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Leaked US Intel on Iran Attack Plans Also Confirms Israeli Nuclear Weapons
Another of the alleged documents, which multiple outlets have been told appear authentic, confirm U.S. spying on Israeli military forces and shows "a strike on Iran" is "almost certainly" coming.
Oct 20, 2024
"We have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon."
That sentence is the concluding line from an allegedly leaked (or hacked) U.S. intelligence document posted online this week and later reported on by Axios, CNN, and other outlets.
As Axios reported on Saturday, "U.S. officials are extremely concerned about a potentially major security breach after two alleged U.S. intelligence documents about Israel's preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran."
The Associated Press and independent investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein both cited government sources who said the documents appeared to be authentic. While U.S. officials have yet to comment publicly on the material, reporting confirmed an investigation into their authenticity and how they came to be in the public domain was underway.
Since a barrage of missile strikes aimed at military targets in Israel by Iran on Oct 1, a retaliatory strike in response to Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other attacks, the world has been waiting for Israel's promised military response.
Assuming the documents are authentic, what they show is that U.S. intelligence—as is well known and despite being close allies—keeps a close and clandestine eye on Israeli military operations.
CNN cited an unnamed U.S. official who called the documents being made public "deeply concerning," though the outlet did not publish the documents in full. The documents, according to CNN,
are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its "Five Eyes" allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.
Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.
It has long been known that Israel has a nuclear weapons program and maintains a nuclear arsenal, but it remains both Israeli and U.S. government policy never to acknowledge or confirm the existence of either. In one of the documents, the U.S. specifically references Israel's ability to deploy a nuclear weapon, though it categorizes the threat of doing so in this case as low.
Independent journalist Ken Klippenstein, recently banned from X for posting an internal opposition research dossier that the Trump campaign had compiled on JD Vance, posted images of both documents to his substack page, as he excoriated major outlets for refusing to do.
"As with the J.D. Vance Dossier, which the entire media knew about but refused to publish, it appears the media has once again lost its nerve – and its sense of what's news," Klippenstein wrote.
According to Klippenstein's assessment:
The intelligence report includes a rundown of the various aspects of Israeli military activities that the U.S. is monitoring to inform its judgments and conclusions: weapons handling, air defense, ground forces, Navy, Air, Special Forces, and even Israel’s Nuclear Forces. But even then, only the weapons handling and special forces categories are identified as having a “medium” predictive ability in regards to determining Israel’s action; the rest are designated “low” predictive ability.
The second intelligence report is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran and Conducts a Second Large-Force Employment Exercise.” The document details Israeli activities during an evident “mission rehearsal” (in U.S. lingo) that could be indicative of how Israel will strike Iran. Citing imagery analysis and other sources, the NGA report notes that the Israeli Air Force is already conducting covert drone operations over Iran (evidently doing its own spying), and how, as part of Israeli Air Force activity, has been handling air-launched ballistic missiles and other weapons.
Defending release of the full documents, he explained that both provide "insight of enormous public interest as we stand at the precipice of a broader conflict" and contained "information that directly bears upon U.S. obligations and actions. It is for that reason that I've decided to publish the basic documents."
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Critics Question Timing of Russian Space Nuke Warnings as House Debates Spying Reforms
"This threat is emerging the day before a vote on reauthorizing vast domestic spying capabilities?" wrote one journalist. "What are the chances!"
Feb 15, 2024
The House Republican leadership on Wednesday abruptly canceled planned floor votes on mass surveillance reforms shortly after unnamed U.S. intelligence officials told multiple news outlets that Russia has made alarming progress on a space-based nuclear weapon purportedly designed to target American satellites.
The timing of the intelligence leak raised suspicions among journalists and lawmakers who support reforms to Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), authority that allows U.S. agencies to spy on non-citizens located outside of the country.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation and National Security Agency have regularly abused Section 702 to collect the data of American journalists, activists, and even members of Congress without a warrant—abuses that have spurred the latest push for reforms.
"Very interested to learn about this threat," said Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who is part of the ideologically diverse coalition that wants substantive FISA changes. "Also very interested to know why the spy guys are raising mysterious alarms right before we're about to reform illegal domestic surveillance under FISA."
Lee's comment came in response to a vaguely menacing statement from Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
Turner said Wednesday morning that the committee provided all members of Congress with "information concerning a serious national security threat," without providing any specific details.
"I am requesting that President [Joe] Biden declassify all information related to this threat so that Congress, the administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat," added Turner, an outspoken supporter of upholding federal agencies' mass spying authority under Section 702.
The Intercept's Ken Klippenstein noted that Turner "has tweeted out support for 702 at least a dozen times in the past year alone."
"I wonder if that has anything to do with his decision to apprise us of this ominous threat!" Klippenstein wrote in his newsletter.
Klippenstein's colleague at The Intercept, Daniel Boguslaw, had a similar reaction to Turner's statement.
Wow. This threat is emerging the day before a vote on reauthorizing vast domestic spying capabilities? And the head of the house intel wants to declassify it? What are the chances! https://t.co/2sKCn3P3nY
— Daniel Boguslaw (@DRBoguslaw) February 14, 2024
Reporting byThe New York Times, ABC News, and other prominent outlets soon made clear that the secret information Turner referenced was related to Russian anti-satellite weaponry, which Moscow has been working on for years.
But officials and lawmakers privy to the intelligence, which was reportedly obtained under Section 702 authority, were quick to stress that the "serious national security threat" that Turner invoked was in no way imminent.
"It is a serious national security issue in the medium-to-long term that the Congress and the administration need to focus on," said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. "But no need to buy gold."
Which begs the question: If the supposed threat to U.S. national security isn't urgent, why did Turner choose to raise the issue a day before the House was set to vote on whether to reform and reauthorize Section 702?
Citing one unnamed U.S. official, The Washington Postreported that Turner "appears to want to use the information about the adversary capability to convince skeptical colleagues that 702 is an indispensable intelligence tool."
"Lawmakers in the House and Senate have been in possession of the raw intelligence concerning the foreign capability for several weeks and were preparing to learn how the administration might respond," the Post added. "Turner's disclosure could make that response more difficult if it revealed information about how the intelligence was obtained in the first place."
In the wake of the flurry of news stories on the U.S. intelligence, Raj Shah, a spokesperson for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), announced on social media that the GOP leadership has decided to postpone a vote on Section 702 reform and reauthorization indefinitely "to allow Congress more time to reach consensus."
Without congressional action, Section 702 will expire on April 19.
"The FBI's boosters on the Intelligence Committee are afraid to vote on key reforms—but these votes are long overdue and something the American people deserve."
Elizabeth Goitein, co-director of the Liberty and National Security program at the Brennan Center for Justice, called Johnson's decision to cancel Thursday's votes "jaw-dropping" and accused members of the House Intelligence Committee of "waging a propaganda campaign" to tank popular, bipartisan reform efforts.
Last month, the House Judiciary Committee overwhelmingly passed legislation that would require "all intelligence agencies and the FBI to obtain a warrant from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) before conducting any query of a U.S. person," along with other reforms.
The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence passed its own bill that Goitein argued is "designed to look like reform while doing nothing at all," allowing the FBI to "continue abusing Section 702."
Because the House judiciary panel has jurisdiction over surveillance matters, Johnson should have run with its bipartisan bill, Goitein wrote.
"Instead, Johnson orchestrated a new bill, framed as a 'compromise' but in fact closely tracking HPSCI's bill," Goitein wrote, alluding to the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act.
Let’s review. The Chair of HPSCI made a public statement that frightened the American people, may have compromised intelligence sources, and was wholly unnecessary given the absence of any urgent threat, in order to gin up a new (bogus) argument against Section 702 reform. 12/13
— Elizabeth Goitein (@LizaGoitein) February 15, 2024
Sensing broad support for reform, Section 702 supporters on Wednesday gummed up the works during a House Rules Committee hearing on the new legislation. Johnson then yanked the bill, which reform advocates were trying to amend to include greater privacy protections.
Jake Laperruque, deputy director on surveillance at the Center for Democracy and Technology, said in a statement that "privacy advocates and Judiciary Committee leadership made clear this week that we are ready and eager to vote on FISA, and the surveillance loopholes that are misused to evade warrant rules."
"The FBI's boosters on the Intelligence Committee are afraid to vote on key reforms—but these votes are long overdue and something the American people deserve," Laperruque added. "It's time to stop punting and bring the debate over warrantless FISA surveillance to the House floor."
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Snowden Warns Today's Surveillance Technology Makes 2013 Look Like 'Child's Play'
"We trusted the government not to screw us," said Edward Snowden. "But they did. We trusted the tech companies not to take advantage of us. But they did. That is going to happen again, because that is the nature of power."
Jun 08, 2023
With this week marking 10 years since whistleblower Edward Snowden disclosed information to journalists about widespread government spying by United States and British agencies, the former National Security Agency contractor on Thursday joined other advocates in warning that the fight for privacy rights, while making several inroads in the past decade, has grown harder due to major changes in technology.
"If we think about what we saw in 2013 and the capabilities of governments today," Snowden told The Guardian, "2013 seems like child's play."
Snowden said that the advent of commercially available surveillance products such as Ring cameras, Pegasus spyware, and facial recognition technology has posed new dangers.
As Common Dreams has reported, the home security company Ring has faced legal challenges due to security concerns and its products' vulnerability to hacking, and has faced criticism from rights groups for partnering with more than 1,000 police departments—including some with histories of police violence—and leaving community members vulnerable to harassment or wrongful arrests.
Law enforcement agencies have also begun using facial recognition technology to identify crime suspects despite the fact that the software is known to frequently misidentify people of color—leading to the wrongful arrest and detention earlier this year of Randal Reid in Georgia, among other cases.
"Despite calls over the last few years for federal legislation to rein in Big Tech companies, we've seen nothing significant in limiting tech companies' ability to collect data."
Last month, journalists and civil society groups called for a global moratorium on the sale and transfer of spyware like Pegasus, which has been used to target dozens of journalists in at least 10 countries.
Protecting the public from surveillance "is an ongoing process," Snowden told The Guardian on Thursday. "And we will have to be working at it for the rest of our lives and our children's lives and beyond."
In 2013, Snowden revealed that the U.S. government was broadly monitoring the communications of citizens, sparking a debate over surveillance as well as sustained privacy rights campaigns from groups like Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) and Fight for the Future.
"Technology has grown to be enormously influential," Snowden told The Guardian on Thursday. "We trusted the government not to screw us. But they did. We trusted the tech companies not to take advantage of us. But they did. That is going to happen again, because that is the nature of power."
Last month ahead of the anniversary of Snowden's revelations, EFF noted that some improvements to privacy rights have been made in the past decade, including:
- The sunsetting of Section 215 of the PATRIOT Act, which until 2020 allowed the U.S. government to conduct a dragnet surveillance program that collected billions of phone records;
- The emergence of end-to-end encryption of internet communications, which Snowden noted was "a pipe dream in 2013";
- The end of the NSA's bulk collection of internet metadata, including email addresses of senders and recipients; and
- Rulings in countries including South Africa and Germany against bulk data collection.
The group noted that privacy advocates are still pushing Congress to end Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which permits the warrantless surveillance of Americans' communications, and "to take privacy seriously," particularly as tech companies expand spying capabilities.
"Despite calls over the last few years for federal legislation to rein in Big Tech companies, we've seen nothing significant in limiting tech companies' ability to collect data... or regulate biometric surveillance, or close the backdoor that allows the government to buy personal information rather than get a warrant, much less create a new Church Committee to investigate the intelligence community's overreaches," wrote EFF senior policy analyst Matthew Guariglia, executive director Cindy Cohn, and assistant director Andrew Crocker. "It's why so many cities and states have had to take it upon themselves to ban face recognition or predictive policing, or pass laws to protect consumer privacy and stop biometric data collection without consent."
"It's been 10 years since the Snowden revelations," they added, "and Congress needs to wake up and finally pass some legislation that actually protects our privacy, from companies as well as from the NSA directly."
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