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nationally determined contributions
New Biden Emissions Targets Seen as No Match for Looming Trump Attacks on Climate
With Donald Trump beginning his term next month, "it'll be up to states and other national leaders to defy Trump and move us quickly away from planet-heating fossil fuels."
Dec 19, 2024
With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in just over a month, green groups on Thursday greeted President Joe Biden's new climate goal with a blunt assessment of the likelihood of significantly slashing plant-heating fossil fuel emissions in the coming years.
Under Trump, said several advocates, meeting the goal set by Biden will take far-reaching action by state and local governments—as the incoming Republican president, who has dismissed the climate crisis as a "scam" and a "hoax," is expected to ramp up emissions with his plans to repeal key federal regulations.
Biden's announcement on Thursday pertained to the country's nationally determined contribution (NDC), which is required by the 2015 Paris climate agreement—a pact Trump has said the U.S. will exit after he takes office, as it did during his first term. The government's new climate target, Biden said, is a 61-66% emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2035.
The administration anticipates methane reductions of at least 35% from 2005 levels in 2035—a key component of achieving the NDC, as methane is more than 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.
The target is a significant step up from the one set in 2021, when Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030.
But Oil Change International said the goal set on Thursday underscores the Biden administration's overall approach to emissions reductions: a "failed strategy of counting on clean energy to displace fossil fuels without simultaneous efforts to stop fossil fuels," as U.S. campaign manager Collin Rees said.
In a video address, Biden said his efforts to invest billions of dollars into renewable energy technology and to regulate fossil fuel emissions from some power plants and other sources have amounted to "the boldest climate agenda in American history."
But by approving fossil fuel infrastructure like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, Biden has angered groups that have demanded the U.S. act on climate experts' warnings that continued oil and gas extraction has no place on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
"Under Biden, even as clean energy surged, America became the world's planet wrecker-in-chief, planning the largest oil and gas expansion of any country over the next decade," said Rees. "As history's largest polluter and second-biggest current emitter, the U.S. has a unique responsibility to lead on climate action. This NDC fails to deliver the bold commitments needed to halt America's booming oil and gas expansion and support vulnerable Global South nations bearing the brunt of a crisis they didn't cause."
Oil Change International applauded the president's acknowledgment that fossil fuels must be phased out—but emphasized that the NDC "doesn't commit to doing it."
The Rhodium Group estimated in a study this week that Biden's current climate policies could achieve a 38-56% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2035.
Last year, emissions were reduced about 17% from 2005 levels, but no significant reduction is expected this year because rising electricity demand has offset renewable energy progress, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But if Trump rolls back a majority of Biden's policies, like methane regulations unveiled earlier this year and subsidies and tax incentives for clean energy included in the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. may only be able to reduce its emissions by 24-40% by 2030.
"As history's largest polluter and second-biggest current emitter, the U.S. has a unique responsibility to lead on climate action."
The new percentage reduction goal in the new NDC was "good to see," said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity.
"But it'll be up to states and other national leaders to defy Trump and move us quickly away from planet-heating fossil fuels," said Su. "While Biden's pledge rightly reiterates the need to get off dirty energy, the real work lies in rooting out the corrupting political influence of oil, gas, and utilities. As climate deniers and corporate grifters sleaze into the White House, leaders at every level who actually care about the planet will have to fight twice as hard to hold polluters accountable for the economic and environmental havoc they're wreaking around the globe."
The U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of 24 governors whose states represent 57% of the U.S. economy and 54% of the population, pledged on Thursday to work together to achieve the NDC announced by Biden.
The alliance—whose governors represent states including California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota—said it has already "reduced its collective net greenhouse gas emissions by 19% between 2005 and 2022, while increasing collective GDP by 30%, and is on track to meet its near-term climate goal by reducing collective greenhouse gas emissions 26% below 2005 levels by 2025."
"The coalition's states and territories are collectively employing more workers in the clean energy sector, achieving lower levels of dangerous air pollutants, and preparing more effectively for climate impacts than the rest of the country," said the alliance.
U.S. Climate Alliance co-chair Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, said the NDC "will serve as our North Star, guiding us in the years to come and keeping America on track toward a cleaner, safer future."
Rachel Cleetus, policy director and lead economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said that though Biden's new NDC falls short "of what the science requires," it will also provide "an important benchmark to propel further climate action by cities, states, Tribal nations, and businesses in the years ahead."
"The strengthened U.S. NDC announced today by the Biden administration underscores that working together to collectively address climate change is in the best interest of the United States and the world," said Cleetus. "Cutting fossil fuel pollution sharply and building a thriving economy powered by clean energy is good for national prosperity and people's health and pocketbooks. It's encouraging to see the NDC also call for measures to address the full breadth and scope of heat-trapping emissions, including potent methane, across the economy."
But Cleetus emphasized that "much work remains to be done by world leaders and policymakers, especially if President-elect Trump—who seems hellbent on dismantling widely popular clean energy policies and boosting fossil fuel company profits—once again exits the Paris climate agreement."
"Today marks one of many important milestones on the path toward keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach for the betterment of current and future generations," she said.
Rees called on Biden to take other specific steps to cement his climate legacy and reduce U.S. emissions, including rejecting pending liquefied natural gas exports, shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline, and ending financing for international fossil fuel projects.
"With Trump looming, Biden is squandering his last chance to lock in ambitious commitments to stop the massive growth of oil and gas production—commitments that could guide future federal action and inspire immediate state and local initiatives," said Rees. "The clock is ticking—for the Biden administration and our planet."
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Climate Change Is Our Greatest Challenge Yet, But Humanity Was Built to Do Hard Things
With world leaders now gathering for this year’s United Nations climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, the urgency of collective action has never been greater. And it’s clear that governments can’t do it alone.
Nov 11, 2024
Recently I had the opportunity to speak with and learn from members of an Inuit community in East Greenland. One of the Indigenous leaders recounted how her mother was saved by the men and women of her community when she went into premature labor as they were crossing one of the fjords in a storm. Banding together, with only their survival skills and traditional practices, they were able to safely deliver the baby and save the mother.
Her story reveals the secret behind this Indigenous community’s success in such harsh and unforgiving conditions. Their strength lies in their deep connection to the land and sea, using age-old knowledge passed down through generations to live in harmony with nature. In a world of extreme cold and scarcity, they’ve built communities that endure, embodying resilience and resourcefulness. Watching their way of life, it’s clear: Humanity is built to do hard things.
That same potent mix of tenacity and ingenuity is now required on a global scale. With world leaders now gathering for this year’s United Nations climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan (COP29), new climate targets for 2035 are due at the start of next year. The urgency of collective action has never been greater. And it’s clear that governments can’t do it alone. It takes the entire tribe—a whole-of-society approach that includes businesses, civil society, and communities as well as governments working together—to achieve real progress.
Even without further federal support, high-ambition efforts from these groups alone could reduce U.S. emissions by 48% to 60% by 2035.
Last year’s summit saw nearly 200 countries make historic pledges to accelerate global renewable energy capacity and increase improvements in energy efficiency by 2030. They also committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels and deploying emerging technologies. Despite these commitments, we are still headed for a 2.9°C rise in global temperatures—far beyond the limits required to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. And the window to close the gap between our ambitions and the reality of our current situation is narrowing rapidly. To stabilize our climate, we must, like the Inuit and countless other societies around the world and throughout history, commit ourselves to doing hard things.
We are making progress towards our goals. The world is currently on a path to increase renewable power capacity by about two-and-a-half times from 2022 levels by the end of the decade. Likewise, energy efficiency is improving, with current annual gains of 2%. And yet, we must go even farther and faster.
To meet our renewable energy goals under the Paris agreement, we need to triple global renewable capacity in the next decade, and double energy efficiency to over 4% by 2030. Global fossil fuel demand needs to decline by more than a quarter by the end of the decade, instead of continuing to rise. This will require a dramatic and immediate acceleration in clean energy adoption and infrastructure development, such as the replacement of fossil fuels to heat and cool our buildings, and the expansion of electric vehicle charging networks. While wind power generation recently surpassed coal for the first time in U.S. history, a remarkable achievement, we need to push harder, putting in place a comprehensive solution for phasing out coal entirely.
COP29 presents an opportunity for a reset, as governments are expected to establish more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—formal pledges under the Paris agreement outlining each nation’s plan to reduce emissions. The U.S., which is the world’s largest economy and second-largest emitter, can and should lead by example, showcasing how all levels of society—federal, state, city, and business—can implement climate action at scale.
The U.S. has set a strong foundation, with its 2030 NDC including a goal for a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035 supported by historic investments from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Reaching this ambitious target also requires action by non-federal actors—state and local governments, businesses, and civil society—to close the gap. Renewable portfolio standards, state emission limits, and state electric vehicle incentives are effective tools to increase climate action. Even without further federal support, high-ambition efforts from these groups alone could reduce U.S. emissions by 48% to 60% by 2035.
Through the right policies, U.S. state and local governments can incentivize investments in local energy sources like rooftop solar panels. By reducing reliance on centralized energy production. individuals, communities, and businesses are empowered to take climate action into their own hands. Likewise, local and state-level coordination can avoid bottlenecks and streamline approvals needed to expand our clean energy infrastructure. Communities and frontline workers can identify areas of investment needed to make the transition to a low carbon future inclusive and equitable, so that no segment of society is left behind.
Nations around the world must adopt a similar whole-of-society approach if they hope to meet their climate targets and benefit all their citizens. The story of the Inuit saving one of their own in a storm is a vital reminder that survival takes teamwork. As we face the enormity of the climate crisis, let’s not forget that it’s in our bones to do hard things—and that we are strongest when we work together.
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3 Climate Priorities World Leaders Must Champion at the UN and Beyond
Will politicians seize this narrowing window of opportunity to do what is both daunting and necessary for safeguarding the future of people around the world especially our children?
Sep 25, 2024
This week, New York City is hosting the United Nations General Assembly meetings and the annual Climate Week events. With the continued trend of extreme climate-fueled disasters around the world—including deadly and damaging heatwaves, floods, fires, and storms—the urgency of solutions for the climate crisis couldn’t be clearer.
What we hear from world leaders this week will give us an indication of their seriousness in helping to secure an ambitious outcome at the annual U.N. climate talks, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan in November. Civil society groups will also be at Climate Week to demand action and remind world leaders of their responsibilities. And business leaders will have the opportunity to show whether they truly want to be part of the solution—or are just engaged in greenwashing while seeking short-term profits from carbon-intensive activities.
Here are three key international climate priorities that I will be paying close attention to this year.
1: Raising the Ambition of National Emissions Reduction Commitments, aka Nationally Determined Contributions
The latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the E.U.’s Copernicus climate service show that the 2024 January-August period is the hottest ever by far, putting this year well on track to be the warmest ever on record. Meanwhile, the global emissions trajectory is dangerously off track from where it needs to be to meet global climate goals, with heat-trapping emissions continuing to rise.
When countries signed on to the 2015 Paris agreement, they made initial voluntary commitments (the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) to reduce their heat-trapping emissions, and agreed to revisit them every five years to reflect the “highest possible ambition.” (see Articles 4.2 and 4.3 of the Paris agreement). By February 2025, the next round of NDCs is due and it’s clear that all countries—especially richer nations like the United States—will need to step up significantly if we are to have any chance of meeting the goals of the Paris agreement.
In its last NDC, back in 2021, the U.S. committed to cutting its emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. A range of state and federal policies—including the Inflation Reduction Act—currently puts it on track to cut emissions about 32-43% below 2005 levels by 2030. That means we’ll need to quickly add additional clean energy policies and policies to phase out fossil fuelsjust to meet our 2030 goals.
To meet global climate goals, all nations must increase their emissions reduction commitments and enact the enabling policies to meet them—especially richer nations and major emitting countries.
For the next round of NDCs, the U.S. should commit to cutting its heat-trapping emissions at least 70% below 2005 levels by 2035, a level that UCS modeling shows is possible, but that will require political will and significant new policies to achieve. In this context, the potential increase in energy demand to meet the emerging needs of AI data centers is worrisome and threatens to erode progress unless proactive measures are taken to manage possible impacts on the energy system in line with the pace of the clean energy transition. The next U.S. NDC should also be explicit about commitments to phase out fossil fuels in a fast and fair way and set ambitious sectoral targets for a clean energy transition, while addressing the need to invest in climate resilience as well.
A comprehensive suite of policies is needed to deliver on our NDC goals. For the decade ahead and beyond, we’ve got to think boldly and deploy policies and investments that help cut overall energy demand and enable a thriving lower-carbon economy and healthier lifestyles—including through better land use planning and development; more public transit; and more livable, walkable neighborhoods.
To meet global climate goals, all nations must increase their emissions reduction commitments and enact the enabling policies to meet them—especially richer nations and major emitting countries. In addition to the U.S., that includes the E.U. countries, Canada, Australia, Japan, Russia, China, and India. But we’re not going to get anywhere if each nation tries to dodge its responsibilities and points at the inaction of others. Rather, fostering cooperation and a shared commitment to increased ambition are the needs of the hour as we confront this collective action problem.
2. Increasing International Climate Finance
This year, at COP29, nations will also have to agree on the quantum of international climate finance that richer nations will provide post-2025 to help lower-income nations cut their heat-trapping emissions and adapt to climate change. These outcomes are being determined through multi-year negotiations on the “New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance” leading up to COP29, which is being billed as the climate finance COP.
Climate action will require considerable resources that low-income nations are unlikely to be able to marshal on their own. Furthermore, countries that have contributed the least to climate-warming emissions are now facing a disproportionate brunt of climate impacts stemming from the failure of richer nations to cut their outsize emissions. Article 2.1(c) of the Paris agreement calls for “Making finance flows consistent with a pathway toward low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.” The latest IPCC report also underscores how crucial this finance is to meet climate goals.
Back in 2009, richer nations committed to a goal of providing $100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020, a goal that was reaffirmed in Paris in 2015. That goal was finally met in 2022, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The U.S. and other richer nations should agree to collectively marshaling climate finance on the order of $1 trillion per year, starting in 2025.
The NCQG negotiations are aimed at delivering the next tranche of finance commitments. This time around, it’s clear that much more finance is necessary to meet the moment: funding to dramatically accelerate the clean energy transition and fossil fuel phaseout in lower-income nations, funding to help them adapt to the relentless impacts of climate change, and funding to help address extreme climate loss and damage. Failing to provide this finance not only risks the world’s ability to cut emissions sharply and quickly, it is also imposing an increasingly unjust toll on the least developed nations. A recent report from the World Meteorological Organization shows that, “On average, African countries are losing 2-5%of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many are diverting up to 9% of their budgets responding to climate extremes.”
The U.S. and other richer nations should agree to collectively marshaling climate finance on the order of $1 trillion per year, starting in 2025. And additional countries in a position to do so should also step up to contribute funding on a voluntary basis. Most of this funding should be grant-based or grant-equivalent to avoid trapping low-income nations in a worsening spiral of indebtedness as is the case currently. Innovative sources of funding—such as pollution taxes and wealth taxes—should be part of the discussion. Reforming international multilateral lending architecture to be fairer and more aligned with climate and sustainable development objectives is also critical.
U.S. contributions to international climate finance have repeatedly fallen short of what’s necessary. Congress, too, must step up since it holds the power of the purse. The United States must also help lead the ongoing negotiations at the OECD to restrict export credit support for all unabated fossil fuel projects, as it committed to do at COP26 in Glasgow, and as we have called for in a recent joint letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and U.S. Export-Import Bank Chair Lewis.
3. Defending Against Bad-Faith Actions From Fossil Fuel Interests
Fossil fuel interests are a perennial threat to climate progress, at home and abroad. Their presence at the annual climate talks has been increasing alarmingly. Unfortunately, at COP29 in Baku we are likely to see them out in full force again, trying to undermine and dilute global climate agreements. The crucial question is: Will policymakers stand up to that pressure from polluters and deliver what people need?
Last year at COP28, nations were finally able reach an agreement calling for a phase down of fossil fuels—the first time the root cause of climate change was addressed in a global climate agreement. The follow-through has been pretty mixed globally thus far. The U.S., for example, is still enabling surging levels of production of oil and gas. We need domestic policies that explicitly ensure that fossil fuels are being phased down, alongside ramping up renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Litigation efforts to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for damage caused by their products and for deceiving consumers and investors are gaining ground in domestic and international courts. These additional avenues to secure climate progress are likely to increase in importance, especially if policymakers’ efforts to curtail heat-trapping emissions and stand up to the fossil fuel lobby continue to fall short.
What Does Climate Ambition Mean in 2024?
Around the world, wars and extreme disasters are exacting a punishing toll on people and require urgent action from political leaders to seek solutions that bring peace and safety. The climate crisis, too, requires urgent attention. These intersecting crises must be dealt with at the same time and should not be cynically traded off against each other in competing for political attention or funding.
This year has been extraordinarily volatile politically, with “change” elections around the world inserting uncertainty in the future direction of climate policy. One thing we cannot lose sight of is that the measure of climate ambition is not set by politics but by what science shows is necessary to help limit the worst impacts of climate change. Ambition should also encompass justice, to help ensure that the climate outcomes we strive to secure meet the needs of those with the fewest resources on the frontlines of a crisis that is not of their making. Equally, the necessary phaseout of fossil fuels must be accompanied by just transition policies and investments for affected communities.
Here in the United States, regardless of the forthcoming election outcomes, we know the climate crisis is set to worsen and that without robust action, people and our economy will suffer as a result. That’s why we must push for policy solutions that increase the pace and magnitude of cuts in U.S. heat-trapping emissions, ramp up investments in climate resilience, and significantly increase our commitments toward international climate finance.
This will likely be the hottest year to date, and maybe one of the coolest in the years to come. Will politicians seize this narrowing window of opportunity to do what is both daunting and necessary for safeguarding the future of people around the world especially our children? Right now, the signs are not encouraging. We must demand much more of our leaders.
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