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neoliberalism
The One-Word Explanation for Trump's Stunning Victory?
Corporate media pundits will not tell you, because it remains at the core of their belief system. But neoliberalism is not just an economic doctrine, but a political project that has now ushered us into the abyss of fascism.
Nov 12, 2024
Donald Trump’s commanding victory over Kamala Harris seems to have surprised a lot of people both in the U.S. and around the world. Yet, it’s not surprising that Trump pulled off this victory, especially since polls predicted a tight race. What is surprising though is the scale of his victory. In a deeply divided society with a two-party system, one would have expected that either candidate would have won by a narrow margin.
Trump’s victory, which will have a wide-ranging impact on all aspects of U.S. society and will reverberate through the global political economy, represents a genuine political earthquake. He won the electoral college and the popular vote by expanding his coalition with historic demographic shifts. Even democratic heartlands saw large swings toward Trump, while Kamala Harris underperformed with both women (thus indicating that abortion was much less of a key issue than people thought it would be in the 2024 presidential election) and young voters. Young male voters, in particular, swung toward Trump in a big way as Kamala Harris not only put women on top of her agenda but, in turn, had very little to say about men. As for the loss of the working-class vote, which so much has already been said and written about it, suffice to say that Harris also had nothing to say to the mass of citizens facing economic hardship. Strangely enough, Harris and the Democrats in general did not even try to convey to the public some of the success that Biden’s economic policies had in contributing to growth and employment.
What the next four years will bring from the Trump administration may be unlike anything the United States has experienced in modern times.
Kamala Harris could not convince the voters. A considerable majority of the electorate did not share her priorities. That much is obvious. Following her loss to Donald Trump, Democratic National Committee finance committee member Lindy Li made a telling comment when she said that Harris’ bid for the White House was a “$1 billion disaster.”
Indeed, Democrats’ humiliating losses in the 2024 elections has sparked infighting and finger pointing about what went wrong and where the party goes from here. Whether Kamala Harris was the right choice for the Democrats is now of course an academic question. But it may be of interest to see what the New York Times said about Harris in November 2019: “Ms. Harris is the only 2020 Democrat who has fallen hard out of the top tier of candidates. She has proved to be an uneven campaigner who changes her message and tactics to little effect and has a staff torn into factions.”
The emerging consensus on Trump’s reelection is that it was fueled by the economy. But what exactly does this mean? Between the final quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy under the Biden-Harris administration was in rather good shape. Unemployment was at its lowest level in decades, wages were rising (though it’s not clear at all if Americans’ pay has fully recovered from inflation), and the GDP was expanding above the trend. In fact, the U.S. economy has been growing faster than any other advanced economy by a wide margin. And the inflation has steadily cooled over the past couple of years.
Now, we do know of course that there was a mismatch in U.S. economy perception and reality, and that a Harris-Guardian poll conducted in the spring of 2024 had in fact revealed that almost everything that most Americans believed about the economy was wrong. However, all this can be explained by the fact that economies are too complex to be summed up by just a couple of indicators. A person’s perception of a country’s economic health can be influenced by one’s own economic status, pessimism about the overall direction of the economy based on comparisons about economic conditions even with the rather distant past, and sentiments about the role of government and even the public’s voice in government and politics. People who feel disconnected from the political system and have dismal views about the nation’s politics are not likely to express positive views about the state of the economy. In other words, perceptions about the state of the economy can be influenced by political biases.
The notion that Trump’s re-election was fueled not so much by the actual state of the economy but rather by voter anxiety over the general direction of the economy and who is really in charge of government in the United States would have made more sense. Most voters don’t feel economically stable or secure. They are aware of the growing economic inequalities and worry about job security. Surveys have consistently found that most workers in the U.S. can’t afford an emergency expense even of a few hundred dollars. For most U.S. adults, the American dream no longer holds true, including a staggering 80 percent among people under the age of 30.
Let’s call things by their proper names. It is the cumulative effects of neoliberalism on economic wellbeing, social cohesion, and democratic politics that explains the pessimism that exists in people’s minds about the direction of the economy and the condition of the country overall. It is the disastrous effects of neoliberalism that can explain the latest realignment of the U.S. electorate and Trump’s decisive victory over Kamala Harris. It is the dysfunctional U.S. economic system in its totality that has given rise to authoritarian demagogues like Donald Trump who promise unhappy and angry voters a return to a golden age.The economic, political, social, and cultural dominance of neoliberalism has facilitated the rise of authoritarian populism and the far right not only in the United States but throughout the world. Here, I define neoliberalism not only as an economic doctrine primarily characterized by free markets, globalization, liberalization, massive deregulation, shifts away from social welfare programs, and the redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital, but also as a political project that aims to undo the demos and is carried out by the dominant economic classes through a brutal form of class warfare and with the explicit aim of capturing the political system and hijacking the state as the implementation of neoliberal policies requires large-scale intervention in the capitalist economy; and, equally important, as a sociopolitical ideology that puts individual self-interest before the common good, displays indifference to economic and social inequality and subsequently justifies plutocracy, offers acceptance to unequal power distribution, and transfers responsibility to individual agents.
Neoliberalism has attained a hegemonic position as an economic doctrine and sociopolitical ideology in much of the developed world and permeates the entire mainstream political space. Across Europe, social democratic and socialist parties have become virtually indistinguishable from conservative and right-wing political parties. In the U.S. the Carter, Clinton and Obama administrations pushed neoliberalism as the only viable alternative. Subsequently, what we have seen over the past twenty or so years across the developed capitalist world is the resurgence of ethno-nationalism, the rise of far-right political movements and political parties, and neofascist leaders like Orban in Hungary and Meloni in Italy and proto-fascists like Trump in the United States rising to power through the ballot box.
The new breed of authoritarian populists like Trump has emerged precisely because neoliberal capitalism has created so much discontent and anger that it needs a new model of governance to keep the system intact. And it comes in the form of proto-fascism or neo-fascism. Trumpism is an extreme far-right ideology that attacks democracy and seeks to disband progressive social agendas while promoting a new and more ruthless form of market liberalization. Trumpism is best defined as neoliberal fascism.
Unfortunately, as the traditional parties of the left have themselves embraced the neoliberal orthodoxy and the postmodern left has become obsessed with cultural issues and anti-racism at the expense of economic issues, a very sizeable chunk of the working class has been duped by the new breed of authoritarian populists and put its trust in turn in their hands in hopes of a better future. This is the tragedy of the Left. For without radical political leadership for guidance and inspiration, the working class of today fails to recognize neoliberal capitalism as the problem and has been made in turn to look for scapegoats. This is what Trump has managed to do with his vicious attacks on immigrants, undoubtedly more successfully than any other authoritarian demagogue in the western world.
Like their predecessors, the new breed of authoritarian demagogues with proclivities to fascist rhetoric like Trump are homogenizing nationalists. But with the U.S. being one of the most ethnically diverse and multicultural nations in the world, Trump knew he had to expand his voter base if he were to be successful in his bid for reelection. The fact that his message got through with black, Latino and Asian voters is nothing short of amazing. It seems that the more racist Donald Trump sounds, the more voters he attracts from minority groups. Indeed, the Republican Party is now less white than ever before, and that has to be a very distressing development for the future of the Democratic Party.
What the next four years will bring from the Trump administration may be unlike anything the United States has experienced in modern times. Trump feels he has a powerful mandate, which is hard to argue against, to fulfill his campaign promises. Deportations and closing the border, drilling, pardons, tariffs, targeting journalists, and signing executive orders for schools pushing “critical race theory” and “gender identity” could be among the first promises he may try to fulfill. The restructuring of the U.S. government will take time, and it is unlikely that the second Trump administration will be as disorganized and chaotic as the first.
Progressives and radicals should prepare for what lies ahead. We do live in interesting times.
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How Did I Correctly Predict That Trump Would Win?
By early October, it was clear to me that Trump would win not so much because he had a more attractive vision for the future, but because he was able to capitalize on people’s fears.
Nov 08, 2024
Nearly a month before the November 5 elections, I anticipated that Donald Trump would win and wrote about it in a couple of articles. My “prediction” created some controversy, especially since the polls showed Harris and Trump in a dead heat. Not surprisingly, people have been asking me the last few days how I came out with a call that, to some, had at the time no empirical basis and, to others, was an assault on their political sensibilities.
It’s not really rocket science. Inflation was just running rampant, with over 20 percent cumulative inflation in four years. I went almost every spring to teach in New York for six weeks, and I was shocked to see how high prices had risen since the year before. One could gauge the popular mood in forays to the supermarket, where the joy had gone out of the great American pastime of shopping, and people trudged along the aisles with a grimace on their faces as they stared at food prices that seemed to be escalating weekly.
When one turned on the television, one was assailed with images of migrants coming in droves over the border with Mexico, with border patrol agents shaking their heads. Middle-class people in the Northeast were waking up in shock to find migrants suddenly in their midst, deposited there courtesy of border-state governors who went on televised harangues justifying their acts by saying they wanted to give “blue state people” a taste of of “uncontrolled migration” brought about by Democratic Party policies.
Opportunity and crisis are twins. You can’t get to the new world without overcoming monsters…and there is no guarantee of victory.
Then, especially since October 2023, there were very real fears about the United States being sucked into the expanding war in the Middle East, that the Biden administration had lost control of its Middle East policy to Israel, and that this was triggering domestic unrest that was brought to living rooms nightly by images of campus confrontations and massive arrests. Then in the last few weeks before the vote, with Israel bombing Lebanon and carrying out strategic assassinations in Iran and elsewhere, then bombing Iran itself, there was widespread alarm that Tel Aviv was intent on dragging the United States into active combat and the Biden administration was helplessly looking on.
The overall sense you got talking to ordinary people in the spring was one of loss of control–that the Biden administration had lost control of the economy, of the border, and foreign and defense policy. This sense of no reliable hand at the helm of the ship of state could only deepen in the summer and fall, with Biden’s horrible debate performance and his replacement as presidential candidate by Harris. By early October, it was clear to me that Trump would win not so much because he had a more attractive vision for the future, but because he was able to capitalize on people’s fears about the economy, the border, and war and turn that unease into an active negative force against the Democrats. The 2024 election was largely a vote against Democratic ineptitude, just as the 2020 election was a vote against the chaos of Trump’s first presidency.
The bad news is that the far-right MAGA folks will try to translate this protest vote into an ultra-right program of governance that, if they succeed, will make American-style liberal democracy a thing of the past.
If one agrees with this undoubtedly impressionistic analysis, then two things follow. First, the electoral outcome was determined mainly by a popular reaction to conjunctural factors—inflation, border chaos, and the threat of war. Second, this was not a vote for fascism or authoritarianism, contrary to the panicked reactions of some liberal pundits–though of course, there was a far-right component in the Trump vote.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that the far-right MAGA folks will try to translate this protest vote into an ultra-right program of governance that, if they succeed, will make American-style liberal democracy a thing of the past. Fortunately, the people of the United States, flawed though their democracy may be, have a democratic common sense. But that common sense needs good progressive leadership to be brought to the fore and converted into a vigorous political force. And, in this connection, there is another piece of good news: the discredited generation of Democratic Party leaders–the Clintons, Obama, Pelosi, Biden, Harris–with their advocacy of neoliberal policies coupled with promotion of liberal empire, will finally be jettisoned and the decks cleared for the emergence of a new generation of young progressive leaders unfettered by past ideological and policy paradigms.
The great Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci had a characterization of the early twentieth century that is also apt for our times: “The old world is dying, and the new is struggling to be born. Now is the time of monsters.” Opportunity and crisis are twins. You can’t get to the new world without overcoming monsters…and there is no guarantee of victory.
But perfect I am not, and while I anticipated a Trump victory, I did not foresee just how bloody sweeping it would be.
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Progressives Must Challenge for the Leadership of the Democratic Party—and Win
We must now be ready to stand up at this challenging moment in our history, confident that our policy agenda suits the needs of 21st century America and provides a pathway out of America’s interminable political crisis.
Nov 07, 2024
Tuesday’s election results were dire, but now is not the time for progressives to retreat. American society will be best served by a progressive movement that plays strong defense and offense.
Progressives must continue to be vigilant in defending democracy, the rule of law, and the constitutional republic. In order to be most effective on these matters, we should maintain our recent alliance with liberals and conservatives of conscience. On every other matter, we should speak as the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party, the group whose platform is supported by the vast majority of Democrats.
We must lead in protecting the environment and vulnerable communities, both at home and abroad.
Solidarity with organized labor will be a priority during Trump 2.0. Unions will face a hostile National Labor Relations Board. Vigilance will be required to preserve labor’s recent gains. When there’s a strike or an organizing drive, progressives must have a presence on the picket line, calling Trump’s bluff and exposing his contempt for labor.
Only progressives advocate for time-tested policies and programs that will build the prosperous middle class society that the majority of the country so clearly wants.
The Republican Party is winning elections by attracting the working class away from a Democratic Party dominated by its neoliberal moderate faction. However, the GOP is mainly gaining working class support because Trump gives expression to shared grievances, not because the GOP is proposing policies that will help working people economically.
Only progressives advocate for time-tested policies and programs that will build the prosperous middle class society that the majority of the country so clearly wants. It is incumbent upon progressives to make the case to our fellow Democrats and to the general public that progressive economics should define the Democratic Party agenda going forward.
There should be no equivocation in our messaging, just three simple points:
1. The economic program of moderate Democrats and Republicans (aka neoliberalism) destroyed the American middle class;
2. Trump’s economics have failed to re-build it; and
3. Progressive economic policy created the wealthiest middle class in the history of the world in the years after World War II. It’s time to give progressive economics a try in the 21st century.
So, expect PDA and progressives to respond to Tuesday’s results by being very active and promoting our positions. Indeed, the Democratic Party is clearly in crisis following the election, we need to step up and make the case—for the benefit of the party and, more importantly, the people, the country, and the planet—that progressive policies should define the party going forward.
However, we also need to show humility and do some soul searching. Too often, the left dismisses all criticism out of hand. This must change. We need to accept that conservatives and moderates have effectively misrepresented progressives as extremists, and take action to change this perception. We must re-establish that we are an inclusive political movement that respects everyone’s voice and is fully committed to maximizing freedom and liberty for all Americans.
Progressives are ready to stand up at this challenging moment in our history, confident that our policy agenda suits the needs of 21st century America and provides a pathway out of America’s interminable political crisis.
* * *
On Wednesday, Bernie Sanders shared his thoughts on the results of the election. As usual, he was right on point. Bernie condemned the influence of big money in the Democratic Party, and the party's failure to fight for the working class.
We must step up now and take initiative to bring the Democratic Party into line with Sanders' vision
I also happened to stumble upon James Carville's reflections. Carville correctly diagnoses the leadership void in the Democratic Party and calls for immediate action. Not surprisingly, however, Carville does not suggest a role for progressives in leading the Party forward.
Put the two together, and the course of action for progressives is clear. We cannot hesitate or we will miss our opportunity. Rather, we must step up now and take initiative to bring the Democratic Party into line with Sanders' vision—one which matches the politics of the party's base and has majority support among the general population.
After the 2016 election, Keith Ellison, a great progressive, challenged the Democratic Party leadership and almost won. However, control of the party apparatus remained in the hands of the moderate faction. Fast forward eight years to the present, and that leadership has taken us to the exact same point of failure as in 2016: Donald Trump is president-elect, the Senate and likely the House will be under GOP control.
You have to be willfully ignorant not to understand what this is telling us.
Progressives must challenge for the leadership of the Democratic Party—and we must win.Keep ReadingShow Less
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