads in nearly a dozen Mexican states and left smoke billowing into the air. Jalisco’s capital, Guadalajara, was turned into a ghost town Sunday night as civilians hunkered down. Later, authorities announced they had cleared most of the more than 250 cartel roadblocks across 20 states.
Several Mexican states canceled school Monday, and local and foreign governments warned citizens to stay inside as violence erupted.
The sudden outbreak of violence has created a state of terror for many ordinary people in Mexico. One Guadalajara resident, Maria Medina, told Agence France-Presse that men with guns showed up at the gas station where she works, ordered everyone to leave, and set the building on fire.
"I thought they were going to kidnap us. I ran to a taco stand to take cover with the people there," Medina said.
The US State Department has urged Americans in parts of Mexico to “seek shelter and remain in residences or hotels.” Many flights out of the country have been canceled, leaving tourists stranded.
Visitors at the popular Jalisco beach resort of Puerto Vallarta have been forced into hiding as gunmen have taken over the streets.
One father in Seattle told the local news station Fox 13 that he received frightened texts from his daughter, who was visiting the area, around 3:30 in the afternoon, describing the chaos.
“The text she sent, talking about, ‘The whole city is on fire, and we are hiding at home,'" he said. "'The cartel are outside right now watching the citizens and making sure the military does not come in. The police are not here to help. We are hiding.’“
According to one open-source effort to map the fallout, at least 19 of Mexico's 32 states had seen outbreaks of violence as of Sunday evening.
So far, no civilian deaths have been confirmed. However, according to the Associated Press, at least 25 members of the National Guard have been killed since El Mencho's death.
United States forces were not reportedly involved in the operation that led to El Mencho's death. However, US fingerprints are all over the attack.
In a statement on Sunday night, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the US "provided intelligence support to the Mexican government in order to assist with an operation" in which El Mencho was killed.
She added that "President [Donald] Trump has been very clear—the United States will ensure narcoterrorists sending deadly drugs to our homeland are forced to face the wrath of justice they have long deserved."
The attack comes after months of threats from Trump to use US military force to take out cartel leaders, against the wishes of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
At a press conference on Monday, Sheinbaum said that despite the previous day's chaos, "the country is at peace."
"We awoke today with no blockades,” she said. “All activity has practically been reestablished.”
Several news outlets have described the killing of El Mencho as a direct response to US sabre-rattling, which has ramped up following last month's operation to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
El Mencho, who founded CJNG around 2010, has been "public enemy number one" for the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) for nearly a decade, for his role in turning the cartel into a hyper-violent organization that coordinated global drug operations.
While CJNG has been considered one of the largest suppliers of Mexican fentanyl, heroin, and methamphetamine to the US—even greater than the more famous Sinaloa Cartel—experts say it’s unlikely that the killing of its 59-year-old kingpin will do much to solve the problem.
"What we've seen in the past is that the removal of the kingpin doesn't necessarily affect significant network disruption," Anthea McCarthy-Jones, an expert in Latin America at the University of New South Wales, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. "The removal of the leader doesn't have any impact on the day-to-day relations and the relationships that facilitate this kind of global drug trafficking operation."
US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau boasted that taking out “one of the bloodiest and most ruthless drug kingpins” was “a great development for Mexico, the US, Latin America, and the world."
But David Mora, the senior Mexico analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said it will likely trigger more instability.
"In the absence of a direct succession, a power vacuum is created that opens the door to violent realignments within the organization," Mora told AFP.
Chris Dalby, an organized crime expert who has written a book about the Jalisco cartel, told The Guardian that this power struggle could culminate in a full-scale civil war if no successor emerges to fill El Mencho's shoes.
“If no one can, if the CJNG finally splinters, you have four or five different lieutenants with the manpower, the weaponry, and the criminal empires to build their own fiefdoms—and that could plunge Mexico into almost record levels of violence," said Dalby.
The explosion of violence and instability following the death of just one cartel leader has mirrored what critics warned may follow if the US attempted to bring about the “total elimination” of drug cartels using airstrikes and special operations forces.
"At best, US military strikes in Mexico will weaken the cartels over the short term," wrote fellows Daniel DePetris and Christopher McCallion in a July paper for the think tank Defense Priorities. "At worst, they will cause the cartels to splinter even further, spiking the level of violence, straining the Mexican government’s military resources, and causing significant blowback against Americans in both Mexico and the United States."
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'What on Earth Is Going On?': FAA Reopens El Paso Airspace After Closure Order Sows Chaos
"No reason given. No one, not even military users, were apparently given advanced warning," said one veteran journalist. "Aside from 9/11, I can't remember anything like that."
Feb 11, 2026
Update: 9:50 am ET:
Just hours after ordering a halt to all airline traffic coming in and out of the El Paso International Airport, the FAA on Wednesday morning reversed the order and reopened the airspace in the city's region along the Texas border with Mexico.
In an agency social media post, the FAA said, "The temporary closure of airspace over El Paso has been lifted. There is no threat to commercial aviation. All flights will resume as normal."
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy claimed in a social media post that the FAA and the Defense Department “acted swiftly to address a cartel drone incursion. The threat has been neutralized, and there is no danger to commercial travel in the region.”
Earlier...
Speculation and alarm were triggered overnight after the Federal Aviation Administration, late Tuesday, with nothing more than "special security reasons” given as a reason, ordered the suspension of all incoming and outgoing flights from the airport in El Paso, Texas.
"What on Earth is going on?" asked Franklin Leonard, a contributing editor with Vanity Fair, in a reaction to the news—given the limited information provided by the federal government—that was similarly expressed by many online.
In a post on Instagram, the El Paso International Airport said, "All flights to and from El Paso are grounded, including commercial, cargo, and general aviation. The FAA has issued a flight restriction halting all flights to and from El Paso effective from February 10 at 11:30 PM (MST) to February 20 at 11:30 PM (MST)." No further details were given, and passengers were told to contact their carrier for status on specific flights.
Inevitable online speculation—including concerns about US military operations in Mexico, a connection to President Donald Trump's sweeping deportation operations, and other less plausible notions—was rife in the early hours of Wednesday morning as word spread of the closure. Others simply noted the unusual nature of the FAA order.
"So this is really strange," John Stempkin, a veteran news producer with NPR, said of the unexplained closure. "No reason given. No one, not even military users, were apparently given advanced warning. Aside from 9/11, I can't remember anything like that."
A statement from the airport said the grounding order had been given “on short notice” and that it was waiting for additional guidance from the FAA. In its notice, the FAA said the federal government “may use deadly force” against aircraft violating the airspace and determined to pose “an imminent security threat.”
The grounding of flights, noted the Associated Press, "is likely to create significant disruptions given the duration and the size of the metropolitan area. El Paso, a border city with a population of nearly 700,000 and larger when you include the surrounding metro area, is a hub of cross-border commerce alongside neighboring Ciudad Juárez in Mexico."
Reached by phone early Wednesday by the New York Times for his reaction, Representative Joaquin Castro, a Democrat who represents San Antonio, said he had no idea what was going on. “Sorry, I don’t have some clear answer,” Castro told the Times. Asked if he was surprised, the lawmaker simply said, “Yes.”
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