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"You are currently arming, funding, and defending a genocide in Gaza. That is how history will remember you."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was accused of stark hypocrisy on Saturday after he condemned the Myanmar military's genocide against the Rohingya people while simultaneously aiding Israel's genocidal assault on the Gaza Strip.
Marking the seventh anniversary of Myanmar's vicious ethnic cleansing of the stateless Rohingya, Blinken wrote on social media that "the United States continues to honor the victims and stand with the survivors as they seek justice and accountability for these atrocities."
Blinken also issued a statement highlighting the U.S. State Department's "extensive documentation of the atrocities and abuses committed against Rohingya and all civilians"—a sharp contrast with the Biden administration's reluctance to assess Israeli atrocities against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
"You are currently arming, funding, and defending a genocide in Gaza," Middle East researcher and analyst Assal Rad wrote in response to Blinken's statement. "That is how history will remember you, not your empty words."
U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) also weighed in, telling Blinken to "just stop trying to act like you care about genocide or human rights."
Under Blinken's leadership, the U.S. State Department has approved massive arms transfers to Israel—including a recent $20 billion sale—and provided diplomatic cover for the country's far-right government on the world stage, dismissing as "meritless" the South Africa-led genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
Israel has killed more than 40,400 people in Gaza since the October 7 Hamas-led attack. Most of those killed in Israel's assault have been women and children—including thousands of infants and toddlers.
In addition to perpetrating horrific war crimes in Gaza—often with U.S. weaponry—Israel has sold arms to Myanmar's military, even after the 2021 military coup.
"According to documents and sources who spoke with Haaretz," the Israeli newspaper reported last September, "the government-owned Israel Aerospace Industries and the Israeli arms maker Elbit Systems maintained their trade with Myanmar despite an international arms embargo on the country, and despite a 2017 ruling by Israel's High Court of Justice and the Israeli government's own 2018 statement saying it stopped such sales."
"Israel's longstanding relations with the different regimes controlling Myanmar have involved arms trade since the mid-20th century," Haaretz continued. "Even in the years in which the country was openly ruled by its military junta, Israel refused to stop the trade. The trade was maintained through the Rohingya genocide of 2016-17."
As a treaty conference began, the human rights group called for an end to arms transfers to Israel and said that unlawful deals have led to "devastating loss of life" in Gaza, Sudan, and Myanmar.
Amnesty International on Monday called for an end to arms transfers to countries including Israel, Sudan, and Myanmar, saying they cause "devastating loss of life" and contravene the Arms Trade Treaty, the parties to which are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland this week.
The United Nations treaty was signed by well over 100 countries in 2013 and went into effect in 2014, though 27 signatories, including the United States, the world's largest arms exporter, still haven't ratified the deal, which regulates the trade of conventional weapons including non-nuclear bombs, shells, and missiles.
"Numerous governments continue to brazenly flout the rules, leading to a huge loss of life in conflict zones," Patrick Wilcken, an Amnesty researcher, said in a statement. "It is time for state parties to live up to their legal obligations and fully implement the Arms Trade Treaty, to prohibit the flow of arms to countries when it is known they would be used for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes or if it could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international human rights or humanitarian law."
A decade since the signing of the Arms Trade Treaty some of the world’s biggest arms exporters are openly flouting the rules
This is leading to a devastating loss of life in conflict zones such as #Gaza, #Sudan & #Myanmar
States must adhere to the treatyhttps://t.co/lMBWcOfMeG
— Stefan Simanowitz (@StefSimanowitz) August 19, 2024
Amnesty called the transfer of arms to Israel a "stark example" of governments' failure to comply with the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). Though the U.S. is not a state party, as a signatory, it has a duty not to undermine the treaty's object and purpose, Amnesty's statement indicated.
"States parties and signatories, including the USA—the largest provider of arms to Israel—continue to license arms transfers to Israel in spite of overwhelming evidence of war crimes committed by Israeli forces," Wilcken said.
Experts have criticized the Biden administration for not pushing for ratification of the ATT, which the Obama administration helped devise but couldn't get through Congress. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced that he was "unsigning" the treaty, a symbolic act.
U.S.-manufactured weapons have been used in several unlawful Israeli airstrikes documented by Amnesty. Two such strikes on Gazan homes in October together killed 43 civilians, including 19 children and 14 women, and the bombing of another family home in Rafah in January killed 18 civilians, including 10 children and four women. The latter attack used a GBU-39 small diameter bomb manufactured by Boeing.
Amnesty released a report in April detailing the use of U.S.-made weapons in Israeli attacks that the rights group argued could constitute war crimes. American weapons have since been linked to several more devastating strikes, including the "tent massacre" in Rafah in late May, which killed at least 45, mostly women and children.
As @amnesty marks the 10th anniversary of the Arms Trade Treaty, we’re calling on states parties to urgently implement their obligations under this treaty and stop the transfer of arms to Israel.https://t.co/fqWQIh5RhQ
— amnestypress (@amnestypress) August 19, 2024
Amnesty has long called for a full arms embargo on Israel and armed Palestinian groups "because of longstanding patterns of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, including war crimes." Hamas and allied groups killed more than 1,100 Israelis in a brutal massacre on October 7.
The U.S. has delivered major arms to at least 107 countries since 2019 and accounts for 42% of global arms transfers, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In addition to highlighting U.S. arms dealing, Amnesty drew attention to China's role in two conflict zones, Sudan and Myanmar.
China, a state party to the ATT since 2020, is among the countries that have imported weapons and military equipment into Sudan, which has been locked in a horrifying civil war since April 2023 and, as a result, faces the world's worst displacement crisis and the prospect of a wide-scale famine that experts have warned could be the worst the world has seen in decades.
China has also supplied Myanmar's military junta, which retook power in a 2021 coup, Amnesty said.
"The Myanmar military has used these weapons to repeatedly attack civilians and civilian objects—often destroying or damaging schools, religious buildings and other key infrastructure—in the three years since carrying out a coup," Wilcken said.
The advocacy group Control Arms has issued updates of the Geneva conference on social media.
Amnesty is one of many nonprofit groups, including the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom, that have called for ATT state parties to stop transferring weapons to Israel.
Some of these nations have been dealing with simmering unrest which could erupt this year and seize the global spotlight.
Sadly, 2023 was a violent one on the global stage. War broke out between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, leading to the deaths of thousands of Palestinians and hundreds of Israelis, including many children on both sides. And the bitter war between Russia and Ukraine continued with no end in sight.
As a result of the focus on these two conflicts, other countries have dropped off the radar for many people. Some of these nations have been dealing with simmering unrest, however, which could erupt in 2024 and seize the global spotlight.
So, where should we be watching in the coming year? Here are five places where I believe civil conflicts or unrest could worsen and potentially lead to violence.
Myanmar descended into chaos in 2021 when a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked widespread civil protests that eventually morphed into an armed resistance.
The country, home to 135 ethnic groups, has rarely known peace. For years before the coup, there was a ongoing, low-grade civil conflict between the military and several minority ethnic groups who have long sought control over natural resources in their regions and independence from the state.
This exploded after the coup as ethnic militia groups joined forces with pro-democracy fighters from the Bamar majority protesting the junta.
The country’s civil war may worsen considerably in 2024 and regain international attention.
Their resistance escalated in late 2023 with a coordinated northern offensive dealing the military its most significant losses in many years.
Insurgents won control of towns and villages on the northeastern border with China, including control over key trade routes. This led to renewed fighting in western Rakhine state, as well as in other areas.
The tenacity of the resistance of these minority groups, paired with the refusal of the military to compromise, suggests the country’s civil war may worsen considerably in 2024 and regain international attention.
In Mali, a nation in the turbulent Sahel region of Africa, tensions escalated throughout 2023 and now threaten to erupt into full-scale civil war.
Mali has long battled insurgent activity. In 2012, Mali’s government fell in a coup and Tuareg rebels, backed by Islamist militants, seized power in the north.
A United Nations peacekeeping mission was established in 2013 to bring stability to Mali. Then, in 2015, key rebel groups signed a peace agreement with the Mali government.
With the 2015 peace agreement now all but dead, we can expect increased volatility in 2024.
After two more coups in 2020 and 2021, military officers consolidated their power and said they would restore the state’s full territorial control over all of Mali. The regime insisted the U.N. peacekeeping mission withdraw from the country, which it did in June 2023. Subsequently, violence broke out between the military and rebel forces over future use of the U.N. bases.
In November, the military, reportedly backed by Russia’s Wagner Group, took control of the strategic northern town of Kidal which had been held by Tuareg forces since 2012. This undermines the fragile peace that has held since 2015.
It is unlikely the military will regain complete control over all rebel-held areas in the north. At the same time, insurgents are emboldened. With the 2015 peace agreement now all but dead, we can expect increased volatility in 2024.
In 2019, widespread civil protest broke out in Lebanon against leaders who were perceived not to be addressing the day-to-day needs of the population.
The situation continued to deteriorate, with a reshuffled government, escalating economic crisis, and a massive port explosion that exposed corrupt practices.
Most recently, the war between Israel and Hamas has threatened to spill over to Lebanon, home to the Hezbollah militant group, which claims to have an army of 100,000 fighters.
The International Monetary Fund criticized Lebanon in September for a lack of economic reform. The Lebanese government has also failed to reach agreement on appointing a president, a post that has been vacant for more than a year.
This risks undermining the fragile power-sharing arrangement in Lebanon in which the key political posts of prime minister, speaker, and president are allocated to a Sunni-Muslim, Shia-Muslim, and Christian Maronite, respectively.
Most recently, the war between Israel and Hamas has threatened to spill over to Lebanon, home to the Hezbollah militant group, which claims to have an army of 100,000 fighters. Importantly, this jeopardises tourism as a key hope for Lebanon’s economic recovery.
These factors may precipitate a more serious economic and political collapse in 2024.
Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, the military has played an interventionist role in politics. Though Pakistani leaders are popularly elected, military officials have at times removed them from power.
In 2022, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan fell out of favor with Pakistan’s militant leaders. He was subsequently ousted from power in a parliament vote and later arrested on charges that his supporters claim are politically motivated.
Violent demonstrations broke out nationwide after his arrest—a display of anger against the military that was once unthinkable.
Pakistan also faces spillover from instability in neighboring Afghanistan and increased terror attacks. These security challenges have been compounded by a struggling economy and ongoing costs from the devastating 2022 floods.
Pakistan is expected to hold parliamentary elections in February 2024, after which the current military caretaker government is expected to transfer power back to civilian rule. Many are watching the military closely. If this transfer of power does not take place, or there are delays, civil unrest may result.
Sri Lanka faced a debilitating economic crisis in 2022 that led to critical fuel, food, and medical shortages. Civil protests caused then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. He was quickly replaced by current President Ranil Wickremesingh.
Stability returned in 2023 as Sri Lanka began implementing economic reforms as part of a bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund. However, widespread dissatisfaction with political elites and the underlying drivers of the country’s economic hardship have not been addressed.Elections are also due in Sri Lanka by late 2024. While Wickremesingh, the incumbent, is likely to run for a second term, he has low trust with the public. He is viewed as too close to corrupt political elites.
This dissatisfaction could lead to renewed protests—particularly if the economy stumbles again—in a repeat of the situation that led to Rajapaksa’s ousting in 2022.