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Faced with a troubling report that reveals multiple pipe defects, Mountain Valley Pipeline spins and misrepresents.
Almost four months after high-pressure water testing blew a
gaping hole in an elbow pipe fitting section of the Mountain Valley Pipeline on Bent Mountain in Virginia, the pipeline operator filed a report with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on August 29 addressing the cause of the pipe failure.
The incident, which occurred on May 1, roughly six weeks before MVP went into operation, was first noted by local land owners, who observed sediment in a nearby stream, reported it to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), and then photographed the burst pipe as it was hauled away a day later.
MVP sent the 43-page report to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) on August 28, a day before the report was filed with FERC. In June, PHMSA and MVP entered into a consent agreement to resolve a 2023 notice of proposed safety order, which had alleged that conditions existed along MVP’s route through West Virginia and Virginia that posed “an integrity risk to public safety, property, or the environment.”
This fight will continue until MVP is held accountable and this ruinous disaster is stopped before the unthinkable happens.
MVP’s report—and the company’s reaction to it—leave more questions unanswered than answered.
But one thing is clear: MVP tried to mislead PHMSA and FERC, as well as the press and the public at large, by including with the report filing a two-page cover letter that downplayed the incident and omitted crucial information contained in the report.
Also troubling—and unexplained—the report went through three drafts, dated July 23, August 1, and August 21. It was prepared by risk management firm DNV GL USA, which described MVP as its “customer.”
MVP provided DNV with a 12.5-foot section of pipe that contained the burst elbow fitting as well as two smaller sections (1.5 feet and one foot) from a “sister fitting” from the same test section.
MVP claimed in its cover letter that the sister elbow fitting was the only piece of pipe along the 303-mile long pipeline that had a “matching pedigree.” It gave no supporting evidence, nor did it even describe what it meant by “matching pedigree,” and DNV did not address the claim, much less verify it.
DNV did tensile tests on the blown pipe and “duplicate tensile tests” on the two samples from the sister fitting. The purpose of the analysis was “to determine the metallurgical cause of the failure and identify any contributing factors.”
DNV concluded that “the elbow fitting failed at the longitudinal seam weld as a result of ductile overload.” Ductile overload is “the failure mode that occurs when a material is simply loaded to beyond its ultimate tensile strength.” That seems simple enough. Indeed, it is almost self-evident. Obviously, the pipe burst because pressure was put on it that was beyond its capacity to bear. But that does not tell you why there was ductile overload.
DNV reported that “a majority of the failure was at or near the fusion boundary of the seam weld metal and base metal, indicating a lower tensile strength at or near the fusion boundary compared to the base metal and weld metal.”
That brings us to the second goal of the testing: to determine contributing factors. And that’s where the report gets very interesting—and very scary:
Contributing factors to the lower tensile strength at or near the fusion boundary was (sic) softening of the base metal mid-thickness... and possibly a yield strength lower than the requirement as the base metal yield strength of the sister elbow fitting did not meet the yield strength requirement.
Here, DNV is talking about two different defects in the pipe that burst, and a different defect in the sister pipe.
First, there was inadequate tensile strength , which is the maximum stress that can be applied before an object breaks, in the pipe that burst.
Second, there was possibly also inadequate yield strength, which refers to the maximum stress before an object’s shape permanently changes,in the pipe that burst.The evidence for this is that“the base metal yield strength of the sister elbow fitting”—which MVP admitted had a “matching pedigree”—“did not meet the yield strength requirement.”
Of note, the inadequate yield strength of the sister fitting was not in a welded seam, but rather in the base metal of the pipe itself.
Two pipes tested.
Two pipes defective.
Two different defects.
Taking things further, DNV concluded that “the tensile properties of the sister elbow fitting (base metal) do not meet the tensile requirements for MSS SP75 Grade WPHY70 steel at the time of construction as the yield strength is lower than the required value of 70 ksi; the values are also lower than the MTR value of 70.9 ksi.”
As DNV noted, MSS SP-75 requires a minimum yield strength of 70 kilopounds per square inch (ksi). The two sister elbow samples had a yield strength of 63.5 and 66.8 ksi.
In plain English, the sister elbow would be expected to permanently deform at a level of stress below what was required by industry standards, and the elbow that burst would be expected to break at a level of stress below what is required by industry standards.
Presumably, it is not good for any section of MVP to be either susceptible to permanent alteration or, worse, a straight blow out, when subjected to high pressure. The tested pipes were subject to both. It is terrifying, when one considers that MVP carries explosive methane gas—which is pressurized at up to 1,480 psig—that people live well within the pipeline’s blast zone.
And it gets worse.
DNV reported that there was a separate problem altogether: The sister elbow pipe’s fracture appearance transition temperature (FATT) value, which is the temperature at which the steel’s fracture appearance goes from being mostly flexible to mostly brittle, was “higher (poorer) than typical when compared to 2018 vintage line pipe steel.” Simply put, this means that the sister elbow DNV tested was more susceptible to cracking as compared to other pipe steel made in the same time period.
Mountain Valley Pipeline’s cover letter did not mention any of these problems.
Instead, MVP simply said that its pipeline burst on May 1 “due to a manufacturer’s defective weld,” on one pipe elbow. MVP bragged that a sister fitting “was proactively removed… to provide material for a portion of the mechanical testing aspect of the failure analysis,” but conveniently omitted the fact that the second fitting suffered from multiple manufacturing defects. Incredibly, MVP then misleadingly stated that “a single failure,” when there actually were two defective pipes (out of only two tested), was “a negligible fitting failure rate.”
That’s not even accounting for the fact that this was not the only “failure” that MVP experienced during hydrostatic testing. On June 4, a “jumper pipe” burst, sending a geyser of water hundreds of feet into the nighttime sky and then into a stream that feeds into the Roanoke River. Local residents caught the incident on video. MVP has yet to provide a full explanation of exactly what occurred.
As to the May 1 pipe burst, MVP no doubt was betting that reporters would not dig through 43 pages of highly technical material and instead would rely on MVP’s two-page “summary.” And indeed, with one notable exception, virtually all media outlets did exactly that. Many simply reprinted a story circulated by The Associated Press, which parroted a separate blogpost from MVP that noted that the report found that “there was no evidence of external or internal corrosion.”
By highlighting that DNV found no evidence of corrosion, MVP was cleverly suggesting that widespread concern about corrosion of MVP’s pipes is unfounded. However, concerns about corrosion do not focus on pipes, like the ones at issue here, that were installed and buried in 2018. Rather, the danger of corrosion focuses on the fact that most of the pipeline was installed in 2023 and 2024 using pipes that had been baking in the sun for many years after construction was halted in 2018 and thereafter by federal courts and, in one brief instance, by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality. In fact, according to federal court testimony from an MVP executive in 2018, the pipe needed to be installed within one year to avoid having the sun degrade its protective coating, which is designed to prevent corrosion.
All of this is very troubling. MVP has a long history of flouting the law, as evidenced by the fact that it has been fined millions of dollars and cited for hundreds of environmental violations as far back as 2018 and as recently as last month.
Now MVP wants those who live along the route and others concerned to accept their claim that the sister elbow fitting it gave to DNV for testing was the only pipe among the 2,500 fittings and thousands of other pipes along the route that had a “matching pedigree” with the pipe that burst, whatever that means, despite the fact that no one—not even DNV—has verified or even evaluated that claim.
MVP likewise does not want anyone to wonder why DNV produced three drafts of the report for its “customer,” MVP. Who knows what MVP asked to be added, deleted, or changed between July 23, when the first draft was completed, and August 21, when the final report was done? Nor is there any explanation as to why MVP waited until August 28 to provide the report to PHMSA.
In short, the people who live next to this polluting and dangerous nightmare, as well as the public at large, are left with many questions and very few answers. And regulatory agencies, whose job it is to protect the public, are simply asleep at the wheel.
As Russell Chisholm, co-director of the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights Coalition (POWHR), a local advocacy group, commented:
After four months of waiting, communities near the pipe rupture finally have details from MVP on what caused the pipe explosion during testing. The lab hired by MVP blames the rupture on weak steel and a defective weld. This is a pathetically predictable outcome; we know the MVP has used shoddy materials for their rushed construction job on this massive methane pipeline project. This is yet more evidence of the threat MVP poses to everyone along the route, and why the government never should have greenlit this corrupt project.
MVP continues to assault Appalachia. Week after week after week, MVP files environmental “compliance reports” that instead reveal environmental noncompliance, as sediment is deposited in once pristine and protected streams. This damage would be illegal but for the fact that Congress and the White House exempted this project from environmental laws by legislative fiat in June 2023. And just recently, MVP revealed that it is working to remedy an untold number of “slips,” a euphemism for landslides, that could rupture a pipeline that crosses 75 miles with slopes greater than 30%.
Being treated as a sacrifice zone, the people of Appalachia are left to protect themselves and each other.
It is the latest chapter in a centuries-old story.
But the people of Appalachia are strong—and they are not alone. This fight will continue until MVP is held accountable and this ruinous disaster is stopped before the unthinkable happens.
Because it is not just about tensile strength and hydrostatic testing.
It is about the people who live there. And the land they love.
And in the end, the people will win.
If the 42-inch pipeline ever explodes at 1,480 pounds per square inch of gas pressure, it will be like nothing we have ever seen.
When water pressure blew a gaping hole in the Mountain Valley Pipeline on May 1, folks living near the right of way must have had many mixed reactions—anger, fear, outrage, I told you so, even relief. Relief that it happened now before the pipeline becomes highly pressurized with methane gas.
If the 42-inch pipeline ever explodes at 1,480 pounds per square inch of gas pressure, it will be like nothing we have ever seen. Anyone nearby will likely not survive.
It will probably also mark the end of Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg’s political career because he oversees the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) whose job it is to make sure MVP gets built safely. Of course, ultimately, it is President Joe Biden who is in charge. His path to reelection, already not easy, will become much harder if MVP ruptures prior to November 5.
It’s 2024, and we know we need to get off fossil fuels ASAP. Why are we building a giant pipeline to suck a climate change accelerant out of America’s biggest deposit of contained methane?
One thing we know for sure is that MVP’s corrosion-proof coating is “no longer fit for purpose.” We don’t know it because we’re experts. We know it because we understand English and we can read. That quote is from a study done by…TC Energy, the company that wanted to build the Keystone XL pipeline (and may still try to if former President Donald Trump wins again).
The picture of the truck hauling away the ruptured section of MVP pipe is alarming, to say the least, but to the untrained eye it offers no clue as to why the steel separated. Hopefully, there will be transparency regarding the investigation and we’ll be able to trust its findings.
Although we know the pipe coating is no good, up until now we’ve had no reason to necessarily question the quality of the pipe itself. But the company that manufactured the pipe, Welspun, has some history that people should be aware of.
In what seems like a weird combination of products lines, besides manufacturing heavy steel pipe, the company also manufactures fine linen. In 2016, Target and Walmart cut ties with Welspun and hundreds of thousands of bed sheets were pulled off store shelves because they were falsely labeled and not as luxurious as advertised.
In 2010, Plains Justice released a report titled Use of Substandard Steel by the U.S. Pipeline Industry 2007 TO 2009. It begins with this: “Between 2007 and 2009 a number of pipe mills produced substandard steel pipe for U.S. pipeline companies. This pipe failed to comply with the American Petroleum Institute Grade 5L X70 standard (API 5L X70 Standard).”
A few paragraphs later: “A number of companies are implicated in producing defective pipe, but it appears that Welspun Corp. Ltd (Welspun), an Indian steel pipe manufacturer, produced most of it. For example, according to released documents, Welspun was responsible for 88% of pipe with expansion anomalies provided to Boardwalk,” which was one of the pipeline building companies.
In 2009, pipeline company Kinder Morgan sued Welspun because pipe that had been purchased was “defective and would not hold up under the required pressure load.”
So has MVP been built with bad pipe? We don’t know, and we need to find out. But regardless, what we do know is MVP’s pipe coating is shot and “no longer fit for purpose.” That alone is more than enough reason to finally throw in the towel and cut our losses on this insane boondoggle.
It’s 2024, and we know we need to get off fossil fuels ASAP. Why are we building a giant pipeline to suck a climate change accelerant out of America’s biggest deposit of contained methane? How much do we want our grandkids to hate us in coming years? How hard do we want to make their lives?
To understand how we know that MVP’s pipe coating is no good, read this. It also tells about three-year-old Delaney Tercero’s death in a hospital burn unit two days after a gas pipeline (which was minuscule compared to MVP) exploded near her home. The cause of the explosion was corrosion due to defective pipe coating. Her parents and younger sister escaped with their lives, but they’ll never get over their loss.
The Mountain Valley Pipeline uses pipe with illegal and unsafe corrosion-proof coating that’s “no longer fit for purpose.”
The builders of the Mountain Valley Pipeline are bringing frivolous multi-million dollar SLAPP suits—or strategic lawsuits against public participation—against pipeline protesters in an attempt to bully them into being quiet.
If only they would slap one here, because this vastly underreported coating issue really needs a lot more publicity. But that’s precisely why I doubt that they will. They don’t want anyone, least of all any real investigative reporters, to focus on their pipes’ serious coating problems.
One thing is clear, MVP has been burying, and continues to bury, illegal, dangerous pipe. A study was done which proves that this is not debatable.
The people who are forced to live within MVP’s blast zone should not have to endure the daily stress of knowing it wasn’t built safely.
Bill McKibben hit the nail on the head when he wrote that the “transition away from fossil fuels” language agreed to at COP28 could be either meaningful or meaningless depending on whether or not it is acted upon. This is similarly true for a rule written into the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations and published in the Federal Register, which is, or at least should be, a million times more legally binding than anything that came out of Dubai. That rule says that pipelines MUST be protected from external corrosion by having a protective coating which, among other things, is “sufficiently ductile to resist cracking.”
The rule exists because long sections of pipe flex a great deal between the time they are manufactured and coated at the plant and when they finally come to rest in a ditch. If the corrosion-proof coating on the pipe is not “sufficiently ductile” (flexible) to also flex when the pipe does, then it will crack. Once a crack in the coating opens up, it creates a pathway for moisture to come in contact with the steel and begin corroding the pipe. Corrosion is a leading cause of pipeline explosions. Controlling corrosion is of particular concern regarding MVP because of its huge size (42-inch diameter) and the extremely high pressure (1,480 pounds per square inch, or psi,) it will be operating under.
In 2018 three-year-old Delaney Tercero was badly burned, as were her parents and younger sister, when a pipeline exploded near their home. Delaney died two days later after what must have been an agonizing ordeal in a hospital burn unit. The pipeline that killed her exploded because of corrosion due to defective pipe coating. It was a 10-inch pipeline. MVP is a 42-inch pipeline. It also has defective pipe coating.
On January 30, 2024 there was a gas pipeline explosion in Oklahoma. It shot flames 500 feet into the air. The fire could be seen from 36 miles away, and it took hours to bring it under control. It started because of corrosion in an 8-inch pipeline and is thought to have migrated to a 24-inch pipeline based on the intensity of the fire. MVP is a 42-inch pipeline.
A 24-inch gas pipeline explosion in Oklahoma in January 2024 sends flames 500 feet into the air. MVP is a 42-inch pipeline.
In July 2023, a gas pipeline exploded near Strasburg, Virginia, next to Interstate 81, shutting down traffic in both directions for hours. It was a 26-inch pipeline operating at 777 psi. MVP is a 42 inch pipeline that will operate at 1,480 psi.
Although language was inserted into last summer’s debt deal that allowed MVP to steamroll the normal permitting process, in no way did any of that language negate the “sufficiently ductile to resist cracking” rule, which has been on the books for over 50 years. Even MVP’s own attorney said that the debt deal dealt specifically and only with permitting issues.
The key to understanding why MVP pipe is illegal lies in a study reported on in the Jan/Feb 2020 issue of Corrosion Management (CM), a publication of the Institute of Corrosion. The article (on p. 16) is not very long nor is it difficult to understand, although there may be a word or two that requires googling. Everyone should read it and print a copy for future reference, before it becomes harder to access. To do so you might have to sign up for a free 30-day subscription to Scribd. The wording in the article and the results of the study make clear that MVP pipe coating has serious, unacceptable flaws.
It should be noted who undertook the study and wrote the article. It wasn’t anti-fossil fuel climate activists. Participants and contributors included TC Energy, the company that wanted to build the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline, and Welspun, the company that manufactured and coated pipe for both KXL and MVP. One of the authors was James Ferguson, who worked for TC Energy (formerly Trans Canada) for over 18 years and who, at the time of the study, was the director of KXL Technical Services.
The point of the study was to determine how effective applying whitewash to KXL pipes was in terms of protecting the pipe coating from ultraviolet (UV) exposure, meaning the harmful effects of the sun. Most fossil fuel pipe, including KXL and MVP pipe, is coated with a greenish fusion bonded epoxy (FBE). FBE is, and is meant to be, flexible or ductile after it is applied and dries. However, exposure to the sun will reduce that flexibility over time and the coating can become brittle and crack. The National Association of Pipe Coating Applicators (NAPCA) recommends that FBE not be exposed to the sun for more than six months.
The beginning of the CM article has a paragraph with the heading “Effects of Ultraviolet Exposure on Fusion Bond Epoxy Coatings.” It says that “previous studies of exposed weathering of FBE coating had identified that UV exposure could have a serious deleterious effect on the inherent physical properties of the coating. This phenomenon is common to all FBE coatings that are primarily designed only for below ground service.” Over time, UV exposure will give the glossy green coating applied at the plant more of a chalky green look. Prolonged UV exposure will lead to “a noticeable reduction in the coating thickness” and cause all FBE coatings to “struggle to retain their original flexibility.” The change from glossy to chalky “clearly is accompanied by an embrittlement of the coating” and “reduction of flexibility performance.”
After KXL pipe was manufactured, the pipeline came up against all kinds of opposition for numerous very good reasons. And so it got delayed for years and was ultimately killed near the end of the Obama administration. Because TC Energy was aware of the problems UV creates for FBE coating, twice during that time period the company applied whitewash to the pipe to act as a sort of sunscreen. (It’s important to note here, and then remember, that whitewash was NOT applied to MVP pipe during the six to seven years it has sat in pipe yards and along the pipeline right of way. Dated satellite images can confirm this, as can photographs taken by frontline pipeline opponents.)
Regarding MVP, Buttigieg could rightly point to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) as the reason it is being built. But it is on the secretary and a department under his control to make sure MVP is built safely and according to legal rules and regulations.
After former President Donald Trump was elected in 2016, Keystone XL came back to life, which is what prompted the study of its whitewashed pipe. They wanted to show that the whitewash had protected the FBE coating well enough that the pipe was still usable. But that’s not what they found.
The study tested three different groups of KXL pipe, which was generally stacked five layers high. One group included pipe below the top layer. Those pipes weren’t whitewashed, but they also were shaded from the sun by the pipe above them. The coating on those pipes tested OK.
The second group of pipe was from the top layer that had been whitewashed twice, once after 18-24 months of UV exposure and again four to five years later.
The third group involved the last few feet at the ends of top layer pipe. Those last few feet were not whitewashed so as not to cover up stenciling and markings. Those top layer pipe ends received no protection from the sun, and they best represent the coating on MVP pipe.
In eight out of ten tests, the whitewashed pipe failed to attain acceptable adhesion ratings. The non-whitewashed pipe ends “exhibited complete failures” regarding the adhesion test. In addition, the coating thickness on the non-whitewashed pipe ends had been reduced by more than 50%.
Another way to evaluate how well pipe coating will resist corrosion is to perform a catholic disbondment (CD) test. “The CD results of the non-whitewashed pipe ends exposed to UV were deemed total failures,” the study found.
“The flexibility tests were all deemed failures” on both the whitewashed and non-whitewashed pipe. All the flexibility tests “demonstrated similar results of cracking within the coating” even after they reduced the severity of the flexibility test three times from 2.5 degrees to 2.0 degrees to, finally, as little as 1.0 degree.
The first sentence under “Observations” states, “All non-whitewashed pipe that was exposed to continuous UV at the storage site” was “deemed no longer fit for purpose.” Even for whitewashed pipe, the flexibility of the underlying coating was “adversely affected to the point where it was no longer acceptable.”
In 2018 at an oil and gas forum in Canada, a KXL pipeline manager said that defective coating like this is not something that can be remedied in the field but instead it requires shipping the pipe back to the plant for proper stripping, cleaning, and re-coating. This short video shows the elaborate process undertaken to properly apply FBE coating.
The slipshod method that MVP is applying to its degraded pipe coating is wholly inadequate. The “no longer fit for purpose” phrase in the Corrosion Management article basically means that the pipe has a bad case of terminal skin cancer, which is not something MVP is going to remedy with its sporadic paintbrush-applied Band-Aids.
MVP’s band aid solution; the seven-year-old coating date, 2016, is barely visible.(Photo: POWHR/Mountain Valley Watch)
This coating problem is far from unique to MVP. Since 2010 the fossil fuel industry has built 70,000 miles of pipelines, and they have plans to build another 70,000 miles. Most of those pipelines have been and will be fought against, resulting in pipe sitting above ground for extensive periods of time instead of getting quickly buried.
Right now pipeline giant Williams is building the Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project in Pennsylvania. It will lead to a significant increase in fracking in that state, which the majority of Pennsylvanians say they don’t want. Williams is also building the Louisiana Energy Gateway (LEG) project, which will increase gas flow to the LNG export terminals that the people living along the Gulf Coast are trying to shut down. Both REAE and LEG are being built with leftover pipe from the long dead Constitution Pipeline in New York. That pipe was manufactured and coated 10 years ago, and, like MVP pipe, its coating is shot.
But apparently and naturally, after sitting out in the sun for a decade, the pipe was cheap to buy. Cheap enough that it made economic sense for Williams to ship it all the way to Louisiana from New York. In fact, a Williams executive admitted that acquiring the surplus pipe helped keep costs down, making those pipeline projects possible.
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg was recently in the news during the one-year anniversary of the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. He said his department was doing all it could to prevent a similar disaster from happening again. He blamed Congress for not passing helpful legislation.
Regarding MVP, Buttigieg could rightly point to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) as the reason it is being built. But it is on the secretary and a department under his control to make sure MVP is built safely and according to legal rules and regulations. That’s the whole reason that PHMSA, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, exists. It’s up to Buttigieg and PHMSA to enforce the “sufficiently ductile to resist cracking” rule. It’s up to them to publicly explain why they are disregarding the Corrosion Management study. The fact that now, in his fourth year on the job, Buttigieg still has not even filled the top job at PHMSA makes one ask just how seriously is he regarding pipeline safety.
MVP would never get built near Manchin’s or Buttigieg’s homes. The people who are forced to live within MVP’s blast zone should not have to endure the daily stress of knowing it wasn’t built safely.
MVP and government regulators may argue that there are ways to detect corrosion and other problems before they cause harm. Yet the biggest climate disaster of 2022 was caused by corrosion and created by the same company, Equitrans, that is building MVP. That huge methane leak occurred just 10 days after the site had been inspected and no problem was detected. It took almost two weeks for Equitrans to bring the leak under control.
In 2008 five people were injured and two homes were destroyed when a Williams gas pipeline exploded near Appomattox, Virginia. It was a 30-inch pipeline operating at about half the pressure MVP will operate at. The cause of the explosion was external corrosion due to defective coating that had been compromised by rocks. An inspection undertaken shortly before the pipe exploded did not identify the corroded section of pipe.
MVP has a rock problem, too.(Photo: POWHR/Mountain Valley Watch)
The Pennsylvania attorney general has charged Equitrans with crimes regarding a 2018 gas explosion that severely burned a four-year-old boy and his parents, killed their dog, and destroyed their home. The explosion resulted from a leaking Equitrans gas well that the company knew was leaking somewhere, but they never bothered to determine exactly where. Equitrans even had a protocol in place to help prevent corrosion at the well, but they didn’t follow it. One Equitrans employee testified that wells were often not serviced for budgetary reasons. And after the explosion, Equitrans didn’t even conduct the legally required investigation to determine the cause.
If Secretary Buttigieg and PHMSA are going to allow 42-inch MVP to come online with degraded pipe coating, they need to be asked, repeatedly, how they square that decision with the Corrosion Management article and the KXL study. And if someday another person meets Delaney Tercero’s fate because of a MVP explosion, Buttigieg and regulators at PHMSA can blame Equitrans and Manchin… but the fault will be theirs too.